Long term investment potential of...

[Topnotchsy]

My buddy had the Leaf R&S auto about a year ago and sold it for 814.00, so I can verify it does exist

As to your question, yes and no.

Good because a true collector will know it exists, and will be willing to pay for it when he sees it

Bad because it might be a while before both of those happen

I'm honestly unsure what you are saying here. If you could expound I'd appreciate it.

As for the card existing; I know it exists. I was just wondering if cards like these in general offer better investment potential than a more mainstream card.

I said gave 2 small reasons why it is a good investment, and why it isnt.

In my opinion, no, it is not a good "investment" in flipping terms, but yes, a safe investment in "collecting" terms.

It's like gold. You couldve had gold for 215 an ounce 8 years ago, now, 8 years later, its at close to 1000 an ounce (roughly). Now, if 8 years ago you purchased gold at 215, and tried to resell it 3 months later, you probably lost money (because how many dealers will pay you what you bought it at? thats not good business or how retail works), or gained a very small amount. Why, because gold is rare (thats why its expensive and not everybody can have it), and usually increases at a stable price slowly. It rarely fluctuates to the prices that other commodities such as oil does. Same with the Pujols R&S, it's rare, and its immediate profit range is not very good.

Long term however, gold is a great investment because 1) people want it 2) barring something drastic happening, it retains, and more often than not gains value 3) limited quantity of it available....etc, etc, etc

I am speaking in terms of stability over periods of time. Pujols is a 40hr/120rbi guy constantly, however, if he were to hit 80 hr in a season, well, obviously his prices would skyrocket, and if there was somehow a shortage or sudden increase in the wanting of gold, of course, prices would also increase dramatically

So I guess the real question is what do you consider a "good investment?" One that money can be made quickly on, or, a card that will retain and gain value over the years?

I'm honestly still not certain I follow what you mean. My discussion was not one regarding Pujols specifically, it was a question of which card of any player tends to be the better investment, one that is rarer but of a more obscure brand, or a more common, more well known version. Was this what you were referring to, or to Pujols as an investment?

 

[mlbsalltimegreats]

This statement is only in terms of Pujols. I am probably in the minority when I say Pujols has not hit his ceiling and the reason being is because he is the only guy in the league that has the true potiential to hit over .400 which that right there would bring in a lot of new people and huge intrest back thus the dramatic increase in his cards again, then he has the potiential for the Triple crown which again would bring in new people and again bring back huge intrest in his stuff. Point being that he is the only player I see ever to be able to reach any huge milestone like the one's I pointed above and not including the Hr record, the Rbi, ect. ect. and if he were to hit one of these records you and everybody else knows the Media would blow this up and anyting you bought now could double or triple in price. I am a pujols fan so even thought I am buying his stuff now, I am acually not taking much of a risk as even if he doesnt hit any of these milestones I am still happy with my buy's. Agian I have alot more trust that pujols will at some point hit one of these milestones/records than other people . So I guess investing in someone also has a little to do with how you feel about a certain player. I have taken advantage of Pujols current sales hopefully more do .

 

[Topnotchsy]

This statement is only in terms of Pujols. I am probably in the minority when I say Pujols has not hit his ceiling and the reason being is because he is the only guy in the league that has the true potiential to hit over .400 which that right there would bring in a lot of new people and huge intrest back thus the dramatic increase in his cards again, then he has the potiential for the Triple crown which again would bring in new people and again bring back huge intrest in his stuff.

We are in the minority right now, but I too am confident Pujols is a good investment, simply because of how underpriced his cards have become (IMO.)

