what if... AL CY

[nborton]

Re: what if...

I have a problem with Quality Starts as a stat as the minimum requirements, 6 IP and 3 ER, equate to a 4.50 ERA. There's nothing quality about a 4.50 ERA. Maybe if the requirements were tightened, say 7 IP and 3 ER (3.86 ERA), I'd be ok with it but not as they are now.

I'm in agreement on that. I just think it should be something similar to quality starts. Where you either achieve it or not based off solely the pitcher's performance.

 

[donrusscrusademan]

Re: what if...

a new article out-

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/4515 ... oung-award

 

[ThoseBackPages]

Re: what if...

...god was one of us?

 

[markakis8]

Re: what if...

...god was one of us?

just a slob like one of us?

 

[donrusscrusademan]

Re: what if...

...god was one of us?

just a slob like one of us?

I think that already holds true, as when he pitched his ERA was in the 5s too often. :shock:

 

[andyduke86]

Re: what if...

a new article out-

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/4515 ... oung-award

Post thanked, that is a great article. Sets out the argument perfectly.

 

[All The Hype]

Re: what if...

Voters love wins, especially when the total starts with a '2' and often devalue other categories.

Not saying it's right, but it takes a truly remarkable, unparalleled season for a losing pitcher to win the Cy Young.

While I don't agree that this is the way it should work, this post is very accurate.

 

[donrusscrusademan]

update: Felix gets the win tonight with 8IP, 0R, 9K

 

[mwashuc06]

Put Felix on the Yankees and he's 2000 Pedro Martinez again...

 

[donrusscrusademan]

Put Felix on the Yankees and he's 2000 Pedro Martinez again...

man that was an awesome season :shock:


heres something interesting from the AP-
"In his 10 losses, the Mariners have scored a combined 10 runs for Hernandez while he was on the mound."

 

[leatherman]

Re: what if...

a pitcher leads the league in ERA, IPs and Ks, but has a losing record? does that not make him the most dominant?

would be interesting to see what happens if Hernandez loses more than he wins down the stretch but passes the one guy ahead of him in ERA.

CY YOUNG AWARD YES OR NO?

ask nolan ryan it happened to him in the 70s when he was with the CALIFORNIA angels... i dont think he won it those couple of years it happened to him

While Nolan Ryan often led the league in Ks, he rarely came in the top 5 in ERA, and really the only season that could be debated for a missed Cy Young for him is 1973. Of course, Palmer had an amazing record while 3rd in the league, and led the league in ERA.

Personally, I wouldn't really say that poor teams cost Ryan any Cy Youngs.

The year in question was 1987. Ryan led the NL with a 2.76 ERA, led the league with 270 Ks, but had an 8-16 record. He was 9th in the league in innings pitched. The Astros averaged 3.28 runs per game in his starts, and scored one or no runs in 11 of his 34 starts.

Oh, he finished 5th in the Cy Young voting.

David

 

[fengzhang]

To win the Cy Young, b/w wins and ERA, you should be really good in one of those categories and decent in the other category. Felix Hernandez doesn't fit that criteria. ERA is great. Wins and win-loss record is not Cy Young-quality.

Of course, people will inevitably bring up the fact that wins is a team-stat. True. But, there aren't many stats out there that are contingent on the individual alone. ERA, for example, depends on the size of your ballpark (Hernandez plays in a great pitcher's park), the quality of the defense behind you, and the quality of your competition (the AL West is usually much weaker than the AL East). There's something to be said for pitching in meaningful games versus racking up strikeouts against the Oakland A's all the time.

 

[andyduke86]

To win the Cy Young, b/w wins and ERA, you should be really good in one of those categories and decent in the other category. Felix Hernandez doesn't fit that criteria. ERA is great. Wins and win-loss record is not Cy Young-quality.

Of course, people will inevitably bring up the fact that wins is a team-stat. True. But, there aren't many stats out there that are contingent on the individual alone. ERA, for example, depends on the size of your ballpark (Hernandez plays in a great pitcher's park), the quality of the defense behind you, and the quality of your competition (the AL West is usually much weaker than the AL East). There's something to be said for pitching in meaningful games versus racking up strikeouts against the Oakland A's all the time.

