When will Lincecum cards really take off?

[matfanofold]

I'm sorry, I'm a Lincecum fan just as any other non-darocker person. But he'll never reach Pujols prices....EVER. Simply fact b/c he's a pitcher.

What has he done that Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, or Roy Halladay haven't done over a 3 year stretch?

If he puts up an ungodly year (I'm talking 25-2 sub 2 ERA) like he has been his first 4 games, we may see a HUGE spike. But even going 20-5 with 2.00 ERA and winning his 3rd Cy Young (which he won't win) MIGHT give you a 10% increase in prices only to come back down when he has ONE mediocre year.

Dominant pitchers will never ever reach the prices of dominant hitters.

No one on that list even compares to the start to the type of career Lincy is having. It tooke everyone on that list 5, 6, 7 years to produce like Lincy is out of the box. The difference is night and day.

 

[AKA Coastal]

I'm not sure if a pitcher can reach "pujols levels". Pitchers tend to fall off a little faster and are a bit more injury prone than a hitter. Not to mention it's taken Pujols 6-8 years of total dominance to reach the levels he at. Lincecum has only been doing it for a few years.

Well, back in the early to mid 90's, Clemens and Ryan collectors would disagree. Point being, I see no reason that this hobby would not put a pitcher as iconic as a batter. They have many times before.

Your question wasn't is he going to be as iconic. You asked if his cards could reach Pujols levels.

 

[matfanofold]

You can't predict Cy Youngs or MVPs. You just can't. So to say Lincecum could possibly have 5 CY in 10 years is preposterous.

It is amazing to me that Pujols only has three MVP's entering his 10th year of pro baseball. He could easily have 9 of them.

Arguably, Lincecum could have ZERO Cy Youngs (although I agree with his first one over Webb, last year my nod would've went to Wainwright with Lincy second).

150/50 (w/l) - ~2500 K's - a 2.80 +/- era and 5 CY awards, maybe then people will start to really shell out?

Please do not quote me out of context.

My point was being made of 'what if' stats, asking "is this what it will take?" Not making a prediction.

 

[markakis8]

Okay what about Roger Clemens, Doc Gooden, Fernando Valenzeula, or Kerry Wood? They arguably had just as good of stats as Lincecum, if not better.

Don't get me wrong, I love Lincecum. Him and Halladay are neck and neck for best pitcher in the MLB. But history tells us pitchers will never achieve the hobby status that hitters can.

I'm sorry, I'm a Lincecum fan just as any other non-darocker person. But he'll never reach Pujols prices....EVER. Simply fact b/c he's a pitcher.

What has he done that Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, or Roy Halladay haven't done over a 3 year stretch?

If he puts up an ungodly year (I'm talking 25-2 sub 2 ERA) like he has been his first 4 games, we may see a HUGE spike. But even going 20-5 with 2.00 ERA and winning his 3rd Cy Young (which he won't win) MIGHT give you a 10% increase in prices only to come back down when he has ONE mediocre year.

Dominant pitchers will never ever reach the prices of dominant hitters.

No one on that list even compares to the start to the type of career Lincy is having. It tooke everyone on that list 5, 6, 7 years to produce like Lincy is out of the box. The difference is night and day.

 

[matfanofold]

[quote="AKA Coastal":ba2a2pss]I'm not sure if a pitcher can reach "pujols levels". Pitchers tend to fall off a little faster and are a bit more injury prone than a hitter. Not to mention it's taken Pujols 6-8 years of total dominance to reach the levels he at. Lincecum has only been doing it for a few years.

Well, back in the early to mid 90's, Clemens and Ryan collectors would disagree. Point being, I see no reason that this hobby would not put a pitcher as iconic as a batter. They have many times before.

Your question wasn't is he going to be as iconic. You asked if his cards could reach Pujols levels.[/quote:ba2a2pss]

That I did, but I just assumed that everyone agrees that earning Iconic status via performance parallels value.

 

[matfanofold]

Okay what about Roger Clemens, Doc Gooden, Fernando Valenzeula, or Kerry Wood? They arguably had just as good of stats as Lincecum, if not better.

