- Thread starter
- #1
This is my first formal prospect ranking for the 2014 Rule 4 draft, since we now have six weekends of college baseball in the books and most high school prospects have at least started their seasons. It's a very deep draft, especially in right-handed pitching, so that teams without first-round picks can actually feel pretty good about who they'll get when they do select. (Except Baltimore -- the draft starts June 5 and the Orioles pick sometime around the Fourth of July.)
The draft is weaker on the position-player side, especially up the middle, where there are few catchers and even fewer shortstops. That doesn't mean we won't see teams elevate second-tier bats to go for perceived safety in the first round, but many of those picks would involve reaching for a slightly inferior player.
This ranking also has a different name at the top from my preseason look at tiers of prospects and the rough cut at a top 30 that Chris Crawford and I did in October. That's due both to the strong performance of the new No. 1 prospect and the disappointing showing to date from the player who used to hold that spot.
As always, I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" a thousand times across 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power. David Ortiz has 20 speed. Carlos Gomez is an 80 defender. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.
1 Brady Aiken POS: LHP HT: 6-4WT: 205School: Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego)
Analysis: He's a 6-foot-4 left-hander who's hitting 95 mph regularly with his fastball, and he complements that with a plus curveball and future-plus changeup along with a good delivery and some projection remaining. He's not Clayton Kershaw, but it's a pretty good version of the Kershaw Starter Kit.
2 Tyler Kolek POS: RHP HT: 6-5WT: 270School: Shepherd (Texas) HS
Analysis: Kolek is huge: 6-foot-5, 270 pounds. He hits 100 mph and hasn't surrendered a hit all spring.
3 Carlos Rodon POS: LHP HT: 6-3WT: 234School: NC State
Analysis: Rodon came into the year as the consensus No. 1 prospect, but hasn't shown the same stuff he had last spring or summer, sitting with an average fastball, a great but not grade-80 slider and below-average command.
4 Tyler Beede POS: RHP HT: 6-4WT: 215School: Vanderbilt
Analysis: The first-round pick from 2011 who turned down the Blue Jays out of high school seems to have put it all together this spring, with three above-average pitches and finally the command we've all been waiting to see from him.
5 Grant Holmes POS: RHP HT: 6-2WT: 190School: Conway (S.C.) HS
Analysis: Holmes hit 98 mph earlier this spring and works with an above-average to plus fastball regularly, showing great feel and control, and he has a body that's close to ready now.
6 Jeff Hoffman POS: RHP HT: 6-4WT: 192School: East Carolina
Analysis: Hoffman is very athletic and can hit 97, but the plus breaking ball he showed in the Cape Cod League last summer hasn't been there this spring, and hitters have squared up his fastball too often.
7 Alex Jackson POS: CB/T: R/R HT: 6-2WT: 210School: Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego)
Analysis: Jackson might not catch at the next level, but he should hit; he has a strong, simple swing and a long track record of performing in summer events dating back to 2012.
8 Luis Ortiz POS: RHP HT: 6-3WT: 220School: Sanger HS (Fresno, Calif.)
Analysis: Ortiz, like Holmes, has a mature body already, and will show an above-average fastball and breaking ball combination, with an improving feel for how to pitch.
9 Nick Gordon POS: SS B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 170School: Olympia HS (Orlando, Fla.)
Analysis: Son of Tom "Flash" Gordon -- and brother of Dodgers infielder Dee Gordon -- Nick is up to 91 mph off the mound but a better all-around prospect as an above-average defender at short who can hit, and he has added enough muscle to produce at least doubles power.
10 Dylan Cease POS: RHP HT: 6-2WT: 180School: Milton (Ga.) HS
Analysis: Cease's status here is tentative, as he missed his most recent start because of a tender elbow. But he had gotten up to 100 mph earlier this spring and had dramatically reduced the violence in his delivery.
11 Luke Weaver POS: RHP HT: 6-2WT: 170School: Florida State
Analysis: Weaver outdueled Carlos Rodon earlier this month, working with great command of average to above-average stuff. Scouts love his athleticism but do worry about his svelte build long-term.
