Julio Teheran - FY chrome v. 2nd year BC auto Poll

[abravesfan]

With the announcement Teheran will be a chrome auto in 2010 it seems to bring up a predicament for those holding some 09 chrome cards. History has shown collectors prefer second year BC autos to first year chrome parallels (see Heyward, etc), so the 09 BC cards probably have somewhat less upside then they did before. With that said, do you think the flooding of the market with 1000+ autos will hurt the current 2009 chrome prices? Note this could also apply to others in the set like Castro.

To quantify it, a gold refractor just went for $81, do you think the release of 2010 bowman will do to the value of the card a few weeks after release (Teheran's performance notwithstanding)?

 

[dchurg]

base chromes still the way to go

heywards went from ~1-2 bucks to 15 per

you will not see a 2nd year auto increase 15x its original value

 

[bballcardkid]

Option 4. It's the new trend unfortunately. Dump while you can.

 

[Jaypers]

FYI - that was my Gold Ref.

 

[200lbhockeyplayer]

base chromes still the way to go

heywards went from ~1-2 bucks to 15 per

you will not see a 2nd year auto increase 15x its original value

Ditto.

 

[pigskincardboard]

Honestly, I think that in the long-term, base chrome will bounce back reaaaal hard.

10 years form now, when Heyward's signed roughly 8 TRILLION autographs, the value of an autograph will lose it's appeal.

People will return to the rookie card.

 

[bmc398]

Honestly, I think that in the long-term, base chrome will bounce back reaaaal hard.

10 years form now, when Heyward's signed roughly 8 TRILLION autographs, the value of an autograph will lose it's appeal.

People will return to the rookie card.

I don't believe that at all... New Derek jeter autos sell for way more than his raw rcs. I don't see things changing.

 

[All The Hype]

The answer is 4, plain and simple. It's not really even a debate, look at any other player that has been in the same situation with a 1st year chrome and a 2nd year chrome auto. It's the same thing every time.

 

[aaron41984]

base chromes still the way to go

heywards went from ~1-2 bucks to 15 per

you will not see a 2nd year auto increase 15x its original value

This comparison just doesn't hold water when you are talking about your typical prospect. For instance, look at Pablo Sandoval. His base chrome from 2006 stayed at <$4 while his 2008 Elite Autos soared to $100+.

Also, you have to factor in the shipping on a Heyward base chrome that was purchased for $1. That would make the card at least $3, more like $4. That makes the jump only 5x original value. All of the larger lots of Heyward 07 Chrome base that I recall sold in the $3-4 per range (much more at the time of release, actually). He was always a super-prospect and even at the worst times, 10 ct. lots brought in $25 + $3-4 s/h. His 2008 autos generally sold for $40 or less and have sold as high as $225 (maybe more?), with most being over $150 recently. I'll take my chances with the auto based on market reaction.

 

[rookieaddict]

Honestly, I think that in the long-term, base chrome will bounce back reaaaal hard.

10 years form now, when Heyward's signed roughly 8 TRILLION autographs, the value of an autograph will lose it's appeal.

People will return to the rookie card.

I don't believe that at all... New Derek jeter autos sell for way more than his raw rcs. I don't see things changing.

If Heyward achieves Jeter status in the hobby will the 08 Chrome auto have any greater value that other on card autos down the road? I think that's the real question.

 

[pigskincardboard]

Honestly, I think that in the long-term, base chrome will bounce back reaaaal hard.

10 years form now, when Heyward's signed roughly 8 TRILLION autographs, the value of an autograph will lose it's appeal.

People will return to the rookie card.

I don't believe that at all... New Derek jeter autos sell for way more than his raw rcs. I don't see things changing.

I guess I should've said just chrome, rather than base chrome. The refractors will obviously command the premium.

With that said, the SP Foil and Stadium Club bring in a pretty nice price -- no?

What was the print run on those two again (SP FOIL & STAD CLUB)

So yah, that still leads me to believe that nice rcs will command a nicer price than some of the second and third year autographs.

I think it's also fair to assume that Heyward will have more autographs than Jeter..

 

[bmc398]

Honestly, I think that in the long-term, base chrome will bounce back reaaaal hard.

10 years form now, when Heyward's signed roughly 8 TRILLION autographs, the value of an autograph will lose it's appeal.

People will return to the rookie card.

I don't believe that at all... New Derek jeter autos sell for way more than his raw rcs. I don't see things changing.

I guess I should've said just chrome, rather than base chrome. The refractors will obviously command the premium.

With that said, the SP Foil and Stadium Club bring in a pretty nice price -- no?

What was the print run on those two again (SP FOIL & STAD CLUB)

So yah, that still leads me to believe that nice rcs will command a nicer price than some of the second and third year autographs.

I think it's also fair to assume that Heyward will have more autographs than Jeter..

I don't think its fair to assume Heyward will have more at this point. Sure, if things keep going the way they have been it would look to be a given, but maybe he gets all primadonna on us and stops signing? Stranger things have happened.

I think its nuts to assume that his 2007 draft stuff will ever touch his 2008 autos.

Now, any auto he has past the 2010 RC logo autos might fall into this arguement...but even if the base chromes only get what $15-20 right now....any auto of Heyward would do far better than that no matter what year it is.

 

[sheetskout]

The Greed is thick in this thread.

 

[cgilmo]

The Greed is thick in this thread.

It's just prospecting.


Greed isn't really what this is all about.