Is there simply too much young talent?

[Topnotchsy]

Bill James has mentioned (amongst others) that there is more young talent in baseball now than ever before in history. I've been thinking about this, and wonder if it is related (though definitely not the only cause) to the fact that prices on prospects and rookies seem to have been low recently. My thought is that there are so many great young players that there's almost "too much" for the market to handle, and prices are suffering. I made a couple of lists (pitchers and hitters) and every player on the list has a shot of being great, and most of them have already shown real major league success. (I am sure I missed some guys as well.)

edit: Note I am referring to the prices of prospect cards, not prospects.

A list of young stars in the majors and top prospects include (26 and under)

Miguel Cabrera
David Wright
Grady Sizemore
Hanley Ramirez
Ryan Braun
Prince Fielder
Nick Markakis
Brian McCann
Joe Mauer
Matt Kemp
Evan Longoria
Troy Tulowitzki
Stephen Drew
Ryan Zimmerman
Robinson Cano
Justin Pedroia
BJ Upton
Justin Upton
Jay Bruce
Matt Weiters

Pitchers:

Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Scott Kazmir
Joba Chamberlain
Cole Hamels
Chad Billingsley
Clayton Kershaw
Jon Danks
Matt Cain
Yovanni Gallardo
David Price
Jon Lester
Matt Garza
Chris Volstad

Pretty crazy!!

Thoughts?

 

[wolfmanalfredo]

Bill James has mentioned (amongst others) that there is more young talent in baseball now than ever before in history. I've been thinking about this, and wonder if it is related (though definitely not the only cause) to the fact that prices on prospects and rookies seem to have been low recently. My thought is that there are so many great young players that there's almost "too much" for the market to handle, and prices are suffering. I made a couple of lists (pitchers and hitters) and every player on the list has a shot of being great, and most of them have already shown real major league success. (I am sure I missed some guys as well.)

A list of young stars in the majors and top prospects include (26 and under)

Miguel Cabrera
David Wright
Grady Sizemore
Hanley Ramirez
Ryan Braun
Prince Fielder
Nick Markakis
Brian McCann
Joe Mauer
Matt Kemp
Evan Longoria
Troy Tulowitzki
Stephen Drew
Ryan Zimmerman
Robinson Cano
Justin Pedroia
BJ Upton
Justin Upton
Jay Bruce
Matt Weiters

Pitchers:

Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Scott Kazmir
Joba Chamberlain
Cole Hamels
Chad Billingsley
Clayton Kershaw
Jon Danks
Matt Cain
Yovanni Gallardo
David Price
Jon Lester
Matt Garza
Chris Volstad

Pretty crazy!!

Thoughts?

Wow, is Justin Pedroia related to Dustin Pedroia???

 

[Penno]

I think some of the answer is money. Players don't have to stay in the game as long as they used to because they had their paydays. Also relating to money, you can always bring up a minor league player for league minimum, so your seeing more young stars.

I'd like to think that scouting is better than it used to be due to ease of communication and the sharing of information. It's also easier for fans to keep track of players on the internet, both minor league and major league, so it might seem their are more stars.

Just a few theories, nothing to earth shattering however.

 

[totran]

based on your list and some other names i have in my head i would say no
i use the yankees because i am most familiar with them

most of the stars jeter,posada,mariano,pettite,matsui[maybe a few others im forgetting] are entering the end of their careers this is just one team in the majors.
if you went team by team and listed all the star players who are injury prone or aging out your new list would far surpass the one you posted.

as for talent being better it's not bad for baseball or prospect prices if the bar has been raised a bit. as milestones are reached key card prices will still rise. if anything we are in a great position to reap the benefits of new player talent because we will have the cards of those players who will break the records.

