Should the Mariners trade Pineda?

[chompsmcgee]

Dave Cameron thinks so, and he's one of the brightest minds the baseball blogosphere has to offer. Check out his article here: http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=422&sid=506991

His argument is that since the Mariners need serious offensive help now for the future and this year's trade market lacks a Cliff Lee-type, Michael Pineda would bring a tremendous return of young talent. He has ace potential, top notch stuff, and is under team control until 2016.

He also makes the point that flamethrowers are always a great injury risk and lists: "If you look at the best pitching performances from players at age 22 over the last decade, you see names like Mark Prior, Scott Kazmir, Rich Harden, Dontrelle Willis, Oliver Perez, and Anibal Sanchez. All of these guys experienced significant problems with injuries and/or a loss of velocity after bursting onto the scene as dominant young hurlers. Even looking at last year's phenoms, we see guys like Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos, and Brett Anderson -- all of whom have lost real value from where they were last summer."

Cameron's offers the idea of a swap with the Reds for "a package built around a switch-hitting catcher with power (Yasmani Grandal), a line-drive hitting first baseman who might be able to play left field or could DH (Yonder Alonso), a third baseman with legitimate power (Todd Frazier), and throw in a decent back-end starter (Travis Wood) to help the M's compensate for losing a member of their rotation."

As an M's fan I wholeheartedly agree that we should at least explore the option of trading Pineda. Somewhat similar to Volquez for Josh Hamilton. Bedard is not going to bring value like we gave up for him, Vargas and Fister would garner too little of a return. Pineda's value may never be higher than right now and he could potentially bring in some top tier offensive talent to compliment Ackley and Smoak.

We desperately need more offense and there isn't any help coming from our minor leagues in the near future. Also, the Mariners have Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, and Paxton not too far down the road as well.

What do you guys think?

 

[StrasburgMania]

I say trade Pineda or Felix. Any possibilities they land Jose Reyes?

 

[Zymco]

I understand his point of preferring a hitter over a pitching as far as longevity and being the face of your franchise, but the basis is just stupid. Pineda is locked up for many years to come and he is saying that the Mariners should trade him because they can't hit. Here's a newsflash, no one can hit in Safceo. If Adrian Beltre can't drive the ball in Safceo nobody can, they are best building around a pitching staff and try and make that a strength and continue to produce line-drive gap hitters like Ackley and Smoak. There is no point going out and getting power guys' that will simply have stupid home/road splits. They should have kept Morrow, but whatever he is gone continue to develop your pitching from within, because it is terribly expensive in the free-agent market and try and do what the Giants did last year. If you are going to trade anyone, trade Berdard he has value right now.

 

[SydBarrett]

I'd only trade for Kemp or Upton.

 

[Superhuskiefan1]

I'd only trade for Kemp or Upton.

+1

 

[markakis8]

makes perfect sense to me. id entertain offers.

that reds package sounds ideal as well. i would want AT LEAST three young guys that could step right in and play.

 

[ballerskrip]

I understand his point of preferring a hitter over a pitching as far as longevity and being the face of your franchise, but the basis is just stupid. Pineda is locked up for many years to come and he is saying that the Mariners should trade him because they can't hit. Here's a newsflash, no one can hit in Safceo. If Adrian Beltre can't drive the ball in Safceo nobody can, they are best building around a pitching staff and try and make that a strength and continue to produce line-drive gap hitters like Ackley and Smoak. There is no point going out and getting power guys' that will simply have stupid home/road splits. They should have kept Morrow, but whatever he is gone continue to develop your pitching from within, because it is terribly expensive in the free-agent market and try and do what the Giants did last year. If you are going to trade anyone, trade Berdard he has value right now.

agreed on ALL points.

skrip

 

[chompsmcgee]

I understand his point of preferring a hitter over a pitching as far as longevity and being the face of your franchise, but the basis is just stupid. Pineda is locked up for many years to come and he is saying that the Mariners should trade him because they can't hit. Here's a newsflash, no one can hit in Safceo. If Adrian Beltre can't drive the ball in Safceo nobody can, they are best building around a pitching staff and try and make that a strength and continue to produce line-drive gap hitters like Ackley and Smoak. There is no point going out and getting power guys' that will simply have stupid home/road splits. They should have kept Morrow, but whatever he is gone continue to develop your pitching from within, because it is terribly expensive in the free-agent market and try and do what the Giants did last year. If you are going to trade anyone, trade Berdard he has value right now.