 

[predatorkj]

This statement is only in terms of Pujols. I am probably in the minority when I say Pujols has not hit his ceiling and the reason being is because he is the only guy in the league that has the true potiential to hit over .400 which that right there would bring in a lot of new people and huge intrest back thus the dramatic increase in his cards again, then he has the potiential for the Triple crown which again would bring in new people and again bring back huge intrest in his stuff. Point being that he is the only player I see ever to be able to reach any huge milestone like the one's I pointed above and not including the Hr record, the Rbi, ect. ect. and if he were to hit one of these records you and everybody else knows the Media would blow this up and anyting you bought now could double or triple in price. I am a pujols fan so even thought I am buying his stuff now, I am acually not taking much of a risk as even if he doesnt hit any of these milestones I am still happy with my buy's. Agian I have alot more trust that pujols will at some point hit one of these milestones/records than other people . So I guess investing in someone also has a little to do with how you feel about a certain player. I have taken advantage of Pujols current sales hopefully more do .

I totally agree and I also agree with the other poster who mentioned the A-Rod spikes over the past few years.His sp rookie went double and then triple at some points as to what it was booking for and selling for originally.And in a short amount of time.

I don't think your going to lose much money if you start buying Pujols now but in the future...his cards will go up.They may not sustain whatever they start to bring in but as of right now...I don't see you taking a loss.He will break some records and as he does his stuff goes up.Same with Mac and Bonds even with the roids thing.If you got in on that train then you made a fortune for way overproduced cards.

As for the thought of buying up rare rookies that may or may not be considered the most popular...its shoot or miss.It also depends on the rarity.But I think they still have a market and are worth getting.I know as a collector of Bagwell that some of the rookies of his that are the main ones to have are not the most appealing for me.I also feel the same way about A-Rod and Jeter.If there are options then most player collectors and even just investors or bandwagon buyers will go for them.Trust me...while A-Rod SP rookies were selling like hotcakes there were numerous people buying up his other lesser priced rookies because they could not afford the higher priced more popular versions.So as long as there are options and demand...I don't see how you could go wrong.

I know a lot of people who settled for Pence's Hot Prospects auto'd rookies because they were lower numbered and actually cheaper than the sp prospects version.The people who had sense enough to snag them for pennies on the dollar and flip them made it well worth it for them to flip and they made money.Most buyers did not have $300-$500 to buy his rookie but wanted one.So they turn to the cheaper of the two.I do believe if you buy some of the off beat Pujols stuff...and you can flip it in the future for less than his popular versions are going for and still make money...you would be doing good.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I totally agree and I also agree with the other poster who mentioned the A-Rod spikes over the past few years.His sp rookie went double and then triple at some points as to what it was booking for and selling for originally.And in a short amount of time.

I don't think your going to lose much money if you start buying Pujols now but in the future...his cards will go up.They may not sustain whatever they start to bring in but as of right now...I don't see you taking a loss.He will break some records and as he does his stuff goes up.Same with Mac and Bonds even with the roids thing.If you got in on that train then you made a fortune for way overproduced cards.

As for the thought of buying up rare rookies that may or may not be considered the most popular...its shoot or miss.It also depends on the rarity.But I think they still have a market and are worth getting.I know as a collector of Bagwell that some of the rookies of his that are the main ones to have are not the most appealing for me.I also feel the same way about A-Rod and Jeter.If there are options then most player collectors and even just investors or bandwagon buyers will go for them.Trust me...while A-Rod SP rookies were selling like hotcakes there were numerous people buying up his other lesser priced rookies because they could not afford the higher priced more popular versions.So as long as there are options and demand...I don't see how you could go wrong.

I know a lot of people who settled for Pence's Hot Prospects auto'd rookies because they were lower numbered and actually cheaper than the sp prospects version.The people who had sense enough to snag them for pennies on the dollar and flip them made it well worth it for them to flip and they made money.Most buyers did not have $300-$500 to buy his rookie but wanted one.So they turn to the cheaper of the two.I do believe if you buy some of the off beat Pujols stuff...and you can flip it in the future for less than his popular versions are going for and still make money...you would be doing good.

I definitely agree with what you are saying, including the Pence and Arod examples. The cards I'm thinking about are a bit different though. For example, I have a 2001 Donruss Signature Mark Teixeira Auto /25 which is a perfect example. It is by far his rarest autograph, and the price tag was not small, but it's not nearly as well known as his Ultimate Collection. My question was regarding a card like that where the initial price tag is often very high, and after a while the card is near impossible to find, but on the other hand, as time goes on fewer and fewer people know that the card even exists.