 

[Jurgy25]

Bill James has mentioned (amongst others) that there is more young talent in baseball now than ever before in history. I've been thinking about this, and wonder if it is related (though definitely not the only cause) to the fact that prices on prospects and rookies seem to have been low recently. My thought is that there are so many great young players that there's almost "too much" for the market to handle, and prices are suffering. I made a couple of lists (pitchers and hitters) and every player on the list has a shot of being great, and most of them have already shown real major league success. (I am sure I missed some guys as well.)

A list of young stars in the majors and top prospects include (26 and under)

Miguel Cabrera
David Wright

Grady Sizemore
Hanley Ramirez
Ryan Braun
Prince Fielder
Nick Markakis
Brian McCann
Joe Mauer
Matt Kemp
Evan Longoria
Troy Tulowitzki
Stephen Drew
Ryan Zimmerman
Robinson Cano
Justin Pedroia
BJ Upton
Justin Upton
Jay Bruce
Matt Weiters

Pitchers:

Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Scott Kazmir
Joba Chamberlain
Cole Hamels
Chad Billingsley
Clayton Kershaw
Jon Danks
Matt Cain
Yovanni Gallardo
David Price
Jon Lester
Matt Garza
Chris Volstad

Pretty crazy!!

Thoughts?

Wow, is Justin Pedroia related to Dustin Pedroia???

He's the long lost twin brother.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

There are about as many players on your list as there are teams. Seems about right to me.

 

[Benson]

Some of those guys will flame out and in 10 years we will remember them with the Kevin Maas' and Todd Van Poppel's of the world. Many others will become nothing more than average major leaguers. I think you could go to any time in the past 30 years and make a list like that based on their stats from the first three years or so. I will agree with you in that players' salaries that are basically slotted for the first three years, are causing some teams to bring these guys up rather than keeping or signing a more expensive veteran.

 

[brouthercard]

The talent has always been there.

There is simply too much hype and too much internet information.

If in any way you are implying that everyone on this list is on their way to having a hall of fame caliber career, you and Bill James are mistaken.

Let's review this list ten years from now and see how accurate it is.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I guess I wasn't clear. I was referring to card prices, which have been down the last year or so. I know the recession was part of the issue, but looking at all the players I think that one of the reasons prices are lower is because there are simply so many options of young stars.

 

[Topnotchsy]

The talent has always been there.

There is simply too much hype and too much internet information.

If in any way you are implying that everyone on this list is on their way to having a hall of fame caliber career, you and Bill James are mistaken.

Let's review this list ten years from now and see how accurate it is.

I fail to understand you choose to simply repeat this stance every time a discussion about young players are mentioned. I never once mentioned the HOF, never once even mentioned a comparison with a HOF player. All I said (paraphrasing Bill James, but I agree as well) is that the amount of young talent today is arguably greater than it ever has been. While some of these guys will flame out, most of these guys have already put up impressive numbers for a couple of seasons, and I can not recall a time when so many young players were doing so well. Why not jest chat about that.

 

[rico08]

We're all witnesses to a changing of the guard, if you will. The players who dominated the 80's and 90's are either retired or at the very tail end of their illustrious careers. Even the game itself has changed and I think we're in the midst of Major League Baseball's identity crisis.

And the fact of the matter is, a lot of the guys you mentioned aren't even the faces of their own franchises. It is all about exposure. Once we see fans, die-hard collectors, and casual collectors "growing up" watching the guys you mentioned I'm positive card prices will catch up.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

The '90s ended 10 years ago, nobody's dominated since?

Its always healthy for the media to drum up something on the new guys whether its true or not.

But many of the players who dominated over the past fifteen years dominated because of steroids. Many people just want to forget about these guys and are desperate to start over.

Although I don't think there's more talent today then ever before, it would be impossible to tell if there actually was too much talent at any given time. Talent is a comparative thing, something compared amongst peers. Only the most talented of the talented get noticed. If everyone is talented everybody seems the same - and nobody notices or appreciates it.

We're all witnesses to a changing of the guard, if you will. The players who dominated the 80's and 90's are either retired or at the very tail end of their illustrious careers. Even the game itself has changed and I think we're in the midst of Major League Baseball's identity crisis.

