Who will be the NFL HOF Class of 2012?

[rexvos]

Modern era candidates are as follows:

The complete list of 26 modern-era semifinalists of which 5 will be picked:

Steve Atwater, S -- 1989-1998 Denver Broncos, 1999 New York Jets
Jerome Bettis, RB -- 1993-95 Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams, 1996-2005 Pittsburgh Steelers
Tim Brown, WR/KR -- 1988-2003 Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders, 2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cris Carter, WR -- 1987-89 Philadelphia Eagles, 1990-2001 Minnesota Vikings, 2002 Miami Dolphins
Don Coryell, Coach -- 1973-77 St. Louis Cardinals, 1978-1986 San Diego Chargers
Roger Craig, RB -- 1983-1990 San Francisco 49ers, 1991 Los Angeles Raiders, 1992-93 Minnesota Vikings
Terrell Davis, RB -- 1995-2001 Denver Broncos
Dermontti Dawson, C -- 1988-2000 Pittsburgh Steelers
Edward DeBartolo, Jr., Owner -- 1979-2000 San Francisco 49ers
Chris Doleman, DE/LB -- 1985-1993, 1999 Minnesota Vikings, 1994-95 Atlanta Falcons, 1996-98 San Francisco 49ers
Kevin Greene, LB/DE -- 1985-1992 Los Angeles Rams, 1993-95 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1996, 1998-99 Carolina Panthers, 1997 San Francisco 49ers
Charles Haley, DE/LB -- 1986-1991, 1999 San Francisco 49ers, 1992-96 Dallas Cowboys
Cortez Kennedy, DT -- 1990-2000 Seattle Seahawks
Curtis Martin, RB -- 1995-97 New England Patriots, 1998-2005 New York Jets
Clay Matthews, LB -- 1978-1993 Cleveland Browns, 1994-96 Atlanta Falcons
Karl Mecklenburg, LB -- 1983-1994 Denver Broncos
Bill Parcells, Coach -- 1983-1990 New York Giants, 1993-96 New England Patriots, 1997-99 New York Jets, 2003-06 Dallas Cowboys
Andre Reed, WR -- 1985-1999 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Washington Redskins
Willie Roaf, T -- 1993-2001 New Orleans Saints, 2002-05 Kansas City Chiefs
Donnie Shell, S -- 1974-1987 Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Shields, G -- 1993-2006 Kansas City Chiefs
Paul Tagliabue, Commissioner -- 1989-2006 National Football League
Steve Tasker, ST/WR -- 1985-86 Houston Oilers, 1986-1997 Buffalo Bills
Aeneas Williams, CB/S -- 1991-2000 Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals, 2001-04 St. Louis Rams
Ron Wolf, Contributor -- 1963-1974, 1978-1990 Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders, 1975-77 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1990 New York Jets, 1991-2001 Green Bay Packers
George Young, Contributor -- 1968-1974 Baltimore Colts, 1975-78 Miami Dolphins, 1979-1997 New York Giants, 1998-2001 National Football League

Dick Stanfel and Jack Butler are the 2 Senior Candidates

I hear there is a lot of buzz around Parcells, I would like to see 5 actual players get in though.

Here is who I would like to see get in of the modern candidates:

Willie Roaf
Cris Carter
Charles Haley
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis

Here is who I think will get in:

Bill Parcells
Cortez Kennedy
Andre Reed
Curtis Martin
Willie Roaf

anyone else have any thoughts on this?

 

[bigmick33]

I hope..

Cris Carter
Jerome Bettis
Curtis Martin
Bill Parcells
Paul Tagliabue or Willie Roaf

 

[Rocketman12]

The 15 Modern Era Finalists are:

Bettis
Brown
Carter
Dawson
DeBartolo
Doleman
Greene
Haley
Kennedy
Martin
Parcells
Reed
Roaf
Shields
Williams

I would vote for any of them except DeBartolo and Cris Carter.

 

[Zeeck]

Andre Reed's been waiting the longest of the wide receivers, so I think he's in, though I believe Carter or Brown are more deserving. I see Parcells and Martin as well. I thought Bettis' best chance was when the Steelers won the Super Bowl. Then it'll be either Shields or Roaf (think both should get in, but there likely won't be two OL). I have no clue as to who might be the fifth, so I'll just throw Cortez Kennedy in there, though I'd much rather see Shield/Roaf or Dawson go.

