Profar: Buy, Hold, Sell?

[TopOffLikeWALLACE]

With Machado chrome autos at 60, Profar chrome autos at 35 seem VERY reasonable.

 

[Adam G]

Pretty good thoughts from everyone. I see both sides of the issue, and like I said, at $30+ I usually don't buy into any prospect. I think Profar has incredible talent, but I also have to remind myself that there are plenty of other players in the past that have started off with so much promise, and flamed out along the way.

However, I also remembering having the same dilemma with Trout, and decided that $25-30 was just too much for my taste, and then I regretted it when his BC autos were skyrocketing in the spring. What to do...what to do....

I think my final verdict is HOLD. Too rich for my blood, but still very intrigued by the possibilities.

 

[tramers]

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[hail2thevictors]

Pretty good thoughts from everyone. I see both sides of the issue, and like I said, at $30+ I usually don't buy into any prospect. I think Profar has incredible talent, but I also have to remind myself that there are plenty of other players in the past that have started off with so much promise, and flamed out along the way.

However, I also remembering having the same dilemma with Trout, and decided that $25-30 was just too much for my taste, and then I regretted it when his BC autos were skyrocketing in the spring. What to do...what to do....

I think my final verdict is HOLD. Too rich for my blood, but still very intrigued by the possibilities.

This is just my opinion, but you would be crazy to sell right now(if you don't mind holding until at least ST or into 2012).

Look at Machado, and his base chromes are at $60+, and by all accounts Profar is right there with Machado in all of the midseason prospect rankings. Look at his numbers-they are ridiculous for a kid who is 18 years old in Low A ball. Add on to that the fact that he plays a premium position(SS), and is likely to stick there-and you have a guy who is likely to be a top 10 prospect for the near future.

Now, I will say that I have probably over 60 autos of his-and I got in around $20 per base, and $35 per ref auto, so I could flip quick for a profit. But to me, there is star potential here, and seeing him in every top midseason top 20, and some top 10's, is just further proof to me to hold.

A switch hitting SS, young for his league, hitting .283, walking more than he strikes out(41 BB/ 39 K), slugging .527 with a .913 OPS, and with speed(though it hasn't translated to great base stealing speed, yet)? Uhh, yes please.

 

[SamHell]

My take on Profar. I like him...ALOT. He's very mature for an 18yo. One of the things the Rangers love about him is his makeup. He is positive and upbeat. He wants to be a great player and is willing to work to be one. His game is very polished. He's not the typical international player that is raw and all projection. He really isn't a tools guy. He's more quick than fast. Most think his frame won't support much more muscle which means limited power but he won't outgrow shortstop. He is sure handed in the field but doesn't have the huge range at SS like Elvis Andrus. His positioning and plus arm strength help make up for the lack of range. His approach at the plate is very advance for his age(41BB/39K). He only started full time switch hitting last year but there isn't a huge L/R split. Some have wondered if he is playing so well because of his polish and maturity rather than his tools. That would mean a limited ceiling.

I don't think the Rangers will rush him. He should spend the rest of the year at Hickory then a full year at Myrtle Beach(A+) and Frisco(AA). That would get him through the 2013 at age 20. Andrus will be a free agent after the 2014 season. Boras is his agent so I expect him to hit free agency. If the Rangers resign him, Profar could easily slide over to 2nd. Kinsler is signed through 2013.

 

[tramers]

 

[aminors]

Agreed. His performance in the futures game and Top ten rankings have driven his prices up. I dont think anyone should be buying as an investment at $25-$30.

I usually agree with you, but here I'm kinda lost. He's a top five to top ten prospect and is a Mike Trout type of guy in my opinion. If I didn't have to go to college in a few weeks, I'd have been putting hundreds of dollars into his cards and I'd be making money at it. Sadly, I'll have to stick to the one Chrome auto I have that I bought for $20.