Don't get me wrong, I love Lincecum. Him and Halladay are neck and neck for best pitcher in the MLB. But history tells us pitchers will never achieve the hobby status that hitters can.

I'm sorry, I'm a Lincecum fan just as any other non-darocker person. But he'll never reach Pujols prices....EVER. Simply fact b/c he's a pitcher.

What has he done that Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, or Roy Halladay haven't done over a 3 year stretch?

If he puts up an ungodly year (I'm talking 25-2 sub 2 ERA) like he has been his first 4 games, we may see a HUGE spike. But even going 20-5 with 2.00 ERA and winning his 3rd Cy Young (which he won't win) MIGHT give you a 10% increase in prices only to come back down when he has ONE mediocre year.

Dominant pitchers will never ever reach the prices of dominant hitters.

No one on that list even compares to the start to the type of career Lincy is having. It tooke everyone on that list 5, 6, 7 years to produce like Lincy is out of the box. The difference is night and day.

Kerry Wood? Um, no....

Fernando? Times were to different back than hobby wise.

Doc, and Clemens? Now we are getting close, but do you remember the hobby status and value respectively to their RC cards in the late 80's? If so, you would see that these 2 add substance to my point, not detract from it.

 

[Codasco07]

Another reason why Pujols' are much more expensive are the rarity. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but only a handful of his BC Autos were actually redeemed. So while Lincecum has about 1000 base chrome auto, 500 Refractor Auto, and so on with all the parallels. Pujols' BC Autos are probably only around 250 redeemed, supply is so low compared to the Lincecum's. Also the fact that the Pujols BC have been known to be trimmed, adds to the low amount of true unaltered BC Auto Cards.

That is not the common belief. The Pujols redemption was no secret in 2001, and it is my belief that well over 400-450 of them were redemed.

Then there's the whole theory that Topps probably back-doored the remaining ones into the market even though the official word is that all unclaimed copies were destroyed. Nobody really believes that.

Even so, what % of Pujols chromes are potentially available vs. Lincecums? DO you think the PC % of a card varies per player or is fairly constant across all cards?

 

[bradical]

However, if you must, try and compare apples to apples atleast. Lets not forget it was Pujols who made his BC RC iconic, not the other way around. Why has not the Lincy Blue RC auto become iconic yet? Understand?

Well to compare apples to apples, what was the price of the Pujols Chrome Auto in 2004? Pujols have been a dominant player for 9 years now. Lincecum, only 3. Maybe in another 6 years, if Lincecum continues to put up these numbers, he will surpass what Pujols's prices are today.

 

[matfanofold]

However, if you must, try and compare apples to apples atleast. Lets not forget it was Pujols who made his BC RC iconic, not the other way around. Why has not the Lincy Blue RC auto become iconic yet? Understand?

Well to compare apples to apples, what was the price of the Pujols Chrome Auto in 2004? Pujols have been a dominant player for 9 years now. Lincecum, only 3. Maybe in another 6 years, if Lincecum continues to put up these numbers, he will surpass what Pujols's prices are today.

But Pujols prices have been at this level for years! However, atleast we are getting to the nitty gritty of the original topic. Can we agree than another 3 years of Lincy type quality will start to see the value of his cards equate? However, comparing Lincy prices now to Pujols 04' prices should be a valid comparison.

 

[200lbhockeyplayer]

I actually think that there is an underlying belief that Lincecum's body will flame out before he hits the required time for HOF induction.

I don't want it to happen, not in the slightest, but I've been extremely hesitant holding onto anything Lincecum...especially for the long haul.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I'm sorry, I'm a Lincecum fan just as any other non-darocker person. But he'll never reach Pujols prices....EVER. Simply fact b/c he's a pitcher.

What has he done that Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, or Roy Halladay haven't done over a 3 year stretch?

If he puts up an ungodly year (I'm talking 25-2 sub 2 ERA) like he has been his first 4 games, we may see a HUGE spike. But even going 20-5 with 2.00 ERA and winning his 3rd Cy Young (which he won't win) MIGHT give you a 10% increase in prices only to come back down when he has ONE mediocre year.

Dominant pitchers will never ever reach the prices of dominant hitters.

