Time to Buy or Sell Kevin Durant?

[kobechromecom]

Article from my website http://Kobechrome.com


Kevin Durant was just starting to heat up in earlier this year…he had a strong season the previous season with around 25 ppg, and his CARDS DID NOT MOVE IN PRICE. In fact they were between $275-$300 each for months without seeing action. There was a huge delay between card movement and player results…

Durant in Jan of 2010 was averaging about 28ppg and I decided to to take action. In sports card investing, you can take full advantage of these “delays”, but you just have to find them. I figured buying them at around $300 a piece would be a great plan, and turns out I was right. I thought that there was no downside considering the way he was playing and wholesale price of his cards. I mean, again, they sat there for months without price movement.


On Jan 18 2010 (Pic #1) I bought a Durant SP Authentic 3 Color Patch Auto for $301.00 a detailed in pic #1. This is an actual e-mail sent to me by Ebay confirming my winning bid on this card. In Feb of 2010 Durant caught fire…really caught fire and the delay caught up with the price finally…by late April 2010 I decided to sell it. They were selling for upwards of $550 for 3 color patch autos…you can say I got screwed on the price, but hey, I paid $301 so anything above $301 was gravy…Good gravy it was =). I sold it for $475 + $7 shipping for a total of $482.00 (minus ebay and paypal fees). Pretty good return in 3-ish months.

This is a lesson in buying “the delay”. Even Lebron James cards had “the delay” and back in 03-04 I did pretty well with it. Now again, is it time to buy Kevin Durant again? If you look at his cards on Ebay and his Etopps chart, his cards have not dipped at all….if they dipped at least 30% I would have jumped in already and bought his best stuff, but they’re trading at the highs. He would need to match or surpass his 09-10 season to keep these prices….I think it’s too risky to buy Kevin Durant cards right now without a dip, but I’ll be looking for more “delays” as the Football and Basketball seasons approach us.

gem-x

 

[Topnotchsy]

You call it "a delay" I call it sustaining performance long enough for people to notice. The reality is that the hobby as a whole can only focus on so many players at once, and at times guys who are deserving of increases get overlooked. Many people sit and ask "what more can a player do to go up?" and at times as you point out, the answer is "nothing more" just keep doing the same. I deal with baseball cards for the most part and Roy Halladay was a prime example last season.

It's an informative post, and that's somewhat unusual on an on-line message boards, so kudos to you for that. Care to predict the next player?

 

[matfanofold]

Durant is a silent star in the NBA, meaning he has just been overshadowed by a few players thus far and has yet to get the hobby recognition he so apparently deserves. He has gotten consistantly better over his first few years, and it's only going to take another few before valid comparisons to the all time greats of the game are being made. How long will it take until he gets the just due, and value, warented? Who knows, but it's sure to come. At current prices, I would be buying his high end stuff all day long.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Durant is a silent star in the NBA, meaning he has just been overshadowed by a few players thus far and has yet to get the hobby recognition he so apparently deserves. He has gotten consistantly better over his first few years, and it's only going to take another few before valid comparisons to the all time greats of the game are being made. How long will it take until he gets the just due, and value, warented? Who knows, but it's sure to come. At current prices, I would be buying his high end stuff all day long.

Are you?

 

[matfanofold]

Durant is a silent star in the NBA, meaning he has just been overshadowed by a few players thus far and has yet to get the hobby recognition he so apparently deserves. He has gotten consistantly better over his first few years, and it's only going to take another few before valid comparisons to the all time greats of the game are being made. How long will it take until he gets the just due, and value, warented? Who knows, but it's sure to come. At current prices, I would be buying his high end stuff all day long.

Are you?

I wish!

My wife barely lets me buy my low end David Price stuff.. :/

But I most certainly would if allowed. I think his cards are some of the best buy's in all of basketball!

I do agree with you though, he's just being overlooked for some reason. Yet, if he continues to average 30 a game, grab his boards, get the blocks, and assists, he will be impossable to ignore.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Durant is a silent star in the NBA, meaning he has just been overshadowed by a few players thus far and has yet to get the hobby recognition he so apparently deserves. He has gotten consistantly better over his first few years, and it's only going to take another few before valid comparisons to the all time greats of the game are being made. How long will it take until he gets the just due, and value, warented? Who knows, but it's sure to come. At current prices, I would be buying his high end stuff all day long.

Are you?

I wish!

My wife barely lets me buy my low end David Price stuff.. :/

But I most certainly would if allowed. I think his cards are some of the best buy's in all of basketball!

I do agree with you though, he's just being overlooked for some reason. Yet, if he continues to average 30 a game, grab his boards, get the blocks, and assists, he will be impossible to ignore.

The numbers are extremely impressive. I don't know much about basketball cards though (recently spent money on basketball cards for the first time buying some Rondo Exquisite's which I moved for a nice profit during the Finals, but I'd be fooling myself if I thought I had a good understanding of the market. Though I may buy back into Rondo if prices drop.)

 

[matfanofold]

Durant is a silent star in the NBA, meaning he has just been overshadowed by a few players thus far and has yet to get the hobby recognition he so apparently deserves. He has gotten consistantly better over his first few years, and it's only going to take another few before valid comparisons to the all time greats of the game are being made. How long will it take until he gets the just due, and value, warented? Who knows, but it's sure to come. At current prices, I would be buying his high end stuff all day long.

Are you?

I wish!

My wife barely lets me buy my low end David Price stuff.. :/

But I most certainly would if allowed. I think his cards are some of the best buy's in all of basketball!

I do agree with you though, he's just being overlooked for some reason. Yet, if he continues to average 30 a game, grab his boards, get the blocks, and assists, he will be impossible to ignore.

The numbers are extremely impressive. I don't know much about basketball cards though (recently spent money on basketball cards for the first time buying some Rondo Exquisite's which I moved for a nice profit during the Finals, but I'd be fooling myself if I thought I had a good understanding of the market. Though I may buy back into Rondo if prices drop.)

Basketball is a odd market. It seems like there is only enough money to support 'top dollar' cards of the top few young stars, a handful of current(and future HOF'ers) and some of the bigger legends of the game. Having said that, there is always 10-20 current younger stars that hover right at the cusp of the barrier, and when they break it, cha-ching!

 

[kobechromecom]

I think the Durant SP Authentic HAS taken a dip...last one sold for $430, which is about a 22% haircut from the $550 high set earlier this season...I may take a dip in the water if I see sub $400 prices for 3 color patches (3 color only)

 

[jeredweaverfan]

The Basketball market, along with the Hockey market, is very odd; great play does not necessarily constitute a rise in prices. A lot of the pricing has to do with who's in the spotlight, more so than other sports.

I believe Durant has a lot of room to go up in the long run... if you're willing to wait that long. He is already performing on the same level as Lebron and Kobe and his best years are still ahead of him. The Thunder already made a playoff run this year giving the Lakers a scare; they are a young team and will continue to improve together.

Now would not be the time to sell, especially since it's the off-season. High-demand basketball cards always increase during the regular season since it's on the minds of collectors. While it would have been smarter to buy into Durant early last season (or last off-season), prices are not too unreasonable at the moment for some of his nice things, especially his SPA Auto Patch.

 

[LegendsHOF]

I would wait to start selling him. You will get maybe less during the offseason as if the season just started. WAIT AND WATCH FOR DEALS