And the fact of the matter is, a lot of the guys you mentioned aren't even the faces of their own franchises. It is all about exposure. Once we see fans, die-hard collectors, and casual collectors "growing up" watching the guys you mentioned I'm positive card prices will catch up.

 

[jdfoxtrot79]

The talent has always been there.

There is simply too much hype and too much internet information.

If in any way you are implying that everyone on this list is on their way to having a hall of fame caliber career, you and Bill James are mistaken.

Let's review this list ten years from now and see how accurate it is.

Who said anything about HOF status? I havent seen Miggy on this thread....

 

[ronfromfresno]

The '90s ended 10 years ago, nobody's dominated since?

Its always healthy for the media to drum up something on the new guys whether its true or not.

But many of the players who dominated over the past fifteen years dominated because of steroids. Many people just want to forget about these guys and are desperate to start over.

Although I don't think there's more talent today then ever before, it would be impossible to tell if there actually was too much talent at any given time. Talent is a comparative thing, something compared amongst peers. Only the most talented of the talented get noticed. If everyone is talented everybody seems the same - and nobody notices or appreciates it.

We're all witnesses to a changing of the guard, if you will. The players who dominated the 80's and 90's are either retired or at the very tail end of their illustrious careers. Even the game itself has changed and I think we're in the midst of Major League Baseball's identity crisis.

And the fact of the matter is, a lot of the guys you mentioned aren't even the faces of their own franchises. It is all about exposure. Once we see fans, die-hard collectors, and casual collectors "growing up" watching the guys you mentioned I'm positive card prices will catch up.

Same talent influx happened in the late '80's and early '90's with guys, who are still playing, like Ken Griffey Jr, Greg Maddux, Ivan Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson and many others broke into the league forcing older stars out of the headlines like, Rickey Henderson, George Brett, Ryne Sandberg, Robin Yount amoung others.....it's the cycle of life in baseball, that's why every era has a group of stars for us to cherish.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

I understand and definitely agree about the baseball life cycle, but the last guy to break into the MLB on your list was something like fifteen years ago - or the length of an entire solid career.

Same talent influx happened in the late '80's and early '90's with guys, who are still playing, like Ken Griffey Jr, Greg Maddux, Ivan Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson and many others broke into the league forcing older stars out of the headlines like, Rickey Henderson, George Brett, Ryne Sandberg, Robin Yount amoung others.....it's the cycle of life in baseball, that's why every era has a group of stars for us to cherish.

 

[nborton]

The '90s ended 10 years ago, nobody's dominated since?

Its always healthy for the media to drum up something on the new guys whether its true or not.

But many of the players who dominated over the past fifteen years dominated because of steroids. Many people just want to forget about these guys and are desperate to start over.

Although I don't think there's more talent today then ever before, it would be impossible to tell if there actually was too much talent at any given time. Talent is a comparative thing, something compared amongst peers. Only the most talented of the talented get noticed. If everyone is talented everybody seems the same - and nobody notices or appreciates it.

We're all witnesses to a changing of the guard, if you will. The players who dominated the 80's and 90's are either retired or at the very tail end of their illustrious careers. Even the game itself has changed and I think we're in the midst of Major League Baseball's identity crisis.

And the fact of the matter is, a lot of the guys you mentioned aren't even the faces of their own franchises. It is all about exposure. Once we see fans, die-hard collectors, and casual collectors "growing up" watching the guys you mentioned I'm positive card prices will catch up.

Same talent influx happened in the late '80's and early '90's with guys, who are still playing, like Ken Griffey Jr, Greg Maddux, Ivan Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson and many others broke into the league forcing older stars out of the headlines like, Rickey Henderson, George Brett, Ryne Sandberg, Robin Yount amoung others.....it's the cycle of life in baseball, that's why every era has a group of stars for us to cherish.

