- Thread starter
- #1
Still reeling at Syndergaard's low ranking.
Also shocked at how high Lindor and Russell ranked.
Welcome to ESPN Insider's 2013 ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.
This is my sixth such ranking for Insider, and there has been quite a bit of turnover from last year's list. The top four players from last year all received too much playing time in the majors in 2012 to qualify again; the top two, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, won their respective leagues' Rookie of the Year awards. Baltimore's Manny Machado would have ranked second on this list but lost his rookie status in September after he crossed the 130 at-bat threshold. This year's list shows the depth in the minors right now in shortstops and right-handed pitching, with a shortage of talent behind the plate.
The Guidelines
• The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1.
• Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.
• I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea "prospects" for the purposes of this exercise, which means no Hyun-Jin Ryu (among others).
• When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.
• I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power. David Ortiz has 20 speed. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.
• I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 last offseason. An "ineligible" player (IE) was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an "unranked" player (UR) was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers list or list of 10 players who just missed the cut.
Law's complete top 100: Index | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100
Rank Player
1 Jurickson Profar
Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 20, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rangers)
2012 ranking: 7
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
126
AB
480
HR
14
RBI
62
SB
16
SO
79
BB
66
AVG
.280
OBP
.368
SLG
.452
Profar is the best prospect in the minors this year thanks to an incredible combination of tools, skills, and baseball instincts rarely found in players who play in the middle of the field. His feel for the game is unusual for a player of any age, much less a teenager, and should put another nail in the coffin of the old saw that American-born players have better instincts.
He has an outstanding approach at the plate that allowed him to make the two-level jump from low Class A to Double-A without losing much production, and he showed more power this year than I expected; his frame isn't big but he stays upright through contact better now and he does get plenty of hip rotation to drive the ball. At short he has superlative actions with a plus-plus arm and plenty of range in both directions, so there's never been a question about his position.
A good defensive shortstop who posts OBPs around .400 and hits 15-20 homers a year is a player around whom you can build your roster, and who should help keep the Rangers in contention for the next decade.
Rank Player
2 Oscar Taveras
Age: 20 (DOB: June 19, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: OF Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: AA (Springfield)
2012 ranking: 53
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
124
AB
477
HR
23
RBI
94
SB
10
SO
56
BB
42
AVG
.321
OBP
.380
SLG
.572
If I told those of you who are Cardinals fans that Oscar Taveras would be the next Vladimir Guerrero, you'd take that, right? I disdain player comps since they so often reflect the wrong similarities -- national origin, alma mater, sometimes even facial resemblances -- but this one fits shockingly well aside from their handedness.
Taveras, a left-handed hitter, has a furious swing with outstanding plate coverage, doesn't walk much or strike out much and, new in 2012, has plus raw power. He shortened his swing last offseason, getting his hands a little lower and tighter and creating a more direct path to the ball, but still has the same ability to go out of the zone and square up pitches most hitters could only foul off.
He has played center and right in the minors, but the corner is his more likely home. He'll have plenty of range, although he doesn't have Vlad's arm (few do). Taveras could be up this year and playing every day, with the potential for .300 averages and 30-plus homer seasons at his peak.
Rank Player
3 Dylan Bundy
Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 15, 1992)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: Majors (Orioles)
2012 ranking: 11
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
23
IP
103.2
W
9
L
3
ERA
2.08
SO
119
BB
28
H
67
HR
6
BAA
.186
Bundy, the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft, made it pretty clear this spring that he should have gone No. 1, with his height (he's 6 feet tall) and the perceived risk of prep right-handers the only real arguments against him.
He was probably ready for Double-A by midyear if not sooner, but started the season in low Class A on a highly restricted pitch count, tearing the Sally League into tiny pieces before moving up to high-A in late May and pitching extremely well there too. He did that all without his best weapon, a hard cutter that breaks like a slider but at velocities up to 89 mph, which the organization asked him to set aside while he developed his other stuff.
Bundy did work on his other off-speed pitches this year, with a solid-average curveball and a changeup that probably won't be as effective as the cutter, and he has some work to do with fastball command. He has one of the minors' best deliveries, his conditioning is superb and he's a diligent kid with a great work ethic. So while he may not pitch in the Orioles' rotation until 2014 or so, he still has No. 1 starter upside.
Rank Player
4 Wil Myers
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 20, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: AAA (Omaha)
2012 ranking: 13
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
134
AB
522
HR
37
RBI
109
SB
6
SO
140
BB
61
AVG
.314
OBP
.387
SLG
.600
Myers returns to the top ten after an enormous season between Double- and Triple-A that ended, somewhat shockingly, with an offseason trade from the Royals to the Rays in a six-player deal that brought James Shields to Kansas City.
Myers should have debuted in Kansas City last summer, but the team just won't give up on Jeff Francoeur, which may in turn have made Myers more available this winter. His swing is very simple and he has quick wrists to generate bat speed; he's lengthened his stride for his game at-bats, giving him a longer finish for more power with the slight downside of some collapse on his back side, which probably explains the high strikeout rate in Triple. On defense, he can fake center field but belongs in right; he's athletic enough to handle it with a plus arm but needs work on his reads, as you'd expect from a player who was a catcher coming out of the draft.
He's a patient hitter who needs to work on bat control and might struggle to hit for average at first, producing via walks and power, with an eventual ceiling as a high-average, high-power player who hits second or fourth in a lineup and ranks among the top five players in the league. There's just no way the Rays could turn a chance to get a young impact bat like this down.
Rank Player
5 Xander Bogaerts
Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: AA (Portland)
2012 ranking: 62
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
127
AB
476
HR
20
RBI
81
SB
5
SO
106
BB
44
AVG
.307
OBP
.373
SLG
.523
A year ago, Bogaerts looked like a high-ceiling bat who'd have to find a new position, most likely third base, but a year of full-season ball at shortstop with continued work on maintaining his conditioning has his odds of remaining in the middle of the field up over even money. And a shortstop who can hit like this is a pretty special commodity.
Bogaerts has a very easy, picturesque right-handed swing, with great hand acceleration that leads to surprisingly hard contact -- the ball comes off his bat much better than you'd expect, given his size. He gets his front leg down a little late, which could lead to timing issues but hasn't so far.
He's not likely to become a plus defender at short, but even fringe-average defense there would make him a five-win player or more given his bat. And given how he has managed to keep his waist lean and his lower half athletic so far, I like his chances to do just that.
Rank Player
6 Christian Yelich
Age: 21 (DOB: Dec. 5, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: A (Jupiter)
2012 ranking: 48
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
107
AB
401
HR
12
RBI
48
SB
20
SO
85
BB
49
AVG
.329
OBP
.402
SLG
.516
Yelich has one of the prettiest swings in the minors, with strong, steady hands; a short and very consistent path to the ball; and good rotational motion giving him some power in his follow-through.
At just 20 years old for the 2012 season, Yelich led the high Class A Florida State League in slugging while finishing second in batting average and OBP (behind a 24-year-old), even hitting left-handed pitchers at a reasonable rate. He's a good athlete and solid-average runner who can handle the range aspects of center field but whose awkward throwing motion has always made him a candidate to move to left field. He has improved just enough that center looks like it might be an option long term.
In left, his bat will still profile as an above-average regular or better as he gets on base and hits 20-plus homers a year, but if he's just an average defender in center he should be a five-win player or better at his peak.