No one on that list even compares to the start to the type of career Lincy is having. It tooke everyone on that list 5, 6, 7 years to produce like Lincy is out of the box. The difference is night and day.

Agree. I think people are missing this. The reality is that Lincecum has started his career in a way only a couple have ever done before (Gooden is the only example I can think of off the top of my head.)

The OP is simply asking how much more greatness is required before we'd put Lincecum on a pedestal. I don't think he is guaranteeing that he will perform that way, but asking the question.

IMO if he can go 2-3 more years, win another Cy Young award or two, keep his ERA at 2.50 or so and K 250 we could see $400-$500 Bowman Chrome Auto's despite the abundance of Lincecum RC Auto's. At this point people still group him with players like CC, Halladay etc. If he can do that for a few more years he'll reach a point where people have to look from a historic perspective.

People have to realize that it's insanely rare for anyone to have so much success so early and the scary thing is that he's still approaching the age when most players hit their prime.

 

[matfanofold]

I actually think that there is an underlying belief that Lincecum's body will flame out before he hits the required time for HOF induction.

I don't want it to happen, not in the slightest, but I've been extremely hesitant holding onto anything Lincecum...especially for the long haul.

Yeah, it's hard not to think that when you see just how hard he thrusts his entire body when throwing. But do you think thats a factor in his current value?

 

[markakis8]

What are we talking about here? You are asking why Lincecum prices haven't shot through the roof like Pujols base RC's did after a couple dominant seasons.

What did Fernando and Kerry do their first couple seasons? They were flat out dominant. Do you not remember Fernando-mania or Kerry's 20 K game (arguably the best-pitched game of ALL TIME)? Or are you not old enough (this isnt sarcastic, I honestly don't know how old you are and if you didn't witness these two pitchers their first couple years, I would understand your ignorance).

Clemens and Doc Gooden continued their dominance longer than the other two, sure, Clemens putting up ridiculous HOF numbers....but they still never reached Pujols in terms of hobby status.

But assuming you are such a Doc Gooden fan, you should know, that flat-out dominance from a pitcher WILL NOT achieve the same hobby pinnacle as a hitter.

No one on that list even compares to the start to the type of career Lincy is having. It tooke everyone on that list 5, 6, 7 years to produce like Lincy is out of the box. The difference is night and day.

[/quote]


Kerry Wood? Um, no....

Fernando? Times were to different back than hobby wise.

Doc, and Clemens? Now we are getting close, but do you remember the hobby status and value respectively to their RC cards in the late 80's? If so, you would see that these 2 add substance to my point, not detract from it.[/quote]

 

[matfanofold]

I'm sorry, I'm a Lincecum fan just as any other non-darocker person. But he'll never reach Pujols prices....EVER. Simply fact b/c he's a pitcher.

What has he done that Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, or Roy Halladay haven't done over a 3 year stretch?

If he puts up an ungodly year (I'm talking 25-2 sub 2 ERA) like he has been his first 4 games, we may see a HUGE spike. But even going 20-5 with 2.00 ERA and winning his 3rd Cy Young (which he won't win) MIGHT give you a 10% increase in prices only to come back down when he has ONE mediocre year.

Dominant pitchers will never ever reach the prices of dominant hitters.

No one on that list even compares to the start to the type of career Lincy is having. It tooke everyone on that list 5, 6, 7 years to produce like Lincy is out of the box. The difference is night and day.

Agree. I think people are missing this. The reality is that Lincecum has started his career in a way only a couple have ever done before (Gooden is the only example I can think of off the top of my head.)

The OP is simply asking how much more greatness is required before we'd put Lincecum on a pedestal. I don't think he is guaranteeing that he will perform that way, but asking the question.

IMO if he can go 2-3 more years, win another Cy Young award or two, keep his ERA at 2.50 or so and K 250 we could see $400-$500 Bowman Chrome Auto's despite the abundance of Lincecum RC Auto's. At this point people still group him with players like CC, Halladay etc. If he can do that for a few more years he'll reach a point where people have to look from a historic perspective.

People have to realize that it's insanely rare for anyone to have so much success so early and the scary thing is that he's still approaching the age when most players hit their prime.