 

[matfanofold]

I'd just like to say that I think Pujols, in no way, has a chance to hit .400.



Pujols is a .330 hitter with power. His ceiling so far was .359 and that was with 212 hits and 79 walks. I can not forsee Pujols with the ammount of at bats he gets ever actually getting close to .400 unless he can walk about 150+/- times and get 250+/- hits. Which he will never do.

Infact, I'm not sure a logical argument can be made for anyone right now as having a good shot(potential) at .400...

 

[Topnotchsy]

I'd just like to say that I think Pujols, in no way, has a chance to hit .400.



Pujols is a .330 hitter with power. His ceiling so far was .359 and that was with 212 hits and 79 walks. I can not forsee Pujols with the ammount of at bats he gets ever actually getting close to .400 unless he can walk about 150+/- times and get 250+/- hits. Which he will never do.

Infact, I'm not sure a logical argument can be made for anyone right now as having a good shot(potential) at .400...

I don't disagree. A couple of months at .400 to start a season is just one of a myriad of ways that cards see serious increases. It's hard to pick the players who will be super hot (whether it be a .400 start, 4 homer game, homers in 8 consecutive games, hit streak etc. etc.) but there are few players more likely than Pujols to do one of these sooner or later.

 

[predatorkj]

I totally agree and I also agree with the other poster who mentioned the A-Rod spikes over the past few years.His sp rookie went double and then triple at some points as to what it was booking for and selling for originally.And in a short amount of time.

I don't think your going to lose much money if you start buying Pujols now but in the future...his cards will go up.They may not sustain whatever they start to bring in but as of right now...I don't see you taking a loss.He will break some records and as he does his stuff goes up.Same with Mac and Bonds even with the roids thing.If you got in on that train then you made a fortune for way overproduced cards.

As for the thought of buying up rare rookies that may or may not be considered the most popular...its shoot or miss.It also depends on the rarity.But I think they still have a market and are worth getting.I know as a collector of Bagwell that some of the rookies of his that are the main ones to have are not the most appealing for me.I also feel the same way about A-Rod and Jeter.If there are options then most player collectors and even just investors or bandwagon buyers will go for them.Trust me...while A-Rod SP rookies were selling like hotcakes there were numerous people buying up his other lesser priced rookies because they could not afford the higher priced more popular versions.So as long as there are options and demand...I don't see how you could go wrong.

I know a lot of people who settled for Pence's Hot Prospects auto'd rookies because they were lower numbered and actually cheaper than the sp prospects version.The people who had sense enough to snag them for pennies on the dollar and flip them made it well worth it for them to flip and they made money.Most buyers did not have $300-$500 to buy his rookie but wanted one.So they turn to the cheaper of the two.I do believe if you buy some of the off beat Pujols stuff...and you can flip it in the future for less than his popular versions are going for and still make money...you would be doing good.

I definitely agree with what you are saying, including the Pence and Arod examples. The cards I'm thinking about are a bit different though. For example, I have a 2001 Donruss Signature Mark Teixeira Auto /25 which is a perfect example. It is by far his rarest autograph, and the price tag was not small, but it's not nearly as well known as his Ultimate Collection. My question was regarding a card like that where the initial price tag is often very high, and after a while the card is near impossible to find, but on the other hand, as time goes on fewer and fewer people know that the card even exists.

I think the fact that they become forgotten makes them great candidates for stocking up on them.I mean...if you throw them up when interest is piqued...you already have an advantage because they will be different from what people are seeing normally on ebay.And the fact they are rare and there will most likely not be many for sale...sounds like a good bet to me.

 

[predatorkj]

I'd just like to say that I think Pujols, in no way, has a chance to hit .400.



Pujols is a .330 hitter with power. His ceiling so far was .359 and that was with 212 hits and 79 walks. I can not forsee Pujols with the ammount of at bats he gets ever actually getting close to .400 unless he can walk about 150+/- times and get 250+/- hits. Which he will never do.