Rank Player
7 Francisco Lindor
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 14, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '12 Level: A (Lake County)
2012 ranking: 35
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
122
AB
490
HR
6
RBI
42
SB
27
SO
78
BB
61
AVG
.257
OBP
.352
SLG
.355
Lindor played all of 2012 in a full-season league -- at age 18 one of the youngest regulars anywhere outside of short-season ball -- and handled himself extremely well both at the plate and in the field.
A legitimate switch-hitter, Lindor has a better swing right-handed, keeping his weight back longer and staying steadier through contact, but his left-handed approach is so advanced that he'll be productive from that side even if he never quite equalizes his two swings. On defense he's incredibly instinctive with great hands and a plus arm. The only substantial question is what kind of power he'll have when he matures, since he doesn't have a big frame and his swing doesn't have a ton of loft. But guys who make a lot of hard line-drive contact often end up with above-average power despite a lack of size.
Even if that doesn't happen, he projects as a plus defensive shortstop who posts very high OBPs and steals 20-30 bags a year, a likely All-Star at a position where most teams are desperate for anyone who can catch the ball.
Rank Player
8 Gerrit Cole
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 8, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: AAA (Indianapolis)
2012 ranking: 10
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
26
IP
132
W
9
L
7
ERA
2.80
SO
136
BB
45
H
113
HR
7
BAA
.230
Cole's performance in high Class A and Double-A was solid enough, but it's more impressive when you consider how many things he was working on while putting up those lines.
He has hit 102 mph with his four-seamer, but it's so flat and hitters get a good-enough look at it that it's not his best pitch. He can make it more effective by using his plus-plus changeup, a true swing-and-miss pitch right now, and mixing in more two-seamers in the 94-96 range to keep hitters from squaring up the four-seam version. His slider is up to 87-90 and when it's right it's hard and appears to break very late, although it's not that consistent and he can try to overthrow it.
Cole's biggest issue now is fastball command, not just physically but mentally. He has to break that tendency to try to respond to adversity on the mound by putting the next pitch through the catcher, working instead on locating it and mixing in those other pitches. This was his first full year of calling his own games, with plenty of positives, and given another half-year or so in the minors he should be ready for the Pirates' rotation, with a future as a No. 1 starter.
Rank Player
9 Taijuan Walker
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 13, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AA (Jackson)
2012 ranking: 24
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
25
IP
126.2
W
7
L
10
ERA
4.69
SO
118
BB
50
H
124
HR
12
BAA
.258
The Mariners wisely chose to jump Walker over the high Class A California League, keeping him away from an insane hitter's park in High Desert but making the 19-year-old the youngest starter to spend the whole season in Double-A.
He's one of the most athletic pitchers in the minors, with a loose, easy delivery that generates plus velocity with minimal effort. He struggled with his off-speed stuff in 2012, with the curveball disappearing for much of the year but becoming consistent again in August. The pitch has good depth, but he needs to tighten it up and maintain his arm speed when throwing it because it can be pretty but too slow, in the 74-75 mph range. His changeup is promising but too hard and straight in the upper 80s, even touching 90, at which point it does the hitter who couldn't sniff the 97 mph fastball a favor.
The fact that Walker held his own in Double-A at such a young age is a great sign for his upside; it's now on him to translate that athleticism into better off-speed stuff and a more aggressive plan with his fastball, allowing him to reach that No. 1 starter upside.
Rank Player
10 Addison Russell
Age: 19 (DOB: Jan. 23, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Oakland A's
Top '12 Level: A (Burlington)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
55
AB
217
HR
7
RBI
45
SB
16
SO
48
BB
23
AVG
.369
OBP
.432
SLG
.594
If teams could redo the 2012 draft today, Russell wouldn't make it to the 11th pick as he did in June, not after a stellar pro debut -- reaching the full-season Midwest League before his 19th birthday.
Russell entered his senior year at Miami's Monsignior Pace HS hearing grave doubts about his ability to remain at shortstop, but chose to drop some of his upper-body muscle and restore his athleticism so scouts would view him as a middle-of-the-diamond player -- which he is, clearly, given how well he played there all spring and summer last year. He has a smooth, repeatable right-handed swing with a line-drive-oriented follow-through, although his bat speed is so good that he could have plus power down the road. At short, his feet are his only weakness, but his hands are off the charts and his arm is more than fine for the left side.
The sample in pro ball was small, but his approach looked very advanced all summer and held even as he moved past his draft classmates. He's a potential impact player in the middle of the field who might reach that point sooner than most prep kids reach the bigs.
Rank Player
11 Miguel Sano
Age: 19 (DOB: May 11, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: A (Beloit)
2012 ranking: 28
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
129
AB
457
HR
28
RBI
100
SB
8
SO
144
BB
80
AVG
.258
OBP
.373
SLG
.521
The highly touted Sano had a real breakout year in 2012: on the field, where he made his full-season debut at age 19, and off it, where he was one of the main subjects of the documentary "Pelotero," which detailed the messy efforts by several clubs, notably the Pirates, to sign him in 2009.
On the field is what matters here, of course, and Sano's year in the Midwest League was an enormous success. He showed huge improvements in his approach at the plate and continued to press hard to keep himself at a size that can keep him in the infield long term. He has some of the easiest power in the minors, with a clean rotational swing that generates most of its power from his hips and legs, driving the ball to all fields and showing he can send the ball to the gaps even when he doesn't get all of it. The spike in his walk rate -- more than 75 percent higher than it was in 2011, even with the jump in levels -- speaks volumes about his willingness to work and make adjustments. That should mitigate concerns about his contact rate (which also improved as the season went on).
On defense, I saw Sano play an indifferent third base in August, but I've had sources tell me they saw more effort there, and he has the arm and the feet to handle the position if he doesn't outgrow it. Third base is a void in the minors right now, so he's far a more valuable asset if he can stay at the position. And with 30-40 homer power and the chance for mid-.300 OBPs, he'd be the anchor for the Twins' lineup for years.
Rank Player
12 Tyler Skaggs
Age: 21 (DOB: July 13, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '12 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2012 ranking: 25
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
22
IP
122.1
W
9
L
6
ERA
2.87
SO
116
BB
37
H
112
HR
12
BAA
.246
Skaggs' evolution as a pitcher continued in 2012, establishing him as the top left-handed pitching prospect still in the minors.
He'll pitch mostly at 91-93 mph, touching 94 occasionally, with a four-seamer that he'll throw inside to hitters but needs to keep down in the zone as much as possible. His curveball at 74-79 has depth as well as clear two-plane break, although it breaks so much he sometimes has trouble finishing it in the zone. His upper-70s changeup flashes plus with some fading action and good arm speed. Skaggs makes good use of his height (he's 6-foot-3), staying on top of the ball well through release and adding some deception to an otherwise clean delivery. His frame could still handle a little more weight to increase his stamina and maybe add another tick of velocity.
Even as-is, he's a grade of fastball command away from being a No. 2 starter with three above-average-to-plus pitches and the ability to wipe out hitters on both sides of the plate.
Rank Player
13 Zack Wheeler
Age: 22 (DOB: May 30, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: New York Mets
Top '12 Level: AAA (Buffalo)
2012 ranking: 27
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
25
IP
149
W
12
L
8
ERA
3.26
SO
148
BB
59
H
115
HR
4
BAA
.221
It's kind of ironic that the Giants won two World Series in three years, but the trade that sent away their best prospect in 2011 (Wheeler for Carlos Beltran) didn't so much as contribute to a playoff appearance.
