Prospectors: take a deep breath and exhale

[011873]

The sky is not falling but sure seems like that way on these boards for the recent prospect products.

Guys, this is not new to us. It happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Handful of cards start off blazing, crazy high only to drop. Isnt this why WE dont buy the big boys as soon as they come out? Let the "I have to have it pronto" guys get them first and then we come in and get the same cards for so much less.

This is also not new. There will be many autos that sell for squat only to totally explode in value in the future. If my Baby wasnt sleeping, Id try to tip toe inside, grab a Beckett and list all of todays big stars whose auto rokies were worth nothing when they were first released.

If you are planning to break a bunch of boxes and list everything asap, you shouldnt be prospecting. That takes time and patience and knowledge of knowing when to sell and when to hold.

In my book, the ONLY prospect I would sell asap from EEE, without question, is Chapman. Theres something to be said when most scouts dont even think he'll make the bigs this year and most of them also think his control is shaky and he might be a reliever.

There is zero, as in nada, reason to break 5 boxes of EEE and sell off the "common" autos for 1.99 per. We are not talking Chaz Roe here. These are the next YOUNG stars of Baseball and there will come a time, GUARANTEED, when many of these "worthless" autos become nice money over the next couple of years.

Same goes for the U.S.A. sets. Sure, Bryce is a quick sell considering its not even his first card but comon guys, we are in January. Theres ZERO "real" Baseball being played. Do you honestly think and expect that there will be a lot of hot guys coming for these sets NOW?

The draft is in June, months away and no one really from this product has gotten on the hype train yet. Wait until that happens and all these names get mentioned for the draft.

Immediate satisfaction and return are what products like Tribute and Topps Sterling are for.

Gamble away at those, thats why they are produced.

 

[Jaypers]

In my book, the ONLY prospect I would sell asap from EEE, without question, is Chapman. Theres something to be said when most scouts dont even think he'll make the bigs this year and most of them also think his control is shaky and he might be a reliever.

Looks as though he's already losing steam.

[ebay:ymhdagj6]270518749893[/ebay:ymhdagj6]

 

[js0000001]

Its like collecting wine

Some vintages take a few years to mature (and then rapidly turn to vinegar)

also if you don't like what your pack pulled gems are selling for you just have to go buy singles (@$1.99 a pop) to hoard until later

 

[Crash Davis]

The sky is not falling but sure seems like that way on these boards for the recent prospect products.

Guys, this is not new to us. It happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Handful of cards start off blazing, crazy high only to drop. Isnt this why WE dont buy the big boys as soon as they come out? Let the "I have to have it pronto" guys get them first and then we come in and get the same cards for so much less.

This is also not new. There will be many autos that sell for squat only to totally explode in value in the future. If my Baby wasnt sleeping, Id try to tip toe inside, grab a Beckett and list all of todays big stars whose auto rokies were worth nothing when they were first released.

If you are planning to break a bunch of boxes and list everything asap, you shouldnt be prospecting. That takes time and patience and knowledge of knowing when to sell and when to hold.

In my book, the ONLY prospect I would sell asap from EEE, without question, is Chapman. Theres something to be said when most scouts dont even think he'll make the bigs this year and most of them also think his control is shaky and he might be a reliever.

There is zero, as in nada, reason to break 5 boxes of EEE and sell off the "common" autos for 1.99 per. We are not talking Chaz Roe here. These are the next YOUNG stars of Baseball and there will come a time, GUARANTEED, when many of these "worthless" autos become nice money over the next couple of years.

Same goes for the U.S.A. sets. Sure, Bryce is a quick sell considering its not even his first card but comon guys, we are in January. Theres ZERO "real" Baseball being played. Do you honestly think and expect that there will be a lot of hot guys coming for these sets NOW?

The draft is in June, months away and no one really from this product has gotten on the hype train yet. Wait until that happens and all these names get mentioned for the draft.

Immediate satisfaction and return are what products like Tribute and Topps Sterling are for.

Gamble away at those, thats why they are produced.

So you'd keep Dustin Ackley and Donovan Tate knowing full-well that they are scheduled to be in 2010 Bowman as Chrome autographs?

And the prospect game has changed A LOT. The sky might not be falling, but this game is no longer being played like it was during the glory years of 2004-2007. Remember how much Joba Chamberlain bowman chrome gold refractor autographs were out of the shoot? $1,000 or so. Even middle-of-the-road guys like Hunter Pence were $250.

Fast forward - 2009: The BEST gold refractor may have sold for $200-250 the first few days after product release.

People have much less disposable income to spend on cards. It's that simple. Prospecting is not over, but it's not nearly what it was.

 

[rainmanesq]

It’s been the case every year, esp w/ee + sterling where unless you hit the “top 2-3 guys,” you’re probably wiser holding…unless of course, you got your boxes/cases ridiculously cheap/are busting in bulk so selling a $1.99 auto may not hurt as much/can still be profit. A lot of it’s also timing- unless you’re the first 1-2 to list, it’s probably best to wait until supply “dries up” (in terms of # of listings) + then list.

Prospecting can still be/is still profitable, but the herd’s being thinned + frankly, that’s a good thing imo as some “prospectors” never should’ve gotten involved in the first place.

 

[Reyes7tulo2]

The sky is not falling but sure seems like that way on these boards for the recent prospect products.

Guys, this is not new to us. It happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Handful of cards start off blazing, crazy high only to drop. Isnt this why WE dont buy the big boys as soon as they come out? Let the "I have to have it pronto" guys get them first and then we come in and get the same cards for so much less.

This is also not new. There will be many autos that sell for squat only to totally explode in value in the future. If my Baby wasnt sleeping, Id try to tip toe inside, grab a Beckett and list all of todays big stars whose auto rokies were worth nothing when they were first released.

