What is a "Can't Beat" price for 2010 Bowman Chrome?

[Leaf]

What is a "Can't Beat" price for 2010 Bowman Chrome?

If you really want to buy some, PM me.. I know a guy looking to move up to 50 cases at sharpest price in the free world,... Bg

 

[MarlinsManiac20]

Re: What is a

whoops meant to be a pm!

 

[hive17]

I can tell you this...if you look at most of the people on this forum upset with BC, it's not because they bought cases at $650. And if everyone else is selling at $899, all the people buying at $650 should be jumping for joy... I can guarantee that if we took a poll, most people who bought BC before today paid $750+. Anyone that paid less would be the minority and a very small percentage. $750 would be a more accurate measurement of TMV.

The current market value is $550, not $899, not $750, not $650, it's $550.

You are completely neglecting the outside influences that change the products value.

The true market value is $550, if you don't believe me ask atlanta sportscards. They have it currently listed at $899 on their website, yet they have sold a handful for $550 on ebay in the last 24 hours and they listed more today.

Trust me, I understand what you are saying. You are saying that if people go to ebay right now, they can find cases at $550. That point is clear...clear as day. But to say that's TMV is very misleading. Because I can't walk into my LCS and get that price. I can't go to any retailer and get that price. Even if I tried to buy a box off someone on this forum, I can promise you, they will not give me that price. If I was at the Expo in Toronto, I would not get that price. Because it's NOT TMV.

If I'm a retailer...and I ordered 100 cases at $400 a case and listed it at $900 per case. Then demand is low and I realize I'm going to be stuck with $40,000 worth of merchandise...so I offload cases at cost. Saves me from my money being tied up in stock and it benefits the cusomters who get an incredible discount. Even though I'm selling cases WAY below everyone else, it still doesn't make it the TMV. It's still just a discount. Because everyone else is still selling it for much more.

Anyway, this argument is going nowhere. It's clear you and I don't have the same perspective of the market. Regardless, this is way off topic from the OP. Clearly, the OP wasn't factoring in ebay either.

Going by your numbers, it's a good time to buy BC. $45 per box is a good price. How many cases have you purchased? And you should clue everyone else in on where you are finding these prices so that we can get some good breaks on this board.

Sorry I have my masters in economics and we've actually discussed a topic like this to death so I'm stuck to my perspective.

I haven't purchased a single case yet as I'm waiting for prices to drop. Last case sold for $512 a few minutes ago to a seller with 4500 feedback at 100%. Atlanta still has cases ending tonight as well. I'm waiting till it drops to $400ish to jump in, which is $33 per box.

No point buying while it declines, I'm going to wait till it hits the floor. I think it hits $400 by next week.

I think I'll ask you a question that I trust someone with a Masters to answer: What percentage of sales is enough to lable it as Market Value? See, unless you know that X% is availible through eBay, couldn't it be argued that eBay isn't a large enough "Market" to consider the fair market value? We all assume (and I think this was Andrew's point) that EVERYTHING revolves around eBay. But unless someone fiercely tracks EVERY sale of a product, we can't know what eBay has compared to anywhere else.

What if I told you that only 10% of the product was sold on eBay? Is that still market value if EVERYWHERE else is able to get 25% more than eBay (online stores, brick-and-mortar, card shows)? That's what we can't know at this point, so you can't argue definately that $550 is FMV if it's only 10% sales.

You argue that "well, if I can get it for cheaper, doesn't that mean that's the lowest and the 'actual' price?" But if the bulk of sales are above that, then it's still not value. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not how little someone "could" buy something for, it's what they DO buy something for. If the total sales are higher than eBay, then eBay is just a place to get deals, since it doesn't hold the largest part of the market.

Again, we can't really know ANY of this.

 

[SeattleSports]

I can tell you this...if you look at most of the people on this forum upset with BC, it's not because they bought cases at $650. And if everyone else is selling at $899, all the people buying at $650 should be jumping for joy... I can guarantee that if we took a poll, most people who bought BC before today paid $750+. Anyone that paid less would be the minority and a very small percentage. $750 would be a more accurate measurement of TMV.

The current market value is $550, not $899, not $750, not $650, it's $550.

You are completely neglecting the outside influences that change the products value.

The true market value is $550, if you don't believe me ask atlanta sportscards. They have it currently listed at $899 on their website, yet they have sold a handful for $550 on ebay in the last 24 hours and they listed more today.

