Which card to buy...Prospecting Decisions

[masonphillip]

We all debate frequently not only which prospect to buy but also which card of a specific prospect to buy.

It seems the debate is ongoing and never-ending as variables are added and constantly changed.

I thought I'd try taking a look at one specific example, Jason Heyward.

I wrote up an analysis of his sales at release, as compared to now in my blog:

http://pennysleeves.com/2010/02/jason-heyward-sales-a-case-study/

Let me know what you think!

 

[bmoore997]

Excellent information. Post thanked.

 

[masonphillip]

Excellent information. Post thanked.

Thanks I'm glad you liked it!

Obviously, with a guy as hot as Heyward is, any card of his would afford one an opportunity to make a flip.

We'll have to see if the same holds true of other prospects (as I look for another subject to run the analysis on).

 

[Messier2]

Good Stuff!

Speaking of Heyward, how is the market for his AFLAC auto? I haven't seen many being listed even though he is hot...are people holding for higher returns or is the market spotlight not shining on that card?

 

[bmoore997]

Good Stuff!

Speaking of Heyward, how is the market for his AFLAC auto? I haven't seen many being listed even though he is hot...are people holding for higher returns or is the market spotlight not shining on that card?

En fuego
http://cgi.ebay.com/2008-bowman-afl...US_Baseball?hash=item255894e688#ht_500wt_1182

 

[Messier2]

Good Stuff!

Speaking of Heyward, how is the market for his AFLAC auto? I haven't seen many being listed even though he is hot...are people holding for higher returns or is the market spotlight not shining on that card?

En fuego
http://cgi.ebay.com/2008-bowman-afl...US_Baseball?hash=item255894e688#ht_500wt_1182

Damn! I guess I missed that auction!

Should I sell mine? Wow, I was thinking of holding it but damn! lol

 

[masonphillip]

Good Stuff!

Speaking of Heyward, how is the market for his AFLAC auto? I haven't seen many being listed even though he is hot...are people holding for higher returns or is the market spotlight not shining on that card?

En fuego
http://cgi.ebay.com/2008-bowman-afl...US_Baseball?hash=item255894e688#ht_500wt_1182

Yeah, at that price and with a flood of autos coming once he makes the majors (see Porcello, Bruce, Votto, Longoria and so forth) it is time to sell!

Good Stuff!

Speaking of Heyward, how is the market for his AFLAC auto? I haven't seen many being listed even though he is hot...are people holding for higher returns or is the market spotlight not shining on that card?

He wasn't included in my original analysis because this card was released so much later.

That being said, I think some of the AFLACs sold for near $300 when 2008 BDP dropped. However, I'm fairly sure last year they fell out of favor at some point in time last year and were available for under $100 for a while.

So this was clearly a card to sell at release and then buy back some time later. I still hate how O/C those stupid things are.

 

[All The Hype]

Great post, very interesting to see the movement.

 

[leatherman]

"This is why grading makes sense. Lets say I bought a Hewyard Base Sterling Auto for $35, sent it through the FCB sub for $8 and received a BGS 9.5. I can now sell my 9.5 for $98 and I have $43 total into it, a return of 128%."

This is what is called a no brainer.

 

[masonphillip]

"This is why grading makes sense. Lets say I bought a Hewyard Base Sterling Auto for $35, sent it through the FCB sub for $8 and received a BGS 9.5. I can now sell my 9.5 for $98 and I have $43 total into it, a return of 128%."

This is what is called a no brainer.

Absolutely....it also illustrates that there are many out there without brains.

 

[ruffryder98499]

Sweet write up!!

 

[pigskincardboard]

It seems like so many things can go wrong in the grading process -- Maybe some members can throw something in that I'm missing.

You first see a card, and try your best to judge based on the scan. Card looks great.

Now, we could be dealing with an 8 that scanned well.. or a 9.5 that becomes an 8 in the mail.. anything really.

Do you just not submit those cards and resell them raw? Do you post decent pictures of the card showing it's flaws or do you sorta pull the "someone did it to me, so I'm going to do it to someone else"

It seems like raw with potential sells for around the price of 8.5 or 9?

How many different opportunities do you have to make your 8 dollars plus initial investment back?

What percentage of cards arrive to you in less than noticable 9.5 condition?

thanks.