Edgar Martinez had no trouble hitting at Safeco at age 37. In 2008, Jose Lopez hit .313 and 13 HRs with a .511 SLG at home. Jose Lopez! Left-handed pull power hitters do just fine at there as well. I think fans tend to use Safeco as a crutch to reasons why you shouldn't add hitting in Seattle. Sure, it takes some pop away from righties but it's not like it's impossible to hit one out.

I'm not saying the M's should just swap Pineda for one power hitter. They should shop him for 3-4 pieces of the future, including a couple hitters with some pop. Pineda is the only pitcher not named Felix who would bring a quality return. For Bedard, we might get a single prospect with some upside but nothing like what Pineda would bring. Trading Bedard makes little sense unless Bill Bavasi wants him back and is willing to shell out some top prospects. What kind of return would you expect for a 32-year old injury prone #3 starter?

Here's another news flash: the Mariners play half their games outside of Safeco.

 

[bigredmachine]

No way Reds would give up all those players. Reds dont need pitching anyway.

 

[Zymco]

I understand his point of preferring a hitter over a pitching as far as longevity and being the face of your franchise, but the basis is just stupid. Pineda is locked up for many years to come and he is saying that the Mariners should trade him because they can't hit. Here's a newsflash, no one can hit in Safceo. If Adrian Beltre can't drive the ball in Safceo nobody can, they are best building around a pitching staff and try and make that a strength and continue to produce line-drive gap hitters like Ackley and Smoak. There is no point going out and getting power guys' that will simply have stupid home/road splits. They should have kept Morrow, but whatever he is gone continue to develop your pitching from within, because it is terribly expensive in the free-agent market and try and do what the Giants did last year. If you are going to trade anyone, trade Berdard he has value right now.

Edgar Martinez had no trouble hitting at Safeco at age 37. In 2008, Jose Lopez hit .313 and 13 HRs with a .511 SLG at home. Jose Lopez! Left-handed pull power hitters do just fine at there as well. I think fans tend to use Safeco as a crutch to reasons why you shouldn't add hitting in Seattle. Sure, it takes some pop away from righties but it's not like it's impossible to hit one out.

I'm not saying the M's should just swap Pineda for one power hitter. They should shop him for 3-4 pieces of the future, including a couple hitters with some pop. Pineda is the only pitcher not named Felix who would bring a quality return. For Bedard, we might get a single prospect with some upside but nothing like what Pineda would bring. Trading Bedard makes little sense unless Bill Bavasi wants him back and is willing to shell out some top prospects. What kind of return would you expect for a 32-year old injury prone #3 starter?

Here's another news flash: the Mariners play half their games outside of Safeco.

I might have put a bit too much emphasis on the park, but at the end of the day I don't think any of the things we are commenting on are the actual problem. I think the Bill Bevasi completely ran that franchise into the ground, and I think they are in a nice rebuilding phase now, I don't think it makes any sense to trade a 23 year old at 6'7" that looks like an ace RIGHT NOW. Sure you could panic and say that they need hitting, but whats the rush? They are in a bad division, where it seems almost popular to play small ball with a big emphasis on pitching (outside of Texas) so why not continue to do it how you are doing it now, they are actually competing! I think this is just a crazy idea by a blogger and the only reason it has picked up any traction is the lack of hitting in Seattle, but I think that will continue to develop. Like others have said the only way I even answer the phone when someone is calling about Pineda is if they are dangling Upton or Kemp, which will not happen. One thing you have to realize is not all prospects turn out like Pineda, you could trade him for 3-4 pieces you think will put you into a better place, and maybe only one of them pains out into a decent major leaguer. There is no reason to make this trade, especially after you've just traded one ace away in Brandon Morrow after an almost laughable development.

 

[RustyGreerFan]

As a Mariners fan I thought it was dumb until I saw the package he was spitballin'. Then I thought it sounded pretty damn good.

But then I started thinking about what it really takes to succeed in MLB. Once you get to the playoffs YOU HAVE TO HAVE A COUPLE ACES. Especially in a short series. What good will it do to have Grandal, Alonso, and Frazier when you're facing back-to-back studs?

