The State of Prospecting

[Messier2]

Prospecting has been around for a while but was curious what everyone's thoughts were as to the state of prospecting? Is it healthy, is it struggling, is it growing?

Personally, I think prospecting in the simplest sense (buying low, selling when there is hype or whatever) is thriving. I think as more and more people see the $$$$ being thrown around for technically minor leaguers, it is tempting for them to get "in on the action". Each show I go to, I see new dealers with a "rookies/prospects" section...more and more talk about prospects rather than current mlb'ers.

I also see more and more people busting boxes and keep saying "I have no idea who these people are!". They bust hoping to get the "guy printed on the box top" or whatever...

What do you think? What's the state of prospecting?

 

[jcmint]

Personally I see less of them at shows.

 

[sportscardtheory]

According to Jason Heyward and Ike Davis, business is booming.

 

[pigskincardboard]

Is this a Mike Stanton Topic, I'm confused.

 

[Lifelongfan]

If you have "guessed" right a couple of times---your pretty well hooked. Those who really just "suck" at it have moved onto other types of collecting. To answer your question---I think it is still very strong.

 

[kdailey4315]

It's like the stock market. Where there is a possibility of making money there will be people trying there hand at it. There will be those who make but loads of cash and there will be those who lose but loads of cash. As long as there is a market for baseball cards there will be prospectors trying to make money.

 

[Zymco]

Is this a Mike Stanton Topic, I'm confused.

Not enough exclamation points for that type of thread; although every thread about Stanton at this point would be appropiate.

 

[All The Hype]

I think lots more people are trying to prospect. Thanks to the internet, there are very few prospects that are able to fly under the radar for very long, which makes buy-ins on top prospects much higher than they may have been 10 years ago.

I'd be interested in seeing how many people who call themselves "prospectors" are actually succeeding and have made money overall. I don't think that percentage would be very high.

 

[NECpilgrims8]

The state of prospecting? Back on the upswing.

2002 - 2007 = Prime Years. Great player selection. Sets were nice. Cases were priced well for breaking (for the most part).

2008 - 2009 = Interesting years, where top prospects have done very well, and the companies started to try and make as much as possible in terms of players. Multiple autos of players were coming out. Unlicensed products were the norm.

late 2009 - 2010 & beyond = Back on the upswing, due to the state of the licensing issue. Topps is now the only licensed game in town, and Panini continuing is up in the air. USA cards are now relevant again and can see some really nice gains based on prospect performance.

I am interested to see what the next couple years bring, but I'm also excited about the possibility of past forgotten (and nice!) cards being relevant.

 

[brouthercard]

I think currently prospecting as a whole is down, mainly because most people can't afford to sit on stockpiles of prospects waiting for them to make a splash sometimes several years down the line.

Flipping on the other hand is as hot as ever as people are trying to find a quick way to make a buck.

 

[pigskincardboard]

I think lots more people are trying to prospect. Thanks to the internet, there are very few prospects that are able to fly under the radar for very long, which makes buy-ins on top prospects much higher than they may have been 10 years ago.

I'd be interested in seeing how many people who call themselves "prospectors" are actually succeeding and have made money overall. I don't think that percentage would be very high.

If you can hold onto your investment for at least 3 years, you can make money. The problem for people losing money occurs when they don't have the cash-money to invest long-term, yet invest in long-term prospects.

At the start of last year's chrome draft season, it wasn't difficult to figure out who was the most *major league ready* and if you were looking for liquidity, you should've invested in those guys.

Instead, people get caught up in the high-school pitching hype which is much more volatile.

I don't prospect, I hoard and sell off when I'm not really attached to a particular card.

Just looking at prices, you only really need to clear $3+13% which isn't all that difficult.

Most people don't have the capital to invest heavily in a diversified portfolio, so it's pretty much boom or bust.

Like CDO dependent hedge-funds. giggity-gitty.