Infact, I'm not sure a logical argument can be made for anyone right now as having a good shot(potential) at .400...

I don't disagree. A couple of months at .400 to start a season is just one of a myriad of ways that cards see serious increases. It's hard to pick the players who will be super hot (whether it be a .400 start, 4 homer game, homers in 8 consecutive games, hit streak etc. etc.) but there are few players more likely than Pujols to do one of these sooner or later.

Yeah but if you did what I do...you wouldn't have to worry about it.I don't put all my money into it and I only buy for my pc but I have just about a rookie or more for every player I collect.I collect just about everybody you can think of.Now if someone were to take some decent money and buy up a bunch of not so common but rare rookies of a good number of the top players of today...then you would definitley not have to worry about this.You would be set.Of course you cannot always factor in people like J.J. Hardy who went from being worth nothing to be worth a little change here and there.But if you had a ton of his cards that you got cheaply...and were able to even sell them for $3 a pop...you could have made a small fortune.There is a guy who does this at one of my local card shops.He buys lots of rookies of all kinds of different players and then hangs onto them.He has a huge collection but he always has tons of cards of players when they break out and he always makes a killing even though they are not super valuable.Even the base rookies he does great with.When Pence got hot...he had every pence card you could get ahold of.When Hardy got hot he had them.When Ryan Howard and A-Rod were getting hotter than they already are he had them.He got them all cheap.And he had all kinds from base rookies to auto'd versions.All of which he picks up when they are down.I always told him if he got on beckett (back when they had the old boards up)he would know who to stock up on.Luckily he doesn't though so I always can go in there and stock up before prices climb.

So it is possible but I think what you need to decide is if your comfortable with this since your merely investing and not collecting and you need to decide who to buy and what to buy and when.But yes...it can be done with proven players.And just a word to the wise...Pujols may never hit .400 and all but I would personally stock up on his and A-Rods rookies like they were going out of style.Trust me...they will be climbing.A-Rod only has a few years to go and you will see it.Pujols maybe a few more.But if your merely collecting or looking to stock up...you'd better do it now.They will not get much cheaper than they are now.

 

[lordsepic]

Top,
I always enjoy your posts. While your post is very well analyzed and makes perfect sense at first glance, you need to think even deeper on a subject like this. People looking for Pujols auto cards are more likely than not going to be collectors and it is a 50/50 shot they know what they are looking for or understand what they are after.

Rare cards may be "lost or hidden" on many occasions, but the great cards are never forgotten. Half of this board can prob list some of the hardest to find cards out there right now and let you know within the hour of when it is posted... The other half are clueless to certain things or choose to focus on a specific player or prospects.

No true hardcore collector will ever forget the cards that shift the hobby.

 

[predatorkj]

Top,
I always enjoy your posts. While your post is very well analyzed and makes perfect sense at first glance, you need to think even deeper on a subject like this. People looking for Pujols auto cards are more likely than not going to be collectors and it is a 50/50 shot they know what they are looking for or understand what they are after.

Rare cards may be "lost or hidden" on many occasions, but the great cards are never forgotten. Half of this board can prob list some of the hardest to find cards out there right now and let you know within the hour of when it is posted... The other half are clueless to certain things or choose to focus on a specific player or prospects.

No true hardcore collector will ever forget the cards that shift the hobby.

Eh...I think there is money to be made though because chances are some of these harder to find or forgotten cards are most likely going to go for cheaper than the mainstream big hobby changing cards.And if you become a collector of a guy and see that you can either get the most known card and most popular card of the guy for a high amount but you can essentially get the same card (a rookie auto from his rookie year) that may even be rarer (just going by numbering here and not actual availability as per how many are currently up for auction) then what would you go for?Most people would most likely settle for the cheaper of the two.That way they get what they are after and have basically achieved their goal.They will tell themselves that they can always go back and nab whatever it is that is more popular or expensive later.

