The discrepancy is startling...

[Topnotchsy]

Viewing completed auctions, the difference in price between the 2007 Heyward Chrome RC's and 2008 Chrome Auto'd cards is somewhat startling. I am focusing on blue refractors. The 07's are going for around $90 while the 08's are getting $300+ and one even sold for $400+.

It seems pretty clear that in the mind of the market (I say the "market" and not the "public" because I believe that a large percentage of individuals feel otherwise, but the market as a whole has reacted this way) there is no difference between the two releases with regard to their status as "rookie" cards. Maybe it's just the Chrome label that has the allure, I don't really know.

For someone looking to invest I think that at the current time the 07's are a better investment as I think the market will shift back that way (at least a little) but the discrepancy in price definitely made a statement for me.

Thoughts?

 

[numba1yankeefan]

07 and 08

not 08 and 09

 

[HPC]

The card with the auto will usually draw more money even if the 07 BCDP is the true RC.

Elite's pale in comparison and while still better than Sterlings, even they lack the appeal.

Then again, Elite's were originally referred to as XRC's, and that's why I (and others) still find the 08 Chrome Auto's as legit.

While I think in the long run, the 07 stuff is better since that is recognized by nearly everyone as his rookie cards, the fact is: Chrome Autos are King.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

It could be that people just aren't always thinking 'rookie card' all the time and are just buying what they want?

I don't think of rookie cards very often, but people here do, maybe you're just looking at things through your own lens, even though you think you're not?

 

[sportscardtheory]

I don't see how comparing un-autographed cards with autographed cards makes any sense. And about the "rookie card" thing, people no longer know what a rookie card is, so of course they will just buy the auto that people sell as RCs. I would want the 2007 any day of the week, because I am a rookie card collector, but that's just me. I'm a knowledgeable collector, whereas most people fishing around on eBay are not. Also, you failed to bring up profit margin between the autos and non-autos. You are clearly paying more initially for the autos, so stating that they are unequivocally a better "investment" is not nearly a fact.

 

[phillyfan0417]

07 sterlings are holding their own against the 08's. If you bought at the right time for either, you're a happy person today.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I'm not sure people are understanding what I mean.

Historically speaking, an auto /150 that was not a rookie card would not sell for a tremendous amount. Look at Pujols second year autographs and you'll see that they go for far, far less than Heywards Blue refractor is getting now. The discrepancy between the 07 blue refractor and the price of the 08 autographed blue refractor seems to indicate that the 08's are getting as much of a rookie premium as the 07's ever got.

uniquebaseballcards- thanks edited my post.

sportscardtheory- I would never say that a personal theory related to investing was a fact. I think you were also mistaken on which I said was a better investment. I was saying that I believe the unsigned ones are better investments because I believe the market has shifted toward the 1st Chrome auto further than makes sense. I never said the words "profit margin" but when I talk of a better investment that's exactly what I mean. (What else could it mean?)

As for comparing the two, they are both Heyward and they are both blue refractors. Certainly if the cards were identical as far as features (both signed or both unsigned) the earlier would win out. This is the only comparison that illustrates the idea that I offered.

uniquebaseballcards- Don't believe so. While there is certainly a real market for non-RC auto's, to imagine that a Heyward auto /150 would ever be a $350 card without any rookie related premium seems hard to fathom. No one in the modern era has an autograph /150 that sells for half that much.

 

[rainmanesq]

I think there’s a difference between pujols/heyward. 1st yr auto= chrome. Chrome was god before heyward was god. There is no chrome 1st yr auto for heyward. Thus, God/heyward lovers dictate that you must buy the 08 bc auto.

And yes, I believe the 07 bcdp is a better investment in terms of $ buy in + %/$ ROI. then again, this is true for chromes in general. yes, everyone lusts the superfractors/blingy cards, but the reality is, you can often make more $ (@ a lower cost/risk) off the less blingy cards like refs/xs/blue refs than you can off of the 'drool worthy' flashy cards

Btw, has anyone seen an 07 bcdp heyward blue ref BGS 10? I know 2 exist (I pulled 1 + got a 10, but sold it), but am wondering what THAT would fetch today.

 

[HPC]

Btw, has anyone seen an 07 bcdp heyward blue ref BGS 10? I know 2 exist (I pulled 1 + got a 10, but sold it), but am wondering what THAT would fetch today.

probably $799-$899 based on his other blue ref sales

 

[G $MONEY$]

The card with the auto will usually draw more money even if the 07 BCDP is the true RC.

+1. The Average collector or weekend ebayer would rather have the auto.

 

[rainmanesq]

Btw, has anyone seen an 07 bcdp heyward blue ref BGS 10? I know 2 exist (I pulled 1 + got a 10, but sold it), but am wondering what THAT would fetch today.

probably $799-$899 based on his other blue ref sales

well, i'm hoping the guy i sold it to lists it. i did very well on the sale, but curiosity has gotten the best of me, so i'd like to see him put his 2 blue ref BGS 10s up

 

[Topnotchsy]

I think there’s a difference between pujols/heyward. 1st yr auto= chrome. Chrome was god before heyward was god. There is no chrome 1st yr auto for heyward. Thus, God/heyward lovers dictate that you must buy the 08 bc auto.

