Will Ubaldo Jimenez win 25+ games in 2010

[sportscardtheory]

No pitcher has won 25+ games in 20 years (Bob Welch with 27 in 1990). Can Ubaldo Jimenez pull it off?

 

[RL24]

I voted no. I hope he does, I wish him the best, but... he has had so much luck thus far, I don't think it can hold up that well for that long. I mean, I know he is pitching extremely well, but it takes more than that to get a win. Your team has to score at least 1 run (I'm an Indians fan, so I don't take scoring 1 run for granted) and your bullpen has to not ruin the W for you. 25 Wins. That's really really tough in this day and age... but it would really be something!

 

[darocker80]

Agreed. 20 games isn't out of question, but 25 is mighty tough. Heck lincecum with his exceptional ERA, WHIP, Opp BAA etc only managed to scrape out 15 wins last season (despite a crappy offense and a bull pen that seems to blow only his victories).

Like RL24 said, its more than just pitching well, its luck. Everything has to go right for you.

 

[17ROCKIES12]

I voted no. I hope he does, I wish him the best, but... he has had so much luck thus far, I don't think it can hold up that well for that long. I mean, I know he is pitching extremely well, but it takes more than that to get a win. Your team has to score at least 1 run (I'm an Indians fan, so I don't take scoring 1 run for granted) and your bullpen has to not ruin the W for you. 25 Wins. That's really really tough in this day and age... but it would really be something!

Luck?
The most runs he has given up is 3. The bullpen is barely needed when he pitched. The one game he lost he gave up 2 hits and one run.

I don't see how he's getting lucky. It's not like he has an ERA of 4 and is getting 8 runs per game of run support.

 

[Superfractor]

I do not think so, but I do believe he has not been in too many "luck-" related situations. He's the real deal, this year.


I'm cashing in, too.

 

[MOFNY]

I'm going with no. W-L is way too unpredictable nowadays. It is genuinely difficult to win that many. Jimenez will have a rough patch no doubt. He's a tremendous pitcher, but I'm going with my gut here.

 

[Pine Tar]

I voted no. Just to hard to do it

 

[fengzhang]

I voted no. I hope he does, I wish him the best, but... he has had so much luck thus far, I don't think it can hold up that well for that long. I mean, I know he is pitching extremely well, but it takes more than that to get a win. Your team has to score at least 1 run (I'm an Indians fan, so I don't take scoring 1 run for granted) and your bullpen has to not ruin the W for you. 25 Wins. That's really really tough in this day and age... but it would really be something!

Luck?
The most runs he has given up is 3. The bullpen is barely needed when he pitched. The one game he lost he gave up 2 hits and one run.

I don't see how he's getting lucky. It's not like he has an ERA of 4 and is getting 8 runs per game of run support.

Here's the thing: sometimes you pitch good games and lose or don't a decision. Matt Cain has had 3 losses and 1 ND where he's given up 2 runs or less, for example. All pitchers get those. If you look at Lincecum's game log from the past couple of years, you'll see the same.

Giving up 5 ER and getting a win requires good luck.
Giving up 1 ER and taking the loss is bad luck.

While it's true that Jimenez hasn't needed any good luck, it's also true that he has avoided all bad luck. Every time he's pitched a good game he's gotten a win. No ND or losses (except for the one game). He's going to need that to continue if he wants to get to 25 wins. Stellar pitching doesn't always mean you'll get a win.

 

[17ROCKIES12]

I voted no. I hope he does, I wish him the best, but... he has had so much luck thus far, I don't think it can hold up that well for that long. I mean, I know he is pitching extremely well, but it takes more than that to get a win. Your team has to score at least 1 run (I'm an Indians fan, so I don't take scoring 1 run for granted) and your bullpen has to not ruin the W for you. 25 Wins. That's really really tough in this day and age... but it would really be something!

Luck?
The most runs he has given up is 3. The bullpen is barely needed when he pitched. The one game he lost he gave up 2 hits and one run.

I don't see how he's getting lucky. It's not like he has an ERA of 4 and is getting 8 runs per game of run support.

Here's the thing: sometimes you pitch good games and lose or don't a decision. Matt Cain has had 3 losses and 1 ND where he's given up 2 runs or less, for example. All pitchers get those. If you look at Lincecum's game log from the past couple of years, you'll see the same.

Giving up 5 ER and getting a win requires good luck.
Giving up 1 ER and taking the loss is bad luck.

While it's true that Jimenez hasn't needed any good luck, it's also true that he has avoided all bad luck. He's going to need that to continue if he wants to get to 25 wins. Stellar pitching doesn't always mean you'll get a win.

