HOF debate: Vladimir Guerrero

When you think Vladimir Guerrero you think hall of famer. When you take a quick glance at his stats you think hall of famer. After looking deeper into his career I'm not as certain.

pros:
.318/.379/.553
140 ops+
1 mvp
cannon for an arm
-hit .300 or better 13 times in his 15 full seasons, with his lowest batting average being .290.

cons:
Below average fielder(understatement?)
Never walked
career war of 59.9. According to baseball reference, the average war for right fielders in the hall of fame is 70.9. His WAR is lower than other outfielders like Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreu, Gary Sheffield, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Larry Walker. None of these guys are likely to make the hall of fame, though I would argue Jones, Beltran, and Walker are too quickly dismissed.

Overall I think Guerrero will get in the hall, and a lot of that will have to do with the weight his name holds as opposed to similar less exciting hitters. Not that that's fair to guys like larry walker, but that's kind of how it works. Either way, I think I would personally vote for him.

What do you guys think?

RyanHowardCollector6 said:

When you think Vladimir Guerrero you think hall of famer. When you take a quick glance at his stats you think hall of famer. After looking deeper into his career I'm not as certain.

pros:
.318/.379/.553
140 ops+
1 mvp
cannon for an arm
-hit .300 or better 13 times in his 15 full seasons, with his lowest batting average being .290.

cons:
Below average fielder(understatement?)
Never walked
career war of 59.9. According to baseball reference, the average war for right fielders in the hall of fame is 70.9. His WAR is lower than other outfielders like Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreu, Gary Sheffield, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Larry Walker. None of these guys are likely to make the hall of fame, though I would argue Jones, Beltran, and Walker are too quickly dismissed.

Overall I think Guerrero will get in the hall, and a lot of that will have to do with the weight his name holds as opposed to similar less exciting hitters. Not that that's fair to guys like larry walker, but that's kind of how it works. Either way, I think I would personally vote for him.

What do you guys think?

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I think Sheffield has a greater chance of making it than not. Jones definitely would have made it if he had more respect for the game, but the way his career has gone I don't think he deserves it.

As far as Vlad goes, the hall definitely favors offensive stats, and he was one of the best hitters in the game for about a decade. I can see him getting in, but probably after a handful of years. He definitely goes in behind a guy like Sheffield though. And, you're right in that his defense was atrocious

Errors Committed as RF (s.1954) s c a p y
1997 NL 12 (1st)
1998 NL 17 (1st)
1999 NL 19 (1st)
2000 NL 10 (1st)
2001 NL 12 (1st)
2002 NL 10 (1st)
2003 NL 7 (1st)
2004 AL 9 (2nd)
2006 AL 11 (1st)
2007 AL 9 (1st)
2008 AL 4 (2nd)
Career 125 (5th)

No on Vlad. Hall of very good. Yes. Hall of fame. No.

Guerrero shouldn't be punished for playing on bad teams. Also Sheffield and Walker should be in and Andruw Jones should never be considered. Anyone who lets themselves get that fat and lazy like he did in his last Atlanta years shouldn't get into the hall of fame.

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No on vladdy

Yes on Vlad....during the roughly 10 year period between 97-2008 there were not many hitters as consistent as he was. He had the perfect combination of power and speed. I think people forget how fast he was early in his career before the Montreal turf wrecked his knees. I believe he was 40/40 one year..if not he only was 1 HR or SB away I can't remember. He was one of the most feared hitters in the game (don't believe me, he led the league in IBB's 5 times between 2000-2008), and one that pitchers hated to face because of his ability to hit bad-balls. No he didn't walk a lot but he didn't strike out a lot either (roughly 1/2 as many K's as Mantle). He is also one of the rare power hitters from his era who never had steroid questions swirling around. Also if you want to talk about the errors you must also talk about his 130 outfield assists, which was more than any other active player when he was playing. 9 all star games, 10 straight years of receiving MVP votes, career WORST average was .290 (that's pretty good), 30-30 twice, hit over .320 7 times, 35+ HR's 5 times, 409 career doubles, an extra base machine. He also has as many silver slugger awards as Ripken and as many MVP's as Babe Ruth

Think about this. Think about Mike Trout's amazing statistical season last year, Vladdy had 4 seasons statistically better than that....4!!! Yeah he's a hall of famer, first ballot probably.

