Potential for Rondo Exquisite RC Auto/Patch

[Topnotchsy]

With secote listing his on eBay and the Celts doing well in the Playoffs, I'm pretty sure I am not the only one who has picked up at least one of these. I figured I'd share my thoughts and listen to see what others think.

I think it is accepted that the Exquisite is the #1 rookie card in existence, and when a card gets popular, 225 copies is not enough to go around. Meanwhile Rondo seems to be developing into a legitimate leader and a (somewhat) improved scorer, something that is obviously important when it comes to hobby popularity.

What I was thinking was that it seems pretty likely that had secote not listed so many Rondo Exquisite's on eBay, the prices would have jumped significantly. As is prices have gone up, but considering how many were/are available, it seems reasonable to imagine that had just a few been listed through the playoffs, the prices would have gone much higher. While there are still some on eBay now, it will likely not be too long before all those are gone, and the card shows up much less frequently.

It is worth noting that the only auction that has sold recently went for over $300 for an okay, but not too significant patch which lends credence to the idea that it is the abundance of BIN's that are available.

While some have mentioned that to this point the Exquisite RC Auto Patches /225 have never seen anywhere ever remotely close to the prices that the /99's have got, I do not believe that this has as much to do with the quantity as it has to do with the quality of players. Exquisite has historically made the best players /99, and that is the reason that so many /99's have sold for so much. Rondo may be the first player /225 who has a chance to jump into the upper echelon of hobby players, and it's clear from other sets that 225 is not a huge number, and is definitely limited enough to see some serious prices.

In the end I believe that Rondo will likely continue to improve (at least a bit) as a player, and this will help his hobby standing. More than that though, I believe the current market situation provides a buying opportunity that is highly unusual, and offers great chances for increased prices even if his performance remains where it is now. Of course winning the NBA Finals and taking a Finals MVP would do wonders, but I'm not sure that that is even necessary.

Thoughts?

 

[Wehttam6]

Some of those BINs right now do seem like good deals if that auction wasn't a fluke. I tried investing in basketball for the first time this past off-season by picking up a Rondo SPx jrsy/auto RC. I only picked up one because I'm a wimp. ::facepalm:: I wish I would have manned up and picked up more. I didn't bother looking at Exquisites because of secote. I didn't know how the whole thing would unfold with him if Rondo's cards spiked considering he has (or had) almost all of the Exquisites. It still confuses me now with that recent auction compared to some of his BIN prices.
So yeah, the Rondo exquisites around or under $240 (I didn't really pay to much attention to the uniqueness of the patches or how many breaks they had other than the number of colors) seem like good deals to me.

Edit:
WOW! AN SPX JUST ENDED TODAY VIA BEST OFFER AT $93!

 

[Topnotchsy]

Some of those BINs right now do seem like good deals if that auction wasn't a fluke. I tried investing in basketball for the first time this past off-season by picking up a Rondo SPx jrsy/auto RC. I only picked up one because I'm a wimp. ::facepalm:: I wish I would have manned up and picked up more. I didn't bother looking at Exquisites because of secote. I didn't know how the whole thing would unfold with him if Rondo's cards spiked considering he has (or had) almost all of the Exquisites. It still confuses me now with that recent auction compared to some of his BIN prices.
So yeah, the Rondo exquisites around or under $240 (I didn't really pay to much attention to the uniqueness or how many breaks other than the number of colors) seem like good deals to me.

Edit:
WOW! AN SPX JUST ENDED TODAY VIA BEST OFFER AT $93!

I think the auction is probably a better indicator than the BIN's. There's probably a whole bunch of reasons why, but I imagine some of the reasons that it ended this way is because some people only search auctions, especially since the BIN's sit there and sit there since stores listings are now mixed with regular listings. I think people also view the auctions as a more "real" price, and therefore avoid BIN's.

The different patches make a huge difference in price, though I've gone for cheaper ones.

