Will Ubaldo Jimenez win 25+ games in 2010

[matfanofold]

I have to say no... Why?

Because it's just too hard to do these days, and I have to go with that.

I look at it like this. If a batter is hitting the ball extremely well the first 1/3'rd of the year and has 24 or 25 HR's, sure he is on pace for 75 +/- but what are the odds that he continues that kind of consistant production for the whole year? What are the chances he will even break 60? 50? It's just too hard to remain consistantly dominant for a whole year. And it's even tougher with pitchers. Sure he is on 'pace' to win 30 or so, but thats just a bit more improbable than 25 to me. In order to win 25 games you simply have to be lucky(and dominant the whole season) You have to be lucky enough for your team to score atleast a few runs to cover what you may give up in 25 games, thats luck. You have to be lucky that your BP does not blow too many games, and thats luck. You have to be lucky enough that the team behind you is not making the bone head mistakes that give up runs that happen to all teams at some point, durring the games you are pitching.

Having said all of that, he is pitching amazingly well this year and I could see him win 20+ if he continues to dominate the way he has. It's just I think there is too many ways a quality start can be lost despite the quality outing to predict anyone can win 25 games a season after only 1/3'rd of the way through. Just like I would never predict someone hitting 75 HR's 1/3'rd of the way through. Although, I must say, it's not impossible! If anyone can do it, it's performances like his that will get it done! I wish him luck!

 

[rsmath]

I said no because season grind, heat, altitude, and maybe even the Rockies limiting his IP to protect him if they choose to do that will eventually affect him.

 

[RL24]

Hi Guys! :lol: It's me, the guy who made the comment about luck and then left you all to fight it out.


I am a CC Sabathia fan, and have always cheered for him to get 20 Wins in a season. He never has. When he loses 1-0, it's easy to say he shouldn't have let up that run, it's his fault that he didn't win. But it would be nice if your team can score a couple for ya. And when he leaves the game with the lead, and the bull pen blows it, it's easy to say he shouldn't have thrown so many pitches and should have gone the whole 9 innings. But y'know, it just gets frustrating year after year looking back at how he should have won 22 or 23 games, but... simply didn't.

Here is my favorite example showing why it will be difficult for Ubaldo to win 25 games.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 6100.shtml

CC's line looked like this: 9 IP, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 SO

Looks like a 3 hit complete game shutout, right? You can't possibly ask for more from your starting pitcher than that. Of course, at the end of 9 it was tied 0-0, and the Tribe went on to lose 1-0 in the 12th. ::facepalm:: So he did not get the CG or the Shutout, but most importantly, he didn't get the Win. And then... and then... AND THEN!!! He finished the year with 19 Wins. :benson:



So that is what I mean when I say it takes luck to win a game. Because you can go out there and throw 9 innings of perfect game baseball, and still not get a W.

I wasn't even thinking that Ubaldo's great performance this year has been based at all on luck. It's the 12 W's that took luck. My friends just went and saw him the other night, and I told them they were going to see the hottest baseball player on the planet right now. They dressed for the heat, but they got rain and sleet and frozen wind. But Ubaldo still got the W!

 

[Topnotchsy]

Thanks for posting those links.

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with what you call "luck". When you average less than 1 run per start, have an ERA around 1, a WHIP less than 1, and throw 100 mph, it isn't luck. If you look at each individual outing, he'd be unlucky to lose any of those.

With that being said, I still don't think he'll maintain these number (they're already getting a little worse). He's bound to have a bad outing eventually. The HR/FB percentage (mentioned in the article) is something that will eventually come back to earth too.

Point is that he's lucky to have an ERA so low. People with his WHIP generally have much higher ERA's. (Other stats indicate the same.)

After a little research, that's very true
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leade ... ason.shtml
ERA might be a little lucky due to his WHIP

What I have trouble calling him lucky about is his number of wins
http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=28625
All of these starts are going to win 70% (most recent start) to 100% (complete game shutouts) of the time (estimates obviously).

Even with those numbers luck has definitely played a role. He has not had a single no-decision this season. The pen has not blown one game for him yet.

 

[Topnotchsy]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... ?eref=sihp