I understand that. He can even have some bad luck and pull it off. He's still on pace to win 31 games.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I voted no. I hope he does, I wish him the best, but... he has had so much luck thus far, I don't think it can hold up that well for that long. I mean, I know he is pitching extremely well, but it takes more than that to get a win. Your team has to score at least 1 run (I'm an Indians fan, so I don't take scoring 1 run for granted) and your bullpen has to not ruin the W for you. 25 Wins. That's really really tough in this day and age... but it would really be something!

Luck?
The most runs he has given up is 3. The bullpen is barely needed when he pitched. The one game he lost he gave up 2 hits and one run.

I don't see how he's getting lucky. It's not like he has an ERA of 4 and is getting 8 runs per game of run support.

Here's the thing: sometimes you pitch good games and lose or don't a decision. Matt Cain has had 3 losses and 1 ND where he's given up 2 runs or less, for example. All pitchers get those. If you look at Lincecum's game log from the past couple of years, you'll see the same.

Giving up 5 ER and getting a win requires good luck.
Giving up 1 ER and taking the loss is bad luck.

While it's true that Jimenez hasn't needed any good luck, it's also true that he has avoided all bad luck. Every time he's pitched a good game he's gotten a win. No ND or losses (except for the one game). He's going to need that to continue if he wants to get to 25 wins. Stellar pitching doesn't always mean you'll get a win.

I believe he has been exceptionally lucky as far as giving up so few runs. I believe his opponents BABIP and other "lucky" stats show his luck has been off the charts (when considering his WHIP etc.)

 

[fengzhang]

I voted no. I hope he does, I wish him the best, but... he has had so much luck thus far, I don't think it can hold up that well for that long. I mean, I know he is pitching extremely well, but it takes more than that to get a win. Your team has to score at least 1 run (I'm an Indians fan, so I don't take scoring 1 run for granted) and your bullpen has to not ruin the W for you. 25 Wins. That's really really tough in this day and age... but it would really be something!

Luck?
The most runs he has given up is 3. The bullpen is barely needed when he pitched. The one game he lost he gave up 2 hits and one run.

I don't see how he's getting lucky. It's not like he has an ERA of 4 and is getting 8 runs per game of run support.

Here's the thing: sometimes you pitch good games and lose or don't a decision. Matt Cain has had 3 losses and 1 ND where he's given up 2 runs or less, for example. All pitchers get those. If you look at Lincecum's game log from the past couple of years, you'll see the same.

Giving up 5 ER and getting a win requires good luck.
Giving up 1 ER and taking the loss is bad luck.

While it's true that Jimenez hasn't needed any good luck, it's also true that he has avoided all bad luck. Every time he's pitched a good game he's gotten a win. No ND or losses (except for the one game). He's going to need that to continue if he wants to get to 25 wins. Stellar pitching doesn't always mean you'll get a win.

I believe he has been exceptionally lucky as far as giving up so few runs. I believe his opponents BABIP and other "lucky" stats show his luck has been off the charts (when considering his WHIP etc.)

You may be right. But, I attribute less of that to luck than how much run support you get since that's more under the control of the pitcher. Some pitchers simply bear down when they're in trouble and have better ERA's than their WHIPs would indicate. Roy Oswalt got along for years giving up a ton of hits. Greg Maddux gave up 260 hits in 220 innings one year and still had a 3.5 ERA. Even with an amazing BB/IP ratio, he should've had a ERA closer to 5. But, I agree with you that Jimenez won't maintain his current ERA unless he starts cutting down the walks.

 

[sportscardtheory]

I voted no. I hope he does, I wish him the best, but... he has had so much luck thus far, I don't think it can hold up that well for that long. I mean, I know he is pitching extremely well, but it takes more than that to get a win. Your team has to score at least 1 run (I'm an Indians fan, so I don't take scoring 1 run for granted) and your bullpen has to not ruin the W for you. 25 Wins. That's really really tough in this day and age... but it would really be something!

Luck?
The most runs he has given up is 3. The bullpen is barely needed when he pitched. The one game he lost he gave up 2 hits and one run.

I don't see how he's getting lucky. It's not like he has an ERA of 4 and is getting 8 runs per game of run support.

Here's the thing: sometimes you pitch good games and lose or don't a decision. Matt Cain has had 3 losses and 1 ND where he's given up 2 runs or less, for example. All pitchers get those. If you look at Lincecum's game log from the past couple of years, you'll see the same.

Giving up 5 ER and getting a win requires good luck.
Giving up 1 ER and taking the loss is bad luck.

