Toughest Odds To Pull

[DAVEPETERS239]

I like math so the odds to pull a card always influences what I am willing to pay for something.

I know of a card that has like the odds to pull listed at over a half a million and was wondering if anyone else knew some cards with very tough odds to pull.

I don't mean calculated odds, I mean the stated odds like printed on a box or wrapper.

The one that I think might be the rarest and largest odds is the 2005 Bowman Chrome A-Rod Throwback Exclusives Autograph #94A-AR - Alex Rodriguez card.

The odds to pull this card was an astonishing 1:614,088 packs.

Does anyone else know of any cards with such high odds like this?

 

[AmishDave]

I think that card is the hardest card in history to pull.

 

[CatdaddysCards]

The superfractor non-auto super rare mega error version is the hardest to pull.

 

[IUjapander]

2012 bowman chrome oscar taveras invisi-auto, 1:31415926 packs

 

[MrMet]

What were the odds on that Honus Wagner fold out?

 

[DAVEPETERS239]

So everyone that posted so far is just trying to cause trouble.

Take that crap over to Blowout.

Its not wanted here.

 

[A_Pharis]

Yeah, guys. We can try to see where this goes. We know his past so we can try to steer clear of it.

 

[Lancemountain]

Mets all star cards

 

[AmishDave]

So everyone that posted so far is just trying to cause trouble.

Take that crap over to Blowout.

Its not wanted here.

Not I. I haven't seen anything on a pack that's higher than the 1:614,000 packs. At least that I can remember.

 

[DAVEPETERS239]

Yeah, guys. We can try to see where this goes. We know his past so we can try to steer clear of it.

Not sure what this even means?

My past as in collecting errors?

Is there anything wrong with saving errors?

This post is a legit post asking if anyone knows what the toughest stated odds ever are on a card.

 

[A_Pharis]

Not sure what this even means?

My past as in collecting errors?

Is there anything wrong with saving errors?

This post is a legit post asking if anyone knows what the toughest stated odds ever are on a card.

And I am agreeing with you, but your past with discussion the ARod card is what I am trying to get people to lay off of.

 

[Austin]

I like math so the odds to pull a card always influences what I am willing to pay for something.

The one that I think might be the rarest and largest odds is the 2005 Bowman Chrome A-Rod Throwback Exclusives Autograph #94A-AR - Alex Rodriguez card.

So you're still trying to sell this card for $10,000?
http://www.comc.com/Cards/Baseball/...aph/94AR/ARodriguez_1994/7056777/GRADED/BGS/9

 

[A_Pharis]

[MENTION=1900]Austin[/MENTION] - please.

DAVE - don't feel obligated to respond to posts that steer off of your topic.

 

[AmishDave]

@Austin - please.

DAVE - don't feel obligated to respond to posts that steer off of your topic.

I won't.

 

[Dmscards]

 

[DeliciousBacon]

The odds of pulling any one specific 2014 Topps Platinum 1/1 are 1:8,415,000. That's a 330 card set at 1:25500; pulling any one specific card, be it Puig or Coco Crisp, the odds are 1 in over 8 million.

Ignoring the fact that more than one of those A-Rods exist, the odds seem so high because it is basically a one card set (they only did the Super for the 1994 reprint). Say Topps did a 1/1 Super for each of the four reprint years; your odds of pulling a Super auto go from 1:614088 to 1:153522 or so. Pulling the exact 1994 would still be 1:614088, which is still not as high as pulling that one exact Platinum.

 

[Mighty Bombjack]

Does anyone else know of any cards with such high odds like this?

No, I have never seen odds close to those, and I would wager that those are the longest stated odds in hobby history.

I like math so the odds to pull a card always influences what I am willing to pay for something.

I think you are alone on this. Stated odds mean nothing to me in terms of value, and I would also wager that most (all?) here agree with me.


Interesting topic, though.

 

[MansGame]

View attachment 33883

+1


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Buying Albert Belle cards! PM me!

 

[Juan Gris]

I think you are alone on this. Stated odds mean nothing to me in terms of value, and I would also wager that most (all?) here agree with me.

Agreed. A number of factors go into what I'm willing to pay for a card and the stated odds have never been one of those factors. Why? When I look at a card I check out the front, the back and make a personal decision based on my PC goals. Something I'm not going to do is track down a list of odds for the set (especially if it is a 1/1). If it was the only card made in the set, I could care less what the odds were before it was pulled. The odds of the card being live and for sale are 1:1.

 

[Mighty Bombjack]

Agreed. A number of factors go into what I'm willing to pay for a card and the stated odds have never been one of those factors. Why? When I look at a card I check out the front, the back and make a personal decision based on my PC goals. Something I'm not going to do is track down a list of odds for the set (especially if it is a 1/1). If it was the only card made in the set, I could care less what the odds were before it was pulled. The odds of the card being live and for sale are 1:1.

Exactly! And further, as alluded to by deliciousbacon above, the odds stated for a particular card are largely influenced by the overall checklist, print run, and the number of other cards in that particular subset/insert. Why those factors would influence what anyone would pay for that card, I can't understand.