Will there ever again be a hot base rookie card?

[smapdi]

I don't mean something like a base Bowman card, where there are already 4 parallels and chrome versions and such and is basically the afterthought of the chrome version. Nor a gimmicky Jeter-Bush card. But a real base card from a mass-produced set that sends people scrambling to their old commons boxes. It used to happen every year or two, guys like Shane Spencer, Sean Casey, and the last one I can think of is Dan Uggla, whose only RC was 2004 Topps Total, plus the silver parallel. Maybe Pat Neshek, though he was in at least 3 different 2006 sets and I don't think ever got very hot. You'd think it'd happen once in a while, some sleeper guy would sneak into an obscure Topps or UD set, or even the base set, and not be in the bigger brands but a couple years on he tears up triple-A, gets promoted and has a hot first week and bam, $20 card "overnight." Seems like the prospects are so consolidated into certain sets now, due mainly to the RC logo issue, that there are very few true sleepers anymore.

 

[sportscardtheory]

I don't mean something like a base Bowman card, where there are already 4 parallels and chrome versions and such and is basically the afterthought of the chrome version. Nor a gimmicky Jeter-Bush card. But a real base card from a mass-produced set that sends people scrambling to their old commons boxes. It used to happen every year or two, guys like Shane Spencer, Sean Casey, and the last one I can think of is Dan Uggla, whose only RC was 2004 Topps Total, plus the silver parallel. Maybe Pat Neshek, though he was in at least 3 different 2006 sets and I don't think ever got very hot. You'd think it'd happen once in a while, some sleeper guy would sneak into an obscure Topps or UD set, or even the base set, and not be in the bigger brands but a couple years on he tears up triple-A, gets promoted and has a hot first week and bam, $20 card "overnight." Seems like the prospects are so consolidated into certain sets now, due mainly to the RC logo issue, that there are very few true sleepers anymore.

Are you talking only current issues? Are cards like the 1997 Bowman Chrome Roy Halladay not what you mean? There are definitely hot singles that "come back" from years of dormancy, but newer stuff is sketchy. The 2008 Topps Heritage Pablo Sandoval RC (his only true RC) could be pretty big, but he's having an awful season.

 

[Sly]

This is definitely one of the great things about Hockey. Each year they include 50 (or so) rookies in each series and these "Young Guns" cards are pretty hot. The John Tavares YG out of release was selling for $100, and has probably settled in around $60.

I think if UD had done this in baseball, and SP'd these Rookie Cards (not ridiculous SP though...6 per box is what's in hockey), they could have been solid.

BUT, with that being said, I think with Bowman creating "Pre-Rookie" cards, and the addition of the RC logo, these "mass-produced" base set rookie cards will never be more than a couple bucks until we get another Pujols or Ichiro.

 

[wem1472]

Hmm. This is a good question. My first thought was absolutely. But the parallel/chrome type rookies from stuff like Bowman may have dampened this effect going forward.

I remember when this happened with Jermaine Dye from 1994 Bowman. Buchholz was through the roof too, but that was his bowman chrome rc and not a base card (well, technically, I suppose that was a base card, but I think you might want to exclude chromes if I am reading your post correctly).

So maybe not. Maybe someone from one of them there AFLAC sets or something may still be a sleeper card down the road.

I think you left out Chris Shelton too - remember that one? LOL. Jermaine Dye 94 Bowman and Beltran 94 TT are a couple others I remember doing that.

 

[011873]

Though not plunked from dime common boxes, the following auto rookies could have been found in $3-$5 boxes at some point over the last three years:

Cervelli
Braden
Ike
Monty
Ubaldo
Nelson Cruz
Happ
Darnell McDonald
Blanks
Bautista
Jaso
Victorino

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

A player will likely have multiple base issues every year which will limit growth.

 

[JoshHamilton]

A player will likely have multiple base issues every year which will limit growth.

This.

Although I think there will be a resurgence in cheap base rookies, especially now that Topps is the only manufacturer.

Guys like Posey and Heyward will have only a handful of cheap non auto'd rookies - Topps, Bowman, A&G, 206, Topps Chrome - I don't think there are any low end products that will be released besides those.

I can easily see those as $10-$12 cards (SV, not BV) a few years down the road

 

[Leaf]

Stasburg USA bases have snuck over 50.00! I just bought 9.5's at 125.00!!! BG