Looking at last few months, Albert Pujols as an investment..

[predatorkj]

Here is my take on it...

How do you understand the increases in Pujols RC Auto's this season? His SPx is up close to 100%, and his Bowman Chrome is up significantly (and I imagine others are as well, though I have not followed them closely.)

I really wasn't speaking of the autos since I don't own one of his auto'd RC's and have never seen one outside of ebay for sale.My take on the base rookies was that they will go up significantly with a milestone is reached.But I also think a lot of people are realizing he is going to hit 500+ homers and he doesn't look to slow down for a while.If I remember correctly he just hit number 300 a few days ago?Maybe they are not realizing it as much as they are just sucking it up and going after them.Its not something that's provable no matter what your take is on it. But in my opinion, if you are going after proven players then the best way to invest is with milestones that are attainable in mind.Sure its projection but its not like prospect projection.

You kind of know (or at least you have as good of a handle on it as your going to ever be able to) what to expect from some of these guys.And with the invention of the serial numbered autographed rookie card...who knows what these cards will do.We aren't talking mid 80's-mid 90's rookies here with little if any room to grow.These cards are pretty volatile price wise.The only way we will know for sure on the auto'd rare versions is a handful of years after the hype of the playing career or even hall of fame induction dies down.Will these things drop or will they creep up more and more?Some people may say they will drop but as time marches on...the demand will still be there but the supply will always be limited.Just like a lot of your vintage stuff.

I don't believe that the increase of close to 100% on Pujols RC Auto's is because all of a sudden people realized he's going to hit 500 one day. I think it has more to do with the ebb and flow of the market as players as the market's focus often shifts to and from players. While the potential increases are no where near the 1000% that one might get on a hot prospect, I believe that for most prospectors, when they compare the actual dollars in profit that they get from the few prospects who really explode, compared to their entire inventory, few are seeing really significant returns. Those who know the players and the sets extremely are definitely rewarded by the volatility that the Minor Leagues has to offer, but I wonder how many are truly profiting from this.

I can't say on the prospects bit.My guess is you only hear about the gains and never the losses.

As far as the auto'd rookies for Pujols...I have a hard time believing its all due to the ebb and flow of people focusing on him.That would create a spike.But 100%? Not likely.There are probably many reasons.All I am getting at is if you want to make the easiest and safest investment on a current MLB player the best bet is to go for guys who will reach a milestone.Then everyone is focused on them and you will see a huge spike.What your talking about with the spx rookies would have been hard to foresee.Especially with nothing out of the ordinary happening.Or it could have to do with approaching and passing #300.Like I said...its hard to gauge.

 

[pujolsthomefan33]

Just to throw my .02 cents in.....I have now for the 2nd year in a row, bought a Pujols Bowman Chrome RC AUTO in the offseason around December-January, and sold it in June, and made over $1500 profit both times........and at a lower scale the same can be said for the SPx Pujols....

Another Prime example is Tiger Woods SPA RC AUTOs.....they are a downright steal right now still, but just a couple months ago you could have bought them about $1,000 less.


All 3 will drop again in the dead of winter......


A 4th example is the Topps Traded Miguel Cabrera.....every winter the card dips back down to $250-$300 range and then once again when the season is well under way, they are getting $400-$500 a pop...


TK

 

[hofautos]

Just to throw my .02 cents in.....I have now for the 2nd year in a row, bought a Pujols Bowman Chrome RC AUTO in the offseason around December-January, and sold it in June, and made over $1500 profit both times........and at a lower scale the same can be said for the SPx Pujols....

Another Prime example is Tiger Woods SPA RC AUTOs.....they are a downright steal right now still, but just a couple months ago you could have bought them about $1,000 less.


All 3 will drop again in the dead of winter......


A 4th example is the Topps Traded Miguel Cabrera.....every winter the card dips back down to $250-$300 range and then once again when the season is well under way, they are getting $400-$500 a pop...
TK

the time where you buy in off season, and he has a bad start is when that won't happen.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

This is what most of us should expect will happen. This is why I keep thinking that people buy players when they've got the player on their mind. Correlate the volume of Google searches on a particular player to their card prices and I'm sure you'd find a match.

