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Topnotchsy
Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
- Aug 7, 2008
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It's been a while since we had a good HOF conversation...
HITTERS
Locks (HOF if they retired today)
Albert Pujols - MVP's, 3 homers away from 600 and should reach 3000 hits early next season. 1st ballot
Miguel Cabrera - 2 MVP's, triple crown, 450+ homers and 2500+ hits. 1st ballot
Ichiro Suzuki - 3000+ hits (in the US), 10 straight 200 hit seasons. IMO his true value is less than the perception because he didn't walk and had almost no power (career OPS 107) but he'll still be 1st ballot.
Adrian Beltre - little more than an average offensive player until he turned 30, something changed in his age 31 season. First 12 seasons he got MVP votes once. After that he's had votes in 7 straight seasons. Just 58 hits from 3000.
Carlos Beltran - 2600+ hits, 1500+ runs and RBI, 425+ homers, 300+ stolen bases.
Robinson Cano - Compare to Morgan, Alomar and Sandberg at the position. He should finish his career as a "no-doubt" HOFer. I feel like he's already there
League of their own
Mike Trout - Needs to reach 10 years to meet MLB requirements for the Hall. 5 seasons, 5 top-2 MVP finishes, 5-time leader in WAR.
2-3 more seasons needed
Chase Utley - Was probably the best 2nd baseman in baseball for half a decade, but played his first full season at 26 and so does not have the counting stats. Given that it's unlikely that he will do much more and may not even reach 2000 hits, it seems unlikely he will make the Hall.
Joe Mauer - MVP, 3-time batting title as a catcher. That alone may be enough for him to get in but I feel like 2000 career hits will definitely help his case (he's at 1800+)
Joey Votto - MVP, 5 time OBP leader (13th best all-time). As modern metrics have highlighted the importance of OBP, this should help Votto immensely. Missed time due to injury and doesn't even have 1500 hits yet, but I believe that he will make the Hall.
Dustin Pedroia - ROY, MVP (probably undeserved). Pedroia combines solid hitting, great defense and heart. I don't think he'll have enough to make the Hall, but it will depend how much longer he can play. 3 really solid seasons might do it, but he might need more than that.
David Wright - Best hitter in Mets history? Unfortunately spinal stenosis will almost definitely prevent him from putting together the few seasons he would need to be considered for the Hall.
3-5 more seasons needed
Evan Longoria - Still just 31 and had a resurgent season last year. Approaching 250 homers. He'll likely need 3-5 solid seasons for consideration
Andrew McCutchen - MVP, 3 time top-3 finish in MVP voting. 30 years old, but the last season and a half have been an almost unprecedented decline.
Ryan Braun - MVP, .300+ batting average and almost 300 homeruns at age 33. His chances will hinge as much on how people view steroids as his final numbers
Buster Posey - ROY, MVP, batting title as a catcher and leader of a team that won 3 WS. Having a great season at age 30, but counting stats still quite low (just passed 1000 hits and barely passed 100 homeruns.)
Great Start
Giancarlo Stanton - 200+ homeruns and he's just 27. Interestingly, he has never hit 40 homeruns yet, though that seems inevitable if he can stay healthy.
Bryce Harper - Just 24 years old but already a ROY and MVP, and his MVP season was one of the greatest seasons in history. 4-time all-star and this season is looking a lot like his MVP season.
Manny Machado - 2 top-5 MVP finishes and he's only 24.
Nolan Arenado - Just 26. 2 straight seasons leading the league in home runs, RBI and total bases.
PITCHERS
The previous era was either one with a dearth of great pitchers, or we may need to rethink what a HOF pitcher is. This will be clearly illustrated by comparing how many hitters are already HOF-worthy and/or are on their way...
