Wondering about some of the Prospectors

[plainwhitejerseys]

Ive got a few of those :x With the collectibles market in general being in the crapper, I don't know that think there are many people making good consistent money prospecting right now. You can catch lightning in a bottle every now and then and I know that some of you are more disciplined and educated than others. But the reality is it seems the scale has been sliding downward overall to a point that it usually takes a torrid hot streak from a prospect lately just to approach the prices(break even or make a small $) that the same guy was reaching a year ago while you "bought in low" before his explosion.

I've been doing pretty well. Really well, actually. This has probably been my best season, but that's because seemingly three times as many players are being called up compared to usual, and some of the guys I had written off as "misses" a couple years ago are "hitting" now.

If you saw my success rate, your jaw would drop. I don't do things the usual way though. I wouldn't even look at guys that other prospectors buy like crazy. Not bragging, I just have a different strategy.

plainwhite-Always dug the cheezburg avatar photo

Thank you. The real dog is pretty cool too. Breath like hot garbage though.

 

[plainwhitejerseys]

The smartest + most profitable prospectors are the 1s who are the quietest.

Excellent line.

Though sometimes they are "loud" about things other than their prospecting. To me, the only reason ever to show your "stash" is when you have a nice inventory of someone who is clearly not going to make it. At that point, the "stash" becomes a collection.

What about Cooper Brannan?

Hehehe. My wife pulled a Brannan the other day and laughed out loud.

 

[soccerman034]

I suck at prospecting, and will always be the first to admit it.

 

[craiger122003]

Agreed the best deals made are the ones that are never talked about the silent crew has much more than the guys that brag for every of /50 there are 49 more

people tend to often focus on the ‘bling’ side of prospecting while forgetting that the more rare the card, the higher your buy in. people also tend to get wowed by sigs on message boards yet rarely follow the transaction from purchase to sale + if they did, they’d probably find that, like in vegas, many people talk about their ‘wins,’ yet may people actually lose once you count in the buy in (usually too high), the fees, + the sell price (usually lower than they paid).

some prospectors (like me) can/do make $ prospecting (and yes, I have my fails- see chris lubanski lol), but rarely do it through ‘bling’ cards that I show off on message boards. I buy early + I buy guys who are cheap b/c everyone + their baby mamma are chasing the guy on the bc/bcdp box. Ex., I was buying up madbum xfractors @ $5 ea. I also invest a limited amount in a player- ex., I spent a whopping $400 on my entire moose stash + have long since paid it off (+ still have a gold 9.5, 7 blue ref 9.5s, some ref 9.5s, some x 9.5s, 8 ee au 9.5s, 3 ee au 9s, etc.) b/c I sold some when his prices doubled from what I paid. The most ‘bling’ card I prospect in is generally a blue refractor as the profit % is generally greater on blue refs and below. I also ‘know when to fold them’ + do NOT try to sell @ the absolute high.

Greed, ego, + lack of knowledge do most prospectors in imo + often, those who people view as ‘smart prospectors’ LOSE $ yet are seen as ‘smart’ b/c they post the most and/or post the most ‘bling.’ The smartest + most profitable prospectors are the 1s who are the quietest.

Jen speaks the truth. IMO some of the guys who come on the boards and itemize every transaction they have invested and post when they made 6 dollars are the people who haven't got a clue and never will. The people who are quiet and dont flaunt when they make a profit on a prospect are the people who know whats up.

 

[All The Hype]

About to head off to work so bookmarking this thread for later.

To the OP, if you have AIM or want to PM me, I will gladly give you my perspective on whatever questions you have. I love this stuff and I've had a lot of success at it....but unlike most people, I actually keep track of every single number to prove it.

 

[Hold Steady]

I love stats and baseball cards, so I recently decided to try my hand at prospecting. I don't really plan to make money but if I did that'd be a plus. The way I look at it, is that if I can buy guys and get auto cards or refractors (which I love both), that's cool. If they make it, great but if they don't I'm stuck with a bunch of guys who nobody has heard of, which I love collecting those types of players. I don't know why that is though.