Just to throw my .02 cents in.....I have now for the 2nd year in a row, bought a Pujols Bowman Chrome RC AUTO in the offseason around December-January, and sold it in June, and made over $1500 profit both times........and at a lower scale the same can be said for the SPx Pujols....

Another Prime example is Tiger Woods SPA RC AUTOs.....they are a downright steal right now still, but just a couple months ago you could have bought them about $1,000 less.


All 3 will drop again in the dead of winter......


A 4th example is the Topps Traded Miguel Cabrera.....every winter the card dips back down to $250-$300 range and then once again when the season is well under way, they are getting $400-$500 a pop...


TK

 

[Topnotchsy]

Just to throw my .02 cents in.....I have now for the 2nd year in a row, bought a Pujols Bowman Chrome RC AUTO in the offseason around December-January, and sold it in June, and made over $1500 profit both times........and at a lower scale the same can be said for the SPx Pujols....

Another Prime example is Tiger Woods SPA RC AUTOs.....they are a downright steal right now still, but just a couple months ago you could have bought them about $1,000 less.

All 3 will drop again in the dead of winter......

A 4th example is the Topps Traded Miguel Cabrera.....every winter the card dips back down to $250-$300 range and then once again when the season is well under way, they are getting $400-$500 a pop...

TK

While I don't have the information in front of me, this is not how I remember how this has gone.

In the case of Pujols last season his SPx pretty much were stagnant through the season and over the year dropped from $400 or so to $300 or so. For Miggy, his cards were never as low as $250-$300 until this past offseason, and also did not see any increases last season (especially after his slow start.) I do not believe the increases that Pujols has seen this season are typical at all. (I don't follow his Bowman Chrome close enough so I can't comment on that, but was your sale on Bowman Chrome typical of prices at that time since I remember them sitting in the $2000 range in the middle of last season and only dropping. (Again, not saying you are wrong as my memory may be faulty and with the Bowman Chrome I know I wasn't paying all that much attention, just trying to understand.)

 

[pujolsthomefan33]

Just to throw my .02 cents in.....I have now for the 2nd year in a row, bought a Pujols Bowman Chrome RC AUTO in the offseason around December-January, and sold it in June, and made over $1500 profit both times........and at a lower scale the same can be said for the SPx Pujols....

Another Prime example is Tiger Woods SPA RC AUTOs.....they are a downright steal right now still, but just a couple months ago you could have bought them about $1,000 less.

All 3 will drop again in the dead of winter......

A 4th example is the Topps Traded Miguel Cabrera.....every winter the card dips back down to $250-$300 range and then once again when the season is well under way, they are getting $400-$500 a pop...

TK

While I don't have the information in front of me, this is not how I remember how this has gone.

In the case of Pujols last season his SPx pretty much were stagnant through the season and over the year dropped from $400 or so to $300 or so. For Miggy, his cards were never as low as $250-$300 until this past offseason, and also did not see any increases last season (especially after his slow start.) I do not believe the increases that Pujols has seen this season are typical at all. (I don't follow his Bowman Chrome close enough so I can't comment on that, but was your sale on Bowman Chrome typical of prices at that time since I remember them sitting in the $2000 range in the middle of last season and only dropping. (Again, not saying you are wrong as my memory may be faulty and with the Bowman Chrome I know I wasn't paying all that much attention, just trying to understand.)

In both instances I bought Pujols and Miggy at the going rate of around $250-$300 on Miggy and $2000ish on the Pujols.......sold Pujols at $3500 and $3600 both times which was about the going rate.

Same holds true with Miggy. Dont EVER recall Pujols Graded Chromes being less than $2K unless it was a low grade. Would NEVER buy a raw one as it is more than likely altered, so I dont know what the market is like on those.


