The State of Prospecting

[notjomommasclint]

i am going to say poor - fair. not because of the selection of players but how the companies continue to undermine their own product. take jason heyward for instance. if topps leaves his 07 cards as his primary rookie the people who busted 07 will have been able to draw maximum profit from those cases. yet with the introduction of the 08 heyward auto the values of the 07 are diminished because of supply. the same thing will happen with bryce harper. his inital chrome will be the usa then in one or 2 releases we will get his auto "rookie" which slashes at the value of bowman. while the pre 05 (when the prospecting was mad booming) method had a few repeats the system worked better and was more customer friendly. everyone knew the 2004 felix hernandez was his rookie there was no pushing the 2005 green border as such. the future wax values were better as well. i remember sitting on 2 boxes of 04 chrome and flipping them for mad cheddaH! could i do that with 06? 07? 08? 09?

 

[beefycheddar]

[quote="ALL_THE_HYPE":dnb4xl9u]I think lots more people are trying to prospect. Thanks to the internet, there are very few prospects that are able to fly under the radar for very long, which makes buy-ins on top prospects much higher than they may have been 10 years ago.

I'd be interested in seeing how many people who call themselves "prospectors" are actually succeeding and have made money overall. I don't think that percentage would be very high.

If you can hold onto your investment for at least 3 years, you can make money. The problem for people losing money occurs when they don't have the cash-money to invest long-term, yet invest in long-term prospects.

At the start of last year's chrome draft season, it wasn't difficult to figure out who was the most *major league ready* and if you were looking for liquidity, you should've invested in those guys.

Instead, people get caught up in the high-school pitching hype which is much more volatile.

I don't prospect, I hoard and sell off when I'm not really attached to a particular card.
Just looking at prices, you only really need to clear $3+13% which isn't all that difficult.

Most people don't have the capital to invest heavily in a diversified portfolio, so it's pretty much boom or bust.

Like CDO dependent hedge-funds. giggity-gitty.

This statement is spot on for me. I am a hoarder that sell off the cards of the player I don't have an affection for. I can hold for the three year time frame and don't get in a rush. I have done well in all sports. still holding on to lebron, sold off some to get back initial investment. Have a few others on the verge. Have some football, Matt Schaub comes to mind, I should make a good amount on him IF this is the year. Wes Hodges might not make back my money, but I like the blue refractors. I have several others that have great potential. Wilson Ramos was one of those low buy-ins that will make me some money. I hoarded the Leaf Limited RC that have a preceived sp of /99, based on release information. Need to find that to prove what should have been on the cards.[/quote:dnb4xl9u]

Panini reps have stated to me that they will never release pr on them, and the 99 was a mistake.

 

[ThoseBackPages]

Still plenty of money to be made. But Prospecting was much more fun in the 90s.
internet for every 14 year old know it all has killed the fun of it

 

[Mr.Whipple]

I see more guys selling prospects at shows, I would lean to it growing and getting a lil more attention from larger dealers. I dont see that as being a good thing in the long run though. They will push prices higher and their influence will create a unrealistic market, So they can profit very well from it. Sorta like what they did with the low numbered inserts and auto cards. They made cards /50, $300 and in some cases $1000 card's, Companies over produced and the market died over it. Topps has a bad habit of over producing cards and they will give into that influence over the larger dealers. If I were a prospector, Honestly wouldnt want much more growth when it comes to other prospectors. The demand for more cards will only create a supply 100x greater than needed.

 

[cwells46]

I am trying my first hand at prospecting as we currently speak...Not a whole lot of money involved, so if it doesn't work out it wont kill me... :lol:

 

[allstarauction]

I have changed the way I bought over the years... I would say I started off as a "penny stock" guy, buying the cheapest of cheap that showed some hope going forward. Then I moved on to doing a lot of analyzing the sets and comparing Org Ranks/Stats vs. Selling Price. I had some solid success with that, but I just don't have the time to do that anymore. Right now with the lack of research time I really haven't been buying anyone.

I am not as high end as some on here, but I find myself getting into the habit of hoarding a player once I decide to "prospect" them. For every player like Ike Davis (had 10+ Contenders Auto's) and Christian Friedrich (had around 20 Contender Auto's that I sold last year) that hoarding has worked out well with, there are tons of others that it wipes it out with (Sitting on 30+ Yamaico Navarro Contenders ::facepalm:: ).

If you have the money, investing in only the top guys and mostly parallels is the way to go in my opinion, unfortunately that can get very expensive.

In the end, "prospecting" is a hobby itself... Collecting cards and prospecting are two totally different things, and you either like it or don't.

 

[jbhofmann]

Since I began doing a little prospecting on the side, I have enjoyed watching baseball games more and more for the first time since I was about 13.

 

[The_ReverendAct2]

[quote="ALL_THE_HYPE":2tusutwi]I think lots more people are trying to prospect. Thanks to the internet, there are very few prospects that are able to fly under the radar for very long, which makes buy-ins on top prospects much higher than they may have been 10 years ago.