And yes, I believe the 07 bcdp is a better investment in terms of $ buy in + %/$ ROI.

Btw, has anyone seen an 07 bcdp heyward blue ref BGS 10? I know 2 exist (I pulled 1 + got a 10, but sold it), but am wondering what THAT would fetch today.

I agree. I think that for some the term "chrome" has replaced the word "rookie" for many and the year means less and less.

 

[Topnotchsy]

The card with the auto will usually draw more money even if the 07 BCDP is the true RC.

+1. The Average collector or weekend ebayer would rather have the auto.

Could be true but the price difference is huge and that has to be associated with the word "1st Chrome Auto" being viewed as "RC" regardless of the year.

 

[rainmanesq]

I think there’s a difference between pujols/heyward. 1st yr auto= chrome. Chrome was god before heyward was god. There is no chrome 1st yr auto for heyward. Thus, God/heyward lovers dictate that you must buy the 08 bc auto.

And yes, I believe the 07 bcdp is a better investment in terms of $ buy in + %/$ ROI.

Btw, has anyone seen an 07 bcdp heyward blue ref BGS 10? I know 2 exist (I pulled 1 + got a 10, but sold it), but am wondering what THAT would fetch today.

I agree. I think that for some the term "chrome" has replaced the word "rookie" for many and the year means less and less.

Different strokes for different folks. Some people ‘chase the latest flavor’- e.g., when elite’s hot, chrome prices drop, when sterling comes out, elite drops, contenders and threads get some love for about 2 seconds, usa gets some love, etc. Some people are diehards about 1 set- ex., Adam (NEC)/Docsilvey/topprospect + their USA love, JP and his deranged chrome obsession, etc. Others (like Rich G from the BMB days) will ONLY buy a card/guy AFTER he has ‘proven himself’/made it in the majors, so they often by the ‘new’ RCs.

Personally, I buy based on likely $/% ROI, just as I sell when I make a great profit b/c guessing which card will be THE card (I'm not sure there is THE card for heyward like there is for pujols or say mantle) is impossible. I’m not sure 1 seller or investor (or collector- unless they’re OCD/wossa like) can capture ALL the various ‘investments’ in terms of players or cards. I’ve done very well on some guys simply having nothing higher than an xfractor/blue refractor of them. I’ve even done well on some guys simply having base chromes of them.

Lastly, even though the price difference is huge, how many people got say a heyward blue ref au for $40? I'd far rather have 5-10 07 blue refs @ 40 ea. flipped @ 250 ea (assuming they bgs 9.5) than 1-2 08 blue ref aus I paid $150+ for (est. price) + sold for $250. yes, it's great when a guy goes up, but the loss on 'high $' cards can be painful when god doesn't pan out/gets hurt/starts slow.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Different strokes for different folks. Some people ‘chase the latest flavor’- e.g., when elite’s hot, chrome prices drop, when sterling comes out, elite drops, contenders and threads get some love for about 2 seconds, usa gets some love, etc. Some people are diehards about 1 set- ex., Adam (NEC)/Docsilvey/topprospect + their USA love, JP and his deranged chrome obsession, etc. Others (like Rich G from the BMB days) will ONLY buy a card/guy AFTER he has ‘proven himself’/made it in the majors, so they often by the ‘new’ RCs.

Personally, I buy based on likely $/% ROI, just as I sell when I make a great profit b/c guessing which card will be THE card (I'm not sure there is THE card for heyward like there is for pujols or say mantle) is impossible. I’m not sure 1 seller or investor (or collector- unless they’re OCD/wossa like) can capture ALL the various ‘investments’ in terms of players or cards. I’ve done very well on some guys simply having nothing higher than an xfractor/blue refractor of them. I’ve even done well on some guys simply having base chromes of them.

Lastly, even though the price difference is huge, how many people got say a heyward blue ref au for $40? I'd far rather have 5-10 07 blue refs @ 40 ea. flipped @ 250 ea (assuming they bgs 9.5) than 1-2 08 blue ref aus I paid $150+ for (est. price) + sold for $250. yes, it's great when a guy goes up, but the loss on 'high $' cards can be painful when god doesn't pan out/gets hurt/starts slow.

I'm with you 100%. Risk and ROI are pretty much the only factors when I buy and that is why I believe the unauto'd ones are the better buy now. (I don't know if this was the case before the spike. I imagine based on the insane prices the auto's are getting that before the increases it was the better investment. Of course one could argue that no Heyward is a good investment right now.)

I went with base Chrome's with Desmond Jennings (picked up over 450 I believe) and it has been one of my better investments in a while, certainly based on ROI. It's been pretty painful sitting with my Delmon Young SPx's.