Locks (HOF if they retired today)
Clayton Kershaw - Buster Olney wrote an article saying Kershaw is an MVP without throwing another pitch. I've long felt that Johan Santana deserves far more HOF consideration than anyone else seems to think for his short but dominant peak. Kershaw already has a longer and more dominant peak than Santana has. Despite just 8 full seasons (and parts of 2 more), Kershaw is a HOFer
2-3 more seasons needed
CC Sabathia - Only Bartolo Colon and Sabathia have more than 200 career wins (among active players). W-L % over .600. Cy Young winner. Career ERA is not very impressive (3.71) but if he can reach 250 wins (he has 228 now) I think he might warrant consideration
Justin Verlander - Last season's 2nd-place finish in the Cy Young was a welcome sight. 170+ wins, Cy Young and ROY awards in his trophy chest.
3-5 more seasons needed
Zack Greinke - Cy Young. Overall very solid pitcher who had 2 transcendent seasons (including a season with a 1.66 ERA which he did not win the Cy Young). If he has 3 more great seasons and passes 200 homers I think he has a reasonable shot
Felix Hernandez - Seems like he's been pitching forever but he's just 31. Cy Young, 2-#2 finishes. Been roughly a league-average pitcher the last couple of seasons. Needs to reinvent himself and have a few more really solid seasons to be considered.
Jon Lester - Cancer survivor, big part of the Red Sox and Cubs Championships. Has really come into his own over the last few seasons as 2014 and 2016 were arguably his 2 best seasons.
Max Scherzer - 2 Cy Young Awards (in the last 4 seasons). Was basically a .500 pitcher until 27, so he has some catching up to do, but he's been great for half a decade now.
David Price - Won a Cy Young and 2 other top-2 finishes but entering his 31 season he only has 121 wins (with just 65 loses.) Probably needs 5 really solid seasons before real consideration.
Great Start
Chris Sale - Career ERA under 3. 5 straight All-Star Games and 5 straight seasons with a top 6 finish in Cy Young voting (although he's never finished top-2). Great start to this season, but doesn't even have 80 wins, so he's a long way away.
Madison Bumgarner - Career ERA under 3. 100 wins at age 27. Dominant playoff resume.
HITTERS
Locks (HOF if they retired today)
Albert Pujols - MVP's, 3 homers away from 600 and should reach 3000 hits early next season. 1st ballot
Miguel Cabrera - 2 MVP's, triple crown, 450+ homers and 2500+ hits. 1st ballot
Ichiro Suzuki - 3000+ hits (in the US), 10 straight 200 hit seasons. IMO his true value is less than the perception because he didn't walk and had almost no power (career OPS 107) but he'll still be 1st ballot.
Adrian Beltre - little more than an average offensive player until he turned 30, something changed in his age 31 season. First 12 seasons he got MVP votes once. After that he's had votes in 7 straight seasons. Just 58 hits from 3000.
Carlos Beltran - 2600+ hits, 1500+ runs and RBI, 425+ homers, 300+ stolen bases.
Robinson Cano - Compare to Morgan, Alomar and Sandberg at the position. He should finish his career as a "no-doubt" HOFer. I feel like he's already there
League of their own
Mike Trout - Needs to reach 10 years to meet MLB requirements for the Hall. 5 seasons, 5 top-2 MVP finishes, 5-time leader in WAR.
2-3 more seasons needed
Chase Utley - Was probably the best 2nd baseman in baseball for half a decade, but played his first full season at 26 and so does not have the counting stats. Given that it's unlikely that he will do much more and may not even reach 2000 hits, it seems unlikely he will make the Hall.
Joe Mauer - MVP, 3-time batting title as a catcher. That alone may be enough for him to get in but I feel like 2000 career hits will definitely help his case (he's at 1800+)
Joey Votto - MVP, 5 time OBP leader (13th best all-time). As modern metrics have highlighted the importance of OBP, this should help Votto immensely. Missed time due to injury and doesn't even have 1500 hits yet, but I believe that he will make the Hall.
