Reds overpay Homer Bailey $105 Million for 6 years

[Austin]

ESPN is reporting the Reds just signed Homer Bailey to a 6 year/$105 million dollar deal.

$17 million a season for a guy who's Cincinnati's third starter? Who only won more than 11 games once (13 in 2012) in 7 seasons and has a lifetime 4.25 era?

I wonder what he would have signed for if he didn't have two no-hitters?

And if Bailey's worth $105 million to Cincy, what are Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos worth to them?

 

[AmishDave]

Unreal money. Absolutely unreal.

 

[jbhofmann]

He's going to be 28. Ton of juice in the tank for a guy that just now started to understand how to pitch, not throw.

I have no problem with the signing.

 

[sportscardtheory]

Just insane. $17 million a year for a just over .500 career W% with a career ERA over 4? lol Yeah.

 

[mmyers1978]

Homer is just now coming into his own. I'd almost be willing to bet that he's in the running for the Cy Young Award this coming season. He's going to win at least 15 games......

 

[HPC]

Cincy is gambling on him in the future because they sure as hell arent paying him for what he's done in the past.

My initial thoughts are they got hosed bad, but after some thought, its not a horrid deal.

 

[moxacaine]

The only contract worse than Baileys this off season was Tanaka.

The Reds made a bad deal on this one.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Bailey's career Wins Above Replacement (in 7 seasons) is lower than Clayton Kershaw's WAR in each of the last 3 seasons. I do believe that this is as much tied to the changing economics of baseball as it has to do with Bailey's potential but for their sake I do hope he can continue to improve. He has certainly improved over the last couple of seasons so here's to a break-out season...

 

[Austin]

Homer is just now coming into his own. I'd almost be willing to bet that he's in the running for the Cy Young Award this coming season. He's going to win at least 15 games......

Bailey's fans have been saying that for several years and it's never happened.
His two no-hitters have fooled people into thinking he's now "ready" to be the superstar he was forecast to be when he was a 1st round draft pick back in 2004.

Bailey's a good pitcher, but he's the third best starter on his own team, and Cueto and Latos aren't superstars.
$105 million based on potential is ludicrous for a guy turning 28.

 

[mmyers1978]

I wasn't really saying that they didn't overpay, as much as I was stating that he's getting better. I think $105 Million for anyone, for 6 years, is ridiculous. That kind of money makes players think that they are bigger than the game.

Bailey's fans have been saying that for several years and it's never happened.
His two no-hitters have fooled people into thinking he's now "ready" to be the superstar he was forecast to be when he was a 1st round draft pick back in 2004.

Bailey's a good pitcher, but he's the third best starter on his own team, and Cueto and Latos aren't superstars.
$105 million based on potential is ludicrous for a guy turning 28.

 

[smapdi]

As someone who owns a 2004 BDP auto, I hope he turns into a superstar.

 

[tiki4mvp]

I dont think it's a horrible contract, that being said when I read it I was highly confused.

 

[fordman]

Im gonna take 2 stances on this:

1) Good for him. He's getting paid! He's doing what he loves and gets paid millions to do so good for him!

2) From a Reds fan perspective, I think they should've given him 6 million a year with performance bonuses. Im not a Homer Bailey fan. The Reds have bet the farm on this guy and until last season, he hasnt produced. Yes, he has 2 no hitters but he did issue a walk in one of the no hitters. I do hope he performs and the Reds dont have buyers remorse after this season.

Fordman

 

[jbhofmann]

Tim Lincecum got the same per/yr money.

Last 2 years WAR:

Tim= -2.3
Homer= 5.7

 

[CatdaddysCards]

Why do people give the wins stat any value, when it comes to pitchers? Often time a starting pitcher can throw 8 IP of 1 run ball, and lose because his offense sucked. Look at quality starts, over wins, or WAR. Not just the wins.

 

[Bootstraps9]

Why do people give the wins stat any value, when it comes to pitchers? Often time a starting pitcher can throw 8 IP of 1 run ball, and lose because his offense sucked. Look at quality starts, over wins, or WAR. Not just the wins.

Scherzer ran away with the CY last year based on wins. That vote pissed me off. I was fine with him winning but the fact that he utterly dominated Darvish and Iwakuma in the vote was horrendous. All three were pretty close and deserving. Should have been a much closer vote.


Ogando, Michael Young, Leonys Martin and all Texas Rangers

 

[Austin]

Why do people give the wins stat any value, when it comes to pitchers? Often time a starting pitcher can throw 8 IP of 1 run ball, and lose because his offense sucked. Look at quality starts, over wins, or WAR. Not just the wins.

I agree that wins are not as important as many fans think they are (Felix Hernandez is an example).

However, WAR is also flawed and does not tell the whole story.
David Price's WAR was slightly worse than Bailey's last season.
I guarantee you 100% of teams would want Price over Bailey.

Also, Bailey ranked 43rd among MLB pitchers in WAR.
You think the 42 pitchers ahead of Bailey also deserve at least $17 million a year?

No one's saying Bailey is terrible. We just think the contract is too high.
He's often a good pitcher. But he's a number three starter who has never lived up to his potential.

Even most of the analysts on ESPN and MLB Network were saying the Reds overpaid, since Bailey was only asking for around $10 million in arbitration, but the Reds wanted to lock him down longterm.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Scherzer ran away with the CY last year based on wins. That vote pissed me off. I was fine with him winning but the fact that he utterly dominated Darvish and Iwakuma in the vote was horrendous. All three were pretty close and deserving. Should have been a much closer vote.


Ogando, Michael Young, Leonys Martin and all Texas Rangers

Scherzer led the league in stats like WHIP besides for the gaudy win loss record. IMO there's no reason he should not have swept the CY award. Was he light years better than the others? No way. But I believe he was clearly the best pitcher in the AL even if it was not by a huge margin.

 

[Bootstraps9]

219.2 IP 1.01 WHIP 2.66 ERA
209.2 IP 1.07 WHIP 2.83 ERA
214.1 IP 0.97 WHIP 2.90 ERA

You really think Scherzer was the clearly the best? And I picked these three because they are the only stats I ever truly consider relevant for a pitcher (personal opinion).


Ogando, Michael Young, Leonys Martin and all Texas Rangers

 

[Bootstraps9]

IMO Iwakuma should have easily won it. Slightly behind in WHIP with a huge edge in ERA and slight edge in IP.


Ogando, Michael Young, Leonys Martin and all Texas Rangers