 

[bigmick33]

The 15 Modern Era Finalists are:

Bettis
Brown
Carter
Dawson
DeBartolo
Doleman
Greene
Haley
Kennedy
Martin
Parcells
Reed
Roaf
Shields
Williams

I would vote for any of them except DeBartolo and Cris Carter.

just wondering...why not Cris Carter?...he is/was #2 in almost every stat category as a WR

 

[SeattlefantillIdie]

Personally, as a Hawks fan, I would like to see Cortez Kennedy in!
I think Bettis is a first round HOF'er. And yeah, to win a super bowl and then retire is a good way to go out!
Honestly, I'm not sure about any of the others. Bettis is really the only lock I see, IMO

 

[Rocketman12]

just wondering...why not Cris Carter?...he is/was #2 in almost every stat category as a WR

I think that Carter's career totals and the fact that he was a Chris Berman favorite make him seem better than he really was. If you look at his career year-by-year, he was really only one of the top receivers in the league in 1994 and 1995. He only led his own team in receiving yards 5 times in 16 seasons, and never finished in the top 5 in the NFL in receiving yards in any season.

Wide receivers are more dependent on offensive system and the strength of their overall offense for their production than any other position. Carter's teams were some of the most pass-heavy in the league, and his stats -- especially his touchdowns -- were inflated by that. There's no question Carter benefited greatly from playing on the other side of Moss from 1998-2001. I prefer the guys who played on more balanced offenses but accounted for higher percentages of their team's passing production -- like Irvin, Tim Brown, and Jimmy Smith.

Carter also started a huge number of games (209). If Sterling Sharpe (112), Herman Moore (123), or Smith (150) had been able to play another 3-5 seasons, people would remember them as being better than Carter because on a per-game and per-season basis they were. However, Carter's years of 30-50 catches and 600-800 yards make him seem like a legend, when in fact he played large portions of his career at league-average level.

 

[rexvos]

Personally, as a Hawks fan, I would like to see Cortez Kennedy in!
I think Bettis is a first round HOF'er. And yeah, to win a super bowl and then retire is a good way to go out!
Honestly, I'm not sure about any of the others. Bettis is really the only lock I see, IMO

I am a Bettis fan but really disagree with this.

I also forgot to pare the list down to 15 ::facepalm::

I thought Roaf should have been a first ballot lock. I think all non players should go in separately and should not detract from the 5 modern era selections. Bettis is far from a lock because he did not make the final cut to 10 last year where Reed, Kennedy, Martin and Roaf did. For that fact neither did Cris Carter.

I think the closest thing to a lock this year is Curtis Martin followed closely by Andre Reed.

 

[cartersprings]

just wondering...why not Cris Carter?...he is/was #2 in almost every stat category as a WR

I think that Carter's career totals and the fact that he was a Chris Berman favorite make him seem better than he really was. If you look at his career year-by-year, he was really only one of the top receivers in the league in 1994 and 1995. He only led his own team in receiving yards 5 times in 16 seasons, and never finished in the top 5 in the NFL in receiving yards in any season.

Wide receivers are more dependent on offensive system and the strength of their overall offense for their production than any other position. Carter's teams were some of the most pass-heavy in the league, and his stats -- especially his touchdowns -- were inflated by that. There's no question Carter benefited greatly from playing on the other side of Moss from 1998-2001. I prefer the guys who played on more balanced offenses but accounted for higher percentages of their team's passing production -- like Irvin, Tim Brown, and Jimmy Smith.

Carter also started a huge number of games (209). If Sterling Sharpe (112), Herman Moore (123), or Smith (150) had been able to play another 3-5 seasons, people would remember them as being better than Carter because on a per-game and per-season basis they were. However, Carter's years of 30-50 catches and 600-800 yards make him seem like a legend, when in fact he played large portions of his career at league-average level.

Carter also caught 130 TD's, which Moore (62 TD) & Smith (67 TD) wouldn't have likely reached with 3-5 more seasons. Moore led the league twice in receptions but only had 4 seasons with > 1000 yards and had just 9174 career receiving yards. Jimmy Smith only led the league once in any category (receptions). Carter led the league in receptions once and led in TD's three times.

I'm not sure if you actually watched him play, but Carter was a guy that people came to see. I wouldn't say the same about Moore and Smith. He had, undoubtedly, the best hands of any WR in the league. His hands and footwork were his forte.

When a team has Carter & Randy Moss, why wouldn't they mold their offense to be pass-heavy? If they are your biggest weapons then it would only make sense to use them. I don't see how this is detrimental to Carter.

You can pick and skew the stats however you like, but when it's all said and done Carter will be in the HOF (where he belongs) whereas Smith & Moore will not (rightfully so).