While it's true that Jimenez hasn't needed any good luck, it's also true that he has avoided all bad luck. Every time he's pitched a good game he's gotten a win. No ND or losses (except for the one game). He's going to need that to continue if he wants to get to 25 wins. Stellar pitching doesn't always mean you'll get a win.

I believe he has been exceptionally lucky as far as giving up so few runs. I believe his opponents BABIP and other "lucky" stats show his luck has been off the charts (when considering his WHIP etc.)

::facepalm:: How can anyone say what he is doing is luck??? You don't get "lucky" leading the league in WINS/ERA/WHIP after 13 starts with only 1 loss. That's NOT luck. Luck may be a few games, not 13 games. 13 consecutive Quality Starts to start a season is not luck.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I voted no. I hope he does, I wish him the best, but... he has had so much luck thus far, I don't think it can hold up that well for that long. I mean, I know he is pitching extremely well, but it takes more than that to get a win. Your team has to score at least 1 run (I'm an Indians fan, so I don't take scoring 1 run for granted) and your bullpen has to not ruin the W for you. 25 Wins. That's really really tough in this day and age... but it would really be something!

Luck?
The most runs he has given up is 3. The bullpen is barely needed when he pitched. The one game he lost he gave up 2 hits and one run.

I don't see how he's getting lucky. It's not like he has an ERA of 4 and is getting 8 runs per game of run support.

Here's the thing: sometimes you pitch good games and lose or don't a decision. Matt Cain has had 3 losses and 1 ND where he's given up 2 runs or less, for example. All pitchers get those. If you look at Lincecum's game log from the past couple of years, you'll see the same.

Giving up 5 ER and getting a win requires good luck.
Giving up 1 ER and taking the loss is bad luck.

While it's true that Jimenez hasn't needed any good luck, it's also true that he has avoided all bad luck. Every time he's pitched a good game he's gotten a win. No ND or losses (except for the one game). He's going to need that to continue if he wants to get to 25 wins. Stellar pitching doesn't always mean you'll get a win.

I believe he has been exceptionally lucky as far as giving up so few runs. I believe his opponents BABIP and other "lucky" stats show his luck has been off the charts (when considering his WHIP etc.)

::facepalm:: How can anyone say what he is doing is luck??? You don't get "lucky" leading the league in WINS/ERA/WHIP after 13 starts with only 1 loss. That's NOT luck. Luck may be a few games, not 13 games.

No one said he has not pitched well. No one said that he's been lucky in all his games. No one is saying his stuff is not good and therefore he's gotten by on luck. All that was said was that the insane statistics he has put up are partially due to some luck. That is all.

 

[sportscardtheory]

::facepalm:: How can anyone say what he is doing is luck??? You don't get "lucky" leading the league in WINS/ERA/WHIP after 13 starts with only 1 loss. That's NOT luck. Luck may be a few games, not 13 games.

No one said he has not pitched well. No one said that he's been lucky in all his games. No one is saying his stuff is not good and therefore he's gotten by on luck. All that was said was that the insane statistics he has put up are partially due to some luck. That is all.

Can you not say the same about any pitcher to ever win a game. There is always luck involved.

 

[Topnotchsy]

::facepalm:: How can anyone say what he is doing is luck??? You don't get "lucky" leading the league in WINS/ERA/WHIP after 13 starts with only 1 loss. That's NOT luck. Luck may be a few games, not 13 games.

No one said he has not pitched well. No one said that he's been lucky in all his games. No one is saying his stuff is not good and therefore he's gotten by on luck. All that was said was that the insane statistics he has put up are partially due to some luck. That is all.

Can you not say the same about any pitcher to ever win a game. There is always luck involved.

I'm not sure you are following. There are certain aspects in a baseball that a pitcher can control to a large degree. For example, the number of walks he gives up. Other things, like whether the line drive that was hit was hit directly at a player and not into the alleys for a double are almost completely out of their control. Because of this, baseball statisticians have developed metrics to help calculate how a player is doing removing the luck factors (and calculating the luck factors.) Based on stats like these it is clear that Ubaldo is not pitching as well as his stats would indicate. This is not to say he is not pitching exceptionally well...

 

[17ROCKIES12]

::facepalm:: How can anyone say what he is doing is luck??? You don't get "lucky" leading the league in WINS/ERA/WHIP after 13 starts with only 1 loss. That's NOT luck. Luck may be a few games, not 13 games.

No one said he has not pitched well. No one said that he's been lucky in all his games. No one is saying his stuff is not good and therefore he's gotten by on luck. All that was said was that the insane statistics he has put up are partially due to some luck. That is all.