 

[Tomlinson21RB]

While some have mentioned that to this point the Exquisite RC Auto Patches /225 have never seen anywhere ever remotely close to the prices that the /99's have got, I do not believe that this has as much to do with the quantity as it has to do with the quality of players. Exquisite has historically made the best players /99, and that is the reason that so many /99's have sold for so much. Rondo may be the first player /225 who has a chance to jump into the upper echelon of hobby players, and it's clear from other sets that 225 is not a huge number, and is definitely limited enough to see some serious prices.

I think you have it right with this paragraph. Rondo also has something else working in his favor in playing for a big market team, which will increase demand and help offset the higher print run. With him signing a 5 year extension, all the Boston fans know he'll be the face of this team for quite a while.

 

[Topnotchsy]

While some have mentioned that to this point the Exquisite RC Auto Patches /225 have never seen anywhere ever remotely close to the prices that the /99's have got, I do not believe that this has as much to do with the quantity as it has to do with the quality of players. Exquisite has historically made the best players /99, and that is the reason that so many /99's have sold for so much. Rondo may be the first player /225 who has a chance to jump into the upper echelon of hobby players, and it's clear from other sets that 225 is not a huge number, and is definitely limited enough to see some serious prices.

I think you have it right with this paragraph. Rondo also has something else working in his favor in playing for a big market team, which will increase demand and help offset the higher print run. With him signing a 5 year extension, all the Boston fans know he'll be the face of this team for quite a while.

I really think we'll start seeing more increases once secote sells out his stock. As is prices are increasing and a few have sold over $300. He still has a couple in the $200 range for lesser patches, but one good game in the Finals and those will be gone and I believe once the quantity gets down to the last few, people who may have held off thinking "they'll always be available" are going to jump on the ones that are left.

Obviously only time will tell and a poor Finals showing would hurt (while a great showing would pretty much guarantee an explosion in price) but I think overall things lean toward increases in price.

 

[Tomlinson21RB]

While some have mentioned that to this point the Exquisite RC Auto Patches /225 have never seen anywhere ever remotely close to the prices that the /99's have got, I do not believe that this has as much to do with the quantity as it has to do with the quality of players. Exquisite has historically made the best players /99, and that is the reason that so many /99's have sold for so much. Rondo may be the first player /225 who has a chance to jump into the upper echelon of hobby players, and it's clear from other sets that 225 is not a huge number, and is definitely limited enough to see some serious prices.

I think you have it right with this paragraph. Rondo also has something else working in his favor in playing for a big market team, which will increase demand and help offset the higher print run. With him signing a 5 year extension, all the Boston fans know he'll be the face of this team for quite a while.

I really think we'll start seeing more increases once secote sells out his stock. As is prices are increasing and a few have sold over $300. He still has a couple in the $200 range for lesser patches, but one good game in the Finals and those will be gone and I believe once the quantity gets down to the last few, people who may have held off thinking "they'll always be available" are going to jump on the ones that are left.

Obviously only time will tell and a poor Finals showing would hurt (while a great showing would pretty much guarantee an explosion in price) but I think overall things lean toward increases in price.

Being from Boston I can say that after this year everyone here loves this kid. I think an average finals performance won't hurt him because it'll take more than that for Boston to turn, but a great showing will bring in a nationwide appeal. I'd be willing to bet that there are 225 Boston fans that would want one. I've already taken one out of circulation for good, so there only needs to be another 224 buyers.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Being from Boston I can say that after this year everyone here loves this kid. I think an average finals performance won't hurt him because it'll take more than that for Boston to turn, but a great showing will bring in a nationwide appeal. I'd be willing to bet that there are 225 Boston fans that would want one. I've already taken one out of circulation for good, so there only needs to be another 224 buyers.

I agree with you. I think he has done enough to this point to increase popularity (unless he totally bombs) and I really the the prices will go up simply because there won't be close to the supply once secote sells out. With a top card /225 of a top player there will likely be times when there is not a single one on eBay or just a couple. Right now there's a dozen or more.

He's already gotten attention here in NY, and I imagine the same can be said around the country.

For the record I don't think they'll win the Finals, but I am hoping.

