Jeff Niemann

[subject to change]

Frankly I think its the rays fanbase stinks. Other than Longoria who sells well. David Price is going for his 8th win tonight and his cards have been fairly stagnant as well

I think you nailed it. It seems to me that prospectors will buy and hype anyone and then tend to dump before/as they hit the bigs. So once the prospectors are out of the pool you're really just dealing with team/player collectors save for the transcendent guys like Longoria, Pujols etc.

I used to buy my Jays prospect/RC cards when they were released. No longer. The Jays have a small but dedicated collector base. It's much easier fighting those guys for Travis Snider et al cards rather than going head to head with the guys who are just going to dump them when they get hot.

Bingo. I have always compared prospecting to a game of hot potato. I'm sure quite a few here make some very nice profits while a player rises through the minors or has a big debut, but after that initial hype, the collecting base for most teams simply will not maintain those prices. I have been able to add some great cards over the last few years of 'fallen' prospects like Neil Walker that were well out of my price range at release for no more than a few bucks.

 

[leatherman]

In the last 6 years, name a prospect whose prices spiked more after achieving sustained success in the majors than the prospects that have a monster minor league season.

Lincecum qualifies.

No, he doesn't.

Lincecum base chromes currently sell for $150-175. Upon release, they were selling in the $60-75 range. They went up to about $100-125 when he was dominating the minors before he got called up. So there is really only about a 50% increase from the time he was called up until now.

On the other hand, Mike Stanton, Madison Bumgarner, Jay Bruce, Brandon Wood, and the like all saw HUGE gains during their standout minor league seasons, on the order of 400-500% or more as the hype train rolled along.

So, what I am looking for are the prospects that increased 400% or more after they were called up, and did it because of their sustained success in the majors (2 seasons or so), not because they had a hot streak when they were called up, or threw a no-hitter.

Ethier qualifies for sure, but I'm not sure about Hanley. I don't remember what his base chrome autos were selling for when he got called up, but I don't think they were selling for less than $50, and they only sell for about $150 now. Ryan Howard is another one whose sustained success in the majors caused his prices to at least quadruple when compared to his callup prices. Braun and Longoria don't qualify, as their base chrome autos are only maybe 50-100% more now than they were when they were called up.

Maybe you all just don't get the point I'm trying to make, which is that a successful season or two in the big leagues doesn't make you near as much money as it does when your minor league player has a big season. If you are holding onto rookie base chrome autos of major leaguers who become all star caliber players (like Niemann), don't expect them to see the types of increases you see when a minor leaguer has a season with 30 HRs or an ERA under 2.00.

 

[Jaypers]

In the last 6 years, name a prospect whose prices spiked more after achieving sustained success in the majors than the prospects that have a monster minor league season.

Lincecum qualifies.

No, he doesn't.

Lincecum base chromes currently sell for $150-175. Upon release, they were selling in the $60-75 range. They went up to about $100-125 when he was dominating the minors before he got called up. So there is really only about a 50% increase from the time he was called up until now.

You didn't say we were talking about present sales. I sold a Lincecum base Chrome auto for $250 a few months ago. That meets the criteria you previously stated.

 

[Topnotchsy]

In the last 6 years, name a prospect whose prices spiked more after achieving sustained success in the majors than the prospects that have a monster minor league season.

Lincecum qualifies.

No, he doesn't.

Lincecum base chromes currently sell for $150-175. Upon release, they were selling in the $60-75 range. They went up to about $100-125 when he was dominating the minors before he got called up. So there is really only about a 50% increase from the time he was called up until now.

On the other hand, Mike Stanton, Madison Bumgarner, Jay Bruce, Brandon Wood, and the like all saw HUGE gains during their standout minor league seasons, on the order of 400-500% or more as the hype train rolled along.

So, what I am looking for are the prospects that increased 400% or more after they were called up, and did it because of their sustained success in the majors (2 seasons or so), not because they had a hot streak when they were called up, or threw a no-hitter.

Ethier qualifies for sure, but I'm not sure about Hanley. I don't remember what his base chrome autos were selling for when he got called up, but I don't think they were selling for less than $50, and they only sell for about $150 now. Ryan Howard is another one whose sustained success in the majors caused his prices to at least quadruple when compared to his callup prices. Braun and Longoria don't qualify, as their base chrome autos are only maybe 50-100% more now than they were when they were called up.

Maybe you all just don't get the point I'm trying to make, which is that a successful season or two in the big leagues doesn't make you near as much money as it does when your minor league player has a big season. If you are holding onto rookie base chrome autos of major leaguers who become all star caliber players (like Niemann), don't expect them to see the types of increases you see when a minor leaguer has a season with 30 HRs or an ERA under 2.00.

Hanley only hit $50 when he won ROY. They were less before then. No time to list now, but I think you may be surprised how many guys are out there.

Howard's BB Auto was $15 in the Minors and hit $800 for an extreme example.

 

[jcmint]

David Wright Gold ref's were 150.00 before he came up.
Hanleys bc autos were below 50.00 for sure.

Theres great examples on both sides of the fence not just the minors. Theres a ton of room for growth when they get called up. For those who have the rocks to pony up at that time can make some real money. When Pujols got called up his rookies were a fraction of what they are now. Theres just a ton of examples.

Chase Utley is another guy.

Robbie Canos auto from 03 heritage was 10-15 when he was in the minors. The go for 125 now.

Nelson Cruz

Pedroia

 

[southeastjerome]

He has been rock solid all year and is a very good pitcher. I think one of the reasons he does not get any love is because people dont consider him "cool" and he never had crazy hype in the minors.

It also doesnt help that he looks like freakshow from harold and kumar go to white castle.

 

[andyduke86]

Pretty much everyone mentioned is a legit superstar or top-10 player. Obviously those guys have potential for growth once they reach the major. However, for players like Jeff who are merely above average or even all-star caliber players, there is not that much growth usually.