 

[EricInCT]

"This is why grading makes sense. Lets say I bought a Hewyard Base Sterling Auto for $35, sent it through the FCB sub for $8 and received a BGS 9.5. I can now sell my 9.5 for $98 and I have $43 total into it, a return of 128%."

This is what is called a no brainer.

Of course the pessimist will say if you sent in 10 of those sterlings to beckett and only 6 of the 10 gemmed you wasted 40 bucks of your profit. 60% is high.

 

[cgilmo]

I am holding an aflac as my heyward pc card

 

[masonphillip]

"This is why grading makes sense. Lets say I bought a Hewyard Base Sterling Auto for $35, sent it through the FCB sub for $8 and received a BGS 9.5. I can now sell my 9.5 for $98 and I have $43 total into it, a return of 128%."

This is what is called a no brainer.

Of course the pessimist will say if you sent in 10 of those sterlings to beckett and only 6 of the 10 gemmed you wasted 40 bucks of your profit. 60% is high.

Actually, 60% isn't high on the 2007 Sterlings. Those were VERY easy grades. In fact, were you to grade 10, you might have a good shot at a BGS 10:

http://www.beckett.com/grading/popr...xtSetName=2007+sterling&txtPlayerName=heyward


But your point is valid, sending 10 cards with 10 autos through the FCB sub all inclusive costs would be just about $80. So if you received 6 9.5s or better, your cost per 9.5 would be $13.33.

So you could revise what was said about to a total investment of 48.33 and a sale of $98, or a return of 103%, still tops on the list. Of course, if you received a BGS 10 in your sub all is out the window.

 

[masonphillip]

It seems like so many things can go wrong in the grading process -- Maybe some members can throw something in that I'm missing.

You first see a card, and try your best to judge based on the scan. Card looks great.

Now, we could be dealing with an 8 that scanned well.. or a 9.5 that becomes an 8 in the mail.. anything really.

Do you just not submit those cards and resell them raw? Do you post decent pictures of the card showing it's flaws or do you sorta pull the "someone did it to me, so I'm going to do it to someone else"

I always post a very nice scan and say "see scan for condition questions then ask me, I don't lie to anyone if they ask "what would this grade?" I give them a guess and say its my best guess. I've guessed BGS 9 plenty of times. They can do their own research and see that I sell both slabbed and raw cards and draw conclusions.

It seems like raw with potential sells for around the price of 8.5 or 9?

That seems about right, the only things that garner premiums are BGS 9.5s or BGS 10s.

How many different opportunities do you have to make your 8 dollars plus initial investment back?

Not sure what you are asking here.

What percentage of cards arrive to you in less than noticable 9.5 condition?

I use pics on eBay as much as possible to help me, I'd venture the following guesses: Chromes - 33%, Sterling 15-20%, Elite 67%. You can eliminate centering questions using scans, as well as xfractor lines. Most other condition issues you cannot determine until the card is in hand.

thanks.

Responses in bold italics above.

 

[Messier2]

Well, I was going to wait until ST started but might as well list the my Heyward AFLAC...if anyone is interested before I post it, let me know!

 

[masonphillip]

Well, I was going to wait until ST started but might as well list the my Heyward AFLAC...if anyone is interested before I post it, let me know!

I would agree....time to sell.

 

[brouthercard]

If you replace Jay Bruce or Alex Gordon with Jason Heyward, it would be the same thing. Sell now or at least within the next month or two.

This happens year after year after year. If you are a true Heyward fan, wait a couple years, just look at what Bruce and Gordon is selling for nowadays.

I don't want to hear any whiners say "but wait, Heyward is the next Pujols". Virtually all the previous number one prospects have been the next Pujols. Stop whining.

Prospectors, if you can make a profit, then sell.

 

[masonphillip]

If you replace Jay Bruce or Alex Gordon with Jason Heyward, it would be the same thing. Sell now or at least within the next month or two.

This happens year after year after year. If you are a true Heyward fan, wait a couple years, just look at what Bruce and Gordon is selling for nowadays.

I don't want to hear any whiners say "but wait, Heyward is the next Pujols". Virtually all the previous number one prospects have been the next Pujols. Stop whining.

Prospectors, if you can make a profit, then sell.

You might throw Montero into this bucket as well this year.