 

[KandKCards]

It's still very solid IMO. Heyward's explosion has hooked in even more people, a little bit like how Pujols' chrome auto sort of started the prospecting boom. Everyone wants to be in on the next Heyward. The biggest example of this right now is definitely Stanton.
While prospecting itself is definitely up, I think the number of superstar prospects is pretty low, which I think also has a lot to do with why Stanton is so hot right now. I'm definitely not saying there aren't good players out there, but from a prospectors standpoint, there are fewer than usual. Some of this is due to Razor having some good exclusives (Smoak, Hosmer etc. only have a Razor auto and a USA auto, neither of which is desirable for prospectors who only like chrome).
I think the next sub-category within prospecting to boom is prospects who struggled in their first year or two and then turned it around. After a bad year or so, a lot of people forget about the guy. Lars Anderson is a good example of this. If you bought in the offseason and are selling now, you are doing pretty well with him.

 

[011873]

Oh its up, way up, for sure and I wont even mention the big boys.

Just look at BBA hot list. Monty anyone? Have your name surface on there and up go your cards.

Or have one game (Ramos) and your cards quadruple in price.

 

[Topnotchsy]

It's a cycle that has mirrored the state of the economy as a whole for the most part. The market took a major hit after guys like Gordon and Young were flops (which was right around when the economy started getting shaky.) Now there seems to be a bit more confidence in the market as a whole (at least compared to 8 months ago) and in the same vein prospecting seems to have bounced back. Heyward, Stanton, Ike Davis, Strasburg and Harper have helped spark the prospecting market big time.

 

[MichaelStanton2010]

Prospecting has been around for a while but was curious what everyone's thoughts were as to the state of prospecting? Is it healthy, is it struggling, is it growing?

Personally, I think prospecting in the simplest sense (buying low, selling when there is hype or whatever) is thriving. I think as more and more people see the $$$$ being thrown around for technically minor leaguers, it is tempting for them to get "in on the action". Each show I go to, I see new dealers with a "rookies/prospects" section...more and more talk about prospects rather than current mlb'ers.

I also see more and more people busting boxes and keep saying "I have no idea who these people are!". They bust hoping to get the "guy printed on the box top" or whatever...

What do you think? What's the state of prospecting?

Great topic...now that BA is integrating Bowman Chrome Auto RC into the hotsheet and the most loaded checklist Bowman has EVER released set to launch, along with the Jason Heyward, Stanton, Strasburg hype, and an absolutely LOADED amateur draft forthcoming, I think prospecting is about to hit the all time peak! (IMO)

 

[donrusscrusademan]

prospecting is very good right now. I think a lot of people who never collected but played fantasy baseball are now getting into it. either way, there is always going to be someone who doesnt understand buy low/sell high at all and there possibilities for any true fan to score over a long period of time if they are consistent enough.

I personally cant stand the donruss prospecting look, it drives me nuts. seems like a lot of the prospectors only see dollars and cents after a while. I dont prospect and have only opened 2 packs, choosing to retire with a 50% megahit win percentage :lol:

 

[aaron41984]

It looks too easy but ppl who don't spend much time paying attention are gonna get burned. I think if you are buying into Harper for the long term, you are going to get hurt by every new release. The USA stuff that sold for 1k last year will be a distant memory when his Chrome Auto comes out and then he could pull an Alex Gordon and lose face in the hobby. Buying Stanton right now may yield a quick flip for big $ but buying Stanton next month could mean you pay $250 for a Base chrome Auto that never sees $200 again. Look at Longoria or Ryan Howard, think about what they would have to do to get anywhere near peak prices.

 

[predatorkj]

I think lots more people are trying to prospect. Thanks to the internet, there are very few prospects that are able to fly under the radar for very long, which makes buy-ins on top prospects much higher than they may have been 10 years ago.

I'd be interested in seeing how many people who call themselves "prospectors" are actually succeeding and have made money overall. I don't think that percentage would be very high.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Seriously. My mindframe is this: Look at what Heyward is doing. Look at Ike Davis. These guys are on freaking fire. And people are paying out the ass for their cards. Now anybody who is associated with these boards knows these names and has known these names for a while. I have said it plenty of times before but what you guys post always gets heard. It helps people out who wish to make money and it also helps people out who wish to scoop up what they can when they need to to keep from having to pay for hype impacted cards. Now...what do you think people who are watching these kids tear it up think about this? They are probably wondering..."Hey, if this guys is so badass, how come I didn't hear anything about him before?". Answer...you don't prospect and chances are, if you are honestly willing to pay as much as the cards are currently selling for...you are a big fish. And you probably bust a lot of higher end veteran based wax.