Wheeler mopped the floor with Eastern League hitters before a late-season promotion to Triple-A. He'll pitch at 91-96 and touched 98 in a brief stint at the Futures Game. He has an out-pitch curveball up to 80 mph and a straight change that is probably too hard to be truly effective, with lefties posting a .386 OBP against him in Double-A. Wheeler takes a long stride toward the plate with big hip rotation to generate arm speed, and he pitches very aggressively with the fastball.
If he can improve his feel for the changeup, either taking a little off it or adjusting his grip to give it some life, he has a chance for three 60-grade pitches or better on the scouting report -- along with a durable build and the control to pitch in the majors right away, which would make him no worse than a solid No. 2.
Rank Player
14 Travis d'Arnaud
Age: 23 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: C Organization: New York Mets
Top '12 Level: AAA (Las Vegas)
2012 ranking: 6
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
67
AB
279
HR
16
RBI
52
SB
1
SO
59
BB
19
AVG
.333
OBP
.380
SLG
.595
Speaking of players who can't stay healthy, d'Arnaud hits for average and power, throws well, handles pitchers well -- and gets hurt at least once a year, reaching 400 plate appearaces in a season just twice in five years. Injuries to his knees, back, finger and more have kept him off the field.
He has plus raw power, thanks to good hip rotation and a big finish to his swing, giving him 25-30 homer potential if he can ever play a full season. He has solid hand-eye coordination for contact but doesn't walk much, so he might peak as a .280 hitter with a .330-.340 OBP, buoyed more by his power than anything else. His defense has improved substantially since he was first drafted by the Phillies, with throwing the strongest aspect of his game.
Everything about his game is ready for the majors or close to it, but he has to show he can handle a full season without hitting the DL: A player who plays like an All-Star for just 80 games a year but spends the rest in the trainer's room has value but will always be perceived as a disappointment.
Rank Player
15 Mike Zunino
Age: 21 (DOB: March 25, 1991)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: C Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AA (Jackson)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
44
AB
161
HR
13
RBI
43
SB
1
SO
33
BB
23
AVG
.360
OBP
.447
SLG
.689
Zunino was the third overall pick and first college player chosen in 2012, a polished offensive catcher out of Florida with no doubts about his ability to stay at the position, offering average to above-average tools but nothing truly plus.
His swing isn't entirely conventional, with a slight drift over his front side, but he keeps his weight back enough to drive the ball. His real asset at the plate is his hands, strong and quick, giving him the ability to go to all fields, and, combined with good leverage from proper hip rotation, at least average power if not better. He's an adequate receiver with an average arm and slowish release, although that last point can be improved with better coaching in pro ball.
He advanced very quickly in his first pro summer, hitting well in a tiny sample in Double-A, and could debut at some point this year, giving the Mariners the long-term catcher they've lacked for years.
Rank Player
16 Jose Fernandez
Age: 20 (DOB: July 31, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: A (Jupiter)
2012 ranking: 18
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
25
IP
134
W
14
L
1
ERA
1.75
SO
158
BB
35
H
89
HR
2
BAA
.191
Fernandez might have had the best year of any pitching prospect in full-season ball, graded just by performance, showing two plus pitches and better command of both of them than expected, reaching high Class A before his 20th birthday in late July.
He comes from just under three-quarters, sits in the mid-90s and will regularly hit the 97-99 range with heavy life (although he's not a big ground ball guy). He throws both a curve and a slider; his downer low-80s curveball is a real swing-and-miss pitch that would miss right-handers' bats in the majors today; the upper-80s slider is also quite effective, with more tilt than the curve to break away from right-handers' bats.
He does have a big frame that sits on the border between "durable" and "heavy," which won't be a problem if he maintains his conditioning but will require more work than the typical pitcher has to do to keep himself in shape. He also needs to develop an average changeup, a pitch he barely had to work on in 2012 because the fastball/breaking ball were so effective, although he did have a modest platoon split at both levels.
The Marlins should push him so that he's challenged in 2013 and forced to make adjustments, including developing that third pitch, to get him closer to that No. 1 starter upside.
Rank Player
17 Anthony Rendon
Age: 22 (DOB: June 6, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization:Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2012 ranking: 17
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
43
AB
133
HR
6
RBI
12
SB
0
SO
29
BB
23
AVG
.233
OBP
.363
SLG
.489
When he's healthy, he hits, but the man with the cut-glass ankles needs to keep himself on the field for a full season in 2013.
Rendon has tremendous bat speed with a very advanced approach at the plate, discriminating well between balls and strikes and putting himself in favorable counts; his strikeouts are less a result of passivity than a result of mistiming pitches within the zone. He drifts a little over his front side but is so rotational that he can still drive the ball out to the gaps, with 40-50 doubles potential even if he tops out at 15 or so homers. He's blocked at third base by Ryan Zimmerman, which leaves future position in doubt. However, he has excellent instincts and great hands. Although he has always been quick on his feet, that will eventually slip if he keeps hurting his ankles -- and second base, a position that is particularly hard on players' lower halves, seems like a disastrous idea.
He made up for some of the four months he missed during the regular season with a strong campaign in the Arizona Fall League, but still needs to show he can hold up for a full season. His bat isn't that far away once he's healthy enough and there's an opportunity in D.C.
Rank Player
18 Gary Sanchez
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 2, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: C Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: A (Tampa)
2012 ranking: 55
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
116
AB
435
HR
18
RBI
85
SB
15
SO
106
BB
32
AVG
.290
OBP
.344
SLG
.485
Sanchez entered 2012 with few doubts about his bat but many about his receiving skills and his maturity; he continued to hit while answering many of those other questions, earning himself the promotion to high Class A he didn't get out of spring training.
He arrived in Tampa last spring in better shape and improved his receiving substantially over the previous year, not just physically but in his effort level on and off the field, to the point where he's now very likely to remain behind the plate. His arm strength is probably a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but some hesitation before he releases the ball has it playing below that, something that can probably be improved in time -- and even as is he can show pop times to second base under two seconds.
Sanchez' offensive potential is tremendous; despite an exaggerated leg kick, he gets his lead foot down in time, keeping his weight back enough to drive the ball, even showing doubles power the other way thanks to strong hands and excellent hip rotation. He's aggressive but not a hacker and doesn't expand the zone too much for a 19-year-old in full season ball, although he'll need to tighten up his pitch recognition before he gets to Double-A.
The Yankees were thrilled with his progress this year, including his improved attitude and work ethic, meaning we can seriously talk about him as the Yankees' catcher of the future, perhaps starting as early as 2015.
Rank Player
19 Aaron Sanchez
Age: 20 (DOB: July 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '12 Level: A (Lansing)
2012 ranking: 96
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
25
IP
90.1
W
8
L
5
ERA
2.49
SO
97
BB
51
H
64
HR
3
BAA
.204
If you talked to the Blue Jays this winter about a trade, there was just one prospect you couldn't discuss; teams could and did pry loose the next four guys in their system, but Aaron Sanchez was untouchable. For good reason: Ace stuff like this is too hard to come by for the Blue Jays to let it go.
Even though his body isn't fully mature yet, Sanchez worked in the mid- to upper 90s all year on restricted pitch counts, turning a lineup over a third time in only five of his 25 outings. His curveball became sharper this year and his changeup, his third-best pitch coming into the season, was so effective that he showed a big reverse platoon split -- allowing just two extra-base hits to left-handed batters all year while punching out nearly a third of them. His delivery is very easy and he gets good life on his fastball to keep the ball on the ground. Aside from mot being stretched out to throw 150-plus innings, Sanchez also has to improve his command and control, something no one seriously doubts he'll do given his makeup, his athleticism and how easily he repeats his delivery. It's time for him to take that leap in 2013.