 

[Kutzy]

Bynum is a comparable player as far as numbering, big market and hype. His autos hit a little higher than Rondos have and I believe the only reason that is... is because one person is dictating the market. Rondo may have room to grow, but it will be hard. Just look at players like Deron Williams who barely sell for $500-$600 and are #/99. I dont see Rondo being a better PG than Deron, ever, and Deron has the numbering on his side. I would still sell now while you have the chance.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Bynum is a comparable player as far as numbering, big market and hype. His autos hit a little higher than Rondos have and I believe the only reason that is... is because one person is dictating the market. Rondo may have room to grow, but it will be hard. Just look at players like Deron Williams who barely sell for $500-$600 and are #/99. I dont see Rondo being a better PG than Deron, ever, and Deron has the numbering on his side. I would still sell now while you have the chance.

I think that Rondo is far more dynamic than Bynum and due to East Coast and Playoff exposure is more well know than Williams. Guess time will tell on these, but I think there's a lot of potential for Rondo. I also think he has taken his game to a higher level in the Playoffs and will continue to do so going forward. Keep in mind his improved numbers are against some of the best teams in the league (teams in the Playoffs) while in the regular season he gets to face plenty of weaker teams.

 

[Kutzy]

Bynums hype was crazy... Market or not, with only 99 cards the best players will sell for the best prices no matter what. With SPA, SPX, etc. I would agree there is more room due to market factors because there will be more desire for every single copy of rondos vs. every copy of Deron's. I just dont see Rondo as an investment at this point, I may be wrong, but his prices are way high. Wait until they take away the core of the team due to retirement and they dont make the playoffs again or are a bottom team in the playoffs. His hype will die off quickly. (Another reason why I think Derons are so cheap)

 

[Topnotchsy]

Bynums hype was crazy... Market or not, with only 99 cards the best players will sell for the best prices no matter what. With SPA, SPX, etc. I would agree there is more room due to market factors because there will be more desire for every single copy of rondos vs. every copy of Deron's. I just dont see Rondo as an investment at this point, I may be wrong, but his prices are way high. Wait until they take away the core of the team due to retirement and they dont make the playoffs again or are a bottom team in the playoffs. His hype will die off quickly. (Another reason why I think Derons are so cheap)

I actually think that as the core retires, he'll get more focus and everyone will recognize that it is "his" team. Prices have gone up a bit since I bought in, so depending on how things go, I'll decide what to do, but I do think that if secote was not selling all his on eBay now, they'd be 1.5x what they are getting right now, and once those sell out, I think we will see a bit of a jump for that reason alone.

 

[Kutzy]

Absolutely, thats the problem when you have 1 person controling the entire market.

 

[Tomlinson21RB]

People that still think Rondo is doing what he's doing because of the "core" simply don't watch basketball.

Also, people that compare Rondo to Bynum simply don't watch basketball.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Absolutely, thats the problem when you have 1 person controling the entire market.

The point is though, that they've reached these prices despite the fact that for a while there was almost an unlimited supply of these on eBay. Once that dries up I believe prices should jump at least a little simply because the supply has dried up a bit.

 

[Kutzy]

People that still think Rondo is doing what he's doing because of the "core" simply don't watch basketball.

Also, people that compare Rondo to Bynum simply don't watch basketball.

Comparing hype of Rondo and Bynum is actually pretty close, possibly even in favor of Bynum tbh since he was so young.

 

[miguelcabrera]

i think it will go up a ton when the celts win in 6.

edit- maybe not as much as i initially thought because it wont be a true championship because its against a pretty bad team. thats why i wished the suns or mavs made it to the finals so people wont be hating on the celts not actually winning it all when we win

 

[Tomlinson21RB]

People that still think Rondo is doing what he's doing because of the "core" simply don't watch basketball.

Also, people that compare Rondo to Bynum simply don't watch basketball.

Comparing hype of Rondo and Bynum is actually pretty close, possibly even in favor of Bynum tbh since he was so young.

Ah, I misread your post. I guess out of the gates the hype was in favor of Bynum, but I think a lot of people have lost interest in Bynum because of injuries and lack of development. At the same time the hype train is only growing on Rondo. More and more jerseys in Boston, SI cover, pregame discussions etc...