I know I am that way.If I can get a rookie card that actually looks cool and for way cheaper than some of the others go for...why not?There are only a few I had to go after that were the actual card to have and that would have been for Kazmir and A-Rod (although I am still not convinced I have A-Rods best base rookie).But for the most part...I get what I am after and save some money and I am content with it.A lot of people will say "Yeah but thats not his best rookie" but its always funny because half the time...they don't even have the card you do.Everybody has the more popular card.So I feel I have something a little more uncommon which makes me feel like I have accomplished something.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Top,
I always enjoy your posts. While your post is very well analyzed and makes perfect sense at first glance, you need to think even deeper on a subject like this. People looking for Pujols auto cards are more likely than not going to be collectors and it is a 50/50 shot they know what they are looking for or understand what they are after.

Rare cards may be "lost or hidden" on many occasions, but the great cards are never forgotten. Half of this board can prob list some of the hardest to find cards out there right now and let you know within the hour of when it is posted... The other half are clueless to certain things or choose to focus on a specific player or prospects.

No true hardcore collector will ever forget the cards that shift the hobby.

I'm always open to being set straight.

I'm not sure we are discussing the same kinds ofcards here. Below is a picture of a card I have:

It is Teixeira's rarest Rookie Autograph and a card I imagine few remember exists, and even fewer are searching for (because it basically never surfaces.) It's not a card that "shifts the hobby" but it is one of Tex's toughest RC cards.

When it comes to cards like these I wonder about the investment potential and how it compares to a more common, Ultimate Collection Auto.

A card that is insanely hard to find, but very mainstream (like a superfractor) is on everyone's radar. A card like this, less so.

 

[lordsepic]

Top,
I always enjoy your posts. While your post is very well analyzed and makes perfect sense at first glance, you need to think even deeper on a subject like this. People looking for Pujols auto cards are more likely than not going to be collectors and it is a 50/50 shot they know what they are looking for or understand what they are after.

Rare cards may be "lost or hidden" on many occasions, but the great cards are never forgotten. Half of this board can prob list some of the hardest to find cards out there right now and let you know within the hour of when it is posted... The other half are clueless to certain things or choose to focus on a specific player or prospects.

No true hardcore collector will ever forget the cards that shift the hobby.

I'm always open to being set straight.

I'm not sure we are discussing the same kinds ofcards here. Below is a picture of a card I have:

It is Teixeira's rarest Rookie Autograph and a card I imagine few remember exists, and even fewer are searching for (because it basically never surfaces.) It's not a card that "shifts the hobby" but it is one of Tex's toughest RC cards.

When it comes to cards like these I wonder about the investment potential and how it compares to a more common, Ultimate Collection Auto.

A card that is insanely hard to find, but very mainstream (like a superfractor) is on everyone's radar. A card like this, less so.

Lots of Tex fans in the hobby and lots of Boston fans in the hobby... there are right times to post it and right ways to post it... If you do it around the signing announcement (if Boston) it will draw cards... when he hits his major milestones or the hall (if he makes it)... Cards like this can bring a fortune if done right

 

[Topnotchsy]

Top,
I always enjoy your posts. While your post is very well analyzed and makes perfect sense at first glance, you need to think even deeper on a subject like this. People looking for Pujols auto cards are more likely than not going to be collectors and it is a 50/50 shot they know what they are looking for or understand what they are after.

Rare cards may be "lost or hidden" on many occasions, but the great cards are never forgotten. Half of this board can prob list some of the hardest to find cards out there right now and let you know within the hour of when it is posted... The other half are clueless to certain things or choose to focus on a specific player or prospects.

No true hardcore collector will ever forget the cards that shift the hobby.

I'm always open to being set straight.

I'm not sure we are discussing the same kinds ofcards here. Below is a picture of a card I have:

It is Teixeira's rarest Rookie Autograph and a card I imagine few remember exists, and even fewer are searching for (because it basically never surfaces.) It's not a card that "shifts the hobby" but it is one of Tex's toughest RC cards.