Look for him to start in high Class A and build up to 130 innings or so this year, with a possible ETA of 2014 and a projection as a No. 1 starter a few years beyond that.
Rank Player
20 Jameson Taillon
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 18, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: AA (Altoona)
2012 ranking: 16
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
26
IP
142
W
9
L
8
ERA
3.55
SO
116
BB
38
H
120
HR
10
BAA
.225
Taillon has top-of-the-rotation stuff, not that far behind teammate Gerrit Cole's arsenal, but doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect given what comes out of his arm and may be more of a 1A to Cole's 1 when it's all said and done.
In his defense, the Pirates have done a lot with Taillon to clean up his delivery, which was more of a "me throw hard now" approach in high school, while also mixing in a two-seamer up to 95 mph to balance the lack of deception from his arm action. His curveball remains a plus pitch and his changeup has improved to the point where it's a legitimate third offering right now. He was on a tight leash early in the season, but acquitted himself well in three Double-A starts at the end of the year, even getting up to 26 batters faced in his last outing, walking just one guy total in those starts.
With better fastball command and more comfort with the two-seamer as an alternative to throwing it through the catcher, he'll come a lot closer to the pitcher we thought the Pirates were getting with the second overall pick in 2010.
Rank Player
21 Shelby Miller
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: Majors (Cardinals)
2012 ranking: 5
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
27
IP
136.2
W
11
L
10
ERA
4.74
SO
160
BB
50
H
138
HR
24
BAA
.260
Miller had a down-and-up year, struggling for much of the season with his delivery, resulting in flatter stuff and reduced command that explain the high home run rate he suffered in Triple-A. By early August, he'd restored his old mechanics, and the Miller you saw in the majors in September, lighting up the Reds on the final day of the season, is the guy you'll see in the Cardinals' rotation sooner rather than later.
His fastball will reach 97 mph, but he'll sit as a starter in the low- to mid-90s; his hard curveball is his out pitch in the upper 70s to low 80s, while his changeup continues to improve and will flash above-average. Miller's first/second-half splits from Triple-A tell the story of his mechanical issues; after the break, he walked just seven with 70 punchouts and gave up seven of his 24 homers. He's always going to be a little fly-ball prone because of the lack of life on his fastball, but he has the easy delivery to allow him to command it and the out-pitch breaking ball to miss bats.
The Cardinals entertained trade proposals involving Miller, but given how far he has come and the uncertainty around Jaime Garcia's health, I imagine he's untouchable right now.
Rank Player
22 Byron Buxton
Age: 19 (DOB: Dec. 18, 1993)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
48
AB
155
HR
5
RBI
20
SB
11
SO
41
BB
19
AVG
.248
OBP
.344
SLG
.448
The second pick in last year's draft, Buxton was one of the class' top athletes: an 80 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with barely any body fat, a plus center fielder who could sit in the low 90s on the mound, but who played high school ball in rural Georgia and showed almost no power in his senior year.
Buxton resembles a young Eric Davis physically, running as well and effortlessly as Davis did before injuries interrupted his career, even better underway than he is home to first. Like Billy Hamilton, Buxton can handle center right now even though his reads on balls need some improvement. Buxton has quick wrists and gets good rotation in his right-handed swing, with good hand-eye coordination but a slight tendency for his swing to get long on balls out of the zone. He has the hip rotation and extension to eventually hit for above-average power, although his back foot comes off the ground as he rotates, which will make it harder for him to drive the ball until it's corrected. After a slow start in pro ball where he started 1-for-27, Buxton hit .290/.380/.529 the rest of the way in 138 at-bats across two levels, more in line with expectations for a slightly older high school senior and giving him a chance to start 2013 in full-season ball at age 19.
He might be a slow mover like fellow Twins prospect Aaron Hicks, but has similar upside as an impact defender in center who can contribute with the bat as well.
Rank Player
23 Kaleb Cowart
Age: 20 (DOB: June 2, 1992)
Bats: BothThrows: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '12 Level: A (Inland Empire)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
135
AB
526
HR
16
RBI
103
SB
14
SO
111
BB
67
AVG
.276
OBP
.358
SLG
.452
Cowart now ranks as the top prospect in a depleted Angels system, but he'd be at or near the top of most teams' lists on his own merits as a potentially plus defender at third who looks like he'll hit and hit for power.
A two-way star in high school who topped out at 96 mph off the mound, Cowart has great actions at third and really good hands as well as a plus arm, although his release isn't natural for an infielder. At the plate, Cowart is a legitimate switch-hitter, even though his left-handed swing can get a little long, with more power hitting left-handed but better contact when hitting right-handed. His at-bats continue to improve even as he moves up the ladder, and he has proved to be less raw at the plate than expected given how weak his high school competition in rural Georgia was.
The Angels don't have a lot of impact in their system right now, and Cowart is their best chance to produce another homegrown star who can produce 4-5 wins above replacement in a season.
Rank Player
24 Carlos Correa
Age: 18 (DOB: Sept. 22, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Greeneville)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
50
AB
190
HR
3
RBI
12
SB
6
SO
44
BB
12
AVG
.258
OBP
.305
SLG
.400
The first overall pick in last year's draft, Correa signed for well under the pick's recommended signing bonus, but was second on my draft board and a valid top selection based strictly on merit; 17-year-old infielders with his kind of raw power and hand-eye coordination aren't terribly easy to come by.
Correa gets tremendous torque from his hip rotation and stays extremely balanced through contact, even though his bat speed is so good it might knock a less coordinated hitter down. He's athletic enough to stay at short now, with plenty of arm, but he's going to be so well-built and physical that it's hard to imagine that he'll stay in the middle of the field. Third base is the most likely destination, one he should be able to handle without trouble.
As a potential 30-homer bat who'll be strong defensively, he has star potential over there, and at 17 he has plenty of time to prove the Astros wise for making him the centerpiece of their 2012 draft class.
Rank Player
25 Trevor Bauer
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 17, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '12 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2012 ranking: 21
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
22
IP
130.1
W
12
L
2
ERA
2.42
SO
157
BB
61
H
107
HR
9
BAA
.230
Forget, for the moment, what you think you know about Bauer, or what you heard second- or third-hand -- some of it from the Diamondbacks organization after Bauer had already traded him to the Indians. If I told you your club could acquire a 22-year-old starter who'd won the Golden Spikes Award in his junior year, who could run his four-seamer up to 97 mph, had a true out-pitch curveball he needed to throw for strikes more consistently, and who was an intelligent kid with strong opinions on pitching plans and maintaining his delivery, would you want him on your team eight days a week or nine?
Bauer's big-league tenure in 2012 was a fiasco, heading downhill when he strained a groin muscle in his first outing and didn't speak up and hitting bottom when he and Miguel Montero ended up in a public feud over their lack of coordination on how to attack hitters, but the biggest problem of all was that Bauer didn't throw strikes when he was behind in the count. Pac 12 hitters might chase stuff out of the zone when they're up 2-0 or 3-1, but most big league hitters won't, and until Bauer shows he can throw his two primary pitches for quality strikes, they'll wait him out.
Given his age and intelligence, there's no reason to think Bauer can't make that adjustment in time, and Cleveland has every incentive to help him get there. I think they just stole a No. 2 starter from Arizona, and even if my long-term concerns about his complex delivery hold true, he might give them 600-800 high-quality innings before anything goes wrong.