That package may help the Mariners get TO the playoffs, but they won't be winning any World Series. Go for it all!

The M's will need to find a way to have their cake and eat it too. Keep Pineda and make the GM come up with some offense some other way. Or just outbid everyone on Darvish and hope they win those games 1-0

 

[James52411]

Dave Cameron has out-thought himself.

 

[chompsmcgee]

I understand his point of preferring a hitter over a pitching as far as longevity and being the face of your franchise, but the basis is just stupid. Pineda is locked up for many years to come and he is saying that the Mariners should trade him because they can't hit. Here's a newsflash, no one can hit in Safceo. If Adrian Beltre can't drive the ball in Safceo nobody can, they are best building around a pitching staff and try and make that a strength and continue to produce line-drive gap hitters like Ackley and Smoak. There is no point going out and getting power guys' that will simply have stupid home/road splits. They should have kept Morrow, but whatever he is gone continue to develop your pitching from within, because it is terribly expensive in the free-agent market and try and do what the Giants did last year. If you are going to trade anyone, trade Berdard he has value right now.

Edgar Martinez had no trouble hitting at Safeco at age 37. In 2008, Jose Lopez hit .313 and 13 HRs with a .511 SLG at home. Jose Lopez! Left-handed pull power hitters do just fine at there as well. I think fans tend to use Safeco as a crutch to reasons why you shouldn't add hitting in Seattle. Sure, it takes some pop away from righties but it's not like it's impossible to hit one out.

I'm not saying the M's should just swap Pineda for one power hitter. They should shop him for 3-4 pieces of the future, including a couple hitters with some pop. Pineda is the only pitcher not named Felix who would bring a quality return. For Bedard, we might get a single prospect with some upside but nothing like what Pineda would bring. Trading Bedard makes little sense unless Bill Bavasi wants him back and is willing to shell out some top prospects. What kind of return would you expect for a 32-year old injury prone #3 starter?

Here's another news flash: the Mariners play half their games outside of Safeco.

I might have put a bit too much emphasis on the park, but at the end of the day I don't think any of the things we are commenting on are the actual problem. I think the Bill Bevasi completely ran that franchise into the ground, and I think they are in a nice rebuilding phase now, I don't think it makes any sense to trade a 23 year old at 6'7" that looks like an ace RIGHT NOW. Sure you could panic and say that they need hitting, but whats the rush? They are in a bad division, where it seems almost popular to play small ball with a big emphasis on pitching (outside of Texas) so why not continue to do it how you are doing it now, they are actually competing! I think this is just a crazy idea by a blogger and the only reason it has picked up any traction is the lack of hitting in Seattle, but I think that will continue to develop. Like others have said the only way I even answer the phone when someone is calling about Pineda is if they are dangling Upton or Kemp, which will not happen. One thing you have to realize is not all prospects turn out like Pineda, you could trade him for 3-4 pieces you think will put you into a better place, and maybe only one of them pains out into a decent major leaguer. There is no reason to make this trade, especially after you've just traded one ace away in Brandon Morrow after an almost laughable development.

You hit in right on the head with Bavasi. He decimated the franchise with bad trades and awful contracts.

The emphasis on rush isn't really a win-now rush, it's a win for now and the future. This franchise hasn't sniffed the post season since 2003 and the fan-base is very anxious. I'd venture to bet some Mariner fans on this board are too young to remember what the city and atmosphere was like when there was a winner in town. So to say there is some anxiousness to win it's because Seattle is desperate for a winner.

Here are the facts:
1) the Mariners currently don't have the organizational depth offensively to help now or in the near future. We don't have a single major league caliber left fielder in the system.
2) Pineda is awesome now but as history has shown, young fireballers often end up with career defining injuries. You have to keep it in perspective that he's a relative unknown quantity beyond this year. And if you have to sell, sell high.
3) the Mariners have, and will always have, pitching depth. Hultzen, Walker, Paxton all have front-line stuff.
4) the M's aren't likely to get impact bats via free agency.

oh and

5) Brandon Morrow is not an ace nor a future ace. While I admit that development was botched and the trade wasn't Jack Z's finest, in reality it wasn't too terrible. Morrow will always have top notch stuff and flaky command. He'll always be streaky and have the inconsistent outings, striking out 10 and giving up 1 ER then getting shelled for 9 ER in less than 5 innings of work. The Mariners got their current closer for him, who besides one bad week of work has been pretty solid. So let's be real and call this one like it is.