Not only are wins influenced by the same thing you knock for ERA, it also is more heavily reliant on run support and bullpen. It is completely useless and should be disregarded. ERA has its flaws, sure, including scorekeeper discretion and how many inherited runners your bullpen allows to score. It's also worth strongly factoring in stuff like k/9, bb/9, and innings pitched. Felix has also been excellent against the AL East, including the Yankees. As far as CC goes, he doesn't have to ever face the Yankees, the best offensive team. His team has gotten him a total of 10 runs of support in his 10 losses total! It's not his fault his team has scored over 300 runs less than the Yankees.

 

[fengzhang]

To win the Cy Young, b/w wins and ERA, you should be really good in one of those categories and decent in the other category. Felix Hernandez doesn't fit that criteria. ERA is great. Wins and win-loss record is not Cy Young-quality.

Of course, people will inevitably bring up the fact that wins is a team-stat. True. But, there aren't many stats out there that are contingent on the individual alone. ERA, for example, depends on the size of your ballpark (Hernandez plays in a great pitcher's park), the quality of the defense behind you, and the quality of your competition (the AL West is usually much weaker than the AL East). There's something to be said for pitching in meaningful games versus racking up strikeouts against the Oakland A's all the time.

Not only are wins influenced by the same thing you knock for ERA, it also is more heavily reliant on run support and bullpen. It is completely useless and should be disregarded. ERA has its flaws, sure, including scorekeeper discretion and how many inherited runners your bullpen allows to score. It's also worth strongly factoring in stuff like k/9, bb/9, and innings pitched. Felix has also been excellent against the AL East, including the Yankees. As far as CC goes, he doesn't have to ever face the Yankees, the best offensive team. His team has gotten him a total of 10 runs of support in his 10 losses total! It's not his fault his team has scored over 300 runs less than the Yankees.

So, then why not pick the pitcher with a lower ERA AND more wins (Clay Buchholz)? I'm hearing a lot of k/9, bb/9, BAA, blah blah blah. I don't care if Felix Hernandez is better on the second Tuesday of every month. Those are all ancillary statistics. Past voting patterns have shown that wins and ERA's are practically the only statistics you need to parse out the top Cy Young contenders. The only time when "dominance statistics" (like WHIP or BAA or strikeouts) come into play is when two pitchers each own one of the major pitching categories (like Webb vs. Lincecum a few years back). Both C. C. Sabathia and Clay Buccholz have Cy-Young quality ERA's and win-loss records. Felix Hernandez has a great ERA and some bad luck. It's silly to think we should just do away with a major statistic simply because it's dependent on team play. Almost every major statistic out there is influenced by multiple variables.

 

[nborton]

To win the Cy Young, b/w wins and ERA, you should be really good in one of those categories and decent in the other category. Felix Hernandez doesn't fit that criteria. ERA is great. Wins and win-loss record is not Cy Young-quality.

Of course, people will inevitably bring up the fact that wins is a team-stat. True. But, there aren't many stats out there that are contingent on the individual alone. ERA, for example, depends on the size of your ballpark (Hernandez plays in a great pitcher's park), the quality of the defense behind you, and the quality of your competition (the AL West is usually much weaker than the AL East). There's something to be said for pitching in meaningful games versus racking up strikeouts against the Oakland A's all the time.

Not only are wins influenced by the same thing you knock for ERA, it also is more heavily reliant on run support and bullpen. It is completely useless and should be disregarded. ERA has its flaws, sure, including scorekeeper discretion and how many inherited runners your bullpen allows to score. It's also worth strongly factoring in stuff like k/9, bb/9, and innings pitched. Felix has also been excellent against the AL East, including the Yankees. As far as CC goes, he doesn't have to ever face the Yankees, the best offensive team. His team has gotten him a total of 10 runs of support in his 10 losses total! It's not his fault his team has scored over 300 runs less than the Yankees.

Yep. That's all you need to know to know that Wins mean very little. Beyond even that, I'd be more for wins as a meaningful stat if pitchers completed games like they used to in the beginnings of baseball. Now that they don't it's an even worse stat.

 

[nborton]

To win the Cy Young, b/w wins and ERA, you should be really good in one of those categories and decent in the other category. Felix Hernandez doesn't fit that criteria. ERA is great. Wins and win-loss record is not Cy Young-quality.