Can you not say the same about any pitcher to ever win a game. There is always luck involved.

I'm not sure you are following. There are certain aspects in a baseball that a pitcher can control to a large degree. For example, the number of walks he gives up. Other things, like whether the line drive that was hit was hit directly at a player and not into the alleys for a double are almost completely out of their control. Because of this, baseball statisticians have developed metrics to help calculate how a player is doing removing the luck factors (and calculating the luck factors.) Based on stats like these it is clear that Ubaldo is not pitching as well as his stats would indicate. This is not to say he is not pitching exceptionally well...

Can you share some of these stats?


What no stats will show is him making key pitches when he gets into jams (which happens very rarely). As someone who has watched almost every game of his it's safe to say he's only made a few mistake pitches all year.

 

[Topnotchsy]

::facepalm:: How can anyone say what he is doing is luck??? You don't get "lucky" leading the league in WINS/ERA/WHIP after 13 starts with only 1 loss. That's NOT luck. Luck may be a few games, not 13 games.

No one said he has not pitched well. No one said that he's been lucky in all his games. No one is saying his stuff is not good and therefore he's gotten by on luck. All that was said was that the insane statistics he has put up are partially due to some luck. That is all.

Can you not say the same about any pitcher to ever win a game. There is always luck involved.

I'm not sure you are following. There are certain aspects in a baseball that a pitcher can control to a large degree. For example, the number of walks he gives up. Other things, like whether the line drive that was hit was hit directly at a player and not into the alleys for a double are almost completely out of their control. Because of this, baseball statisticians have developed metrics to help calculate how a player is doing removing the luck factors (and calculating the luck factors.) Based on stats like these it is clear that Ubaldo is not pitching as well as his stats would indicate. This is not to say he is not pitching exceptionally well...

Can you share some of these stats?


What no stats will show is him making key pitches when he gets into jams (which happens very rarely). As someone who has watched almost every game of his it's safe to say he's only made a few mistake pitches all year.

There is room to debate whether his ability to "pitch out of jams" itself is an indication of luck. Over the long haul many believe that being "clutch" is based on luck more than anything else, and the numbers even themselves out over time.

Here are some articles that discuss some of the ideas:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/3997 ... do-jimenez

briefly mentioned here:
http://www.espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/t ... do-jimenez

Some good points are brought up here:
http://www.baseball-fever.com/archive/i ... 98133.html

 

[17ROCKIES12]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/3997 ... do-jimenez[/url]

briefly mentioned here:
http://www.espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/t ... do-jimenez

Some good points are brought up here:
http://www.baseball-fever.com/archive/i ... 98133.html[/quote:1gj1apc2]
Thanks for posting those links.

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with what you call "luck". When you average less than 1 run per start, have an ERA around 1, a WHIP less than 1, and throw 100 mph, it isn't luck. If you look at each individual outing, he'd be unlucky to lose any of those.

With that being said, I still don't think he'll maintain these number (they're already getting a little worse). He's bound to have a bad outing eventually. The HR/FB percentage (mentioned in the article) is something that will eventually come back to earth too.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Thanks for posting those links.

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with what you call "luck". When you average less than 1 run per start, have an ERA around 1, a WHIP less than 1, and throw 100 mph, it isn't luck. If you look at each individual outing, he'd be unlucky to lose any of those.

With that being said, I still don't think he'll maintain these number (they're already getting a little worse). He's bound to have a bad outing eventually. The HR/FB percentage (mentioned in the article) is something that will eventually come back to earth too.

Point is that he's lucky to have an ERA so low. People with his WHIP generally have much higher ERA's. (Other stats indicate the same.)

 

[17ROCKIES12]

Thanks for posting those links.

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with what you call "luck". When you average less than 1 run per start, have an ERA around 1, a WHIP less than 1, and throw 100 mph, it isn't luck. If you look at each individual outing, he'd be unlucky to lose any of those.

With that being said, I still don't think he'll maintain these number (they're already getting a little worse). He's bound to have a bad outing eventually. The HR/FB percentage (mentioned in the article) is something that will eventually come back to earth too.

Point is that he's lucky to have an ERA so low. People with his WHIP generally have much higher ERA's. (Other stats indicate the same.)

After a little research, that's very true
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leade ... ason.shtml
ERA might be a little lucky due to his WHIP

What I have trouble calling him lucky about is his number of wins
http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=28625
All of these starts are going to win 70% (most recent start) to 100% (complete game shutouts) of the time (estimates obviously).