The Mariners have to do something. Not enough talent to sit around and wait for the farm system. Felix is only here a few more years so we need to do something to efficiently use one of the top pitcher's in baseball. Pineda is our best trade chip not named Felix. And Pineda is never going to be Felix.

 

[chompsmcgee]

Here's Dave Cameron's response to the criticism of the Pineda trade idea, posted from USSMariner.com:

I get that a lot of people think the idea of trading Michael Pineda away is crazy. It’s just not something you see teams do – in almost every case, they keep their best young players around and hope for the best. But, let me turn the tables and present the question in a slightly different manner.

Let’s say that the team was in exactly the same position in the standings that they are right now at 39-42, 4 games out of first place. However, instead of Jack Cust struggling at DH, they had 24-year-old Yonder Alonso, a left-handed hitting line drive guy with some upside. Instead of Adam Kennedy and Chone Figgins platooning at third base, they had 25-year-old Todd Frazier adding some right-handed power to the line-up. The rotation featured a 24-year-old lefty in Travis Wood who had racked up +3.2 WAR in 196 innings at the big league level and was a perfect fit for Safeco Field. And, down on the farm, the best prospect in the system was a 22-year-old switch-hitting catcher with patience and power, the fruit of the team’s high selection in the first round a year ago.

Would anyone here really be suggesting that the Mariners trade three guys off their Major League roster and their best prospect remaining in the minors – one of the very best catching prospects in the game, by the way – for a starting pitcher? Anyone?

...

I get that watching Michael Pineda is exciting, and dreaming of what he could be is one of the most fun things about being a Mariner fan right now. However, if the tables were flipped and Pineda was already in Cincinnati, and the Mariners had Grandal, Alonso, Frazier, and Wood in the organization, I just don’t think we’d be seeing massive support for trading them all away to acquire Pineda and build an uber-rotation. I think the reaction to that suggestion would be something along the lines of “the pitching is already very good, why create huge holes on the roster to upgrade the strength of the team?”

I’m just saying that if you wouldn’t make the trade if the tables were turned, then maybe it’s not such a crazy idea after all.

 

[Eamon]

I'd only trade for Kemp or Upton.

they dont want to spend money on a player like that, they want to get cheap young guys they can control for a couple years.

 

[sportscardtheory]

Why trade young talent for young talent. It makes little sense. You know what you have in Pineda.

 

[James52411]

Here's Dave Cameron's response to the criticism of the Pineda trade idea, posted from USSMariner.com:

I get that a lot of people think the idea of trading Michael Pineda away is crazy. It’s just not something you see teams do – in almost every case, they keep their best young players around and hope for the best. But, let me turn the tables and present the question in a slightly different manner.

Let’s say that the team was in exactly the same position in the standings that they are right now at 39-42, 4 games out of first place. However, instead of Jack Cust struggling at DH, they had 24-year-old Yonder Alonso, a left-handed hitting line drive guy with some upside. Instead of Adam Kennedy and Chone Figgins platooning at third base, they had 25-year-old Todd Frazier adding some right-handed power to the line-up. The rotation featured a 24-year-old lefty in Travis Wood who had racked up +3.2 WAR in 196 innings at the big league level and was a perfect fit for Safeco Field. And, down on the farm, the best prospect in the system was a 22-year-old switch-hitting catcher with patience and power, the fruit of the team’s high selection in the first round a year ago.

Would anyone here really be suggesting that the Mariners trade three guys off their Major League roster and their best prospect remaining in the minors – one of the very best catching prospects in the game, by the way – for a starting pitcher? Anyone?

...

I get that watching Michael Pineda is exciting, and dreaming of what he could be is one of the most fun things about being a Mariner fan right now. However, if the tables were flipped and Pineda was already in Cincinnati, and the Mariners had Grandal, Alonso, Frazier, and Wood in the organization, I just don’t think we’d be seeing massive support for trading them all away to acquire Pineda and build an uber-rotation. I think the reaction to that suggestion would be something along the lines of “the pitching is already very good, why create huge holes on the roster to upgrade the strength of the team?”