My question is, when you guys go to find out about your prospects, do you usually quote different websites for prospect listings, almanacs, or both? And when you find out the guys who you'd like to go after, how do you continually see how they are doing?

For instance, I've searched a few sites and come up with a list of about 7 guys who I'd like to purchase items of. I currently am researching their numbers and keep them in an excel spreadsheet. To be totally honest, I'm more of a stat nerd than anything and find keeping stats is like GM'ing to me. If I could have a baseball card or two of a guy who I've been following sometime, I think that's pretty cool.

This thread has been a great read, thanks to everyone who has contributed.

 

[kentuckyderby]

I love stats and baseball cards, so I recently decided to try my hand at prospecting. I don't really plan to make money but if I did that'd be a plus. The way I look at it, is that if I can buy guys and get auto cards or refractors (which I love both), that's cool. If they make it, great but if they don't I'm stuck with a bunch of guys who nobody has heard of, which I love collecting those types of players. I don't know why that is though.

My question is, when you guys go to find out about your prospects, do you usually quote different websites for prospect listings, almanacs, or both? And when you find out the guys who you'd like to go after, how do you continually see how they are doing?

For instance, I've searched a few sites and come up with a list of about 7 guys who I'd like to purchase items of. I currently am researching their numbers and keep them in an excel spreadsheet. To be totally honest, I'm more of a stat nerd than anything and find keeping stats is like GM'ing to me. If I could have a baseball card or two of a guy who I've been following sometime, I think that's pretty cool.

This thread has been a great read, thanks to everyone who has contributed.

If someone is going to "prospect" and they use Baseball America's Hot Sheet or some fantasy baseball magazine they are too late in the game for any big time returns. By then, others already bought in at a cheaper price

 

[EricInCT]

I love stats and baseball cards, so I recently decided to try my hand at prospecting. I don't really plan to make money but if I did that'd be a plus. The way I look at it, is that if I can buy guys and get auto cards or refractors (which I love both), that's cool. If they make it, great but if they don't I'm stuck with a bunch of guys who nobody has heard of, which I love collecting those types of players. I don't know why that is though.

My question is, when you guys go to find out about your prospects, do you usually quote different websites for prospect listings, almanacs, or both? And when you find out the guys who you'd like to go after, how do you continually see how they are doing?

For instance, I've searched a few sites and come up with a list of about 7 guys who I'd like to purchase items of. I currently am researching their numbers and keep them in an excel spreadsheet. To be totally honest, I'm more of a stat nerd than anything and find keeping stats is like GM'ing to me. If I could have a baseball card or two of a guy who I've been following sometime, I think that's pretty cool.

This thread has been a great read, thanks to everyone who has contributed.

If someone is going to "prospect" and they use Baseball America's Hot Sheet or some fantasy baseball magazine they are too late in the game for any big time returns. By then, others already bought in at a cheaper price

those who predict the weekly hot sheet have a much higher ROI then those who chase it after it is released

 

[rainmanesq]

Ditto to what jersey said. While I may have some ‘hyped’ guys (madbum, moose, heyward), I usually have them b/c I pulled them from cases I ripped or b/c I got them ridiculously cheap. A lot of it’s timing- list stuff when everyone + their mama lists + you’ll likely fetch less. Be the only 1 (or 1 of a few) who has the stuff up + you’ll likely fetch more. Diversify beyond prospecting (I buy/sell collections for ex.- as well as selling media, electronics, videogames, etc.) + you’ll do well.

As for how to prospect, I just buy what JP buys lol on a more serious note, it’s a combo of things- watching the guys in hs (Hughes, Dominguez, moose, etc.) and/or @ aflac games (heyward, madbum, etc.), watching the guys @ spring training +/or minor league games, reading every baseball related site/book/etc. out there, watching message boards, etc. by the time a guy hits the mainstream publications (BA, message board hype to some degree), I’ve already bought him + am likely selling/making back my $.