12 Bradley Zimmer POS: OF B/T: L/RHT: 6-5WT: 205San Francisco
Analysis: Younger brother of Royals farmhand Kyle, Brad Zimmer is a massive center fielder, but he has the best package of tools among college position players, with power, speed and the ability to hit, although he may end up in a corner outfield spot.
13 Michael Conforto POS: OF B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 215Oregon State
Analysis: Conforto is limited to left field and his tools don't grade out spectacularly, but he can hit and and has some of the best plate discipline in the draft, making him a polished, high-floor pick.
14 Aaron Nola POS: RHP HT: 6-1WT: 196School: LSU
Analysis: Nola, like Weaver, is a polished college starter with a track record of performance and has been handled very carefully by the LSU staff, but his lower arm slot and lack of any plus pitches put him a little behind Weaver and the power arms in the top 10.
15 Sean Newcomb POS: LHP HT: 6-5WT: 240School: Hartford
Analysis: Newcomb will show three plus pitches in some outings, but his command isn't there yet, and between the terrible weather and the equally terrible competition he faces -- he hasn't given up an earned run through four starts -- many scouts have put off seeing him until April or May.
16 Cameron Varga POS: RHP HT: 6-4WT: 205School: Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy
Analysis: Varga's season is just getting underway; he was dominant at the Perfect Game event in Minneapolis last June, but a cyst in his stomach cut his summer short. So he hasn't been seen in more than eight months.
17 Kyle Schwarber POS: C/1BB/T: L/R HT: 6-0WT: 240Indiana
Analysis: The consensus on Schwarber seems to be that he's the best overall offensive prospect in the college ranks, considering hitting and power, but that he's more likely to end up at first base than behind the plate. A team that thinks he can catch in pro ball could easily take him in the top 10.
18 Michael Chavis POS: 3BB/T: R/R HT: 5-11WT: 180School: Sprayberry HS (Marietta, Ga.)
Analysis: One of the spring's biggest risers, Chavis has plus raw power and seems to have advanced as a hitter, but he'll face some skepticism as a mostly maxed-out 5-foot-11 right-handed hitter.
19 Jacob Gatewood POS: SSB/T: R/R HT: 6-2WT: 210School: Clovis (Calif.) HS
Analysis: Gatewood looked like a top-10 pick after showing huge power all last summer, but high swing-and-miss rates this spring, plus questions over whether he'll remain in the infield, have his stock sliding.
20 Trea Turner POS: SSB/T: R/R HT: 6-1WT: 171NC State
Analysis: An 80-grade runner who rarely strikes out, Turner has just three extra-base hits on the year, exacerbating concerns about his lack of power, and there's a very split camp on whether he can stay at shortstop.
21 Max Pentecost POS: CB/T: R/R HT: 6-2WT: 191Kennesaw State
Analysis: The best college receiver in the class, Pentecost has plus raw power in BP but rarely shows it in games, with just one homer on the season (the whole team has six) after hitting just three last year. So his floor is high, but his ceiling is unclear.
22 Braxton Davidson POS: OFB/T: L/L HT: 6-3WT: 215School: Roberson HS (Asheville, N.C.)
Analysis: One of my favorite pure hitting prospects from last summer, Davidson will be among the best players at next week's National High School Invitational in Cary, N.C., where he'll need to show he can hit and hit for power so scouts will like his profile for a corner outfield spot.
23 Brandon Finnegan POS: LHP HT: 5-11WT: 190School: TCU
Analysis: A potential top-15 pick for a team that believes he can start, Finnegan has two plus pitches and some of the best performance numbers so far among college starters (55 strikeouts and 7 walks in 36 innings). He'll fight biases against sub-6-foot starters and TCU pitchers, as the recent health record of pitchers from there has been poor.
