Why is 2010 Bowman Chrome dropping like a rock?

[craftysouthpaw]

I would like to argue that the 9000-12,000 cases is NOT too many, especially with the unprecedented hype that we saw with Strasburg, especially in baseball.

They made around the same number of cases of 2001 sp authentic GOLF. Yes, golf cards. I estimated around 10,000 cases produced, and boxes went through the roof despite the relatively high production after a few years. And fortunately, you can still find sealed cases today. The production of BC will ensure that even five years later it can at least still be found, unlike bowman sterling boxes, but be in not enough supply to meet the demand. Sure, SPA did dip down to $60 a box, but it shortly regained momentum and is currently at around $140 a box, showing that the perceived high production can still be less than the demand eventually.

2001 SP authentic golf was $30-$40 for YEARS because it was overproduced and incredibly watered down. it took about 7 years to dry up.

9000 cases of BC is too many because they are doubling the normal print run without adding any content. if they were adding a lot of value at the same time as they were increasing production it would be a different story, but they aren't.

SPA golf got as low as $60, not $30. I would have purchased every single case in existence if they ever got as low as $30.

9000 cases of bowman chrome would have kept boxes "affordable" had Stras not gotten injured, in the $60-$80 range.

If they only made 4500 cases and Stras did not get injured, the boxes would be well over $100 apiece.

I think everyone who is grumpy simply pre-bought too high, i'm glad they made a ton of it, cause it will be a fun crack even five, ten years down the line, especially if Stras becomes the next Lincecum or Halladay.

Wouldn't you have been happier had they made double the cases of 2003-4 topps chrome if you were a Lebron/Wade/Melo/Bosh fan? You can't even find a box nowadays for anything near affordable, and had they doubled the production back then, at least you could still find boxes to crack for under $100.

It might be fun to crack in five or ten years but it won't be because of Strasburg since Topps won't honor redemptions that are turned in even a day after the expiration date (unlike Panini).

 

[sdsportsfan1214]

I would like to argue that the 9000-12,000 cases is NOT too many, especially with the unprecedented hype that we saw with Strasburg, especially in baseball.

They made around the same number of cases of 2001 sp authentic GOLF. Yes, golf cards. I estimated around 10,000 cases produced, and boxes went through the roof despite the relatively high production after a few years. And fortunately, you can still find sealed cases today. The production of BC will ensure that even five years later it can at least still be found, unlike bowman sterling boxes, but be in not enough supply to meet the demand. Sure, SPA did dip down to $60 a box, but it shortly regained momentum and is currently at around $140 a box, showing that the perceived high production can still be less than the demand eventually.

2001 SP authentic golf was $30-$40 for YEARS because it was overproduced and incredibly watered down. it took about 7 years to dry up.

9000 cases of BC is too many because they are doubling the normal print run without adding any content. if they were adding a lot of value at the same time as they were increasing production it would be a different story, but they aren't.

SPA golf got as low as $60, not $30. I would have purchased every single case in existence if they ever got as low as $30.

9000 cases of bowman chrome would have kept boxes "affordable" had Stras not gotten injured, in the $60-$80 range.

If they only made 4500 cases and Stras did not get injured, the boxes would be well over $100 apiece.

I think everyone who is grumpy simply pre-bought too high, i'm glad they made a ton of it, cause it will be a fun crack even five, ten years down the line, especially if Stras becomes the next Lincecum or Halladay.

Wouldn't you have been happier had they made double the cases of 2003-4 topps chrome if you were a Lebron/Wade/Melo/Bosh fan? You can't even find a box nowadays for anything near affordable, and had they doubled the production back then, at least you could still find boxes to crack for under $100.

It might be fun to crack in five or ten years but it won't be because of Strasburg since Topps won't honor redemptions that are turned in even a day after the expiration date (unlike Panini).

Another reason Donruss/Panini > Topps

 

[brouthercard]

Good point about the redemption for Stras.

I guess it's tough to find a perfect example for comparison's sake since companies don't reveal case print runs, but my point is that the money is there to support a 10,000 case product with the right timing.

It's just that Topps has been off, but I believe it is possible to have the right mixture of factors to have a 10,000 case product be successful in today's environment.

Maybe i'm just more optimistic about that part of the hobby than others.

Then again, I didn't pre-order anything from Topps this year :lol: :lol:

I suppose a better example would be 2009 BASE Topps - they've got to make around 10,000 cases of that product, and 2009 series 1 is still holding up very well price wise despite there not being any really desirable cards in the product that are worth cracking it for.

So basically, if it's good, the people will come, even if the print run is 10,000 cases.