I was going to say the same thing. It seems to go in waves in most sports. Once a big time star makes it, it's going to be next to impossible for some young gun to try and take his spot on the roster. So either a) he never gets called up, or b) the teams intentionally don't draft that position heavily knowing they are set for a while.

Indirectly, I also think we are going into a period in baseball that's going to be more athletic than in the past. In that, I think the game will be more about speed, and pitching than power.

 

[brouthercard]

The talent has always been there.

There is simply too much hype and too much internet information.

If in any way you are implying that everyone on this list is on their way to having a hall of fame caliber career, you and Bill James are mistaken.

Let's review this list ten years from now and see how accurate it is.

I fail to understand you choose to simply repeat this stance every time a discussion about young players are mentioned. I never once mentioned the HOF, never once even mentioned a comparison with a HOF player. All I said (paraphrasing Bill James, but I agree as well) is that the amount of young talent today is arguably greater than it ever has been. While some of these guys will flame out, most of these guys have already put up impressive numbers for a couple of seasons, and I can not recall a time when so many young players were doing so well. Why not jest chat about that.

If you are refering to card prices, I feel that the market can always bear what talent is out there, however much there is. It always comes down to the bottom line- how much money can be made from the cards of the talent that is out there on the playing field. If someone gets hot, you will see incredible jumps in prices overnight.

I would like to argue that rather than there being too much talent out there and subsequently a dilution of collectors dollars for those players cards, I feel, outside of the economy, that investing/prospecting in prospects/young players has become a more refined art/business now. Collectors are growing/realizing and become more educated based on history that most of the time a card is going to be most valuable sometimes even before a player plays a single game in the majors. There have been so many "failed" can't miss prospects over the last few years of the golden age of prospecting that many people feel that those sure things in the past may actually not be that great of an investment anymore. Perhaps we are gearing towards a market change of more people starting to wait and see before they make large investments into so and so's gold refractor auto rather than paying huge dollar amount right off the bat.

I mean, the list is long, and by no means do I imply that these players cards will never reach their previous peak hype prices, but how many investors have been burned or FEEL like they've been burned by paying horrendously high prices for Ian Stewart, Delmon Young, Lastings Milledge, Alex Gordon, Jon Papelbon, Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, Rickie Weeks, Brandon Wood, Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Ryan Zimmerman, etc. etc. I mean, you feel like you lost ALOT of money investing in these guys at their peak prices, why in the world would you continue to put TONS of money in guys who might be the next big thing when you've tried and haven't been satisfied with the results. I mean, you can only be burned so many times before you put your life savings into another player again.

And for smart prospectors, i'm not referring to you. You sold when their prices were high. The guys being burned are the guys who did pay those high prices and are frankly disappointed with the offers they get for the cards today. Man, I paid $350 for that delmon xfractor auto and now you'll only give me fifty bucks? I mean, that in itself would make me think twice before paying a high price for a prospect again.

 

[ronfromfresno]

I understand and definitely agree about the baseball life cycle, but the last guy to break into the MLB on your list was something like fifteen years ago - or the length of an entire solid career.

Same talent influx happened in the late '80's and early '90's with guys, who are still playing, like Ken Griffey Jr, Greg Maddux, Ivan Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson and many others broke into the league forcing older stars out of the headlines like, Rickey Henderson, George Brett, Ryne Sandberg, Robin Yount amoung others.....it's the cycle of life in baseball, that's why every era has a group of stars for us to cherish.

The fact that most of these guys are still playing, and considered stars 15, 20 years later, is the point I'm trying to make. The cycle of stars, or the appearence of an abundance of talent is usually when the stars are on the way out. Like my example the guys who entered in the late '70's or even '60's and early '80's were on the way out when the new young guns in the late '80's and early '90's took over. There haven't been as many big infusions of great young talent since then, until now when the new wave in the cycle is upon us, just like there wasn't a huge influx of great tallent from the early '80's until the late '80's.