[youtube:2en1hphf]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RASB4uIMzQc[/youtube:2en1hphf]

PS - Sterling Sharpe was a total beast and it's too bad he couldn't play longer.

 

[rexvos]

just wondering...why not Cris Carter?...he is/was #2 in almost every stat category as a WR

I think that Carter's career totals and the fact that he was a Chris Berman favorite make him seem better than he really was. If you look at his career year-by-year, he was really only one of the top receivers in the league in 1994 and 1995. He only led his own team in receiving yards 5 times in 16 seasons, and never finished in the top 5 in the NFL in receiving yards in any season.

Wide receivers are more dependent on offensive system and the strength of their overall offense for their production than any other position. Carter's teams were some of the most pass-heavy in the league, and his stats -- especially his touchdowns -- were inflated by that. There's no question Carter benefited greatly from playing on the other side of Moss from 1998-2001. I prefer the guys who played on more balanced offenses but accounted for higher percentages of their team's passing production -- like Irvin, Tim Brown, and Jimmy Smith.

Carter also started a huge number of games (209). If Sterling Sharpe (112), Herman Moore (123), or Smith (150) had been able to play another 3-5 seasons, people would remember them as being better than Carter because on a per-game and per-season basis they were. However, Carter's years of 30-50 catches and 600-800 yards make him seem like a legend, when in fact he played large portions of his career at league-average level.

Carter also caught 130 TD's, which Moore (62 TD) & Smith (67 TD) wouldn't have likely reached with 3-5 more seasons. Moore led the league twice in receptions but only had 4 seasons with > 1000 yards and had just 9174 career receiving yards. Jimmy Smith only led the league once in any category (receptions). Carter led the league in receptions once and led in TD's three times.

I'm not sure if you actually watched him play, but Carter was a guy that people came to see. I wouldn't say the same about Moore and Smith. He had, undoubtedly, the best hands of any WR in the league. His hands and footwork were his forte.

When a team has Carter & Randy Moss, why wouldn't they mold their offense to be pass-heavy? If they are your biggest weapons then it would only make sense to use them. I don't see how this is detrimental to Carter.

You can pick and skew the stats however you like, but when it's all said and done Carter will be in the HOF (where he belongs) whereas Smith & Moore will not (rightfully so).

[youtube:3ej6i8a8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RASB4uIMzQc[/youtube:3ej6i8a8]

PS - Sterling Sharpe was a total beast and it's too bad he couldn't play longer.

interesting to note here that Cris Carter had more TDs than the pair combined.

 

[Rocketman12]

Let me clarify -- I was not arguing for Herman Moore for the Hall of Fame. However, he did earn three First Team All Pro selections right in the middle of Carter's career, and I think it's clear that he belongs on a long list of receivers whose careers overlapped Carter's and who could be considered at least Carter's equal in their primes (Rice, Reed, Brown, Irvin, Sharpe, Moore, Bruce, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Harrison, Owens, Randy Moss, Ward, Holt).

My dad is a huge Vikings fan, and I watched almost every one of Carter's games as a Viking until we moved south in 2000. And I wasn't blown away. Randy Moss was a singular talent -- probably the most feared player in modern football history -- and basically half of Carter's best years were with Moss. There were a lot of receivers in the league who would have excelled in that situation, including all of the guys above who were still active.

I understand why people would vote for Carter for the HOF, and I have no doubt that he will be elected in the near future. He ended up with impressive total stats and was certainly among the best 10-15 receivers of his era. When I compare him to the guys listed above, however, I don't feel that he was significantly better than the ones not named Rice, Moss, and Harrison -- and I think that the ones who had a longer tenure as their teams' number one receivers were more valuable.

Jimmy Smith had nine 1000-yard receiving seasons -- only Rice and Moss had more -- and led his team in receiving 10 years in a row. He was supremely valuable to his teams, some of which were quite good, and yet in two years on the HOF ballot, he hasn't even made the Semifinalist list. When I look at the list above, I think probably half of them will suffer similar fates, and that is basically why I would not vote for Carter. If and when the Hall of Fame inducts Cris Carter, then the selection committee needs to give serious consideration to 10-12 receivers who played between 1990 and 2005. And there's no way in hell that's going to happen.

