matfanofold
Active member
- Aug 10, 2008
- 7,645
- 1
I have to say no... Why?
Because it's just too hard to do these days, and I have to go with that.
I look at it like this. If a batter is hitting the ball extremely well the first 1/3'rd of the year and has 24 or 25 HR's, sure he is on pace for 75 +/- but what are the odds that he continues that kind of consistant production for the whole year? What are the chances he will even break 60? 50? It's just too hard to remain consistantly dominant for a whole year. And it's even tougher with pitchers. Sure he is on 'pace' to win 30 or so, but thats just a bit more improbable than 25 to me. In order to win 25 games you simply have to be lucky(and dominant the whole season) You have to be lucky enough for your team to score atleast a few runs to cover what you may give up in 25 games, thats luck. You have to be lucky that your BP does not blow too many games, and thats luck. You have to be lucky enough that the team behind you is not making the bone head mistakes that give up runs that happen to all teams at some point, durring the games you are pitching.
Having said all of that, he is pitching amazingly well this year and I could see him win 20+ if he continues to dominate the way he has. It's just I think there is too many ways a quality start can be lost despite the quality outing to predict anyone can win 25 games a season after only 1/3'rd of the way through. Just like I would never predict someone hitting 75 HR's 1/3'rd of the way through. Although, I must say, it's not impossible! If anyone can do it, it's performances like his that will get it done! I wish him luck!
Because it's just too hard to do these days, and I have to go with that.
I look at it like this. If a batter is hitting the ball extremely well the first 1/3'rd of the year and has 24 or 25 HR's, sure he is on pace for 75 +/- but what are the odds that he continues that kind of consistant production for the whole year? What are the chances he will even break 60? 50? It's just too hard to remain consistantly dominant for a whole year. And it's even tougher with pitchers. Sure he is on 'pace' to win 30 or so, but thats just a bit more improbable than 25 to me. In order to win 25 games you simply have to be lucky(and dominant the whole season) You have to be lucky enough for your team to score atleast a few runs to cover what you may give up in 25 games, thats luck. You have to be lucky that your BP does not blow too many games, and thats luck. You have to be lucky enough that the team behind you is not making the bone head mistakes that give up runs that happen to all teams at some point, durring the games you are pitching.
Having said all of that, he is pitching amazingly well this year and I could see him win 20+ if he continues to dominate the way he has. It's just I think there is too many ways a quality start can be lost despite the quality outing to predict anyone can win 25 games a season after only 1/3'rd of the way through. Just like I would never predict someone hitting 75 HR's 1/3'rd of the way through. Although, I must say, it's not impossible! If anyone can do it, it's performances like his that will get it done! I wish him luck!