Is now a good time to stock up on Matt Kemp rookies?

[KLARNOLD]

Matt Kemp is predicting a 50 HR/50 Steal season. Should we buy into his prediction?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-brown_matt_kemp_dodgers_50_homers_steals_club_022212

 

[cmnkb8]

It's possible, but improbable. I think buying a bridge is a better investment

 

[JzWand]

I dont see that happening.

 

[homerun28aa]

If he was the first to do it, you'd make serious bank.

 

[jaydub]

As a Dodger fan I'd of course love to see it happen but I really really doubt it's possible mostly given the lineup around Kemp. With his success last year he's not going to see the pitches this year that he got last year unless Ethier, Loney, etc behind him hit well enough to force teams to pitch to him. I think you'll see his walk rate go up which might help the stolen bases but 50 homers I don't see it. For comparison sake I think you'll see a large drop off for Braun as well with Prince no longer hitting behind him.

 

[miguelcabrera]

he wont get 50 steals but he will break the homerun record

 

[Topnotchsy]

I don't think there's much of a shot that he goes 50/50, but for guys like him and Jacoby Ellsbury, if they can simply replicate last year's performances, I believe there is some nice upside to their cards. I don't think the market has bought in in either case that last season was the new standard for them, and kind of assumes that they'll regress a bit.

 

[nborton]

I'm going to say no one hits 50 HRs. That's going to be the hard part of the 50/50.

Shoot, the 50 steals is difficult as well for a power hitter. He had 195 hits total last year. 119 were singles. 119 singles plus 74 walks gives him 193 chances to get a steal (I'm discounting stealing 3rd since it's rare). At that rate he'd have to steal 26% of the time on base, and not get caught. That's pretty high for a power hitter.

He did steal at the 26% rate last season, but he got caught 11 times. He'd have to run 61 times, and get caught 11 to get the 50 he's claiming. Which ups it to 32% of the time on base he is running.

As a comparison Gardner and Crisp had 49 steals last year (closest to the 50 mark). Gardner had to run 39.2% of the time he was on base to get 49 steals. While Crisp came in at 41.1% of the time on base.

Obviously, the more hits and walks you get the more opportunity you have. However, many of Kemp's hits aren't going to provide opportunities to steal.

I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Hollywood]

Two things he left from the article. 1. He called 40-40 before last season the same way and everyone scoffed. 2. Last year was an all time great season. No one in MLB history has ever gone .320/110/40/110/40 He did .323/115/39/126/40 with the team not playing a Sept game vs Wash so they finished with 161. Take it from someone who has watched more of his games than anyone on the board, he is capable of 50/50. Depends on Ethier staying healthy and hitting for some power to give him protection, or he is going to get walked all ze time. Hope it is like after Pujols' rookie season when you could buy a BC auto for under $300 or just about. Proved it wasn't fluke, and boy did they jump. Just a few people regret not buying then. The fact he only has one rc auto and it's chrome, means there should be a bunch of room for growth still.

 

[nborton]

Two things he left from the article. 1. He called 40-40 before last season the same way and everyone scoffed. 2. Last year was an all time great season. No one in MLB history has ever gone .320/110/40/110/40 He did .323/115/39/126/40 with the team not playing a Sept game vs Wash so they finished with 161. Take it from someone who has watched more of his games than anyone on the board, he is capable of 50/50. Depends on Ethier staying healthy and hitting for some power to give him protection, or he is going to get walked all ze time. Hope it is like after Pujols' rookie season when you could buy a BC auto for under $300 or just about. Proved it wasn't fluke, and boy did they jump. Just a few people regret not buying then. The fact he only has one rc auto and it's chrome, means there should be a bunch of room for growth still.

I think he's the favorite in the NL for the MVP, but calling a 50/50 season is pretty bold no matter who you are. No one has done it. That alone should make him think twice. The reason it's so difficult is the more power you hit for the fewer chances you have to steal.

Not only that, but the 50 HRs is going to be tough. Based on his career trajectory since he has been playing full time these are his numbers:

HR Percentage:
08: 176 Hits, 18 HRs = 10.2% of hits are HRs
09: 180 Hits, 26 HRs = 14.4% of hits are HRs
10: 150 Hits, 28 HRs = 18.6% of hits are HRs
11: 195 Hits, 39 HRs = 20.0% of hits are HRs

Lets say he improves again, gets 200 hits, and hits HRs at a rate of 22% (which is higher than his improvement from 10 to 11). He would end up with 44 HRs.

To hit 50 he would need to have 200 hits, and 25% be HRs. Is it totally impossible? No. But I think unlikely based off of his career trajectory.

That said I still would take him either 1-2 in any fantasy draft. He's going to be a monster player this year.