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FCB Donruss Elite 2009 Prospect Checklist
The players below are all guys who I’ve seen multiple times.
Top Three
Dustin Ackley – I scouted Ackley at UNC and then again at the Arizona Fall League. His plate approach is one of the best I’ve ever seen – squares up on everything, good two-strike hitter, great bat control. Even as a freshman in one of the toughest baseball conferences in the nation (ACC), the lefthanded batter controlled plate appearances, consistently hit line drives and showed a very advanced feel for the game. He had a 14.0% AFL walk rate and 28.3% of the balls he put in play were line drives – led the AFL in LD%. Though he’s an elite line-drive hitter, the 6-foot-1, 185-pounder does not hit many fly balls. You may be expecting too much if you think he’ll put up above-average power numbers in the big leagues. Surprisingly, he was made a strikeout victim in 22.1% of his 86 AFL plate appearances (8.2% K over 999 NCAA PA).
Ackley is a plus runner. He gets good reads, takes efficient routes, and may be able to provide average or better defense in center field. As a corner outfielder – probably LF because his arm isn’t very strong – his defense would almost certainly be above-average.
Mike Leake – Before I had a chance to see him, Leake put together a statistical resume that had me giddy. Pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly college parks in the country, he went from elite freshman to out-of-this-world junior. The 5-foot-11, 180-pounder – his height is frequently exaggerated – uses plus plus command and outstanding movement to clown around with hitters. Leake’s also an elite ground-ball pitcher. His fastball sits at 88-91 MPH (touches 92), about 8-10 MPH faster than his changeup. Leake also throws a slider, curve and cutter.
People who write him off for not having outstanding upside are missing out. Leake could easily turn into an above-average MLB starter – crafty with the arsenal and smarts to make hitters look silly. He’s fresh off a 142.0 inning college season plus 19.2 strong AFL innings and may be ready to handle 190+ innings in 2010.
Chase D’Arnaud – Many fans who scout prospects will take a “Did this guy impress me?” approach. If that’s how you roll, D’Arnaud probably won’t catch your eye. He’s the type of player who will grow on you more and more as you see him, though. The 6-foot-1, 175-pounder has the speed, instincts and hand-eye coordination to play shortstop. And that’s largely what makes him valuable. D’Arnaud has just eight home runs over 786 professional plate appearances. But he gets the ball in the air regularly and could be a gap hitter who produces high doubles totals. He’s patient (10.4% career BB including the AFL) and has above-average contact skills (15.4% K). D’Arnaud could have a lengthy big league career due to his polished approach to the game. If he keeps up his High-A hitting pace in Double-A, he’ll reach the big leagues in a hurry.
Avoid
Grant Desme – When Grant Desme started generating buzz as one of the game’s top five-tool talents, I made the trip out to Stockton to see him play. The verdict: Not impressed; he looked overmatched. Then Desme had an amazing few weeks at the AFL. So I again gave him my full attention. The verdict: Not impressed; he looked overmatched.
Desme is an extremely selective hitter who tends to watch pitches until he’s behind in the count. Throw his pitch when he’s looking for it and he can do some major damage. In other words, he’s a mistake hitter. It would be one thing if Desme was a great bet to stick in center. While he does have slightly above-average speed, his lofty stolen base totals come from excellent jumps and his advanced ability to read pitchers. I think he’s a corner outfielder who will tease onlookers with his power but wind up lost at the plate more often than not.
D.J. LeMahieu – If you’re into players with MLB bodies, LeMahieu may be your guy. If you’re into players who are likely bets to become big leaguers, look elsewhere. A 6-foot-4, 195-pounder, LeMahieu’s a good contact hitter with below-average patience, speed and power. While he makes contact regularly, LeMahieu showed why his ceiling is so limited during his pro debut: 0 HR and 70+ GB% over 182 PA. A draft-eligible sophomore who the Cubs rolled the dice on with the 79th overall pick, he opened the year as LSU’s shortstop but primarily played second base in the College World Series. I think his defensive skill set will land him at third base.
LeMahieu may look like a guy who could figure things out someday. But I wouldn’t bet on that happening. He’s far from selective, struggles to get the ball in the air and probably isn’t going to be up-the-middle defender.
Alex White – Largely considered UNC’s top recruit for the 2007 season – ahead of Ackley – White threw an 88-92 MPH fastball (touched 93) as a freshman. He complemented it with a 76-79 MPH slider. Two years later (College World Series), his fastball was sitting 89-92 (touched 94) and he managed to sharpen his slider a bit. The 6-foot-3, 200-pounder’s changeup and curveball are both below-average offerings. White’s command is also inconsistent. I see him as a likely reliever. And there are more than a couple college arms that were selected well after him that I think will provide significantly more MLB value.
Sleeper
Jason Kipnis – Though he played center field for ASU, Kipnis was moved to left when he signed with the Indians. And his upside is limited there. But the 5-foot-10, 175-pounder is a disciplined hitter who makes a lot of contact, has elite bat speed and was an outstanding college hitter over 750+ plate appearances. During his final two college seasons, Kipnis walked 102 times while striking out 73 – he stays balanced even against good breaking balls. His quick bat allows him time to identify pitches and he works the count well. He also has pretty good pop, though I’ve seen him struggle with inside fastballs on more than a few occasions. Don’t be surprised if Kipnis turns into an above-average defensive corner outfielder with a near-average MLB bat.
Extras
I’ve only seen limited footage of the following players, but I’m expecting big things from them based off of what I have seen: Slade Heathcott, Jiovanni Mier, Wil Myers, Tony Sanchez, Zeke Spruill and Mike Trout.
Feel free to ask questions guys, he will be chiming in.
And check his site out at...
http://www.projectprospect.com
The players below are all guys who I’ve seen multiple times.