You sir have been thanked!

 

[matfanofold]

What are we talking about here? You are asking why Lincecum prices haven't shot through the roof like Pujols base RC's did after a couple dominant seasons.

What did Fernando and Kerry do their first couple seasons? They were flat out dominant. Do you not remember Fernando-mania or Kerry's 20 K game (arguably the best-pitched game of ALL TIME)? Or are you not old enough (this isnt sarcastic, I honestly don't know how old you are and if you didn't witness these two pitchers their first couple years, I would understand your ignorance).

Clemens and Doc Gooden continued their dominance longer than the other two, sure, Clemens putting up ridiculous HOF numbers....but they still never reached Pujols in terms of hobby status.

But assuming you are such a Doc Gooden fan, you should know, that flat-out dominance from a pitcher WILL NOT achieve the same hobby pinnacle as a hitter.

I do not like to throw the word ignorant aroung too much but....


I already said Fernando happened at a time when $1 was a lot for a RC, and in the early 80's he was the talk of the town but the comparison is just not valid due to the MASSIVE difference in the hobby now compared to then. No fruitful comparison can be made except for the fact that a pitcher can be iconic like he was, which only supports my reasoning(s). Second...

Here -- > http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ke02.shtml

Is a link to Kerry Woods career stat lines. Please point out to me even one year out of them all that matches any one of Lincey's. Just one? There is no comparison here. Wood was a one hit(game) wonder flash in the pan. Lincy has been a pinnacle of dominant consistancy since his day 1. And as for age, I have been active in this hobby as an adult probablly since before you could chew gum.

 

[darocker80]

Now, I know some of his cards can be pricey right now, but considering just how dominant this kid is, why has his cards not been given the Pujols treatment yet? I'm talking like base RC cards hitting $50, base auto RC cards hitting $500 - $1000? Anyone who watches baseball can put up little argument that he has been the most consistantly dominant pitcher since he entered MLB. And you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant begining to anyones pitching career ever. And one thing I know is that once a player reaches a level of dominance, certing variables like team, WS rings, ect.. do not matter anymore like they can with mots cases. So, my real question is...

How many more years of CY type dominance does this kid need to throw to start to distance himself from mere greatness towards Pujols type reverence?

if his cards haven't taken off the last few years, what makes you believe they're going to go up in a few years?

Thats a good question, and one that this thread is directly asking! Why havent they taken off like that yet? Personally I believe they will. Maybe after 10 years in the bigs with stats like..

150/50 (w/l) - ~2500 K's - a 2.80 +/- era and 5 CY awards, maybe then people will start to really shell out?

that'd be amazing!

 

[matfanofold]

Now, I know some of his cards can be pricey right now, but considering just how dominant this kid is, why has his cards not been given the Pujols treatment yet? I'm talking like base RC cards hitting $50, base auto RC cards hitting $500 - $1000? Anyone who watches baseball can put up little argument that he has been the most consistantly dominant pitcher since he entered MLB. And you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant begining to anyones pitching career ever. And one thing I know is that once a player reaches a level of dominance, certing variables like team, WS rings, ect.. do not matter anymore like they can with mots cases. So, my real question is...

How many more years of CY type dominance does this kid need to throw to start to distance himself from mere greatness towards Pujols type reverence?

if his cards haven't taken off the last few years, what makes you believe they're going to go up in a few years?

Thats a good question, and one that this thread is directly asking! Why havent they taken off like that yet? Personally I believe they will. Maybe after 10 years in the bigs with stats like..

150/50 (w/l) - ~2500 K's - a 2.80 +/- era and 5 CY awards, maybe then people will start to really shell out?

that'd be amazing!

Yes, it would be! But I'm starting to think that is what it will take to see this kid put in a place he deserves to be.

By the way, I've always loved your collection!

 

[markakis8]

Ok well then we will agree to disagree. B/c right now I do not see the MAJOR difference between Tim's and Kerry Wood's career beginning - besides the two Cy Youngs of course and both are extremely debatable. Neither was a no-doubter decision.