Not so sure about Vlad

Easily the best player of his generation that didn't wear batting gloves.

jbhofmann said:

Easily the best player of his generation that didn't wear batting gloves.

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LOL


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RyanHowardCollector6 said:

...
career war of 59.9. According to baseball reference, the average war for right fielders in the hall of fame is 70.9. His WAR is lower than other outfielders like Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreu, Gary Sheffield, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Larry Walker. None of these guys are likely to make the hall of fame, though I would argue Jones, Beltran, and Walker are too quickly dismissed.

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If you look more closely at his WAR, his 7-year peak WAR puts him in a better light:
Right Field (19th), 59.9 career WAR/41.2 7yr-peak WAR/50.6 JAWS
Average HOF RF (out of 23) = 70.9 career WAR/42.0 7yr-peak WAR/56.4 JAWS

So his 7 year peak war is pretty much HOF average.

This just means other HOF right fielders were a little better for a little longer, but in his prime Vlad was pretty much an equal.

He seems more worthy than the 'hall of very good', especially given he received serious MVP votes a dozen of his 16 years - 2.94 Career Shares (34th). I'd say he deserves to get in.

I think this contextualizes what a lot of people think when they remember Vlad Guerrero and say, "Oh yeah, he's a Hall of Famer. Easy." One of the best players in the league for a good period of time, with solid longevity=HOF in my book.

uniquebaseballcards said:

If you look more closely at his WAR, his 7-year peak WAR puts him in a better light:
Right Field (19th), 59.9 career WAR/41.2 7yr-peak WAR/50.6 JAWS
Average HOF RF (out of 23) = 70.9 career WAR/42.0 7yr-peak WAR/56.4 JAWS

So his 7 year peak war is pretty much HOF average.

This just means other HOF right fielders were a little better for a little longer, but in his prime Vlad was pretty much an equal.

He seems more worthy than the 'hall of very good', especially given he received serious MVP votes a dozen of his 16 years - 2.94 Career Shares (34th). I'd say he deserves to get in.

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Dale Murphy, Albert belle were beasts for a decade also. They are not getting in then Vlad will be out also.

kerryfan5 said:

Dale Murphy, Albert belle were beasts for a decade also. They are not getting in then Vlad will be out also.

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Belle lost out, but not because of his stats - if he had an ordinary temperament he'd be in.

Vlad compared to others his age:

I think he passes the sniff test. He was dominant for a good period of time. He's often referred to as "the best bad ball hitter ever" by many in the press. I think when you can be thought of as "the best" anything positive in baseball history, that gives you a leg up with voters. A lot of times, the baseball HOF is about seperating yourself from the rest of your all-star peers, even if it is perception.

kerryfan5 said:

Dale Murphy, Albert belle were beasts for a decade also. They are not getting in then Vlad will be out also.

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Dale Murphy was like a .260 Career hitter but he did have a better glove. But c'mon .260

kerryfan5 said:

Dale Murphy, Albert belle were beasts for a decade also. They are not getting in then Vlad will be out also.

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THIS

uniquebaseballcards said:

Belle lost out, but not because of his stats - if he had an ordinary temperament he'd be in.

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Hit the nail on the head.

Si

I cant even believe this is even questionable! Theres already been enough said on why he will make the Hof but i will point out 2 more things in his favor:


Guerrero joined Lou Gehrig as the only two players to hit at least .300 and have at least 25 homers for 11 straight seasons.

Also I believe from 2000-2009 or 1999-2008 Himself and Albert Pujols were the only 2 player in the top 10 in every offensive statistical category

I honestly thing he is first ballot material but i realistically think he will get in second ballot.


Chippers and Vlads numbers are similar and no one is questioning Chippers candidacy. Infact Vlads ending numbers are better or almost better than Chippers with 3 less years. The one thing Chipper has over Vlad is being on the same team his whole career and Braves were Great for many years but that was a result of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz and not Chipper himself.

He will get in.

Non HOF with better All-Time Batting HOF monitor scores (Baseball reference)
A-rod
Bonds
Jeter
Rose
Pujols
Griffey
Manny
Pudge
Ichiro

So basically everyone above him is either in, will be in, or might not make it because of extenuating circumstances