24 Derek Fisher POS: OFB/T: L/R HT: 6-3WT: 210Virginia
Analysis: One of the best athletes in the college crop, Fisher hasn't put it all together offensively yet, and he broke his hamate bone sliding into first base last week. He'll be out until May and won't be 100 percent at the plate when he gets back.
25 Michael Gettys POS: OFB/T: R/R HT: 6-2WT: 205School: Gainesville (Ga.) HS
Analysis: A 70-grade runner with an 80 arm in center -- one of the best outfield arms I have ever seen -- Gettys has the tools of a superstar, except for the hit tool, and continued issues with his swing mechanics make him the most divisive name in the class so far.
Prospects 26-50
RANK PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
26 Jack Flaherty SS Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
27 Matt Chapman 3B Cal-State Fullerton
28 Scott Blewitt RHP Baker HS (Baldwinsville, N.Y.)
29 Alex Blandino 3B Stanford
30 Mike Papi OF Tunkhannock (Pa.) HS
31 Alex Verdugo LHP Sahuaro HS (Tucson, Ariz.)
32 Sean Reid-Foley RHP Sandalwood HS (Jacksonville, Fla.)
33 Andrew Suarez LHP Miami
34 Monte Harrison OF Lee's Summit (Mo.) West HS
35 Foster Griffin LHP First Academy (Orlando, Fla.)
36 Derek Hill OF Elk Grove (Calif.) HS
37 Jacob Nix RHP Los Alamitos (Calif.) HS
38 Mac Marshall LHP Parkview (Ga.) HS
39 Touki Toussaint RHP Coral Springs (Fla.) Christian HS
40 Jake Godfrey RHP Providence Catholic (New Lenox, Ill.)
41 Marcus Wilson OF Junipero Serra HS (Los Angeles)
42 Ti'Quan Forbes SS Columbia (Miss.) HS
43 Matt Imhof LHP Cal-Poly
44 Erick Fedde RHP UNLV
45 Jackson Reetz C/OF Hickman (Neb.) HS
46 Kodi Medeiros LHP Waiaka HS (Hilo, Hawaii)
47 Zech Lemond RHP Rice
48 Jordan Brink LHP Fresno State
49 Chase Vallot C St. Thomas More (Youngsville, La.)
50 A.J. Reed 1B Kentucky
The draft is weaker on the position-player side, especially up the middle, where there are few catchers and even fewer shortstops. That doesn't mean we won't see teams elevate second-tier bats to go for perceived safety in the first round, but many of those picks would involve reaching for a slightly inferior player.
This ranking also has a different name at the top from my preseason look at tiers of prospects and the rough cut at a top 30 that Chris Crawford and I did in October. That's due both to the strong performance of the new No. 1 prospect and the disappointing showing to date from the player who used to hold that spot.
As always, I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" a thousand times across 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power. David Ortiz has 20 speed. Carlos Gomez is an 80 defender. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.
1 Brady Aiken POS: LHP HT: 6-4WT: 205School: Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego)
Analysis: He's a 6-foot-4 left-hander who's hitting 95 mph regularly with his fastball, and he complements that with a plus curveball and future-plus changeup along with a good delivery and some projection remaining. He's not Clayton Kershaw, but it's a pretty good version of the Kershaw Starter Kit.
2 Tyler Kolek POS: RHP HT: 6-5WT: 270School: Shepherd (Texas) HS
Analysis: Kolek is huge: 6-foot-5, 270 pounds. He hits 100 mph and hasn't surrendered a hit all spring.
3 Carlos Rodon POS: LHP HT: 6-3WT: 234School: NC State
Analysis: Rodon came into the year as the consensus No. 1 prospect, but hasn't shown the same stuff he had last spring or summer, sitting with an average fastball, a great but not grade-80 slider and below-average command.
4 Tyler Beede POS: RHP HT: 6-4WT: 215School: Vanderbilt
Analysis: The first-round pick from 2011 who turned down the Blue Jays out of high school seems to have put it all together this spring, with three above-average pitches and finally the command we've all been waiting to see from him.
