So who's going to be the BUST of 2012?

[wolfmanalfredo]

I'm guessing this one:

Thats horrifying lol

 

[nborton]

People have a very short memory. Trout was bad last year in his time up. There's no reason to think Harper is done. From a collecting standpoint it may never be the same. If a number one guy doesn't have the MVP year his first year people jump off. If a guy comes in with normal to no hype and plays good but not great he gets collecting love.

 

[sigma_chi]

Absolutely cannot believe that nobody has mentioned Cliff Lee. 2 wins in a full season of starts. I know his other numbers alone aren't bad at all so maybe people are willing to look past the 2-7 record.

 

[hive17]

Related question: Who's the better Japanese import, Darvish or Aoki?

For the money, it has to be Aoki. Aoki might have it based on performance alone.

 

[moxacaine]

Related question: Who's the better Japanese import, Darvish or Aoki?

For the money, it has to be Aoki. Aoki might have it based on performance alone.

I dont know the details of Aoki's contract but the $111 million for Darvish was a huge waste. They could have paid a lot less for mediocrity.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

People have a very short memory. Trout was bad last year in his time up. There's no reason to think Harper is done. From a collecting standpoint it may never be the same. If a number one guy doesn't have the MVP year his first year people jump off. If a guy comes in with normal to no hype and plays good but not great he gets collecting love.

^^^ This is a discussion in itself. Generally it seems once a player falls off the hype bandwagon, its next to impossible for him to get back on it.

 

[wickedliquids]

Oh snap, forgot about Cliff Lee.....what the heck happened to him??! Dude just bottomed out and never regained form. Seemed like he ran out of steam and said to hell with it....

Sent from my LG-LS696 using Sports Cards by Freedom Card Board.com

 

[nborton]

I dont know the details of Aoki's contract but the $111 million for Darvish was a huge waste. They could have paid a lot less for mediocrity.

I feel like Japanese pitchers seems to fall in the "grass is greener on the other side" category. Much the same as NBA teams drafting foreign players looking for the next Dirk Nowitzki.

 

[Austin]

If we're talking veteran busts, none bigger than Justin Upton.

You seriously think Upton has been worse than Lincecum?

Upton has been merely average this season, after an excellent season last year, but he was never a superstar.

Lincecum, however, won two Cy Youngs and was once the NL's most dominating pitcher, and is now one of the worst pitchers in the league with a 5.30 era and 13 losses.

 

[Crewfan82]

People have a very short memory. Trout was bad last year in his time up. There's no reason to think Harper is done. From a collecting standpoint it may never be the same. If a number one guy doesn't have the MVP year his first year people jump off. If a guy comes in with normal to no hype and plays good but not great he gets collecting love.

To be fair, Trout only had 135 PA last year when he was up. Can't put much stock into that. Harper has had 440 PA this year and is stuggling now more than ever. Is he done, no way, but he has come crashing down to earth since his above average start.

 

[chompsmcgee]

You seriously think Upton has been worse than Lincecum?

Upton has been merely average this season, after an excellent season last year, but he was never a superstar.

Lincecum, however, won two Cy Youngs and was once the NL's most dominating pitcher, and is now one of the worst pitchers in the league with a 5.30 era and 13 losses.

Woah slow down there, skippy. You are making two different arguments and talking like a crazy haole. In terms of production, yes Upton (1.8 WAR) has, in fact, been worse than Lincy (2.1 WAR) in 2012. Didn't know there were any "superstar" stipulations to being the biggest bust. Upton undeniably had markedly high expectations put on him this year after finishing 4th in MVP voting and a 6.4 WAR season.

Lincecum's peripherals are in line with his career numbers. Sure, he's a couple ticks slower on his fasatball but boasts a 9.31 K/9 and 4.07 BB/9. He's walking more guys and more fb's are turning into homers, but he's also been a bit unlucky with a .325 BABIP. His 3.78 FIP and 3.73 xFIP actually suggest he's still an above average starter and are only slightly higher than last season. Using loses and ERA as your sole evidence of your Lincy conclusion is a flawed and misleading way to appropriately evaluate pitching.

 

[Austin]

Woah slow down there, skippy. You are making two different arguments and talking like a crazy haole...

Why the insult? And you don't need to get so defense. Geez. I don't even know what that FIP stat means, and neither do the vast majority of baseball fans and collectors.
I understand and respect your use of Bill James type stats in proving Upton has been more valuable than Lincecum, but the fall of baseball's best pitcher has been the topic of conversation all season by commentators on the MLB network and ESPN.
Whether that's statistically factual or not, it's the perception. When fans discuss busts, it's all about the major sexy stats. You may not agree, and I respect that and won't argue with you about it.

 

[nborton]

To be fair, Trout only had 135 PA last year when he was up. Can't put much stock into that. Harper has had 440 PA this year and is stuggling now more than ever. Is he done, no way, but he has come crashing down to earth since his above average start.

That's true. Still I feel age and experience have a ton to do with it. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Harper explode next year with more power than Trout.

I know this has little to do with collecting, but from a career perspective I feel Trout and Harper will be similar players with Trout being more speed centered and Harper more power.

On the collecting side of things, this situation pretty much sums up why I've always felt its soooo risky to invest in guys who get THE most hype. The buy in is so high that they would have to do something record breaking to drive it higher. Where guys like Trout start slow and build steadily. It's more of a reflection of the collectors than anything. Many of the big name guys recently have had good careers, but they weren't the next Pujols so people don't care.

 

[leatherman]

Care to guess who this bust was? It was his first full season, at age 23. His WAR was just 1.7, but he would lead all of baseball with a WAR of 9.5 the next season.

G      PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+
132   443 367 43 72 11  0 18  52 62 136 .196 .324 .373 .697   92

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2012.

 

[ThoseBackPages]

Care to guess who this bust was? It was his first full season, at age 23. His WAR was just 1.7, but he would lead all of baseball with a WAR of 9.5 the next season.

G      PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+
132   443 367 43 72 11  0 18  52 62 136 .196 .324 .373 .697   92

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2012.

Michael Jack!

 

[gt2590]

I'm not a big Will Middlebrooks believer...

 

[wickedliquids]

I'm not a big Will Middlebrooks believer...

Nooooo!!! I'm actually stocking up on him.....why not?

 

[vwnut13]

Care to guess who this bust was? It was his first full season, at age 23. His WAR was just 1.7, but he would lead all of baseball with a WAR of 9.5 the next season.

G      PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+
132   443 367 43 72 11  0 18  52 62 136 .196 .324 .373 .697   92

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2012.

Mike Schmidt?

 

[leatherman]

Mike Schmidt?

Yeah, it's Schmidt. Eric got it when he said Michael Jack.

 

[MOFNY]

Absolutely cannot believe that nobody has mentioned Cliff Lee. 2 wins in a full season of starts. I know his other numbers alone aren't bad at all so maybe people are willing to look past the 2-7 record.

The same could be said about Halladay I guess. Cliff Lee's win total is a complete anomaly. The man has 151 K to 25 BB and a 1.17 WHIP. Sure he has had some bad starts, but he could easily have 12 wins right now. Without looking, I'm sure he gets mediocre run support.