I'd be interested in seeing how many people who call themselves "prospectors" are actually succeeding and have made money overall. I don't think that percentage would be very high.

If you can hold onto your investment for at least 3 years, you can make money. The problem for people losing money occurs when they don't have the cash-money to invest long-term, yet invest in long-term prospects.

At the start of last year's chrome draft season, it wasn't difficult to figure out who was the most *major league ready* and if you were looking for liquidity, you should've invested in those guys.

Instead, people get caught up in the high-school pitching hype which is much more volatile.

I don't prospect, I hoard and sell off when I'm not really attached to a particular card.
Just looking at prices, you only really need to clear $3+13% which isn't all that difficult.

Most people don't have the capital to invest heavily in a diversified portfolio, so it's pretty much boom or bust.

Like CDO dependent hedge-funds. giggity-gitty.

This statement is spot on for me. I am a hoarder that sell off the cards of the player I don't have an affection for. I can hold for the three year time frame and don't get in a rush. I have done well in all sports. still holding on to lebron, sold off some to get back initial investment. Have a few others on the verge. Have some football, Matt Schaub comes to mind, I should make a good amount on him IF this is the year. Wes Hodges might not make back my money, but I like the blue refractors. I have several others that have great potential. Wilson Ramos was one of those low buy-ins that will make me some money. I hoarded the Leaf Limited RC that have a preceived sp of /99, based on release information. Need to find that to prove what should have been on the cards.

[/quote:2tusutwi]

Panini reps have stated to me that they will never release pr on them, and the 99 was a mistake.[/quote]

I have asked several time, and I too have received the same no information answer. It does not take a rocket scientist to know that these are VERY VERY SP'd. I know I have 14 that I have picked up over the last couple of years, but for every 1 of those that show up on the bay or anywhere else there are 50-100 threads and DEEE. I cannot guarantee the /99 number, but they are extremely rare. Only 2 of them are currently listed on the bay. It might actually help their price long term.

 

[All The Hype]

I think lots more people are trying to prospect. Thanks to the internet, there are very few prospects that are able to fly under the radar for very long, which makes buy-ins on top prospects much higher than they may have been 10 years ago.

I'd be interested in seeing how many people who call themselves "prospectors" are actually succeeding and have made money overall. I don't think that percentage would be very high.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Seriously. My mindframe is this: Look at what Heyward is doing. Look at Ike Davis. These guys are on freaking fire. And people are paying out the ass for their cards. Now anybody who is associated with these boards knows these names and has known these names for a while. I have said it plenty of times before but what you guys post always gets heard. It helps people out who wish to make money and it also helps people out who wish to scoop up what they can when they need to to keep from having to pay for hype impacted cards. Now...what do you think people who are watching these kids tear it up think about this? They are probably wondering..."Hey, if this guys is so badass, how come I didn't hear anything about him before?". Answer...you don't prospect and chances are, if you are honestly willing to pay as much as the cards are currently selling for...you are a big fish. And you probably bust a lot of higher end veteran based wax.

So...my thinking is that eventually prospecting will become bigger than it already is. Instead of wasting tons of cash on patches we have all seen before and autos of palyers that are readily available in the hundreds of thousands(seriously...how many more Griffey, Jeter, or Ripken autos are they gonna churn out?), people are going to get more and more into the prospecting side. Hell...anyone who has been in the hobby for more than 3 years and has had some decent money to spend is gonna get bored. Chances are whether you are a player collector, or a set builder, or even a compulsive buyer of bright and shiney items...you have already filled your gut with as much auto'd and GU'd buffet material as you can. Now people want something new. Instead of seeing the same rehashed crap...they want the next big thing. And at a cheaper price. And some even want a piece of the action.

So I wouldn't doubt it at all if in a year or two, prospecting got a hell of a lot harder. The more people doing it, means the less people getting suckered in when the hype hits. It doesn't mean you can't hit the sleepers when you know what you are looking for. But if there are more people doing it exponentially, then even the sleepers go up in price since there are only so many prospects to go around. And the big name guys will be so damn high out of the gate it will make it damn hard to justify the risk of heading in to such a high buy in. You guys can do what you wish but a truly good thing can only last as long as its kept somewhat hush hush. The more people see, the more they get interested in it. Throw in the chance of making mega dollars and people get giddy. But hey...maybe it will make collecting the vets cheaper.

The thing about prospecting is that even if the cards don't change, there will always be a fresh crop of incoming draftees every year. This will keep the excitement in prospecting forever. For people who like the aspect of potentially making money and following baseball, prospecting is a very fun side of the hobby.

It also has got me more invested in the game. Ever since I got into prospecting, instead of just cheering for my favorite team and following the league leaders and general standings, I really enjoy watching individual players.

I think it's really cool to know about a guy when he is drafted and to follow him for years throughout the minors before one day you finally see him on Sports Center hitting his first career homerun or throwing a nasty breaking ball to secure his first career strikeout. It is an even cooler feeling to have researched a guy, bought into his cards, and watch him succeed, making you money in the process.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

I enjoy researching and following vets I didn't follow before because I've picked up a cool card of theirs I enjoy; I learn about rookies the same way, its not something limited to prospecting. This is nothing new, the hobby has always been this way.