Trust me, I understand what you are saying. You are saying that if people go to ebay right now, they can find cases at $550. That point is clear...clear as day. But to say that's TMV is very misleading. Because I can't walk into my LCS and get that price. I can't go to any retailer and get that price. Even if I tried to buy a box off someone on this forum, I can promise you, they will not give me that price. If I was at the Expo in Toronto, I would not get that price. Because it's NOT TMV.

If I'm a retailer...and I ordered 100 cases at $400 a case and listed it at $900 per case. Then demand is low and I realize I'm going to be stuck with $40,000 worth of merchandise...so I offload cases at cost. Saves me from my money being tied up in stock and it benefits the cusomters who get an incredible discount. Even though I'm selling cases WAY below everyone else, it still doesn't make it the TMV. It's still just a discount. Because everyone else is still selling it for much more.

Anyway, this argument is going nowhere. It's clear you and I don't have the same perspective of the market. Regardless, this is way off topic from the OP. Clearly, the OP wasn't factoring in ebay either.

Going by your numbers, it's a good time to buy BC. $45 per box is a good price. How many cases have you purchased? And you should clue everyone else in on where you are finding these prices so that we can get some good breaks on this board.

Sorry I have my masters in economics and we've actually discussed a topic like this to death so I'm stuck to my perspective.

I haven't purchased a single case yet as I'm waiting for prices to drop. Last case sold for $512 a few minutes ago to a seller with 4500 feedback at 100%. Atlanta still has cases ending tonight as well. I'm waiting till it drops to $400ish to jump in, which is $33 per box.

No point buying while it declines, I'm going to wait till it hits the floor. I think it hits $400 by next week.

I think I'll ask you a question that I trust someone with a Masters to answer: What percentage of sales is enough to lable it as Market Value? See, unless you know that X% is availible through eBay, couldn't it be argued that eBay isn't a large enough "Market" to consider the fair market value? We all assume (and I think this was Andrew's point) that EVERYTHING revolves around eBay. But unless someone fiercely tracks EVERY sale of a product, we can't know what eBay has compared to anywhere else.

What if I told you that only 10% of the product was sold on eBay? Is that still market value if EVERYWHERE else is able to get 25% more than eBay (online stores, brick-and-mortar, card shows)? That's what we can't know at this point, so you can't argue definately that $550 is FMV if it's only 10% sales.

You argue that "well, if I can get it for cheaper, doesn't that mean that's the lowest and the 'actual' price?" But if the bulk of sales are above that, then it's still not value. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not how little someone "could" buy something for, it's what they DO buy something for. If the total sales are higher than eBay, then eBay is just a place to get deals, since it doesn't hold the largest part of the market.

Again, we can't really know ANY of this.

To an extent but what I'm arguing is that this is going to be a completely unique situation. My point is that in this situation the largest distributors loaded up beyond belief and because demand was miscalculated, supply is at an astronomical number. LCS's/Distributors will be forced to dump on ebay as they cannot afford to have so much capital in a particular product. When the large distributors made their orders, they were anticipating a repeat of 2010 Bowman where the stuff sold like gold so they ordered a ridiculous amount. Topps then printed said ridiculous amount and now with Strasburgs injury and the adverse effects of cranking of the print run, supply and demand are meeting below factory cost.

In a normal situation, maybe 10% of cases are listed on ebay. But I have a feeling this is going to be the perfect storm, and that % increases but with a higher print run, volume increases as well.

Here is an example, this morning there were 23 cases on ebay listed via auction which is an absurd # for any other year. After 12+ have ended today, there are now 45 cases listed. Some listings are for 2+ case lots and some are for 5 cases. I think when the average joe or an LCS dumping inventory or the large distributors start dumping cases, it will be higher than your 10% (yes I know thats not accurate, but higher than a normal year is what I'm saying) by an alarming amount and prices will tank dramatically.

Cases were selling via auction for $620 this morning, then $605, then $590, then $560, then $537 and now $512. There are 6 cases ending in the next 25 minutes, as they end more will be listed. If people continue to dump cases on ebay, I wouldn't be shocked if they started hitting $350-400 in a week. Supply is kicking demands ass right about now.

 

[SeattleSports]

I think we'll find out what they'll be going for in a flooded market by the end of the day. Cases started at $600 yesterday and ended around $525-550.

There are 32 cases ending today.... TODAY. That's unreal.

There are buy it nows untouched at $544, what will the 32 cases end at today?