 

[rainmanesq]

The smartest + most profitable prospectors are the 1s who are the quietest.

Excellent line.

Though sometimes they are "loud" about things other than their prospecting. To me, the only reason ever to show your "stash" is when you have a nice inventory of someone who is clearly not going to make it. At that point, the "stash" becomes a collection.

Outside of a few players (madbum, moose currently), I don’t really acquire ‘stashes’ of guys…and even though I love love love moose (he’s so sexay), even I part w/my prospects + in fact, I’ve already sold enough of my ‘stash’ to pay off my moose investment AND make a tidy profit. I diversify prospecting- like stocks, would rather have my eggs in say 25 baskets than 1-2. it’s pretty easy to notice if a guy’s tanking/not going to make it + the people who usually have ‘stashes’ of failed prospects simply held on too long imo

 

[plainwhitejerseys]

My question is, when you guys go to find out about your prospects, do you usually quote different websites for prospect listings, almanacs, or both?

Neither. I sell to the people who get their info from prospect lists and BA.

And when you find out the guys who you'd like to go after, how do you continually see how they are doing?

milb.com

 

[All The Hype]

3 Quick Tips:

1. Keep track of everything. Like many have said, a lot of people tend to only remember their successes and "black out" their losses. They might think they are making money, but in reality, you have to look at the big picture. Keep track of exactly what you paid including shipping and keep track of the exact amount of money you take in after all fees. Calculate your profit or loss based on these numbers. Otherwise you are just lying to yourself.

2. Buying into big-name prospects is usually not the best way to make money. Exceptions do happen, but when you're spending 60 dollars on a blue refractor thinking you are going to be able to flip it for a huge profit, you probably need to reconsider the guy you're buying into. The easiest way to profit is finding guys who are flying under the radar or who have huge talent, but may not be fully developed yet. It's when the "unheard-ofs" get heard of that creates a profit opportunity.

My Personal Exception Example: The only big-name guy I've ever bought heavily into is Rick Porcello. Why? Because he is 20 years old, he is already an outstanding talent, and he has more potential than anyone. Even if he had been terrible this year, he basically would still have 3 or 4 seasons to figure it out before we could really start calling him a bust. Instead, he is in the majors and pitching exceptionally for his age. I still have most of this stash, but I'm confident that he will make me a boatload of money in the future (possibly even a year or three down the road).

3. Buy lots of low end stuff. High end stuff is easier to move and is probably more fun to own, but the lower end stuff is usually what pays off better.

 

[jcmint]

Some of the posts in this thread are cracking me up. Their are some inflated craniums floating around. LOL

 

[aaron41984]

I have local ppl that I sell to who don't take the time to research for themselves, so I pretty much do it for them at a premium. Once I have pretty much gauged the local response on a guy, then the cards go into my bucket or on eBay. I can tell you right now, though, I make the most off of base au's. I can barely move a gold au. I like to pick up the recent chrome au's of guys that sell for a buck (and have s/h lower than $3) cause I know I can sell them 3 for $20 in my own back yard all day (and one guy could pop onto the Hot Sheet like Latos did for me this year and return 5x over.) Sure I love seeing that rare card come out of a pack, but I only buy heavy into a couple of guys and usually those are the guys that bust! haha!

 

[rainmanesq]

Some of the posts in this thread are cracking me up. Their are some inflated craniums floating around. LOL

Lol joe, we all know you’re THE prospecting master my prospecting just consists of bidstalking you. you buy, i buy :lol:

prospecting’s not that hard really- buy low, sell high, don’t be greedy, take emotion out of it, know when to hold, know when to fold, realize you’ll be wrong sometimes (+ ideally, ADMIT IT), realize you can’t always time the market perfectly, realize you’ll miss out on some prospects, know that your inventory is NOT ‘profit/$ in the bank’ until it’s SOLD, know that it takes more than 1 blingy card to be a prospector, realize that success is a combo of skill, luck, + randomness, etc. most of all, do your own research (+ no, it’s NOT that hard + it’s not some great secret that only the jedis know).