Top 10 Pitching Prospects Per Project Prospect

[AdamF]

Here are some .gifs of Turner from his first start in 2010 along with the 2009 again, for comparison -- I still see violent delivery, though he has calmed it down:

 

[Firebirds11]

Here are some .gifs of Turner from his first start in 2010 along with the 2009 again, for comparison -- I still see violent delivery, though he has calmed it down:

Good videos, but I don't agree that his delivery makes him not a top 10 or rather top 15 pitcher.

 

[AdamF]

Turner's definitely a promising prospect and it's definitely possible that he goes on to have a successful career as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. I just don't see it right now.

 

[AdamF]

For people who tend to prefer ceilings over rankings that are conservative with upside, we published a top 25 prospect list today based on OFP (Overall Future Potential). Here's the link:

http://projectprospect.com/article/2010 ... cts-by-ofp

 

[Incline Investments]

Can I get your thoughts on Mike Montgomery and Jordan Lyles?

 

[AdamF]

Gladly.

Montgomery is exciting because few lefties have his kind of fastball velocity and potential for two above-average secondary offerings, in his change and curveball. But his command still has a ways to go. I honestly expected him to be a lot more polished than he was when I saw him. Still, the foundation is there for him to become a No. 1-2. I'd be cautious with him now because of the elbow injury.

Lyles is remarkably polished for a guy who just turned 20. I don't think he has the stuff to be a No. 1-2 starter, but he could have a long career as a No. 3-4. He has an excellent changeup. The reports I've gotten on his fastball and breaking ball aren't as promising -- I haven't seen him in person, only video.

 

[Incline Investments]

Thanks. There seems to be some conflicting reports on Lyles especially his fastball. I'd like to see him get it into the 92-93 range consistently.

 

[AdamF]

Here are my Lyles notes from a recent scout call:

* Very polished with some more projection
* Good floor, lacks ceiling
* Hard, late-breaking changeup
* FB sits in the low-90s but he has more when he needs it
* Better slider in '10 than '09
* Good command of all three pitches

 

[Incline Investments]

Here are my Lyles notes from a recent scout call:

* Very polished with some more projection
* Good floor, lacks ceiling
* Hard, late-breaking changeup
* FB sits in the low-90s but he has more when he needs it
* Better slider in '10 than '09
* Good command of all three pitches

Good stuff, I appreciate it.

 

[AdamF]

Any time.

 

[pigskincardboard]

This list cracks me up. Not because of the order or even the exclusions, but because of the reaction it evoked.

First, it's not that hard to see Adam's reasoning in any of his lists. Maybe you don't personally agree with it, but it's generally consistent. He's also believes in his selections because of his ranking system. He's not flying by the seat of his pants where the rating system simply rewards high-upside and changes every three weeks. You should be reading prospect lists like you read the newspaper or watch the television. Are you surprised when Fox News drops some crazy-right-wing crap on your face or msnbc goes all liberal? You should be watching the programs with their slant in mind.

Secondly, I like seeing different lists from different view-points.

There is no correct solution and I only wish I could've been around to see "OMFG, THERE'S NO WAY RYAN BRAUN AND RYAN ZIMMERMAN DESERVE TO BE HIGHER THAN ALEX GORDON. I HAVE LOST ALL RESPECT FOR THIS GUY. OMFGLOLZ, WHAT A JOKE!"

Whenever I've had an email for Adam, who I don't know, he's responded with a thought-out, well reasoned, answer. Great guy to bounce crap off and a great community.

 

[AdamF]

Thanks for the kind words pigskincardboard.

We try to educate ourselves and learn as a community. But I absolutely realize that when you publish rankings, you're opening yourself up for criticism. Hopefully people who follow prospects closely realize that the meat of our work is our video and scouting reports. We publish rankings throughout the year because we get a lot of people asking for them. I am fully aware the our methods for evaluating prospects -- weighing floor in heavier than many people and sources tend to -- generally differ from norm. I'm glad that some people appreciate a different perspective and see how much time goes into our evaluations.