Also shocked at how high Lindor and Russell ranked.
Welcome to ESPN Insider's 2013 ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.
This is my sixth such ranking for Insider, and there has been quite a bit of turnover from last year's list. The top four players from last year all received too much playing time in the majors in 2012 to qualify again; the top two, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, won their respective leagues' Rookie of the Year awards. Baltimore's Manny Machado would have ranked second on this list but lost his rookie status in September after he crossed the 130 at-bat threshold. This year's list shows the depth in the minors right now in shortstops and right-handed pitching, with a shortage of talent behind the plate.
The Guidelines
• The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1.
• Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.
• I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea "prospects" for the purposes of this exercise, which means no Hyun-Jin Ryu (among others).
• When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.
• I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power. David Ortiz has 20 speed. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.
• I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 last offseason. An "ineligible" player (IE) was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an "unranked" player (UR) was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers list or list of 10 players who just missed the cut.
Law's complete top 100: Index | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100
Rank Player
1 Jurickson Profar
Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 20, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rangers)
2012 ranking: 7
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
126
AB
480
HR
14
RBI
62
SB
16
SO
79
BB
66
AVG
.280
OBP
.368
SLG
.452
Profar is the best prospect in the minors this year thanks to an incredible combination of tools, skills, and baseball instincts rarely found in players who play in the middle of the field. His feel for the game is unusual for a player of any age, much less a teenager, and should put another nail in the coffin of the old saw that American-born players have better instincts.
He has an outstanding approach at the plate that allowed him to make the two-level jump from low Class A to Double-A without losing much production, and he showed more power this year than I expected; his frame isn't big but he stays upright through contact better now and he does get plenty of hip rotation to drive the ball. At short he has superlative actions with a plus-plus arm and plenty of range in both directions, so there's never been a question about his position.
A good defensive shortstop who posts OBPs around .400 and hits 15-20 homers a year is a player around whom you can build your roster, and who should help keep the Rangers in contention for the next decade.
Rank Player
2 Oscar Taveras
Age: 20 (DOB: June 19, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: OF Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: AA (Springfield)
2012 ranking: 53
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
124
AB
477
HR
23
RBI
94
SB
10
SO
56
BB
42
AVG
.321
OBP
.380
SLG
.572
If I told those of you who are Cardinals fans that Oscar Taveras would be the next Vladimir Guerrero, you'd take that, right? I disdain player comps since they so often reflect the wrong similarities -- national origin, alma mater, sometimes even facial resemblances -- but this one fits shockingly well aside from their handedness.
Taveras, a left-handed hitter, has a furious swing with outstanding plate coverage, doesn't walk much or strike out much and, new in 2012, has plus raw power. He shortened his swing last offseason, getting his hands a little lower and tighter and creating a more direct path to the ball, but still has the same ability to go out of the zone and square up pitches most hitters could only foul off.
He has played center and right in the minors, but the corner is his more likely home. He'll have plenty of range, although he doesn't have Vlad's arm (few do). Taveras could be up this year and playing every day, with the potential for .300 averages and 30-plus homer seasons at his peak.
Rank Player
3 Dylan Bundy
Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 15, 1992)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: Majors (Orioles)
2012 ranking: 11
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
23
IP
103.2
W
9
L
3
ERA
2.08
SO
119
BB
28
H
67
HR
6
BAA
.186
Bundy, the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft, made it pretty clear this spring that he should have gone No. 1, with his height (he's 6 feet tall) and the perceived risk of prep right-handers the only real arguments against him.
He was probably ready for Double-A by midyear if not sooner, but started the season in low Class A on a highly restricted pitch count, tearing the Sally League into tiny pieces before moving up to high-A in late May and pitching extremely well there too. He did that all without his best weapon, a hard cutter that breaks like a slider but at velocities up to 89 mph, which the organization asked him to set aside while he developed his other stuff.
Bundy did work on his other off-speed pitches this year, with a solid-average curveball and a changeup that probably won't be as effective as the cutter, and he has some work to do with fastball command. He has one of the minors' best deliveries, his conditioning is superb and he's a diligent kid with a great work ethic. So while he may not pitch in the Orioles' rotation until 2014 or so, he still has No. 1 starter upside.
Rank Player
4 Wil Myers
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 20, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: AAA (Omaha)
2012 ranking: 13
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
134
AB
522
HR
37
RBI
109
SB
6
SO
140
BB
61
AVG
.314
OBP
.387
SLG
.600
Myers returns to the top ten after an enormous season between Double- and Triple-A that ended, somewhat shockingly, with an offseason trade from the Royals to the Rays in a six-player deal that brought James Shields to Kansas City.
Myers should have debuted in Kansas City last summer, but the team just won't give up on Jeff Francoeur, which may in turn have made Myers more available this winter. His swing is very simple and he has quick wrists to generate bat speed; he's lengthened his stride for his game at-bats, giving him a longer finish for more power with the slight downside of some collapse on his back side, which probably explains the high strikeout rate in Triple. On defense, he can fake center field but belongs in right; he's athletic enough to handle it with a plus arm but needs work on his reads, as you'd expect from a player who was a catcher coming out of the draft.
He's a patient hitter who needs to work on bat control and might struggle to hit for average at first, producing via walks and power, with an eventual ceiling as a high-average, high-power player who hits second or fourth in a lineup and ranks among the top five players in the league. There's just no way the Rays could turn a chance to get a young impact bat like this down.
Rank Player
5 Xander Bogaerts
Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: AA (Portland)
2012 ranking: 62
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
127
AB
476
HR
20
RBI
81
SB
5
SO
106
BB
44
AVG
.307
OBP
.373
SLG
.523
A year ago, Bogaerts looked like a high-ceiling bat who'd have to find a new position, most likely third base, but a year of full-season ball at shortstop with continued work on maintaining his conditioning has his odds of remaining in the middle of the field up over even money. And a shortstop who can hit like this is a pretty special commodity.
Bogaerts has a very easy, picturesque right-handed swing, with great hand acceleration that leads to surprisingly hard contact -- the ball comes off his bat much better than you'd expect, given his size. He gets his front leg down a little late, which could lead to timing issues but hasn't so far.
He's not likely to become a plus defender at short, but even fringe-average defense there would make him a five-win player or more given his bat. And given how he has managed to keep his waist lean and his lower half athletic so far, I like his chances to do just that.
Rank Player
6 Christian Yelich
Age: 21 (DOB: Dec. 5, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: A (Jupiter)
2012 ranking: 48
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
107
AB
401
HR
12
RBI
48
SB
20
SO
85
BB
49
AVG
.329
OBP
.402
SLG
.516
Yelich has one of the prettiest swings in the minors, with strong, steady hands; a short and very consistent path to the ball; and good rotational motion giving him some power in his follow-through.
At just 20 years old for the 2012 season, Yelich led the high Class A Florida State League in slugging while finishing second in batting average and OBP (behind a 24-year-old), even hitting left-handed pitchers at a reasonable rate. He's a good athlete and solid-average runner who can handle the range aspects of center field but whose awkward throwing motion has always made him a candidate to move to left field. He has improved just enough that center looks like it might be an option long term.
In left, his bat will still profile as an above-average regular or better as he gets on base and hits 20-plus homers a year, but if he's just an average defender in center he should be a five-win player or better at his peak.
