Rick Porcello = Fausto Carmona part 2?

[ballerskrip]

What are all of the similarities that you are talking about? That they are both right handed and throw a sinker?

There is alot more that goes into each of these guys, and I would say they have more differences than similarities.

Young
Both throw a sinker about 80% of the time
Low Strikeout Rates
Low Walk %'s
High Groundball %'s
Similar build(6' 4'' 200 lbs)


What glaring differences am I missing, other than makeup(Porcello has obvious advantage)?

1st off the strikeout rates really weren't that similar. Over 1 K per 9 difference.
Other differences:
Their breaking pitches
Age
Velocity
Makeup

Some of the numbers are similar, but this isn't sabremetrics. I have watched each pitch probbaly 7-8 times and never once drew comparison's between them.

 

[nborton]

Porcello came up at a much younger age, as a greater prospect than Carmona.23 versus 20, Carmona came up from the Domincan though.

Porcello is curve, slider, change up and fastball-
while Carmona relies mostly on a sinker, like Chien-Ming **** to get his batters out.Not true, Porcello relies on a sinker for almost 80% of his pitches.

Carmona is over half a decade older than Porcello at 26, and he was much older than Porcello when he pitched his first and second seasons.I'm not comparing them now, but rather a trend between two young, hard throwing sinkerballers(Carmona's is faster btw).

I think Porcello is far better, and will be the Tigers #2 man next year.Agreed, this goes without saying.

I think you are focusing more on the bad side of Carmona, which isn't really what I was getting at. I think Porcello could just as easily have a year like Carmona's 2007 in 2010.

I think Strasburg will never get 15 wins in a single season

But I do think Porcello will be a very solid MLB pitcher and I will bet you he gets atleast 15 wins next year, He looked so good for a 20 year old kid this year.... and I see him and Verlander being a great 1-2 punch for a long time, Sorry but that's my opinion.

Shep :ugeek:

I hope that's true, but I really doubt either are on the Tigers four years from now.

Also, there is no way he wins 15 next year. Not because of him, but because the Tigers aren't going to win but maybe 70 some games, and I doubt Porcello gets 15 of them.

I think he's going to be much better than Carmona in the long run. Comparing any 20 year old in the major leagues to anyone older is not really a fair comparison. There's actually some good that comes from being a GB pitcher. They end up being able to pitch deeper into games typically because of lower pitch counts.

 

[nborton]

What are all of the similarities that you are talking about? That they are both right handed and throw a sinker?

There is alot more that goes into each of these guys, and I would say they have more differences than similarities.

Young
Both throw a sinker about 80% of the time
Low Strikeout Rates
Low Walk %'s
High Groundball %'s
Similar build(6' 4'' 200 lbs)


What glaring differences am I missing, other than makeup(Porcello has obvious advantage)?

While both are young in the seasons your talking about, Carmona at 24 that season is a HUGE difference than Porcello at 20. If we came back and revisited this 4 years from now and compared those seasons I really doubt it's even close.

 

[Codasco07]

Are you sure Porcello throws a sinker? I'm looking at the Pitch Fx data from FanGraphs and it doesn't appear like he does. Furthermore, he didn't throw any of his pitches more than 50% of the time.

Porcello

 

[natsprospects26]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/porcellos-rookie-year

I was going off this article ^

 

[darocker80]

**** was actually very solid for many years to injury. If he wasn't injured who knows what his record would be?

I mean back to back 19 Win season and was runner up in the cy and had a solid year before those. And is still young.

 

[zookerman182]

I was pretty impressed with Carmona when he was at his best (a couple years ago). And i would still take Carmona at his best over anything i have seen from Porcello yet.

Now do i think Porcello is a better pitcher now than Carmona?- yes
Do i think Porcello will be a better pitcher than Carmons in his career?- yes
Does Porcello get worshiped too much on FCB?- yes

 

[jbone17]

This is a pretty good point, but Porcello seems more polished. I think Rick is going to have another okay year, but there is no way that he will reach 17-20 wins like Carmona did that one year.

Agreed, I think Porcello will maintain better control. The data leads me to believe he'll pan out to be a solid above average pitcher, but not the star people are projecting him to be. Unless he can increase his strikeout rate(very possible with improved secondary pitches), I think I see him as a Jason Marquis/Derek Lowe type pitcher.

Agreed as well. The kid is going to be solid, but not Pedro Martinez status.

So in order to compare him you pick one of the best pitchers of a generation and a hall of famer?

Okay, whatever. He will not be a star calibur pitcher. Happy now? I simply compared him to a star and he was the first one that jumped into my head.

 

[Dave Crum]

Porcello = bust in the next two years.

 

[jbone17]

Porcello = bust in the next two years.

Reasoning?