So...my thinking is that eventually prospecting will become bigger than it already is. Instead of wasting tons of cash on patches we have all seen before and autos of palyers that are readily available in the hundreds of thousands(seriously...how many more Griffey, Jeter, or Ripken autos are they gonna churn out?), people are going to get more and more into the prospecting side. Hell...anyone who has been in the hobby for more than 3 years and has had some decent money to spend is gonna get bored. Chances are whether you are a player collector, or a set builder, or even a compulsive buyer of bright and shiney items...you have already filled your gut with as much auto'd and GU'd buffet material as you can. Now people want something new. Instead of seeing the same rehashed crap...they want the next big thing. And at a cheaper price. And some even want a piece of the action.

So I wouldn't doubt it at all if in a year or two, prospecting got a hell of a lot harder. The more people doing it, means the less people getting suckered in when the hype hits. It doesn't mean you can't hit the sleepers when you know what you are looking for. But if there are more people doing it exponentially, then even the sleepers go up in price since there are only so many prospects to go around. And the big name guys will be so damn high out of the gate it will make it damn hard to justify the risk of heading in to such a high buy in. You guys can do what you wish but a truly good thing can only last as long as its kept somewhat hush hush. The more people see, the more they get interested in it. Throw in the chance of making mega dollars and people get giddy. But hey...maybe it will make collecting the vets cheaper.

 

[predatorkj]

It looks too easy but ppl who don't spend much time paying attention are gonna get burned. I think if you are buying into Harper for the long term, you are going to get hurt by every new release. The USA stuff that sold for 1k last year will be a distant memory when his Chrome Auto comes out and then he could pull an Alex Gordon and lose face in the hobby. Buying Stanton right now may yield a quick flip for big $ but buying Stanton next month could mean you pay $250 for a Base chrome Auto that never sees $200 again. Look at Longoria or Ryan Howard, think about what they would have to do to get anywhere near peak prices.

Yeah...but some of these same people are already getting burned or at least burned out on veteran based wax. Besides...even if you purchased Heyward stuff in the beggining, it might have been high but higher most of the time means safer. Not always but if I was propspecting, I'd go for a higher buy in personally because chances are...if I start to feel iffy I can at least turn it for what or close to what I have in it. Plus...people are gonna see what Heyward cards did and the high buy in of future high profile prospects will not deter them. If you knew you could quadruple your money or more...you'd buy in no matter the cost. While it cannot be proven that every high profile prospect pans out...people might be willing to take that gamble. Enough people do it and the buy in becomes insane. It can also affect the prices of the sleepers. Now instead of being able to pick up random base chrome autos for a few bucks...you might be paying $10 a pop. The question is...when does it get so high that it makes it too risky to prospect anymore?

 

[The_ReverendAct2]

I think lots more people are trying to prospect. Thanks to the internet, there are very few prospects that are able to fly under the radar for very long, which makes buy-ins on top prospects much higher than they may have been 10 years ago.

I'd be interested in seeing how many people who call themselves "prospectors" are actually succeeding and have made money overall. I don't think that percentage would be very high.

If you can hold onto your investment for at least 3 years, you can make money. The problem for people losing money occurs when they don't have the cash-money to invest long-term, yet invest in long-term prospects.

At the start of last year's chrome draft season, it wasn't difficult to figure out who was the most *major league ready* and if you were looking for liquidity, you should've invested in those guys.

Instead, people get caught up in the high-school pitching hype which is much more volatile.

I don't prospect, I hoard and sell off when I'm not really attached to a particular card.
Just looking at prices, you only really need to clear $3+13% which isn't all that difficult.

Most people don't have the capital to invest heavily in a diversified portfolio, so it's pretty much boom or bust.

Like CDO dependent hedge-funds. giggity-gitty.

This statement is spot on for me. I am a hoarder that sell off the cards of the player I don't have an affection for. I can hold for the three year time frame and don't get in a rush. I have done well in all sports. still holding on to lebron, sold off some to get back initial investment. Have a few others on the verge. Have some football, Matt Schaub comes to mind, I should make a good amount on him IF this is the year. Wes Hodges might not make back my money, but I like the blue refractors. I have several others that have great potential. Wilson Ramos was one of those low buy-ins that will make me some money. I hoarded the Leaf Limited RC that have a preceived sp of /99, based on release information. Need to find that to prove what should have been on the cards.