Of course, people will inevitably bring up the fact that wins is a team-stat. True. But, there aren't many stats out there that are contingent on the individual alone. ERA, for example, depends on the size of your ballpark (Hernandez plays in a great pitcher's park), the quality of the defense behind you, and the quality of your competition (the AL West is usually much weaker than the AL East). There's something to be said for pitching in meaningful games versus racking up strikeouts against the Oakland A's all the time.

Not only are wins influenced by the same thing you knock for ERA, it also is more heavily reliant on run support and bullpen. It is completely useless and should be disregarded. ERA has its flaws, sure, including scorekeeper discretion and how many inherited runners your bullpen allows to score. It's also worth strongly factoring in stuff like k/9, bb/9, and innings pitched. Felix has also been excellent against the AL East, including the Yankees. As far as CC goes, he doesn't have to ever face the Yankees, the best offensive team. His team has gotten him a total of 10 runs of support in his 10 losses total! It's not his fault his team has scored over 300 runs less than the Yankees.

So, then why not pick the pitcher with a lower ERA AND more wins (Clay Buchholz)? I'm hearing a lot of k/9, bb/9, BAA, blah blah blah. I don't care if Felix Hernandez is better on the second Tuesday of every month. Those are all ancillary statistics. Past voting patterns have shown that wins and ERA's are practically the only statistics you need to parse out the top Cy Young contenders. The only time when "dominance statistics" (like WHIP or BAA or strikeouts) come into play is when two pitchers each own one of the major pitching categories (like Webb vs. Lincecum a few years back). Both C. C. Sabathia and Clay Buccholz have Cy-Young quality ERA's and win-loss records. Felix Hernandez has a great ERA and some bad luck. It's silly to think we should just do away with a major statistic simply because it's dependent on team play. Almost every major statistic out there is influenced by multiple variables.

While it is true that almost all the major stats are influenced, it's the degree of influence with wins. Pretty much everyone is in agreement that Wins have the most dependence on team success than any other pitching stat.

It does make me wonder though when we will stat to see a shift in voting. I do think it's coming eventually. Especially with people paying more attention to stats like WHIP and other stats that weren't widely followed in the past. Fantasy games have a lot to do with it too.

 

[andyduke86]

To win the Cy Young, b/w wins and ERA, you should be really good in one of those categories and decent in the other category. Felix Hernandez doesn't fit that criteria. ERA is great. Wins and win-loss record is not Cy Young-quality.

Of course, people will inevitably bring up the fact that wins is a team-stat. True. But, there aren't many stats out there that are contingent on the individual alone. ERA, for example, depends on the size of your ballpark (Hernandez plays in a great pitcher's park), the quality of the defense behind you, and the quality of your competition (the AL West is usually much weaker than the AL East). There's something to be said for pitching in meaningful games versus racking up strikeouts against the Oakland A's all the time.

Not only are wins influenced by the same thing you knock for ERA, it also is more heavily reliant on run support and bullpen. It is completely useless and should be disregarded. ERA has its flaws, sure, including scorekeeper discretion and how many inherited runners your bullpen allows to score. It's also worth strongly factoring in stuff like k/9, bb/9, and innings pitched. Felix has also been excellent against the AL East, including the Yankees. As far as CC goes, he doesn't have to ever face the Yankees, the best offensive team. His team has gotten him a total of 10 runs of support in his 10 losses total! It's not his fault his team has scored over 300 runs less than the Yankees.

So, then why not pick the pitcher with a lower ERA AND more wins (Clay Buchholz)? I'm hearing a lot of k/9, bb/9, BAA, blah blah blah. I don't care if Felix Hernandez is better on the second Tuesday of every month. Those are all ancillary statistics. Past voting patterns have shown that wins and ERA's are practically the only statistics you need to parse out the top Cy Young contenders. The only time when "dominance statistics" (like WHIP or BAA or strikeouts) come into play is when two pitchers each own one of the major pitching categories (like Webb vs. Lincecum a few years back). Both C. C. Sabathia and Clay Buccholz have Cy-Young quality ERA's and win-loss records. Felix Hernandez has a great ERA and some bad luck. It's silly to think we should just do away with a major statistic simply because it's dependent on team play. Almost every major statistic out there is influenced by multiple variables.

You're right, if voters vote on traditional criteria, the way writers usually do, CC is the clear favorite.

If voters vote based on individual performance or valued individual performance the same way MLB teams do, Felix is a clear favorite.