I’m just saying that if you wouldn’t make the trade if the tables were turned, then maybe it’s not such a crazy idea after all.

This guy is supposed to be "one of the smartest" MLB bloggers? What a friggin' idiot. None of those players he mentioned have proven themselves at the MLB level. Pineda is pitching extremely well at the highest level. If the smartest baseball blogger out there can promise me that all of these players will be good MLB players then his comparison is apt. Oh, and I love how he condescendingly says "I get that watching Michael Pineda is exciting" as though the fans disagreeing with him haven't considered the facts of his proposal and are just blinded by Pineda's pretty pitches.

 

[SydBarrett]

Why trade young talent for young talent. It makes little sense. You know what you have in Pineda.

M's need hitting, if you listen to DCs interview here he really only sounds serious about it when they bring up Kemp & Upton. You know what you get with those two, as much as you know what you have in Pineda.

 

[chompsmcgee]

Why trade young talent for young talent. It makes little sense. You know what you have in Pineda.

Dave Cameron sums the answer up best:

"I think the reaction to that suggestion would be something along the lines of 'the pitching is already very good, why create huge holes on the roster to upgrade the strength of the team?'"

 

[chompsmcgee]

Here's Dave Cameron's response to the criticism of the Pineda trade idea, posted from USSMariner.com:

I get that a lot of people think the idea of trading Michael Pineda away is crazy. It’s just not something you see teams do – in almost every case, they keep their best young players around and hope for the best. But, let me turn the tables and present the question in a slightly different manner.

Let’s say that the team was in exactly the same position in the standings that they are right now at 39-42, 4 games out of first place. However, instead of Jack Cust struggling at DH, they had 24-year-old Yonder Alonso, a left-handed hitting line drive guy with some upside. Instead of Adam Kennedy and Chone Figgins platooning at third base, they had 25-year-old Todd Frazier adding some right-handed power to the line-up. The rotation featured a 24-year-old lefty in Travis Wood who had racked up +3.2 WAR in 196 innings at the big league level and was a perfect fit for Safeco Field. And, down on the farm, the best prospect in the system was a 22-year-old switch-hitting catcher with patience and power, the fruit of the team’s high selection in the first round a year ago.

Would anyone here really be suggesting that the Mariners trade three guys off their Major League roster and their best prospect remaining in the minors – one of the very best catching prospects in the game, by the way – for a starting pitcher? Anyone?

...

I get that watching Michael Pineda is exciting, and dreaming of what he could be is one of the most fun things about being a Mariner fan right now. However, if the tables were flipped and Pineda was already in Cincinnati, and the Mariners had Grandal, Alonso, Frazier, and Wood in the organization, I just don’t think we’d be seeing massive support for trading them all away to acquire Pineda and build an uber-rotation. I think the reaction to that suggestion would be something along the lines of “the pitching is already very good, why create huge holes on the roster to upgrade the strength of the team?”

I’m just saying that if you wouldn’t make the trade if the tables were turned, then maybe it’s not such a crazy idea after all.

This guy is supposed to be "one of the smartest" MLB bloggers? What a friggin' idiot. None of those players he mentioned have proven themselves at the MLB level. Pineda is pitching extremely well at the highest level. If the smartest baseball blogger out there can promise me that all of these players will be good MLB players then his comparison is apt. Oh, and I love how he condescendingly says "I get that watching Michael Pineda is exciting" as though the fans disagreeing with him haven't considered the facts of his proposal and are just blinded by Pineda's pretty pitches.

Can you "promise" that Pineda will be as good or better next year? That players won't adjust to his pitching when an in depth scouting report exists? That he won't get hurt?

Michael Pineda has proved himself for all of 16 MLB games. That means he's played 16 more MLB games than any MiLB prospect. He's not an All-Star (yet) and he hasn't pitched over 150 innings anywhere. Until he's pitched 2-3 full years at the highest level he's still a bit of an unknown. Baseball is a game of inconsistencies and 16 games is not a large enough sample size to draw long term conclusions.

When talking about prospects AND rookies you are still dealing almost entirely in speculation.