Dustin Pedroia - ROY, MVP (probably undeserved). Pedroia combines solid hitting, great defense and heart. I don't think he'll have enough to make the Hall, but it will depend how much longer he can play. 3 really solid seasons might do it, but he might need more than that.
David Wright - Best hitter in Mets history? Unfortunately spinal stenosis will almost definitely prevent him from putting together the few seasons he would need to be considered for the Hall.
3-5 more seasons needed
Evan Longoria - Still just 31 and had a resurgent season last year. Approaching 250 homers. He'll likely need 3-5 solid seasons for consideration
Andrew McCutchen - MVP, 3 time top-3 finish in MVP voting. 30 years old, but the last season and a half have been an almost unprecedented decline.
Ryan Braun - MVP, .300+ batting average and almost 300 homeruns at age 33. His chances will hinge as much on how people view steroids as his final numbers
Buster Posey - ROY, MVP, batting title as a catcher and leader of a team that won 3 WS. Having a great season at age 30, but counting stats still quite low (just passed 1000 hits and barely passed 100 homeruns.)
Great Start
Giancarlo Stanton - 200+ homeruns and he's just 27. Interestingly, he has never hit 40 homeruns yet, though that seems inevitable if he can stay healthy.
Bryce Harper - Just 24 years old but already a ROY and MVP, and his MVP season was one of the greatest seasons in history. 4-time all-star and this season is looking a lot like his MVP season.
Manny Machado - 2 top-5 MVP finishes and he's only 24.
Nolan Arenado - Just 26. 2 straight seasons leading the league in home runs, RBI and total bases.
PITCHERS
The previous era was either one with a dearth of great pitchers, or we may need to rethink what a HOF pitcher is. This will be clearly illustrated by comparing how many hitters are already HOF-worthy and/or are on their way...
Locks (HOF if they retired today)
Clayton Kershaw - Buster Olney wrote an article saying Kershaw is an MVP without throwing another pitch. I've long felt that Johan Santana deserves far more HOF consideration than anyone else seems to think for his short but dominant peak. Kershaw already has a longer and more dominant peak than Santana has. Despite just 8 full seasons (and parts of 2 more), Kershaw is a HOFer
2-3 more seasons needed
CC Sabathia - Only Bartolo Colon and Sabathia have more than 200 career wins (among active players). W-L % over .600. Cy Young winner. Career ERA is not very impressive (3.71) but if he can reach 250 wins (he has 228 now) I think he might warrant consideration
Justin Verlander - Last season's 2nd-place finish in the Cy Young was a welcome sight. 170+ wins, Cy Young and ROY awards in his trophy chest.
3-5 more seasons needed
Zack Greinke - Cy Young. Overall very solid pitcher who had 2 transcendent seasons (including a season with a 1.66 ERA which he did not win the Cy Young). If he has 3 more great seasons and passes 200 homers I think he has a reasonable shot
Felix Hernandez - Seems like he's been pitching forever but he's just 31. Cy Young, 2-#2 finishes. Been roughly a league-average pitcher the last couple of seasons. Needs to reinvent himself and have a few more really solid seasons to be considered.
Jon Lester - Cancer survivor, big part of the Red Sox and Cubs Championships. Has really come into his own over the last few seasons as 2014 and 2016 were arguably his 2 best seasons.
Max Scherzer - 2 Cy Young Awards (in the last 4 seasons). Was basically a .500 pitcher until 27, so he has some catching up to do, but he's been great for half a decade now.
David Price - Won a Cy Young and 2 other top-2 finishes but entering his 31 season he only has 121 wins (with just 65 loses.) Probably needs 5 really solid seasons before real consideration.
Great Start
Chris Sale - Career ERA under 3. 5 straight All-Star Games and 5 straight seasons with a top 6 finish in Cy Young voting (although he's never finished top-2). Great start to this season, but doesn't even have 80 wins, so he's a long way away.
Madison Bumgarner - Career ERA under 3. 100 wins at age 27. Dominant playoff resume.
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