If you are planning to break a bunch of boxes and list everything asap, you shouldnt be prospecting. That takes time and patience and knowledge of knowing when to sell and when to hold.

In my book, the ONLY prospect I would sell asap from EEE, without question, is Chapman. Theres something to be said when most scouts dont even think he'll make the bigs this year and most of them also think his control is shaky and he might be a reliever.

There is zero, as in nada, reason to break 5 boxes of EEE and sell off the "common" autos for 1.99 per. We are not talking Chaz Roe here. These are the next YOUNG stars of Baseball and there will come a time, GUARANTEED, when many of these "worthless" autos become nice money over the next couple of years.

Same goes for the U.S.A. sets. Sure, Bryce is a quick sell considering its not even his first card but comon guys, we are in January. Theres ZERO "real" Baseball being played. Do you honestly think and expect that there will be a lot of hot guys coming for these sets NOW?

The draft is in June, months away and no one really from this product has gotten on the hype train yet. Wait until that happens and all these names get mentioned for the draft.

Immediate satisfaction and return are what products like Tribute and Topps Sterling are for.

Gamble away at those, thats why they are produced.

So you'd keep Dustin Ackley and Donovan Tate knowing full-well that they are scheduled to be in 2010 Bowman as Chrome autographs?

And the prospect game has changed A LOT. The sky might not be falling, but this game is no longer being played like it was during the glory years of 2004-2007. Remember how much Joba Chamberlain bowman chrome gold refractor autographs were out of the shoot? $1,000 or so. Even middle-of-the-road guys like Hunter Pence were $250.

Fast forward - 2009: The BEST gold refractor may have sold for $200-250 the first few days after product release.

People have much less disposable income to spend on cards. It's that simple. Prospecting is not over, but it's not nearly what it was.

2009 Draft has zero huge names as opposed to 2007 Chrome. That had probably the best autos a prospector could ask for. Yankee stud, Mets stud (at the time), Lincecum, Pence, and plenty of others. I think it's more of the quality of the players than the economy.

edit: Also, Topps is producing way too many prospect sets with the same guys. Starting with 07 Draft by taking all the great players in the base set and putting them in 08 Bowman with chrome autos. Then in 2008 they gave Morrison 2 chrome cards (base and auto) with the same picture. Now they are going to give Strasburg like 5 different 1st bowman chrome cards too. That's what I hate most because by having so many different things, the value of all of them goes down. We don't need infinite cards, just a few good ones.

 

[HPC]

This thread is information people already know just rewritten again.

It does happen every year, and people know the risks going in and still complain when they lose or dont get an immediate profit

 

[jcmint]

The only difference is the glory years were 02-04

The sky is not falling but sure seems like that way on these boards for the recent prospect products.

Guys, this is not new to us. It happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Handful of cards start off blazing, crazy high only to drop. Isnt this why WE dont buy the big boys as soon as they come out? Let the "I have to have it pronto" guys get them first and then we come in and get the same cards for so much less.

This is also not new. There will be many autos that sell for squat only to totally explode in value in the future. If my Baby wasnt sleeping, Id try to tip toe inside, grab a Beckett and list all of todays big stars whose auto rokies were worth nothing when they were first released.

If you are planning to break a bunch of boxes and list everything asap, you shouldnt be prospecting. That takes time and patience and knowledge of knowing when to sell and when to hold.

In my book, the ONLY prospect I would sell asap from EEE, without question, is Chapman. Theres something to be said when most scouts dont even think he'll make the bigs this year and most of them also think his control is shaky and he might be a reliever.

There is zero, as in nada, reason to break 5 boxes of EEE and sell off the "common" autos for 1.99 per. We are not talking Chaz Roe here. These are the next YOUNG stars of Baseball and there will come a time, GUARANTEED, when many of these "worthless" autos become nice money over the next couple of years.

Same goes for the U.S.A. sets. Sure, Bryce is a quick sell considering its not even his first card but comon guys, we are in January. Theres ZERO "real" Baseball being played. Do you honestly think and expect that there will be a lot of hot guys coming for these sets NOW?

The draft is in June, months away and no one really from this product has gotten on the hype train yet. Wait until that happens and all these names get mentioned for the draft.

Immediate satisfaction and return are what products like Tribute and Topps Sterling are for.

Gamble away at those, thats why they are produced.

So you'd keep Dustin Ackley and Donovan Tate knowing full-well that they are scheduled to be in 2010 Bowman as Chrome autographs?

And the prospect game has changed A LOT. The sky might not be falling, but this game is no longer being played like it was during the glory years of 2004-2007. Remember how much Joba Chamberlain bowman chrome gold refractor autographs were out of the shoot? $1,000 or so. Even middle-of-the-road guys like Hunter Pence were $250.

Fast forward - 2009: The BEST gold refractor may have sold for $200-250 the first few days after product release.

People have much less disposable income to spend on cards. It's that simple. Prospecting is not over, but it's not nearly what it was.

 

[sheetskout]

I agree with most of that.

I have a couple of key rules.....

As a prospector I....

1) Don't bust boxes or cases
2) Don't buy when a product debuts
3) Don't purchase a player over the age of 23
4) Don't purchase a player in AAA for the first time
5) Don't purchase a hyped player simply because of the talk
6) Don't hold out for huge gains

I guess my golden rule would be that you want to aim to have as many "peak points" as possible. In other words, you want as many chances for increase as possible. It's clear that this is more difficult with players at advanced levels and older prospects. I usually aim at purchasing players in rookie ball and A-ball.

I know there are people that aren't going to agree with this, and those who are going to point out exceptions to these rules, but I think these are stable prospecting rules to live by. Commments?