 

[CollectorsCorner]

I like that your homerism is picking jimmy smith... his name doesn't even come up when I look at the great receivers from the 90's

 

[cartersprings]

Let me clarify -- I was not arguing for Herman Moore for the Hall of Fame. However, he did earn three First Team All Pro selections right in the middle of Carter's career, and I think it's clear that he belongs on a long list of receivers whose careers overlapped Carter's and who could be considered at least Carter's equal in their primes (Rice, Reed, Brown, Irvin, Sharpe, Moore, Bruce, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Harrison, Owens, Randy Moss, Ward, Holt).

My dad is a huge Vikings fan, and I watched almost every one of Carter's games as a Viking until we moved south in 2000. And I wasn't blown away. Randy Moss was a singular talent -- probably the most feared player in modern football history -- and basically half of Carter's best years were with Moss. There were a lot of receivers in the league who would have excelled in that situation, including all of the guys above who were still active.

I understand why people would vote for Carter for the HOF, and I have no doubt that he will be elected in the near future. He ended up with impressive total stats and was certainly among the best 10-15 receivers of his era. When I compare him to the guys listed above, however, I don't feel that he was significantly better than the ones not named Rice, Moss, and Harrison -- and I think that the ones who had a longer tenure as their teams' number one receivers were more valuable.

Jimmy Smith had nine 1000-yard receiving seasons -- only Rice and Moss had more -- and led his team in receiving 10 years in a row. He was supremely valuable to his teams, some of which were quite good, and yet in two years on the HOF ballot, he hasn't even made the Semifinalist list. When I look at the list above, I think probably half of them will suffer similar fates, and that is basically why I would not vote for Carter. If and when the Hall of Fame inducts Cris Carter, then the selection committee needs to give serious consideration to 10-12 receivers who played between 1990 and 2005. And there's no way in hell that's going to happen.

Solid argument. I agree that, as far as yardage production, there are others in that era who are similar or would be considered equals. However, the TD production of Carter is what puts him above them. It's not just marginally better, he has nearly double the TD output of many of those guys.

Randy Moss was a different type of receiver; a true deep threat freak. Carter was the possession receiver role to a T, providing some of the best hands, footwork, and theatrical catches. He stands as the best of the era in that department. Some of the other WR's listed (Smith, Moore, ...) likely are overshadowed as they don't really stand out against the likes of Rice, Moss, Harrison. Carter still stands out as having the best hands/footwork when compared to those guys.

Harrison is quite similar to Carter, totaling 14,580 yards (vs Carter's 13,899) and 128 TD's (vs Carter's 130). How much of Harrison's success is inflated due to having one of the (if not the) best QB's in Manning throwing to him for the prime of his career? We see a huge spike after Manning joined the team and settled in, and he would have certainly benefited from having Reggie Wayne & being in a pass heavy offense.Carter had the likes of a 38-39 year-old Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, 35 year-old Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, & Culpepper throwing to him during his prime.

I'm curious about your thoughts on Michael Irvin. He was elected to the HOF on his third try despite having only 11,904 yards & 65 TD's, not to mention just 1 first all-pro team & 5 pro bowls. I'm one who feels SB rings hold too much impact in HOF selection. To me, a SB ring is more a representation of a team achievement and the HOF is certainly an individual achievement. Thus I put Irvin well below many of the WR's listed. Heck, Rod Smith had just 515 yards less & 3 more TD's than Irvin (in 11 more games) but probably won't receive HOF consideration.

 

[cartersprings]

Also, I know you mentioned Tim Brown as being better than Carter. Brown played in 255 games, totaling 14,934 yards & 100 TD's, whereas Carter totaled 13,899 yards & 130 TD's in 234 games. That's just 1035 less yards & 30 more TD's in 21 less games.

 

[rexvos]

I like that your homerism is picking jimmy smith... his name doesn't even come up when I look at the great receivers from the 90's

I think he was definitely one of the great receivers of the 90s. No doubt.

 

[Rocketman12]

I like that your homerism is picking jimmy smith... his name doesn't even come up when I look at the great receivers from the 90's

I am very obviously a fan of Jimmy Smith, but I hope you are able to look past that and judge my arguments and his career based on their own merits. Cartersprings and rexvos have been able to do so, and I really appreciate that.

cartersprings - I see your point about Harrison being in a better situation with Manning than Carter was in with his carousel of QB's. I always considered him to be a notch below Rice/Moss and a notch above the other guys, but I should probably rethink that.

Tim Brown is the reason I have been referencing games started instead of games played. Remember that he was really just a punt returner for the first 2-3 years of his career, and he actually started slightly fewer games (202) than Carter (209). Plus, if we are considering the quality of quarterback play and strength of overall offense, Brown probably draws the shortest stick of anyone we have discussed.