Rank Player
7 Francisco Lindor
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 14, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '12 Level: A (Lake County)
2012 ranking: 35
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
122
AB
490
HR
6
RBI
42
SB
27
SO
78
BB
61
AVG
.257
OBP
.352
SLG
.355
Lindor played all of 2012 in a full-season league -- at age 18 one of the youngest regulars anywhere outside of short-season ball -- and handled himself extremely well both at the plate and in the field.
A legitimate switch-hitter, Lindor has a better swing right-handed, keeping his weight back longer and staying steadier through contact, but his left-handed approach is so advanced that he'll be productive from that side even if he never quite equalizes his two swings. On defense he's incredibly instinctive with great hands and a plus arm. The only substantial question is what kind of power he'll have when he matures, since he doesn't have a big frame and his swing doesn't have a ton of loft. But guys who make a lot of hard line-drive contact often end up with above-average power despite a lack of size.
Even if that doesn't happen, he projects as a plus defensive shortstop who posts very high OBPs and steals 20-30 bags a year, a likely All-Star at a position where most teams are desperate for anyone who can catch the ball.
Rank Player
8 Gerrit Cole
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 8, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: AAA (Indianapolis)
2012 ranking: 10
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
26
IP
132
W
9
L
7
ERA
2.80
SO
136
BB
45
H
113
HR
7
BAA
.230
Cole's performance in high Class A and Double-A was solid enough, but it's more impressive when you consider how many things he was working on while putting up those lines.
He has hit 102 mph with his four-seamer, but it's so flat and hitters get a good-enough look at it that it's not his best pitch. He can make it more effective by using his plus-plus changeup, a true swing-and-miss pitch right now, and mixing in more two-seamers in the 94-96 range to keep hitters from squaring up the four-seam version. His slider is up to 87-90 and when it's right it's hard and appears to break very late, although it's not that consistent and he can try to overthrow it.
Cole's biggest issue now is fastball command, not just physically but mentally. He has to break that tendency to try to respond to adversity on the mound by putting the next pitch through the catcher, working instead on locating it and mixing in those other pitches. This was his first full year of calling his own games, with plenty of positives, and given another half-year or so in the minors he should be ready for the Pirates' rotation, with a future as a No. 1 starter.
Rank Player
9 Taijuan Walker
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 13, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AA (Jackson)
2012 ranking: 24
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
25
IP
126.2
W
7
L
10
ERA
4.69
SO
118
BB
50
H
124
HR
12
BAA
.258
The Mariners wisely chose to jump Walker over the high Class A California League, keeping him away from an insane hitter's park in High Desert but making the 19-year-old the youngest starter to spend the whole season in Double-A.
He's one of the most athletic pitchers in the minors, with a loose, easy delivery that generates plus velocity with minimal effort. He struggled with his off-speed stuff in 2012, with the curveball disappearing for much of the year but becoming consistent again in August. The pitch has good depth, but he needs to tighten it up and maintain his arm speed when throwing it because it can be pretty but too slow, in the 74-75 mph range. His changeup is promising but too hard and straight in the upper 80s, even touching 90, at which point it does the hitter who couldn't sniff the 97 mph fastball a favor.
The fact that Walker held his own in Double-A at such a young age is a great sign for his upside; it's now on him to translate that athleticism into better off-speed stuff and a more aggressive plan with his fastball, allowing him to reach that No. 1 starter upside.
Rank Player
10 Addison Russell
Age: 19 (DOB: Jan. 23, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Oakland A's
Top '12 Level: A (Burlington)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
55
AB
217
HR
7
RBI
45
SB
16
SO
48
BB
23
AVG
.369
OBP
.432
SLG
.594
If teams could redo the 2012 draft today, Russell wouldn't make it to the 11th pick as he did in June, not after a stellar pro debut -- reaching the full-season Midwest League before his 19th birthday.
Russell entered his senior year at Miami's Monsignior Pace HS hearing grave doubts about his ability to remain at shortstop, but chose to drop some of his upper-body muscle and restore his athleticism so scouts would view him as a middle-of-the-diamond player -- which he is, clearly, given how well he played there all spring and summer last year. He has a smooth, repeatable right-handed swing with a line-drive-oriented follow-through, although his bat speed is so good that he could have plus power down the road. At short, his feet are his only weakness, but his hands are off the charts and his arm is more than fine for the left side.
The sample in pro ball was small, but his approach looked very advanced all summer and held even as he moved past his draft classmates. He's a potential impact player in the middle of the field who might reach that point sooner than most prep kids reach the bigs.
Rank Player
11 Miguel Sano
Age: 19 (DOB: May 11, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: A (Beloit)
2012 ranking: 28
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
129
AB
457
HR
28
RBI
100
SB
8
SO
144
BB
80
AVG
.258
OBP
.373
SLG
.521
The highly touted Sano had a real breakout year in 2012: on the field, where he made his full-season debut at age 19, and off it, where he was one of the main subjects of the documentary "Pelotero," which detailed the messy efforts by several clubs, notably the Pirates, to sign him in 2009.
On the field is what matters here, of course, and Sano's year in the Midwest League was an enormous success. He showed huge improvements in his approach at the plate and continued to press hard to keep himself at a size that can keep him in the infield long term. He has some of the easiest power in the minors, with a clean rotational swing that generates most of its power from his hips and legs, driving the ball to all fields and showing he can send the ball to the gaps even when he doesn't get all of it. The spike in his walk rate -- more than 75 percent higher than it was in 2011, even with the jump in levels -- speaks volumes about his willingness to work and make adjustments. That should mitigate concerns about his contact rate (which also improved as the season went on).
On defense, I saw Sano play an indifferent third base in August, but I've had sources tell me they saw more effort there, and he has the arm and the feet to handle the position if he doesn't outgrow it. Third base is a void in the minors right now, so he's far a more valuable asset if he can stay at the position. And with 30-40 homer power and the chance for mid-.300 OBPs, he'd be the anchor for the Twins' lineup for years.
Rank Player
12 Tyler Skaggs
Age: 21 (DOB: July 13, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '12 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2012 ranking: 25
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
22
IP
122.1
W
9
L
6
ERA
2.87
SO
116
BB
37
H
112
HR
12
BAA
.246
Skaggs' evolution as a pitcher continued in 2012, establishing him as the top left-handed pitching prospect still in the minors.
He'll pitch mostly at 91-93 mph, touching 94 occasionally, with a four-seamer that he'll throw inside to hitters but needs to keep down in the zone as much as possible. His curveball at 74-79 has depth as well as clear two-plane break, although it breaks so much he sometimes has trouble finishing it in the zone. His upper-70s changeup flashes plus with some fading action and good arm speed. Skaggs makes good use of his height (he's 6-foot-3), staying on top of the ball well through release and adding some deception to an otherwise clean delivery. His frame could still handle a little more weight to increase his stamina and maybe add another tick of velocity.
Even as-is, he's a grade of fastball command away from being a No. 2 starter with three above-average-to-plus pitches and the ability to wipe out hitters on both sides of the plate.
Rank Player
13 Zack Wheeler
Age: 22 (DOB: May 30, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: New York Mets
Top '12 Level: AAA (Buffalo)
2012 ranking: 27
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
25
IP
149
W
12
L
8
ERA
3.26
SO
148
BB
59
H
115
HR
4
BAA
.221
It's kind of ironic that the Giants won two World Series in three years, but the trade that sent away their best prospect in 2011 (Wheeler for Carlos Beltran) didn't so much as contribute to a playoff appearance.
