Keith Law's new Top 50

[hail2thevictors]

It's nice to see another top 50 list after BA's a few days ago. It's definitely not easy ranking the top 50 prospects, but I do have one looming thought after reading Law's top 50.

Someone needs to introduce Keith Law to Robbie Erlin. Not even mentioned in the couple of names of guys that just missed the list. Just to compare, he lists Wily Peralta as honorable mentions, but not Erlin. That seems rather crazy.

He thinks of Erlin as a 3/4. Can't say I disagree with him. The player I noticed missing was Leonys Martin. He made some comparisons of him to Juan Pierre when he first signed just based on secondhand/old reports. Martin may not be a star but he has alot more upside than Pierre.

The thing is, I guess Law kind of goes more based off of potential, so that kind of makes sense.

To me, Erlin is a easy top 50 guy-great delivery, good secondary stuff, great control and command. His ceiling isn't as high as some guys, but his floor is much higher than most, too.

 

[AK11]

Even if the list is not great when inspecting ranking by ranking, I am thrilled someone thinks "Tiny" Altuve is top 50 material.

 

[ctbinvestments]

What the hell has Aaron Hicks done to show he is a top 100 prospect in baseball let alone top 15?

1000% agree....worst highly ranked prospect on this list and BA's. He can't walk his way to the majors (which is the only thing he does well besides defense). No power, average at best sb skills. Reserve/4th OF type at best unless he turns it around soon being 21 (22 in Oct) in A+ ball i really don't see anything here to justify #15.

 

[shayscards79]

Solid list.

At this point I agree with putting Trout above Harper.

I guess I'm in the minority here, but I think Vizcaino has a higher ceiling than Teheran. The ONLY reason I think anyone would rank Teheran higher on a ceiling-based ranking is Vizcaino's nagging back injury (spasms in lower back) and even that's a stretch.

I kinda like this list. Carlos Martinez is too high for my taste, but obviously Keith Law likes him as a prospect and there's nothing wrong with this. Post a top 50, get criticized. Just kinda the way these things work.

Dare I say I like this better than Callis's? I'm personally waiting for mwashuc to do his midseason list if he even will, because I like the last list he put out more than Law's or Callis's.

I did one.


1) Mike Trout- Over Harper sure, has the look of a guy who can hit .300 hit 25 HR, steal 40 Bags, and can play good defense. Taking him over Harper due to performance at AA.

2) Bryce Harper- Monster power, a better bat than projected, he can possibly do it all, but could be held back by his attitude, and hasn't played against more difficult competition yet.

3) Shelby Miller- +Fastball, + Curveball, the makings of a + Change, and improved command due to great mechanics has the look of a rotation anchor.

4) Matt Moore- Lefty with great stuff, has the look of a TOR starter that may have more potential than David Price.

5) Manny Machado- Great start to his career with more pop than predicted and playing sound defense at SS. Maybe end up being more a sure thing than Harper due to polish.

6) Martin Perez- Another Lefty with nasty stuff, has a similar ceiling to Moore, but Moore has better command of his pitches currently.

7) Brett Lawrie- Big jump in power performance this year, sure he's playing in the PCL but could end up being the next Ryan Braun, if he doesn't become a headcase.

8) Jameson Taillon- Showing great command for a young pitcher considering he's been working off his fastball all year, next year watch for the K's to jump.

9) Dustin Ackley- Power and average have been up and if he can stick at 2nd could become a premier middle infielder.

10) Julio Teheran- Good stuff, but there is a question on how long is he going to hold up as a starter, could end up being an electric arm, but could end up being the 2nd Juan Cruz.

11) Jurickson Profar- So far he had exceeded anyone expectations with the bat and is a lock to stay in the middle infield. He may have a similar ceiling to Machado.

12) Wil Myers- While I thought he could be much higher than this, I have to leave him here for now due to missing time. I rate him over Montero due to being able to play in the field and could end up being a better offensive player.

13) Anthony Rizzo- He could end up being a lot like A-Gon but SD park may hold down his numbers.

14) Devin Mesoraco- Could end up being potentially the next Brian McCann at catcher, either way he's has AS upside, and I like him as well over Montero due to being able to stay at Catcher.

15) Jacob Turner- I like Turner, but he has shown this year that he may not have a #1 starter ceiling, but could be a good #2 starter. A much better prospect than Porcello was.

16) Jesus Montero- I rank Montero here as he's proven that he can't play defense and his bb/k has declined a lot this year. He's not Miguel Cabrera, but more closer to Billy Butler.

17) Tyler Skaggs- Surprised, you shouldn't be at all. He's been hitting low to mid 90's this year with good secondary pitches. Dominating the CAL league is big. Could be a richman's John Danks which is a #2 starter.

18) Mike Moustakis- Big power potential, we'll see if he can stay at 3rd. He has AS appearances if he can.

19) Lonnie Chisenhall- Don't worry about the numbers in AAA, he can be a potential AS 3rd baseman.

20) Matt Harvey- Dominating the FSL with his FB and CB combination, if he CU develops into an average or better pitch he can be a #2, very likely a good #3.

21) Jean Segura- If he can stick at SS, he can become a Jose Reyes type player, but I don't think he'll be the 2011 Reyes which is incredible. More likely to be a 2nd baseman with Howie Kendrick ability with more speed.

22) Drew Pomeranz- Could be a #2 starter if he can develop his changeup, if not he could become an electric closer and be a Johnny Venters type pitcher.

23) Wilin Rosario- Catchers who have strong arms and solid defense don't grow on trees.

24) Danny Duffy- Has already 30 IP but he can become a good #3 with a potential to be a #2.

25) Kyle Gibson- Like the K's but not an ace but a good #3 starter with an outside change to be a 2.