I agree that SB rings are more of a team accomplishment. I don't have a problem with a borderline candidate getting a slight bump from a big game in the Super Bowl (like Bruce or Ward), but I don't think that the lack of a championship should hold back a guy who never got to play for one. As for Michael Irvin, I think he was a very worthy HOFer, and that has nothing to do with his rings. I finally found a PFR blog post -- really old these days, but still very applicable to the era we're discussing -- that started me thinking about receivers in the way I've been advocating. Check it out, and you will see why I'm so bullish on Irvin and a few other guys: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=35 .

Man, I really miss the PFR blog.

 

[cartersprings]

I see where you're coming from. I think you're putting too much weight on the % of team yardage stat.

If a team goes out and throws for a measly 150 passing yards, did WR1 have an amazing game because he caught 3 passes for 57 yards & no TD's?

Some of these guys were the only good WR on teams that didn't pass all that much, thus they tend to have a higher % of that team's passing yardage.

Wouldn't you say having a guy like Randy Moss playing in the same WR corp would cause them to take away yardage % from each other? Many of the guys ranked high on that list didn't have a WR of Moss' caliper lining up with them.

According to that ranking, Herman Moore & Jimmy Smith are better than Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Tim Brown, with Jimmy Smith better than Jerry Rice.

I just don't see how you can have a basis only of % of team yardage while ignoring the vast difference in TD production.

 

[cartersprings]

Here is the top 10 list of leaders for % of team passing yardage. The difference in % of team yardage for Moss & Carter is 2.8%. It's important to note these rankings only span a sample of 6 years from each player's career. I've added on career TD's, which is totally ignored in this list.

Player - % of team p yard - TD's
1. Michael Irvin - 38.3 - 68
2. Jimmy Smith - 36.7 - 67
3. Jerry Rice - 35.5 - 197
4. Herman Moore - 35.2 - 62
5. Tim Brown - 34.8 - 100
6. James Lofton - 34.5 - 75
7. Marvin Harrison - 34.3 - 128
8. Randy Moss - 33.8 - 153
9. Rod Smith - 33.7 - 68
10. Sterling Sharpe - 33.5 - 65*

20. Cris Carter - 31.0 - 130

I'd argue that Moss & Carter caused each other to be lower in this ranking than they would have otherwise been. Carter's % dropped 4.09% from the time before Moss to the time with Moss.

 

[Rocketman12]

First of all, I need to apologize to rexvos. I don't think he intended this thread to be this kind of discussion, but I hijacked it. I'm sorry for that, and I won't wreck it any more after this.

I don't like using touchdown stats to evaluate players because they fluctuate so much and because the factors that make them fluctuate are generally not under the players' control. For example, in 1987 Jerry Rice had 22 touchdowns on 65 catches; then in 1988 he had 9 touchdowns on 64 catches. Cris Carter had 7 touchdowns on 122 catches in 1994, then 17 touchdowns on 122 catches in 1995. I don't think these guys suddenly got better or worse at scoring touchdowns. I think it's more likely that in their big TD years, game situations and their offenses afforded them more opportunities to score, or perhaps they capitalized on a greater percentage of their opportunities.

Over the course of a player's career, those factors can make a big difference in his TD total. Emmitt Smith has a huge touchdown advantage over Barry Sanders, but because he played more games and in higher-scoring offenses. Even Shaun Alexander has more touchdowns than Sanders, and in a lot fewer games, but I don't think you'll find anyone arguing that Alexander was better on the basis of his "touchdown-scoring ability". Yardage production fluctuates because of these factors also, but not as much percentage-wise, and that's why I prefer looking at it first.

I did not mean for the above list to be taken as my ultimate ranking of wide receivers. Obviously, I do not think Jimmy Smith was better than Jerry Rice. I think it is a useful metric for comparing guys who ended their careers with HOF-level receiving stats (12,000 career yards or so). The receivers who had that kind of career while in the top 10 of that list look to me like the ones who didn't need great receivers for teammates, who faced the other team's top cornerback every week, who defenses gameplanned to stop, yet who still produced when their teams needed them to. That's the definition of a HOF wide receiver as far as I'm concerned.

For what it's worth, your arguments have convinced me that Cris Carter is worthy of my support for the HOF. Thanks.

 

[SilverandBlack]

Chris Carter and Tim brown not being in the hall is a joke they were the number 2 and number 3 receivers behind Rice when they retired in just about every major receiving category. Anyone who says Reed should be in before those two didn't watch a lot of football in the 90s