One can say the reason why the hobby exists is to further interest in the game, cards reflect the game and wouldn't exist without it. If you like any particular part of the game, its fun when your collecting habits reflect it. Its not as much fun and its not really a hobby when the cards you buy don't really reflect your interest in the game.

The thing about prospecting is that even if the cards don't change, there will always be a fresh crop of incoming draftees every year. This will keep the excitement in prospecting forever. For people who like the aspect of potentially making money and following baseball, prospecting is a very fun side of the hobby.

It also has got me more invested in the game. Ever since I got into prospecting, instead of just cheering for my favorite team and following the league leaders and general standings, I really enjoy watching individual players.

I think it's really cool to know about a guy when he is drafted and to follow him for years throughout the minors before one day you finally see him on Sports Center hitting his first career homerun or throwing a nasty breaking ball to secure his first career strikeout. It is an even cooler feeling to have researched a guy, bought into his cards, and watch him succeed, making you money in the process.

 

[All The Hype]

Sure it's still a hobby. What if my interest in the game is the young rising talent? The way I see it, I don't need 20 different cards of every player I like...one, two, maybe three nice ones will do just fine for my collection. But if I know about a guy three years before 99.9% of the country does, and I have the opportunity to make money on him, why wouldn't I capitalize on that?

Prospecting is a fun project for me and it brings me closer to the game because I know infinitely more about minor league teams and young upcoming players than I ever would have if I had not gotten into prospecting.

I enjoy researching and following vets I didn't follow before because I've picked up a cool card of theirs I enjoy; I learn about rookies the same way, its not something limited to prospecting. This is nothing new, the hobby has always been this way.

One can say the reason why the hobby exists is to further interest in the game, cards reflect the game and wouldn't exist without it. If you like any particular part of the game, its fun when your collecting habits reflect it. Its not as much fun and its not really a hobby when the cards you buy don't really reflect your interest in the game.

The thing about prospecting is that even if the cards don't change, there will always be a fresh crop of incoming draftees every year. This will keep the excitement in prospecting forever. For people who like the aspect of potentially making money and following baseball, prospecting is a very fun side of the hobby.

It also has got me more invested in the game. Ever since I got into prospecting, instead of just cheering for my favorite team and following the league leaders and general standings, I really enjoy watching individual players.

I think it's really cool to know about a guy when he is drafted and to follow him for years throughout the minors before one day you finally see him on Sports Center hitting his first career homerun or throwing a nasty breaking ball to secure his first career strikeout. It is an even cooler feeling to have researched a guy, bought into his cards, and watch him succeed, making you money in the process.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Sure, I understand. It stands to reason to think someone would capitalize on a payday if that person preferred having the money more than the card, no? But as you say, you've learned much more about the game any way you look at it.

One problem is that its tough to learn about all prospects through cards because there are so many of them and not all of them have a card.

Sure it's still a hobby. What if my interest in the game is the young rising talent? The way I see it, I don't need 20 different cards of every player I like...one, two, maybe three nice ones will do just fine for my collection. But if I know about a guy three years before 99.9% of the country does, and I have the opportunity to make money on him, why wouldn't I capitalize on that?

Prospecting is a fun project for me and it brings me closer to the game because I know infinitely more about minor league teams and young upcoming players than I ever would have if I had not gotten into prospecting.

 

[All The Hype]

That's true as well. And I'd actually say that the majority of guys that do have cards are still guys I don't know much or anything about. There are just too many players to know everyone, especially in the minor leagues.

On the flipside, I am able to learn about guys that I don't have cards of by following those who I do. For example, Ryan Strieby has been one of my favorite Tiger prospects for a couple years now with his massive power. But by following him, I was also indirectly following his teammate Brennan Boesch as well. When I realized last year that Boesch may have a shot at the pros, I checked to see if he had cards and sure enough, his 08 BC auto was able to be had for a few bucks. I picked up 5 or 6 parallel autos and was able to make a nice little profit last week when he debuted. I have no real attachment to him since he was a pretty short term investment, so I kept none of them and was happy to take them money in this case.

Sure, I understand. It stands to reason to think someone would capitalize on a payday if that person preferred having the money more than the card, no? But as you say, you've learned much more about the game any way you look at it.

One problem is that its tough to learn about all prospects through cards because there are so many of them and not all of them have a card.

Sure it's still a hobby. What if my interest in the game is the young rising talent? The way I see it, I don't need 20 different cards of every player I like...one, two, maybe three nice ones will do just fine for my collection. But if I know about a guy three years before 99.9% of the country does, and I have the opportunity to make money on him, why wouldn't I capitalize on that?

Prospecting is a fun project for me and it brings me closer to the game because I know infinitely more about minor league teams and young upcoming players than I ever would have if I had not gotten into prospecting.

 

[bigredmachine]

Its better than playing the lottery.