Wheeler mopped the floor with Eastern League hitters before a late-season promotion to Triple-A. He'll pitch at 91-96 and touched 98 in a brief stint at the Futures Game. He has an out-pitch curveball up to 80 mph and a straight change that is probably too hard to be truly effective, with lefties posting a .386 OBP against him in Double-A. Wheeler takes a long stride toward the plate with big hip rotation to generate arm speed, and he pitches very aggressively with the fastball.
If he can improve his feel for the changeup, either taking a little off it or adjusting his grip to give it some life, he has a chance for three 60-grade pitches or better on the scouting report -- along with a durable build and the control to pitch in the majors right away, which would make him no worse than a solid No. 2.
Rank Player
14 Travis d'Arnaud
Age: 23 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: C Organization: New York Mets
Top '12 Level: AAA (Las Vegas)
2012 ranking: 6
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
67
AB
279
HR
16
RBI
52
SB
1
SO
59
BB
19
AVG
.333
OBP
.380
SLG
.595
Speaking of players who can't stay healthy, d'Arnaud hits for average and power, throws well, handles pitchers well -- and gets hurt at least once a year, reaching 400 plate appearaces in a season just twice in five years. Injuries to his knees, back, finger and more have kept him off the field.
He has plus raw power, thanks to good hip rotation and a big finish to his swing, giving him 25-30 homer potential if he can ever play a full season. He has solid hand-eye coordination for contact but doesn't walk much, so he might peak as a .280 hitter with a .330-.340 OBP, buoyed more by his power than anything else. His defense has improved substantially since he was first drafted by the Phillies, with throwing the strongest aspect of his game.
Everything about his game is ready for the majors or close to it, but he has to show he can handle a full season without hitting the DL: A player who plays like an All-Star for just 80 games a year but spends the rest in the trainer's room has value but will always be perceived as a disappointment.
Rank Player
15 Mike Zunino
Age: 21 (DOB: March 25, 1991)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: C Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AA (Jackson)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
44
AB
161
HR
13
RBI
43
SB
1
SO
33
BB
23
AVG
.360
OBP
.447
SLG
.689
Zunino was the third overall pick and first college player chosen in 2012, a polished offensive catcher out of Florida with no doubts about his ability to stay at the position, offering average to above-average tools but nothing truly plus.
His swing isn't entirely conventional, with a slight drift over his front side, but he keeps his weight back enough to drive the ball. His real asset at the plate is his hands, strong and quick, giving him the ability to go to all fields, and, combined with good leverage from proper hip rotation, at least average power if not better. He's an adequate receiver with an average arm and slowish release, although that last point can be improved with better coaching in pro ball.
He advanced very quickly in his first pro summer, hitting well in a tiny sample in Double-A, and could debut at some point this year, giving the Mariners the long-term catcher they've lacked for years.
Rank Player
16 Jose Fernandez
Age: 20 (DOB: July 31, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: A (Jupiter)
2012 ranking: 18
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
25
IP
134
W
14
L
1
ERA
1.75
SO
158
BB
35
H
89
HR
2
BAA
.191
Fernandez might have had the best year of any pitching prospect in full-season ball, graded just by performance, showing two plus pitches and better command of both of them than expected, reaching high Class A before his 20th birthday in late July.
He comes from just under three-quarters, sits in the mid-90s and will regularly hit the 97-99 range with heavy life (although he's not a big ground ball guy). He throws both a curve and a slider; his downer low-80s curveball is a real swing-and-miss pitch that would miss right-handers' bats in the majors today; the upper-80s slider is also quite effective, with more tilt than the curve to break away from right-handers' bats.
He does have a big frame that sits on the border between "durable" and "heavy," which won't be a problem if he maintains his conditioning but will require more work than the typical pitcher has to do to keep himself in shape. He also needs to develop an average changeup, a pitch he barely had to work on in 2012 because the fastball/breaking ball were so effective, although he did have a modest platoon split at both levels.
The Marlins should push him so that he's challenged in 2013 and forced to make adjustments, including developing that third pitch, to get him closer to that No. 1 starter upside.
Rank Player
17 Anthony Rendon
Age: 22 (DOB: June 6, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization:Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2012 ranking: 17
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
43
AB
133
HR
6
RBI
12
SB
0
SO
29
BB
23
AVG
.233
OBP
.363
SLG
.489
When he's healthy, he hits, but the man with the cut-glass ankles needs to keep himself on the field for a full season in 2013.
Rendon has tremendous bat speed with a very advanced approach at the plate, discriminating well between balls and strikes and putting himself in favorable counts; his strikeouts are less a result of passivity than a result of mistiming pitches within the zone. He drifts a little over his front side but is so rotational that he can still drive the ball out to the gaps, with 40-50 doubles potential even if he tops out at 15 or so homers. He's blocked at third base by Ryan Zimmerman, which leaves future position in doubt. However, he has excellent instincts and great hands. Although he has always been quick on his feet, that will eventually slip if he keeps hurting his ankles -- and second base, a position that is particularly hard on players' lower halves, seems like a disastrous idea.
He made up for some of the four months he missed during the regular season with a strong campaign in the Arizona Fall League, but still needs to show he can hold up for a full season. His bat isn't that far away once he's healthy enough and there's an opportunity in D.C.
Rank Player
18 Gary Sanchez
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 2, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: C Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: A (Tampa)
2012 ranking: 55
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
116
AB
435
HR
18
RBI
85
SB
15
SO
106
BB
32
AVG
.290
OBP
.344
SLG
.485
Sanchez entered 2012 with few doubts about his bat but many about his receiving skills and his maturity; he continued to hit while answering many of those other questions, earning himself the promotion to high Class A he didn't get out of spring training.
He arrived in Tampa last spring in better shape and improved his receiving substantially over the previous year, not just physically but in his effort level on and off the field, to the point where he's now very likely to remain behind the plate. His arm strength is probably a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but some hesitation before he releases the ball has it playing below that, something that can probably be improved in time -- and even as is he can show pop times to second base under two seconds.
Sanchez' offensive potential is tremendous; despite an exaggerated leg kick, he gets his lead foot down in time, keeping his weight back enough to drive the ball, even showing doubles power the other way thanks to strong hands and excellent hip rotation. He's aggressive but not a hacker and doesn't expand the zone too much for a 19-year-old in full season ball, although he'll need to tighten up his pitch recognition before he gets to Double-A.
The Yankees were thrilled with his progress this year, including his improved attitude and work ethic, meaning we can seriously talk about him as the Yankees' catcher of the future, perhaps starting as early as 2015.
Rank Player
19 Aaron Sanchez
Age: 20 (DOB: July 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '12 Level: A (Lansing)
2012 ranking: 96
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
25
IP
90.1
W
8
L
5
ERA
2.49
SO
97
BB
51
H
64
HR
3
BAA
.204
If you talked to the Blue Jays this winter about a trade, there was just one prospect you couldn't discuss; teams could and did pry loose the next four guys in their system, but Aaron Sanchez was untouchable. For good reason: Ace stuff like this is too hard to come by for the Blue Jays to let it go.
Even though his body isn't fully mature yet, Sanchez worked in the mid- to upper 90s all year on restricted pitch counts, turning a lineup over a third time in only five of his 25 outings. His curveball became sharper this year and his changeup, his third-best pitch coming into the season, was so effective that he showed a big reverse platoon split -- allowing just two extra-base hits to left-handed batters all year while punching out nearly a third of them. His delivery is very easy and he gets good life on his fastball to keep the ball on the ground. Aside from mot being stretched out to throw 150-plus innings, Sanchez also has to improve his command and control, something no one seriously doubts he'll do given his makeup, his athleticism and how easily he repeats his delivery. It's time for him to take that leap in 2013.
