Obvious splits, is it a bad thing?

[Topnotchsy]

I was reading through Baseball Prospectus's 2010 guide. For Ryan Howard they pointed out his splits and how he is far better against right handers.

It occurred to me that while most people look at distinct splits as a negative ("he can't hit lefties" ) all things being equal, I think it would be better to have a player with a major discrepancy.

Example:

Player 1:
Against righties: .307/.409/.661
Against lefties: .226/.310/.444

Player 2:
Against righties: .279/.376/.586
Against lefties .279/.376/.586

In both cases the player hits .279 with 48 homers, but in the first case there are distinct splits, while in the second the numbers are the same against both sides.

I would think that a split would be very useful. Because the final numbers are the same and you know the strengths and weaknesses, you can play to the strengths and avoid the opportunities that are much more likely to be unproductive.

Certainly it is true that the other team can also take advantage at times, but I imagine there would be far more times the team he is on would find ways to capitalize (like giving him his off-days against lefties etc.)

(In case anyone is curious, the stats used were based on Ryan Howard's career numbers.)

Thoughts?

 

[Reyes7tulo2]

I don't think you can complain with 48 HRs no matter what the splits are.

On a side note, I am buying this book instead of the Prospect Handbook which I bought the previous two years. The 2008 book I found very useful and looks visibly used, but buying it in 2009 had most of the same guys and I definitely didn't use it as much. I was really into prospects, but now I'm more interested in current major leaguers so I can't wait to check this one out.

 

[ROLLTIDE4LIFE]

Is the 2010 BP out in stores

 

[pigskincardboard]

This is all they've talked about the past two years. Philadelphia's ridiculously loaded lefty line-up. It falls apart if Jason Werth isn't doing his part because Howard, Ibanez and Utley are all lined up in a row.

The weird thing: Despite career stats that indicate Chutley and Ibanez have noticeable platoon splits (20pts BA/50pts SLG) they both hit better against lefties in average & power in 2009.

2010 could be a rude awakening if they return to form.

...and I do think having guys with crazy platoon splits is awesome for fantasy baseball if you're into daily roster management.

 

[Codasco07]

It's important to remember there is a lot of randomness in most stats, including platoon splits. Most of the time, they are not as extreme as one would think they are just looking at the numbers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... oon-skill/

 

[Topnotchsy]

I don't think you can complain with 48 HRs no matter what the splits are.

On a side note, I am buying this book instead of the Prospect Handbook which I bought the previous two years. The 2008 book I found very useful and looks visibly used, but buying it in 2009 had most of the same guys and I definitely didn't use it as much. I was really into prospects, but now I'm more interested in current major leaguers so I can't wait to check this one out.

I've made the same move. Have not picked up the prospect handbook in a couple of years and have not really missed it. This one is the book I buy every year.

 

[Codasco07]

I don't think you can complain with 48 HRs no matter what the splits are.

On a side note, I am buying this book instead of the Prospect Handbook which I bought the previous two years. The 2008 book I found very useful and looks visibly used, but buying it in 2009 had most of the same guys and I definitely didn't use it as much. I was really into prospects, but now I'm more interested in current major leaguers so I can't wait to check this one out.

I've made the same move. Have not picked up the prospect handbook in a couple of years and have not really missed it. This one is the book I buy every year.

Ron Shandler's Baseball forecaster is more fantasy oriented, but it is also a great book to pick up. Very good stats.