Lincecum has two dominant seasons under his belt, and yes, he's heading towards a third.

This will be my last post b/c either I'm not being clear or you are not willing to understand what I'm saying (and it could be either)

My point is, take away the two Cy Youngs, there have been a handful of pitchers...probably a dozen...that have started their careers juts as dominant as Lincecum. Some CONTINUED that dominance. Others didn't. But it doesn't matter. They won't/never did achieve the HOBBY status of a Pujols. Ever.

I do not like to throw the word ignorant aroung too much but....


I already said Fernando happened at a time when $1 was a lot for a RC, and in the early 80's he was the talk of the town but the comparison is just not valid due to the MASSIVE difference in the hobby now compared to then. No fruitful comparison can be made except for the fact that a pitcher can be iconic like he was, which only supports my reasoning(s). Second...

Here -- > http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ke02.shtml

Is a link to Kerry Woods career stat lines. Please point out to me even one year out of them all that matches any one of Lincey's. Just one? There is no comparison here. Wood was a one hit(game) wonder flash in the pan. Lincy has been a pinnacle of dominant consistancy since his day 1. And as for age, I have been active in this hobby as an adult probablly since before you could chew gum.

 

[matfanofold]

Ok well then we will agree to disagree. B/c right now I do not see the MAJOR difference between Tim's and Kerry Wood's career beginning - besides the two Cy Youngs of course and both are extremely debatable. Neither was a no-doubter decision.

Lincecum has two dominant seasons under his belt, and yes, he's heading towards a third.

This will be my last post b/c either I'm not being clear or you are not willing to understand what I'm saying (and it could be either)

My point is, take away the two Cy Youngs, there have been a handful of pitchers...probably a dozen...that have started their careers juts as dominant as Lincecum. Some CONTINUED that dominance. Others didn't. But it doesn't matter. They won't/never did achieve the HOBBY status of a Pujols. Ever.

I do not like to throw the word ignorant aroung too much but....


I already said Fernando happened at a time when $1 was a lot for a RC, and in the early 80's he was the talk of the town but the comparison is just not valid due to the MASSIVE difference in the hobby now compared to then. No fruitful comparison can be made except for the fact that a pitcher can be iconic like he was, which only supports my reasoning(s). Second...

Here -- > http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ke02.shtml

Is a link to Kerry Woods career stat lines. Please point out to me even one year out of them all that matches any one of Lincey's. Just one? There is no comparison here. Wood was a one hit(game) wonder flash in the pan. Lincy has been a pinnacle of dominant consistancy since his day 1. And as for age, I have been active in this hobby as an adult probablly since before you could chew gum.

Ok, we will agree to disagree. And I'm not trying to negate the validity of your opinion, I just get passionate sometimes about my own. Good stuff, good discussion!

 

[darocker80]

Now, I know some of his cards can be pricey right now, but considering just how dominant this kid is, why has his cards not been given the Pujols treatment yet? I'm talking like base RC cards hitting $50, base auto RC cards hitting $500 - $1000? Anyone who watches baseball can put up little argument that he has been the most consistantly dominant pitcher since he entered MLB. And you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant begining to anyones pitching career ever. And one thing I know is that once a player reaches a level of dominance, certing variables like team, WS rings, ect.. do not matter anymore like they can with mots cases. So, my real question is...

How many more years of CY type dominance does this kid need to throw to start to distance himself from mere greatness towards Pujols type reverence?

if his cards haven't taken off the last few years, what makes you believe they're going to go up in a few years?

Thats a good question, and one that this thread is directly asking! Why havent they taken off like that yet? Personally I believe they will. Maybe after 10 years in the bigs with stats like..

150/50 (w/l) - ~2500 K's - a 2.80 +/- era and 5 CY awards, maybe then people will start to really shell out?

that'd be amazing!

Yes, it would be! But I'm starting to think that is what it will take to see this kid put in a place he deserves to be.

By the way, I've always loved your collection!

Thank you. I have always admired yours as well. Lincecum is similar to Gooden imo haha.

And i really hope he can win a couple more cy youngs and become the pujols of pitchers.

and markakis. kerry wood has never put up a cy young caliber season.