TK

 

[Topnotchsy]

Just to throw my .02 cents in.....I have now for the 2nd year in a row, bought a Pujols Bowman Chrome RC AUTO in the offseason around December-January, and sold it in June, and made over $1500 profit both times........and at a lower scale the same can be said for the SPx Pujols....

Another Prime example is Tiger Woods SPA RC AUTOs.....they are a downright steal right now still, but just a couple months ago you could have bought them about $1,000 less.

All 3 will drop again in the dead of winter......

A 4th example is the Topps Traded Miguel Cabrera.....every winter the card dips back down to $250-$300 range and then once again when the season is well under way, they are getting $400-$500 a pop...

TK

While I don't have the information in front of me, this is not how I remember how this has gone.

In the case of Pujols last season his SPx pretty much were stagnant through the season and over the year dropped from $400 or so to $300 or so. For Miggy, his cards were never as low as $250-$300 until this past offseason, and also did not see any increases last season (especially after his slow start.) I do not believe the increases that Pujols has seen this season are typical at all. (I don't follow his Bowman Chrome close enough so I can't comment on that, but was your sale on Bowman Chrome typical of prices at that time since I remember them sitting in the $2000 range in the middle of last season and only dropping. (Again, not saying you are wrong as my memory may be faulty and with the Bowman Chrome I know I wasn't paying all that much attention, just trying to understand.)

In both instances I bought Pujols and Miggy at the going rate of around $250-$300 on Miggy and $2000ish on the Pujols.......sold Pujols at $3500 and $3600 both times which was about the going rate.

Same holds true with Miggy. Dont EVER recall Pujols Graded Chromes being less than $2K unless it was a low grade. Would NEVER buy a raw one as it is more than likely altered, so I dont know what the market is like on those.

TK

I wasn't actively buying so I'll chalk it up to a poor memory on my part. What grades were they?

 

[pujolsthomefan33]

Just to throw my .02 cents in.....I have now for the 2nd year in a row, bought a Pujols Bowman Chrome RC AUTO in the offseason around December-January, and sold it in June, and made over $1500 profit both times........and at a lower scale the same can be said for the SPx Pujols....

Another Prime example is Tiger Woods SPA RC AUTOs.....they are a downright steal right now still, but just a couple months ago you could have bought them about $1,000 less.

All 3 will drop again in the dead of winter......

A 4th example is the Topps Traded Miguel Cabrera.....every winter the card dips back down to $250-$300 range and then once again when the season is well under way, they are getting $400-$500 a pop...

TK

While I don't have the information in front of me, this is not how I remember how this has gone.

In the case of Pujols last season his SPx pretty much were stagnant through the season and over the year dropped from $400 or so to $300 or so. For Miggy, his cards were never as low as $250-$300 until this past offseason, and also did not see any increases last season (especially after his slow start.) I do not believe the increases that Pujols has seen this season are typical at all. (I don't follow his Bowman Chrome close enough so I can't comment on that, but was your sale on Bowman Chrome typical of prices at that time since I remember them sitting in the $2000 range in the middle of last season and only dropping. (Again, not saying you are wrong as my memory may be faulty and with the Bowman Chrome I know I wasn't paying all that much attention, just trying to understand.)

In both instances I bought Pujols and Miggy at the going rate of around $250-$300 on Miggy and $2000ish on the Pujols.......sold Pujols at $3500 and $3600 both times which was about the going rate.

Same holds true with Miggy. Dont EVER recall Pujols Graded Chromes being less than $2K unless it was a low grade. Would NEVER buy a raw one as it is more than likely altered, so I dont know what the market is like on those.

TK

I wasn't actively buying so I'll chalk it up to a poor memory on my part. What grades were they?

Miggys were all 8.5s or raw....pujols was always a BGS 9 w/10 AUTO. I am actually going to wait till the offseason again this year and go after the Pujols Chromes, Tiger Woods SPAs, Pujols SPx, Miggy Topps Traded, and David Wright Chromes and try and stockpile them.


TK