26) Manny Banuelos- Excellent changeup, good curve, but poor fastball command had him at 91-93 and touched 95. Overrated by the media and won't be a #1. He could be a #2 or #3 depending on his fastball command.

27) Arodys Vizcaino- If he can survive his elbow scare and add a changeup, he may have the highest ceiling in the Braves Organization. If he can't add the change, he might end up being the next Rafael Soriano.

28) Nick Castellanos- Call me crazy by ranking him this high but it might be smart. Throw out his april and you have a plus .300 hitter with solid power in the MWL.

29) Jake Marisnick- Which brings me to another MWL player whom may have a AS ceiling as well. Marisnick the longer he hits over .300 continues to take away the naysayers with his hitting. Could become a premier CF in the majors if he hits his potential.

30) Carlos Martinez- Big arm, also i've heard he might not have the mechanics to hold as a starter.

31) Travis D'Arnaud- Another catcher whom could have potential AS appearances in the future if his back holds up.

32) Zach Wheeler- Big arm, but also an above average injury risk. Could be good for a few years or poof in the minors.

33) Miguel Sano- Big power, also needs to find a position to play, could be in the top 10 next year.

34) Jarrod Parker- Recovery from TJ has been slow, needs to find his command.

35) Hak Ju Lee- Could be a top 15 guy this year from now, he could become the electric leadoff hitter they have been looking for years.

36) Taijuan Walker- Potential elite talent needs to harness his changeup to move up the list. Simply too overpowering for the MWL right now.

37) Desmond Jennings- A big drop for me, can he show that he can be an everyday player. May not live up to the rays expectations also will be 25 in october.

38) Gary Sanchez- Can he overcome his attitude troubles and become an offensive monster or does he get dealt like Jose Tabata did.

39) Paul Goldschmidt- Monster power season currently, can he keep it up in the majors or will he become another Dallas McPherson type who feasted in the minors and couldn't hit in the majors.

40) Jason Kipnis- Currently on a tear in AAA and I feel the indians need him ASAP. Could have a nice long career as a regular with maybe an AS season or two sprinkled in.

41) Casey Kelly

42) Brett Jackson

43) Mike Montgomery

44) Jedd Gyoko

45) Zach Lee

46) Dellin Betances

47) Josh Sale

48) Gary Brown

49) Derek Norris

50) Robert Erlin

 

[shayscards79]

Its going to be great watching Michael Choice destroy mlb pitching in a couple of years despite not making any lists.

 

[asw37]

anyone have Law's input on Taillon and Herdia? Any information is much appreciated!

 

[Dice-K Collector]

If anyone wants the 'analysis' on a particular player, let me know and I'll post it.

Could I get Banuelos analysis?

 

[MichaelStanton2010]

It is tough to roll out a top 50 list....this is a totally subjective subject, so anything is possible. I totally disagree with law(as always) he tries to go against the grain too much for the "wow" factor. You almost have to though to stand out from everyone else...so I praise him for that,but seriously a lot of these ranking are a huge reach period! If you are going for the wow factor at least make the wow guys believable(Machado, Taillon, Profar type guys who have the ceiling) I must say the Matt Moore at 2 I can agree with...definately threw the wow factor in this list LOL

Just names and link not the article. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/ ... -prospects

1 Bryce Harper
2 Matt Moore
3 Shelby Miller
4 Carlos Martinez
5 Manny Machado
6 Devin Mesoraco
7 Hak-Ju-Lee
8 Desmond Jennings
9 Brett Lawrie
10 Martin Perez
11 Arodys Vizcaino
12 Julio Teheran
13 Jacob Turner
14 Jameson Taillon
15 Aaron Hicks
16 Wil Myers
17 Jarred Cosart
18 Manny Banuelos
19 Jarrod Parker
20 Travis D'Arnaud
21 Jesus Montero
22 Jurickson Profar
23 Miguel Sano
24 Jonathan Singleton
25 Jean Segura
26 Matt Harvey
27 Oswaldo Arcia
28 Tyler Skaggs
29 Casey Kelly
30 Taijuan Walker
31 Zack Wheeler
32 Mike Montgomery
33 Zach Lee
34 Dellin Betances
35 Drew Pomeranz
36 A.J. Cole
37 Allen Webster
38 Jonathan Schoop
39 Henderson Alvarez
40 Nick Franklin
41 Cristian Yelich
42 Will Middlebrooks
43 Nolan Arenado
44 Yasmani Grandel
45 Jake Odorizzi
46 Luis Heredia
47 Tyrell Jenkins
48 Drew Hutchinson
49 Jason Kipnis
50 Jose Altuve

 

[shayscards79]

When it comes to prospects and this hobby, ceiling isn't always king. That's why I don't really care too much about how these subjective lists pan out when it comes to selling cards. Yeah, a lot of people like to project using these lists, but some of the best investments never make these lists. There are more than enough college baseball players that will be successful at the big league level and random 22 and 23 years old that blow up a bit later in there careers.

 

[DRav87]

anyone have Law's input on Taillon and Herdia? Any information is much appreciated!

Taillon
Analysis: He has a plus fastball, flashes a plus slider and has just eight walks on the season (though four came in his past two starts). The Pirates have been very cautious with his workload, and he hasn't faced more than 22 batters in any outing this season, which isn't great for future durability. Preseason Ranking: 30

Heredia
Analysis: Early reports from the Gulf Coast League are positive -- he has a chance for three plus pitches with a body that's already built for durability. Preseason Ranking: NR

 

[DRav87]

If anyone wants the 'analysis' on a particular player, let me know and I'll post it.

Could I get Banuelos analysis?

Analysis: He struggled with his command early after looking so good in the fall and spring. He has four walks against 24 strikeouts in his past four outings (19 2/3 IP), and that's a positive sign. Preseason Ranking: 12