 

[Codasco07]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/porcellos-rookie-year

I was going off this article ^

On the FanGraphs page, Porcello throws the two seamer 21.7% of the time. That's a far cry from the author's figure of 77%. I think it's a little misleading to call the two seamer a sinker because it is basically the same as his fastball. Maybe I'm not reading the Pitch Fx correctly though.

 

[Dave Crum]

Well, frankly, I dont think he is all that good to begin with. I see him as being a middle of the rotation pitcher at best. Nothing near the elite status that all the prospectors have him destined for. Simply put, he will NEVER meat the expectations that have been put on him. Thus the bust title.

 

[jbone17]

Well, frankly, I dont think he is all that good to begin with. I see him as being a middle of the rotation pitcher at best. Nothing near the elite status that all the prospectors have him destined for. Simply put, he will NEVER meat the expectations that have been put on him. Thus the bust title.

Not every player meets the expectations put in front of them, but calling him a bust for this reason is simply out of control. Why do you think he will be a complete bust? Control problems, bad secondary stuff, etc. EXPLAIN YOURSELF!

 

[GTJ558]

Sure, great comparison. If Porcello decides to love movement and walk twice as many batters for no damn reason we've got ourselves a winner.

Fausto blows my mind...
as does ****...

there are a few other sinkerballers that just had issues for no damn reason (weak hip muscles do to the layoff isn't a reason)

feel lucky if he's better than Pelfrey

 

[Huffamaniac]

So if he has a long career as a #3 starter (I am not saying that) you would label him a bust?

Well, frankly, I dont think he is all that good to begin with. I see him as being a middle of the rotation pitcher at best. Nothing near the elite status that all the prospectors have him destined for. Simply put, he will NEVER meat the expectations that have been put on him. Thus the bust title.

 

[pigskincardboard]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/porcellos-rookie-year

I was going off this article ^

On the FanGraphs page, Porcello throws the two seamer 21.7% of the time. That's a far cry from the author's figure of 77%. I think it's a little misleading to call the two seamer a sinker because it is basically the same as his fastball. Maybe I'm not reading the Pitch Fx correctly though.

Look at the numbers. These algorithms can be a bit tricky.

there should be more than 1mph difference in a 2/4 seamer. From the looks of the vertical and horizontal movement, it's just one pitch falling into multiple categories. It's tricky to tell a poorly thrown sinker from a fastball. Maybe it's a couple different pitches, but it's pretty clear that there's a huge amount of cross-over.

I'd probably feel confident saying that porcello threw that fastball about 72% of the time.

With that said, a vert. movement of 6 and 4.5 isn't very good at all if we're considering it a sinker. The fastball appears to be his best pitch, whatever it is, but for the most part it looks like porcello's contact rates are pretty much average across the board.


Actually, from the looks of the arsenal...

Rick Porcello's fastball looks a lot more like Chris Carpenters than Fausto Carmonas

 

[shephech]

Haha! What a joke this thread is.... Porcello does nothing more then impress almost all year long and pitch like a pitcher well beyond his age.

And now this thread.... couple guys sitting around saying Porcello is going to be a bust.... yeah I will take that with a big grain of salt.
::facepalm:: ::facepalm:: :benson:

Shep :ugeek:

 

[UMich92]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/porcellos-rookie-year

I was going off this article ^

On the FanGraphs page, Porcello throws the two seamer 21.7% of the time. That's a far cry from the author's figure of 77%. I think it's a little misleading to call the two seamer a sinker because it is basically the same as his fastball. Maybe I'm not reading the Pitch Fx correctly though.

I think some analysts are misreading Porcello's 2-seam fastball and are calling it a sinker. I really don't think it is a true sinker with a sinker grip of the likes of ****, Lowe, Hershiser, etc. Also, many overlook the fact that not all 4-seam fastballs are thrown with max effort, leading one to believe that there isn't enough disparity in the velocity.

I don't see the potential for either Carmona's dominant run he had nor do I see the potential for wildness and utter ineffectiveness. At this point, I think Porcello's ceiling is somewhere in the range of a sometime all-star to potentially a perennial all-star.

Alex

 

[All The Hype]

Before I say anything, I know much more about Porcello than I do Carmona, but here are some points:

Porcello was probably one of the top 30 pitchers in the AL in 2009 as a 20 year old.

Porcello has better control than Carmona.

Porcello's mechanics are very smooth, so he should be able to avoid pitching-caused injury.

Carmona has the better breaking ball at this point and more consistent velocity on his 4-seamer.

If Porcello's changeup can become consistent, it is a plus plus pitch that fades out of the zone away from lefties, which will be huge for him moving forward.

The way I see it, if Porcello can develop his secondary pitches, he will be a dominant starter. If he does not, the two-seamer/sinker is good enough to make him an effective groundball pitcher, so at worst he will be an average major leaguer.

 

[natsprospects26]

It's amazing what can happen in 6 months....what a turnaround by both of these guys.