What Makes for A Hyped Prospect?

[pigskincardboard]

I've had a bit of free time lately, so I've been doing some calculations on various scraped data...

Anyways, I was wondering what you think the key factors are to the price of a prospect card?

Here are some of the factors I've been considering...

1. Website Ranking Systems
2. Draft Slot
3. Signing Bonus
4. Organization
5. Path to the Majors / Organizational Strength
6. Mentions -- A pretty neat thing I've done that's probably making some servers very angry. Essentially, it's the number of times a player's been mentioned with "good" words in the same sentence versus "bad" words. No extra weight is given to a website based on it's popularity. It's a straight average for the most part.
7. Age
8. College / HS
9. Actual Statistics
10. Days since card release...

So, what do you think? I've done something like this with data before, but never at this level.

Honestly, I'd be pretty interested in y'allz opinions.

 

[Jaypers]

11. Amount of coverage on ESPN.

 

[arod305]

11. Amount of coverage on ESPN.

TOuche

 

[P_Manning 18]

12. Jaypers

 

[pigskincardboard]

11. Amount of coverage on ESPN.

I get the Canadian version of ESPN, which sorta sucks. Lots of hockey though.

Are we talking Keith Law ESPN or Joe Morgan ESPN?

Maybe that was a joke, I really don't know. I've just got time to kill and atrocious php skills.

 

[pigskincardboard]

12. Jaypers

I'm sure Chris wouldn't appreciate a script that looked through all 8000 of his posts....

 

[Jaypers]

12. Jaypers

I'm sure Chris wouldn't appreciate a script that looked through all 8000 of his posts....

No, but clearly P_Manning18 would.

 

[JEA2880]

Organization is the biggest factor for me. Maybe it's because I live in the NY market and therefore know I can clean up with NY prospects at the local shows, but anything Yankees, Mets or Red Sox is gold.

 

[pigskincardboard]

Organization is the biggest factor for me. Maybe it's because I live in the NY market and therefore know I can clean up with NY prospects at the local shows, but anything Yankees, Mets or Red Sox is gold.

That appears to be true for the top and bottom prospects, middle ones -- not so much.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Since the word hype is defined as the following, I'd definitely go with your point #6.

–verb (used with object) 1. to stimulate, excite, or agitate (usually fol. by up): She was hyped up at the thought of owning her own car.
2. to create interest in by flamboyant or dramatic methods; promote or publicize showily: a promoter who knows how to hype a prizefight.
3. to intensify (advertising, promotion, or publicity) by ingenious or questionable claims, methods, etc. (usually fol. by up).
4. to trick; gull.

–noun 5. exaggerated publicity; hoopla.
6. an ingenious or questionable claim, method, etc., used in advertising, promotion, or publicity to intensify the effect.
7. a swindle, deception, or trick.

I've had a bit of free time lately, so I've been doing some calculations on various scraped data...

Anyways, I was wondering what you think the key factors are to the price of a prospect card?

Here are some of the factors I've been considering...

1. Website Ranking Systems
2. Draft Slot
3. Signing Bonus
4. Organization
5. Path to the Majors / Organizational Strength
6. Mentions -- A pretty neat thing I've done that's probably making some servers very angry. Essentially, it's the number of times a player's been mentioned with "good" words in the same sentence versus "bad" words. No extra weight is given to a website based on it's popularity. It's a straight average for the most part.
7. Age
8. College / HS
9. Actual Statistics
10. Days since card release...

So, what do you think? I've done something like this with data before, but never at this level.

Honestly, I'd be pretty interested in y'allz opinions.

 

[Wes]

Ethnicity and looks are a huge and mostly ignored factor.

 

[bballcardkid]

If a player is proficient at #1 and #9, there will be hype.

 

[MallCopKJ]

I think the number one thing is comparisons. When you hear "he looks like the next Ken Griffey Jr." or "he looks like a young Nolan Ryan" you pay extra attention. I think HUGE hype is reached when the guy is hot, turns some heads, then on ESPN they draw the comparison between a superstar like Griffey to the player.

 

[kentuckyderby]

Ethnicity and looks are a huge and mostly ignored factor.

Guess that explains why I never stocked up on any Otis Nixon cards

 

[bodiaz]

How hard a pitcher can throw generates tons of hype! (see Zumaya) Tape measure home runs generate hype for hitters. (see Joey Meyer, Bryce Harper)

 

[ThoseBackPages]

FCB

 

[pigskincardboard]

I think the number one thing is comparisons. When you hear "he looks like the next Ken Griffey Jr." or "he looks like a young Nolan Ryan" you pay extra attention. I think HUGE hype is reached when the guy is hot, turns some heads, then on ESPN they draw the comparison between a superstar like Griffey to the player.

I was going to mention this because Borchering's been getting some serious "Chipper Jones" hype.

Ethnicity and looks are a huge and mostly ignored factor.

I've brought this up before, but I completely agree. It's far less of a factor in baseball than it is in football / basketball, but ethnicity is definitely a strange beast.

 

[sheetskout]

11. Amount of coverage on ESPN.

Exactly. Hype is nothing more than media coverage. They should be synonymous.

 

[jbhofmann]

I'm trying to understand what ethnicity has to do with it?

Griffey
Harper
Dice-K
El Duque

All different ethnicities all hype

 

[gt2590]

Media coverage helps of course, but the NY or BOS team names really can add to a price, and usually it doesn't matter how talented the prospect really is.

Plus, because prices and salaries are higher in those areas, they have more $$$ to spend than most of the rest of the country. $15 in NY=$12 in Philly=$10 in Cleveland=$8 in the Dakotas, that sort of thing. Heck, parking in NY might set you back a Gold Ref auto every week.