Top Three
Dustin Ackley – I scouted Ackley at UNC and then again at the Arizona Fall League. His plate approach is one of the best I’ve ever seen – squares up on everything, good two-strike hitter, great bat control. Even as a freshman in one of the toughest baseball conferences in the nation (ACC), the lefthanded batter controlled plate appearances, consistently hit line drives and showed a very advanced feel for the game. He had a 14.0% AFL walk rate and 28.3% of the balls he put in play were line drives – led the AFL in LD%. Though he’s an elite line-drive hitter, the 6-foot-1, 185-pounder does not hit many fly balls. You may be expecting too much if you think he’ll put up above-average power numbers in the big leagues. Surprisingly, he was made a strikeout victim in 22.1% of his 86 AFL plate appearances (8.2% K over 999 NCAA PA).
Ackley is a plus runner. He gets good reads, takes efficient routes, and may be able to provide average or better defense in center field. As a corner outfielder – probably LF because his arm isn’t very strong – his defense would almost certainly be above-average.
Mike Leake – Before I had a chance to see him, Leake put together a statistical resume that had me giddy. Pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly college parks in the country, he went from elite freshman to out-of-this-world junior. The 5-foot-11, 180-pounder – his height is frequently exaggerated – uses plus plus command and outstanding movement to clown around with hitters. Leake’s also an elite ground-ball pitcher. His fastball sits at 88-91 MPH (touches 92), about 8-10 MPH faster than his changeup. Leake also throws a slider, curve and cutter.
People who write him off for not having outstanding upside are missing out. Leake could easily turn into an above-average MLB starter – crafty with the arsenal and smarts to make hitters look silly. He’s fresh off a 142.0 inning college season plus 19.2 strong AFL innings and may be ready to handle 190+ innings in 2010.
Chase D’Arnaud – Many fans who scout prospects will take a “Did this guy impress me?” approach. If that’s how you roll, D’Arnaud probably won’t catch your eye. He’s the type of player who will grow on you more and more as you see him, though. The 6-foot-1, 175-pounder has the speed, instincts and hand-eye coordination to play shortstop. And that’s largely what makes him valuable. D’Arnaud has just eight home runs over 786 professional plate appearances. But he gets the ball in the air regularly and could be a gap hitter who produces high doubles totals. He’s patient (10.4% career BB including the AFL) and has above-average contact skills (15.4% K). D’Arnaud could have a lengthy big league career due to his polished approach to the game. If he keeps up his High-A hitting pace in Double-A, he’ll reach the big leagues in a hurry.
Avoid
Grant Desme – When Grant Desme started generating buzz as one of the game’s top five-tool talents, I made the trip out to Stockton to see him play. The verdict: Not impressed; he looked overmatched. Then Desme had an amazing few weeks at the AFL. So I again gave him my full attention. The verdict: Not impressed; he looked overmatched.
Desme is an extremely selective hitter who tends to watch pitches until he’s behind in the count. Throw his pitch when he’s looking for it and he can do some major damage. In other words, he’s a mistake hitter. It would be one thing if Desme was a great bet to stick in center. While he does have slightly above-average speed, his lofty stolen base totals come from excellent jumps and his advanced ability to read pitchers. I think he’s a corner outfielder who will tease onlookers with his power but wind up lost at the plate more often than not.
D.J. LeMahieu – If you’re into players with MLB bodies, LeMahieu may be your guy. If you’re into players who are likely bets to become big leaguers, look elsewhere. A 6-foot-4, 195-pounder, LeMahieu’s a good contact hitter with below-average patience, speed and power. While he makes contact regularly, LeMahieu showed why his ceiling is so limited during his pro debut: 0 HR and 70+ GB% over 182 PA. A draft-eligible sophomore who the Cubs rolled the dice on with the 79th overall pick, he opened the year as LSU’s shortstop but primarily played second base in the College World Series. I think his defensive skill set will land him at third base.
LeMahieu may look like a guy who could figure things out someday. But I wouldn’t bet on that happening. He’s far from selective, struggles to get the ball in the air and probably isn’t going to be up-the-middle defender.
Alex White – Largely considered UNC’s top recruit for the 2007 season – ahead of Ackley – White threw an 88-92 MPH fastball (touched 93) as a freshman. He complemented it with a 76-79 MPH slider. Two years later (College World Series), his fastball was sitting 89-92 (touched 94) and he managed to sharpen his slider a bit. The 6-foot-3, 200-pounder’s changeup and curveball are both below-average offerings. White’s command is also inconsistent. I see him as a likely reliever. And there are more than a couple college arms that were selected well after him that I think will provide significantly more MLB value.
Sleeper
Jason Kipnis – Though he played center field for ASU, Kipnis was moved to left when he signed with the Indians. And his upside is limited there. But the 5-foot-10, 175-pounder is a disciplined hitter who makes a lot of contact, has elite bat speed and was an outstanding college hitter over 750+ plate appearances. During his final two college seasons, Kipnis walked 102 times while striking out 73 – he stays balanced even against good breaking balls. His quick bat allows him time to identify pitches and he works the count well. He also has pretty good pop, though I’ve seen him struggle with inside fastballs on more than a few occasions. Don’t be surprised if Kipnis turns into an above-average defensive corner outfielder with a near-average MLB bat.
Extras
I’ve only seen limited footage of the following players, but I’m expecting big things from them based off of what I have seen: Slade Heathcott, Jiovanni Mier, Wil Myers, Tony Sanchez, Zeke Spruill and Mike Trout.
Feel free to ask questions guys, he will be chiming in.
And check his site out at...
http://www.projectprospect.com
, what is your take on Brett Jackson? I am interested in your opinion. From what I saw of him last year, he could be a nice fit at the top of the order. Nice pop and speed, but the K's, oh the K's.....