When it comes to cards like these I wonder about the investment potential and how it compares to a more common, Ultimate Collection Auto.

A card that is insanely hard to find, but very mainstream (like a superfractor) is on everyone's radar. A card like this, less so.

Lots of Tex fans in the hobby and lots of Boston fans in the hobby... there are right times to post it and right ways to post it... If you do it around the signing announcement (if Boston) it will draw cards... when he hits his major milestones or the hall (if he makes it)... Cards like this can bring a fortune if done right

The trends I've seen with cards like these are that they often are very expensive up front, and that means that they may not be the best investment in many occasions, though I do hear you that the potential is there if it is done correctly.

 

[sportscardtheory]

Top,
I always enjoy your posts. While your post is very well analyzed and makes perfect sense at first glance, you need to think even deeper on a subject like this. People looking for Pujols auto cards are more likely than not going to be collectors and it is a 50/50 shot they know what they are looking for or understand what they are after.

Rare cards may be "lost or hidden" on many occasions, but the great cards are never forgotten. Half of this board can prob list some of the hardest to find cards out there right now and let you know within the hour of when it is posted... The other half are clueless to certain things or choose to focus on a specific player or prospects.

No true hardcore collector will ever forget the cards that shift the hobby.

I'm always open to being set straight.

I'm not sure we are discussing the same kinds ofcards here. Below is a picture of a card I have:

It is Teixeira's rarest Rookie Autograph and a card I imagine few remember exists, and even fewer are searching for (because it basically never surfaces.) It's not a card that "shifts the hobby" but it is one of Tex's toughest RC cards.

When it comes to cards like these I wonder about the investment potential and how it compares to a more common, Ultimate Collection Auto.

A card that is insanely hard to find, but very mainstream (like a superfractor) is on everyone's radar. A card like this, less so.

Lots of Tex fans in the hobby and lots of Boston fans in the hobby... there are right times to post it and right ways to post it... If you do it around the signing announcement (if Boston) it will draw cards... when he hits his major milestones or the hall (if he makes it)... Cards like this can bring a fortune if done right

The trends I've seen with cards like these are that they often are very expensive up front, and that means that they may not be the best investment in many occasions, though I do hear you that the potential is there if it is done correctly.

This is the PERFECT card for a Fixed Price Best Offer listing... you could get what you list it at from any random huge Tex fan that doesn't have one and will most likely never see it again. I specialize in hidden gems like these...

 

[Topnotchsy]

This is the PERFECT card for a Fixed Price Best Offer listing... you could get what you list it at from any random huge Tex fan that doesn't have one and will most likely never see it again. I specialize in hidden gems like these...

I agree. The question though, is at what level they would pay? I've owned 2 of these, one of which I bought after Tex's break-out season for $400, (the other was considerably cheaper.) I don't see it selling for that price any time soon (though if he signs with Boston I guess there's a chance.)

 

[ROLLTIDE4LIFE]

The best long term investments are of all-star caliber future hall of fame potential young stars. JUP, Longo, Bruce etc. Imagine if Griffey or even Frank Thomas or Hank Aaron had a gold refractor auto. We do not yet fully understand the potential of some of these big name prospects and young stars top RC Autos after a HOF career.

 

[Topnotchsy]

The best long term investments are of all-star caliber future hall of fame potential young stars. JUP, Longo, Bruce etc. Imagine if Griffey or even Frank Thomas or Hank Aaron had a gold refractor auto. We do not yet fully understand the potential of some of these big name prospects and young stars top RC Autos after a HOF career.

I've felt thiis way for a long time (as had MudcatsFan.) That said, the market has not yet shown that this is true. Looking at the Gold Refractors Auto's and the prices they net, the showings have been somewhat uninspiring. That said, this thought process is one of the reasons that I wonder if the market has seen only a fraction of the potential that there is for its biggest cards.

Of course, when dealing with players like Longo, Bruce and Upton, most of the young guys never do pan out.

 

[Topnotchsy]

This thread has taken some turns, but I'll bump this for comments on either the original topic, or any of the one's mentioned.