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

If people continue to dump cases on ebay, I wouldn't be shocked if they started hitting $350-400 in a week. Supply is kicking demands ass right about now.

Hilarious and true.

 

[EricInCT]

[quote="sportscardfanatic":2vjh1w1h]
I can tell you this...if you look at most of the people on this forum upset with BC, it's not because they bought cases at $650. And if everyone else is selling at $899, all the people buying at $650 should be jumping for joy... I can guarantee that if we took a poll, most people who bought BC before today paid $750+. Anyone that paid less would be the minority and a very small percentage. $750 would be a more accurate measurement of TMV.

The current market value is $550, not $899, not $750, not $650, it's $550.

You are completely neglecting the outside influences that change the products value.

The true market value is $550, if you don't believe me ask atlanta sportscards. They have it currently listed at $899 on their website, yet they have sold a handful for $550 on ebay in the last 24 hours and they listed more today.

Trust me, I understand what you are saying. You are saying that if people go to ebay right now, they can find cases at $550. That point is clear...clear as day. But to say that's TMV is very misleading. Because I can't walk into my LCS and get that price. I can't go to any retailer and get that price. Even if I tried to buy a box off someone on this forum, I can promise you, they will not give me that price. If I was at the Expo in Toronto, I would not get that price. Because it's NOT TMV.

If I'm a retailer...and I ordered 100 cases at $400 a case and listed it at $900 per case. Then demand is low and I realize I'm going to be stuck with $40,000 worth of merchandise...so I offload cases at cost. Saves me from my money being tied up in stock and it benefits the cusomters who get an incredible discount. Even though I'm selling cases WAY below everyone else, it still doesn't make it the TMV. It's still just a discount. Because everyone else is still selling it for much more.

Anyway, this argument is going nowhere. It's clear you and I don't have the same perspective of the market. Regardless, this is way off topic from the OP. Clearly, the OP wasn't factoring in ebay either.

Going by your numbers, it's a good time to buy BC. $45 per box is a good price. How many cases have you purchased? And you should clue everyone else in on where you are finding these prices so that we can get some good breaks on this board.

Sorry I have my masters in economics and we've actually discussed a topic like this to death so I'm stuck to my perspective.

I haven't purchased a single case yet as I'm waiting for prices to drop. Last case sold for $512 a few minutes ago to a seller with 4500 feedback at 100%. Atlanta still has cases ending tonight as well. I'm waiting till it drops to $400ish to jump in, which is $33 per box.

No point buying while it declines, I'm going to wait till it hits the floor. I think it hits $400 by next week.

I think I'll ask you a question that I trust someone with a Masters to answer: What percentage of sales is enough to lable it as Market Value? See, unless you know that X% is availible through eBay, couldn't it be argued that eBay isn't a large enough "Market" to consider the fair market value? We all assume (and I think this was Andrew's point) that EVERYTHING revolves around eBay. But unless someone fiercely tracks EVERY sale of a product, we can't know what eBay has compared to anywhere else.

What if I told you that only 10% of the product was sold on eBay? Is that still market value if EVERYWHERE else is able to get 25% more than eBay (online stores, brick-and-mortar, card shows)? That's what we can't know at this point, so you can't argue definately that $550 is FMV if it's only 10% sales.

You argue that "well, if I can get it for cheaper, doesn't that mean that's the lowest and the 'actual' price?" But if the bulk of sales are above that, then it's still not value. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not how little someone "could" buy something for, it's what they DO buy something for. If the total sales are higher than eBay, then eBay is just a place to get deals, since it doesn't hold the largest part of the market.

Again, we can't really know ANY of this.

To an extent but what I'm arguing is that this is going to be a completely unique situation. My point is that in this situation the largest distributors loaded up beyond belief and because demand was miscalculated, supply is at an astronomical number. LCS's/Distributors will be forced to dump on ebay as they cannot afford to have so much capital in a particular product. When the large distributors made their orders, they were anticipating a repeat of 2010 Bowman where the stuff sold like gold so they ordered a ridiculous amount. Topps then printed said ridiculous amount and now with Strasburgs injury and the adverse effects of cranking of the print run, supply and demand are meeting below factory cost.

In a normal situation, maybe 10% of cases are listed on ebay. But I have a feeling this is going to be the perfect storm, and that % increases but with a higher print run, volume increases as well.