5 Grant Holmes POS: RHP HT: 6-2WT: 190School: Conway (S.C.) HS
Analysis: Holmes hit 98 mph earlier this spring and works with an above-average to plus fastball regularly, showing great feel and control, and he has a body that's close to ready now.
6 Jeff Hoffman POS: RHP HT: 6-4WT: 192School: East Carolina
Analysis: Hoffman is very athletic and can hit 97, but the plus breaking ball he showed in the Cape Cod League last summer hasn't been there this spring, and hitters have squared up his fastball too often.
7 Alex Jackson POS: CB/T: R/R HT: 6-2WT: 210School: Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego)
Analysis: Jackson might not catch at the next level, but he should hit; he has a strong, simple swing and a long track record of performing in summer events dating back to 2012.
8 Luis Ortiz POS: RHP HT: 6-3WT: 220School: Sanger HS (Fresno, Calif.)
Analysis: Ortiz, like Holmes, has a mature body already, and will show an above-average fastball and breaking ball combination, with an improving feel for how to pitch.
9 Nick Gordon POS: SS B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 170School: Olympia HS (Orlando, Fla.)
Analysis: Son of Tom "Flash" Gordon -- and brother of Dodgers infielder Dee Gordon -- Nick is up to 91 mph off the mound but a better all-around prospect as an above-average defender at short who can hit, and he has added enough muscle to produce at least doubles power.
10 Dylan Cease POS: RHP HT: 6-2WT: 180School: Milton (Ga.) HS
Analysis: Cease's status here is tentative, as he missed his most recent start because of a tender elbow. But he had gotten up to 100 mph earlier this spring and had dramatically reduced the violence in his delivery.
11 Luke Weaver POS: RHP HT: 6-2WT: 170School: Florida State
Analysis: Weaver outdueled Carlos Rodon earlier this month, working with great command of average to above-average stuff. Scouts love his athleticism but do worry about his svelte build long-term.
12 Bradley Zimmer POS: OF B/T: L/RHT: 6-5WT: 205San Francisco
Analysis: Younger brother of Royals farmhand Kyle, Brad Zimmer is a massive center fielder, but he has the best package of tools among college position players, with power, speed and the ability to hit, although he may end up in a corner outfield spot.
13 Michael Conforto POS: OF B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 215Oregon State
Analysis: Conforto is limited to left field and his tools don't grade out spectacularly, but he can hit and and has some of the best plate discipline in the draft, making him a polished, high-floor pick.
14 Aaron Nola POS: RHP HT: 6-1WT: 196School: LSU
Analysis: Nola, like Weaver, is a polished college starter with a track record of performance and has been handled very carefully by the LSU staff, but his lower arm slot and lack of any plus pitches put him a little behind Weaver and the power arms in the top 10.
15 Sean Newcomb POS: LHP HT: 6-5WT: 240School: Hartford
Analysis: Newcomb will show three plus pitches in some outings, but his command isn't there yet, and between the terrible weather and the equally terrible competition he faces -- he hasn't given up an earned run through four starts -- many scouts have put off seeing him until April or May.
16 Cameron Varga POS: RHP HT: 6-4WT: 205School: Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy
Analysis: Varga's season is just getting underway; he was dominant at the Perfect Game event in Minneapolis last June, but a cyst in his stomach cut his summer short. So he hasn't been seen in more than eight months.
17 Kyle Schwarber POS: C/1BB/T: L/R HT: 6-0WT: 240Indiana
Analysis: The consensus on Schwarber seems to be that he's the best overall offensive prospect in the college ranks, considering hitting and power, but that he's more likely to end up at first base than behind the plate. A team that thinks he can catch in pro ball could easily take him in the top 10.
18 Michael Chavis POS: 3BB/T: R/R HT: 5-11WT: 180School: Sprayberry HS (Marietta, Ga.)
Analysis: One of the spring's biggest risers, Chavis has plus raw power and seems to have advanced as a hitter, but he'll face some skepticism as a mostly maxed-out 5-foot-11 right-handed hitter.