Look for him to start in high Class A and build up to 130 innings or so this year, with a possible ETA of 2014 and a projection as a No. 1 starter a few years beyond that.
Rank Player
20 Jameson Taillon
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 18, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: AA (Altoona)
2012 ranking: 16
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
26
IP
142
W
9
L
8
ERA
3.55
SO
116
BB
38
H
120
HR
10
BAA
.225
Taillon has top-of-the-rotation stuff, not that far behind teammate Gerrit Cole's arsenal, but doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect given what comes out of his arm and may be more of a 1A to Cole's 1 when it's all said and done.
In his defense, the Pirates have done a lot with Taillon to clean up his delivery, which was more of a "me throw hard now" approach in high school, while also mixing in a two-seamer up to 95 mph to balance the lack of deception from his arm action. His curveball remains a plus pitch and his changeup has improved to the point where it's a legitimate third offering right now. He was on a tight leash early in the season, but acquitted himself well in three Double-A starts at the end of the year, even getting up to 26 batters faced in his last outing, walking just one guy total in those starts.
With better fastball command and more comfort with the two-seamer as an alternative to throwing it through the catcher, he'll come a lot closer to the pitcher we thought the Pirates were getting with the second overall pick in 2010.
Rank Player
21 Shelby Miller
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: Majors (Cardinals)
2012 ranking: 5
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
27
IP
136.2
W
11
L
10
ERA
4.74
SO
160
BB
50
H
138
HR
24
BAA
.260
Miller had a down-and-up year, struggling for much of the season with his delivery, resulting in flatter stuff and reduced command that explain the high home run rate he suffered in Triple-A. By early August, he'd restored his old mechanics, and the Miller you saw in the majors in September, lighting up the Reds on the final day of the season, is the guy you'll see in the Cardinals' rotation sooner rather than later.
His fastball will reach 97 mph, but he'll sit as a starter in the low- to mid-90s; his hard curveball is his out pitch in the upper 70s to low 80s, while his changeup continues to improve and will flash above-average. Miller's first/second-half splits from Triple-A tell the story of his mechanical issues; after the break, he walked just seven with 70 punchouts and gave up seven of his 24 homers. He's always going to be a little fly-ball prone because of the lack of life on his fastball, but he has the easy delivery to allow him to command it and the out-pitch breaking ball to miss bats.
The Cardinals entertained trade proposals involving Miller, but given how far he has come and the uncertainty around Jaime Garcia's health, I imagine he's untouchable right now.
Rank Player
22 Byron Buxton
Age: 19 (DOB: Dec. 18, 1993)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
48
AB
155
HR
5
RBI
20
SB
11
SO
41
BB
19
AVG
.248
OBP
.344
SLG
.448
The second pick in last year's draft, Buxton was one of the class' top athletes: an 80 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with barely any body fat, a plus center fielder who could sit in the low 90s on the mound, but who played high school ball in rural Georgia and showed almost no power in his senior year.
Buxton resembles a young Eric Davis physically, running as well and effortlessly as Davis did before injuries interrupted his career, even better underway than he is home to first. Like Billy Hamilton, Buxton can handle center right now even though his reads on balls need some improvement. Buxton has quick wrists and gets good rotation in his right-handed swing, with good hand-eye coordination but a slight tendency for his swing to get long on balls out of the zone. He has the hip rotation and extension to eventually hit for above-average power, although his back foot comes off the ground as he rotates, which will make it harder for him to drive the ball until it's corrected. After a slow start in pro ball where he started 1-for-27, Buxton hit .290/.380/.529 the rest of the way in 138 at-bats across two levels, more in line with expectations for a slightly older high school senior and giving him a chance to start 2013 in full-season ball at age 19.
He might be a slow mover like fellow Twins prospect Aaron Hicks, but has similar upside as an impact defender in center who can contribute with the bat as well.
Rank Player
23 Kaleb Cowart
Age: 20 (DOB: June 2, 1992)
Bats: BothThrows: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '12 Level: A (Inland Empire)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
135
AB
526
HR
16
RBI
103
SB
14
SO
111
BB
67
AVG
.276
OBP
.358
SLG
.452
Cowart now ranks as the top prospect in a depleted Angels system, but he'd be at or near the top of most teams' lists on his own merits as a potentially plus defender at third who looks like he'll hit and hit for power.
A two-way star in high school who topped out at 96 mph off the mound, Cowart has great actions at third and really good hands as well as a plus arm, although his release isn't natural for an infielder. At the plate, Cowart is a legitimate switch-hitter, even though his left-handed swing can get a little long, with more power hitting left-handed but better contact when hitting right-handed. His at-bats continue to improve even as he moves up the ladder, and he has proved to be less raw at the plate than expected given how weak his high school competition in rural Georgia was.
The Angels don't have a lot of impact in their system right now, and Cowart is their best chance to produce another homegrown star who can produce 4-5 wins above replacement in a season.
Rank Player
24 Carlos Correa
Age: 18 (DOB: Sept. 22, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Greeneville)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
50
AB
190
HR
3
RBI
12
SB
6
SO
44
BB
12
AVG
.258
OBP
.305
SLG
.400
The first overall pick in last year's draft, Correa signed for well under the pick's recommended signing bonus, but was second on my draft board and a valid top selection based strictly on merit; 17-year-old infielders with his kind of raw power and hand-eye coordination aren't terribly easy to come by.
Correa gets tremendous torque from his hip rotation and stays extremely balanced through contact, even though his bat speed is so good it might knock a less coordinated hitter down. He's athletic enough to stay at short now, with plenty of arm, but he's going to be so well-built and physical that it's hard to imagine that he'll stay in the middle of the field. Third base is the most likely destination, one he should be able to handle without trouble.
As a potential 30-homer bat who'll be strong defensively, he has star potential over there, and at 17 he has plenty of time to prove the Astros wise for making him the centerpiece of their 2012 draft class.
Rank Player
25 Trevor Bauer
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 17, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '12 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2012 ranking: 21
2012 MINORS STATS
GM
22
IP
130.1
W
12
L
2
ERA
2.42
SO
157
BB
61
H
107
HR
9
BAA
.230
Forget, for the moment, what you think you know about Bauer, or what you heard second- or third-hand -- some of it from the Diamondbacks organization after Bauer had already traded him to the Indians. If I told you your club could acquire a 22-year-old starter who'd won the Golden Spikes Award in his junior year, who could run his four-seamer up to 97 mph, had a true out-pitch curveball he needed to throw for strikes more consistently, and who was an intelligent kid with strong opinions on pitching plans and maintaining his delivery, would you want him on your team eight days a week or nine?
Bauer's big-league tenure in 2012 was a fiasco, heading downhill when he strained a groin muscle in his first outing and didn't speak up and hitting bottom when he and Miguel Montero ended up in a public feud over their lack of coordination on how to attack hitters, but the biggest problem of all was that Bauer didn't throw strikes when he was behind in the count. Pac 12 hitters might chase stuff out of the zone when they're up 2-0 or 3-1, but most big league hitters won't, and until Bauer shows he can throw his two primary pitches for quality strikes, they'll wait him out.
Given his age and intelligence, there's no reason to think Bauer can't make that adjustment in time, and Cleveland has every incentive to help him get there. I think they just stole a No. 2 starter from Arizona, and even if my long-term concerns about his complex delivery hold true, he might give them 600-800 high-quality innings before anything goes wrong.
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