Here is an example, this morning there were 23 cases on ebay listed via auction which is an absurd # for any other year. After 12+ have ended today, there are now 45 cases listed. Some listings are for 2+ case lots and some are for 5 cases. I think when the average joe or an LCS dumping inventory or the large distributors start dumping cases, it will be higher than your 10% (yes I know thats not accurate, but higher than a normal year is what I'm saying) by an alarming amount and prices will tank dramatically.

Cases were selling via auction for $620 this morning, then $605, then $590, then $560, then $537 and now $512. There are 6 cases ending in the next 25 minutes, as they end more will be listed. If people continue to dump cases on ebay, I wouldn't be shocked if they started hitting $350-400 in a week. Supply is kicking demands ass right about now.[/quote:2vjh1w1h]


It doesn't take a masters in basket weaving let alone econ to know that if it hits anywhere near 400 then the opening bid on auctions with be 399-449.

 

[SportsCardMojo]

I realize you can get BC cheaper through ebay, but for those that would rather buy through a retailer, Globalsportscards has a case for $629. I think Blowout is at $750, DA $775 and Atlanta at $899. But as frzg stated, ebay has them ranging between $500-$600. I realize most of you are still waiting for the prices to hit rock bottom, but considering most pre-orders paid $800+, this is a great price. Good luck ripping everyone.

 

[ThoseBackPages]

im interested in seeing what Blowout has them for Friday evening

 

[SportsCardMojo]

im interested in seeing what Blowout has them for Friday evening

I did this 2 weeks ago. I contacted BO because Atlanta had TC for $419 and BO was still at $500. The next thing I know BO had it at $419.

If I mentioned it to BO, I bet they will adjust their price to match or come closer.

I think it will hover around $650ish for retailers going into the weekend. That's really crazy...and kind of sad. I wish I wasn't so feverishly crazy to rip stuff. I would have sat back and waited for the prices to drop before buying. But I was afraid of a price spike, so I bought in early. Oh well. 2 cases to break tonight! Hoo-rah!

 

[SeattleSports]

im interested in seeing what Blowout has them for Friday evening

I did this 2 weeks ago. I contacted BO because Atlanta had TC for $419 and BO was still at $500. The next thing I know BO had it at $419.

If I mentioned it to BO, I bet they will adjust their price to match or come closer.

I think it will hover around $650ish for retailers going into the weekend. That's really crazy...and kind of sad. I wish I wasn't so feverishly crazy to rip stuff. I would have sat back and waited for the prices to drop before buying. But I was afraid of a price spike, so I bought in early. Oh well. 2 cases to break tonight! Hoo-rah!

I think it'll be closer to $550 for retailers this weekend or lower.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Re: What is a

If you really want to buy some, PM me.. I know a guy looking to move up to 50 cases at sharpest price in the free world,... Bg

....razor sharp?

 

[SeattleSports]

First case ended at $525 dlvd,

30 more cases ending tonight!

10 more have been listed this morning.

 

[sunojorel]

First case ended at $525 dlvd,

30 more cases ending tonight!

10 more have been listed this morning.

So basicially $45 a box for that auction plus $15, s/h
Not much further to reach the $40 box plateau of $480 case on ebay.

 

[sunojorel]

$490 per case just happened on ebay 2 case lot DLVD.

 

[SeattleSports]

$490 per case just happened on ebay 2 case lot DLVD.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

$490 per case just happened on ebay 2 case lot DLVD.

When it hits $360, I'll buy in. It'll happen.

[youtube:1loa7950]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8H2FIf1oH4&p=9CCAA545D4560329&playnext=1&index=5[/youtube:1loa7950]

 

[011873]

$10 and if you act now, Ill include another box FREE (just pay seperate process and handling)

 

[UpTheAlley]

how paradoxical is it, that ebay has/is/was the final end all be all dumping grounds for all this stuff from the current constructed chain of distribution points from mfg, the very chains that claim ebay plays such a miniscule position within all areas of the market...hmmmmmmmmmm

 

[All The Hype]

Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like the auto checklist on this product is pretty strong overall, despite being somewhat large. But there aren't as many "duds" as in 2008 BC for example. Also, there are a number of pretty nice hits, even base (Chapman, Sanchez, Sano, and the rare Strasburgs to name a few).

Once the market becomes un-flooded, prices will stop dropping. But 77 results show up when I search for 2010 Bowman Chrome case. With that many listings, especially listed by auction, it will be difficult for price to settle.