19 Jacob Gatewood POS: SSB/T: R/R HT: 6-2WT: 210School: Clovis (Calif.) HS
Analysis: Gatewood looked like a top-10 pick after showing huge power all last summer, but high swing-and-miss rates this spring, plus questions over whether he'll remain in the infield, have his stock sliding.
20 Trea Turner POS: SSB/T: R/R HT: 6-1WT: 171NC State
Analysis: An 80-grade runner who rarely strikes out, Turner has just three extra-base hits on the year, exacerbating concerns about his lack of power, and there's a very split camp on whether he can stay at shortstop.
21 Max Pentecost POS: CB/T: R/R HT: 6-2WT: 191Kennesaw State
Analysis: The best college receiver in the class, Pentecost has plus raw power in BP but rarely shows it in games, with just one homer on the season (the whole team has six) after hitting just three last year. So his floor is high, but his ceiling is unclear.
22 Braxton Davidson POS: OFB/T: L/L HT: 6-3WT: 215School: Roberson HS (Asheville, N.C.)
Analysis: One of my favorite pure hitting prospects from last summer, Davidson will be among the best players at next week's National High School Invitational in Cary, N.C., where he'll need to show he can hit and hit for power so scouts will like his profile for a corner outfield spot.
23 Brandon Finnegan POS: LHP HT: 5-11WT: 190School: TCU
Analysis: A potential top-15 pick for a team that believes he can start, Finnegan has two plus pitches and some of the best performance numbers so far among college starters (55 strikeouts and 7 walks in 36 innings). He'll fight biases against sub-6-foot starters and TCU pitchers, as the recent health record of pitchers from there has been poor.
24 Derek Fisher POS: OFB/T: L/R HT: 6-3WT: 210Virginia
Analysis: One of the best athletes in the college crop, Fisher hasn't put it all together offensively yet, and he broke his hamate bone sliding into first base last week. He'll be out until May and won't be 100 percent at the plate when he gets back.
25 Michael Gettys POS: OFB/T: R/R HT: 6-2WT: 205School: Gainesville (Ga.) HS
Analysis: A 70-grade runner with an 80 arm in center -- one of the best outfield arms I have ever seen -- Gettys has the tools of a superstar, except for the hit tool, and continued issues with his swing mechanics make him the most divisive name in the class so far.
Prospects 26-50
RANK PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
26 Jack Flaherty SS Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
27 Matt Chapman 3B Cal-State Fullerton
28 Scott Blewitt RHP Baker HS (Baldwinsville, N.Y.)
29 Alex Blandino 3B Stanford
30 Mike Papi OF Tunkhannock (Pa.) HS
31 Alex Verdugo LHP Sahuaro HS (Tucson, Ariz.)
32 Sean Reid-Foley RHP Sandalwood HS (Jacksonville, Fla.)
33 Andrew Suarez LHP Miami
34 Monte Harrison OF Lee's Summit (Mo.) West HS
35 Foster Griffin LHP First Academy (Orlando, Fla.)
36 Derek Hill OF Elk Grove (Calif.) HS
37 Jacob Nix RHP Los Alamitos (Calif.) HS
38 Mac Marshall LHP Parkview (Ga.) HS
39 Touki Toussaint RHP Coral Springs (Fla.) Christian HS
40 Jake Godfrey RHP Providence Catholic (New Lenox, Ill.)
41 Marcus Wilson OF Junipero Serra HS (Los Angeles)
42 Ti'Quan Forbes SS Columbia (Miss.) HS
43 Matt Imhof LHP Cal-Poly
44 Erick Fedde RHP UNLV
45 Jackson Reetz C/OF Hickman (Neb.) HS
46 Kodi Medeiros LHP Waiaka HS (Hilo, Hawaii)
47 Zech Lemond RHP Rice
48 Jordan Brink LHP Fresno State
49 Chase Vallot C St. Thomas More (Youngsville, La.)
50 A.J. Reed 1B Kentucky
