Opinions needed on Finest redemption #10

[mmier118]

Just wondering what percentage chance that you guys would give of Strasburg being finest redemption #10. I'm thinking 50% at best. This Strasburg mania has gone crazy and I recently sold a 10 redemption for $ 99.00. I have 5 left and i'm debating if I should just keep listing them as they sell or if i should hold the few i have back to see if it is Stras. Sold a bunch way to early but i got worried he might end up as #5 and i locked in a decent profit. Any opinions appreciated. Thanks,

Mike

 

[goldenegg1]

Sell now! If he is announced before #10, those prices will fall fast!

 

[Rickzcards]

Sell now! If he is announced before #10, those prices will fall fast!

Yeah, what he said.

 

[mmier118]

Any thoughts on the percentage chance you would say he is number 10? And thanks for your responses.

Mike

 

[Card Magnet]

There are 4 left, correct? So mathematically speaking, he has a 25% chance of being #10. Sorry, but that's all I got :lol: .

 

[mmier118]

There are 4 left, correct? So mathematically speaking, he has a 25% chance of being #10. Sorry, but that's all I got :lol: .

Ha that was pretty funny but it's even funnier that there are 5 left ::facepalm:: :lol:

 

[Card Magnet]

There are 4 left, correct? So mathematically speaking, he has a 25% chance of being #10. Sorry, but that's all I got :lol: .

Ha that was pretty funny but it's even funnier that there are 5 left ::facepalm:: :lol:

Whoops. Why the heck did I think Stanton was #6? Make that a 20% chance.

 

[mmier118]

yeah I guess i better sell some more I'm kind of surprised that the last one went for what it did but never underestimate Cashburg. I wonder if the harper hype train will be just as crazy, i know it's crazy now but I'm thinking harper might be a bit like heyward where things are crazy then die down a little then blast into orbit once he gets called up.

 

[Card Magnet]

yeah I guess i better sell some more I'm kind of surprised that the last one went for what it did but never underestimate Cashburg. I wonder if the harper hype train will be just as crazy, i know it's crazy now but I'm thinking harper might be a bit like heyward where things are crazy then die down a little then blast into orbit once he gets called up.

If the Nats are smart (and the circumstances allow), Strasburg needs to pitch for Harper's debut. That could blow up the hobby scene, and it would mean big money for the Nats in ticket sales/marketing.


Good luck if you do sell.

 

[moxacaine]

yeah I guess i better sell some more I'm kind of surprised that the last one went for what it did but never underestimate Cashburg. I wonder if the harper hype train will be just as crazy, i know it's crazy now but I'm thinking harper might be a bit like heyward where things are crazy then die down a little then blast into orbit once he gets called up.

If the Nats are smart (and the circumstances allow), Strasburg needs to pitch for Harper's debut. That could blow up the hobby scene, and it would mean big money for the Nats in ticket sales/marketing.


Good luck if you do sell.

By the time Harper is ready to make his debut Stras will either be a regular or a bust. either way the hype will have died down by then. Hell thats at least 3 years away.

 

[Crash Davis]

yeah I guess i better sell some more I'm kind of surprised that the last one went for what it did but never underestimate Cashburg. I wonder if the harper hype train will be just as crazy, i know it's crazy now but I'm thinking harper might be a bit like heyward where things are crazy then die down a little then blast into orbit once he gets called up.

If the Nats are smart (and the circumstances allow), Strasburg needs to pitch for Harper's debut. That could blow up the hobby scene, and it would mean big money for the Nats in ticket sales/marketing.


Good luck if you do sell.

By the time Harper is ready to make his debut Stras will either be a regular or a bust. either way the hype will have died down by then. Hell thats at least 3 years away.

Harper will be up no later than September, 2011.

Write it down. Take a picture. He's a freak.

 

[Jaypers]

Harper will be up no later than September, 2011.

Write it down. Take a picture. He's a freak.

Talentwise, there's no question.

Maturity-wise....that's a different story altogether.

 

[All The Hype]

I tried playing the finest redemption game this year and I am now done with it. Of the four numbers I bought, I did well on #1, broke even on #2, broke even on #4, gained slightly on #5.

I learned the lesson that pre-announcement hype is the only safe time to sell. Example: #4 was getting $30-$35 fo a couple weeks before it was announced because people thought it could be Strasburg. I could have sold at this point and made a few bucks, but I decided to hold and see if it was indeed Stras. Then Leake was announced and the value of this card was cut in half.

With #5, they were selling for $40+ and I meant to sell one and hold one but didn't have any luck moving one before the quick announcement was made that it would be Stanton. Not a bad player by any means, but the reason the prices are higher than usual is that people are trying to guess Strasburg. Now these are selling $25-$35 or so.

I wouldn't do anything differently if I had to do it over again because it's not very often that a prospect like Stras comes along commanding huge prices. In this case the potential reward of one of these being Strasburg outweighed the cost of missing out on the smaller profit that I could have capitalized on before 4 and 5 were announced. But next year if I try this again when there isn't a Strasburg caliber player, I will definitely be selling during the pre-announcement hype.

Depending on what your buy-in is, I think I'd sell at least one or two of them at the higher price and then hold out on a few to take a shot at a big name guy or an auto.

 

[mmier118]

Thanks that's pretty much what I decided to do I've sold 3 at 99 have one more listed at that price and am holding one probably for PC but if it goes higher I'll just sell. I was in pretty low so I'm just going to take the profit and not look back. Heck for $60.00 I can get a nice Nolan Ryan Auto and he's who's Stras is trying to be like. I might dump the money on a PSA 4 1957 mantle that's about to go off. I've always wanted one of those just didn't want to spend the $$$ neccessary to get it.

 

[orion9578]

I don't see any reason he won't be #10. He's been up long enough to be #4 and #5 and Topps used other players. People will say that Topps has already sold out of the product and has no reason to hold off on him till #10. I thought that was true until the last few weeks have gone by and they keep announcing players while he's up. IMO if he was going to be anything but #10, they would have used him already. I'm thinking he'll be #10 with 1 in 10 autographed. Just my opinion .

 

[mmier118]

I don't see any reason he won't be #10. He's been up long enough to be #4 and #5 and Topps used other players. People will say that Topps has already sold out of the product and has no reason to hold off on him till #10. I thought that was true until the last few weeks have gone by and they keep announcing players while he's up. IMO if he was going to be anything but #10, they would have used him already. I'm thinking he'll be #10 with 1 in 10 autographed. Just my opinion .

Yeah that makes the most sense, to have 1 in 10 autographed I can see topps's logic use the best for first and last and have them both 1 in 10 auto's. i was thinking there are around 1500 # 10's out there so 150 autos seems possible but 1500 didn't. Either way 100 bucks for the 10's seems like a sell to me.

 

[schmidtfan20]

no way topps waits until 10.