Heritage High Autographs

After several days of being live, I'm surprised at how few Heritage High Autos have been posted or sold on eBay. As discussed in other threads, the print run is obviously up from last year which has dampened enthusiasm. IMO the auto checklist is deeper but that hasn't seemed to matter. Some are probably holding sealed sets for a bit but the market seems to have granted its verdict.

I did a quick, unscientific tally of the current and sold listings and break things down like this so far (categories are my opinion and based on hobby value and not necessarily how good they are or will be. You may not agree but this is how I see them and buy/sell accordingly):

Category A - Puig

Puig - 1

Category B - Upper Tier

Machado - 2
Profar - 1
Fernandez - 1
Myers - 2

Category C - Almost Upper Tier except they are pitchers not named Fernandez

Miller - 3
Cole - 4

Category D - Middle Tier (at least in terms of selling price)

Zunino - 6
Gattis - 5
Bradley - 1
Rendon 4
Fujikawa - 6

Category E - Investment Potential (have the talent to potentially spike down the road)

Gausman - 7
Hicks - 3
Cingrani - 7
Franklin - 3
Olt 2

Category F - Dogs (yes, some of these guys might end up regular big leaguers but the chances these autos ever exceed $10-$15 are slim. Ruf has been selling in the $15 range and will probably be the guy some folks disagree about. But I wouldn't want to pull him)

Rondon - 12
Ruf - 10
Maurer - 12
Eaton - 7
Gregorius - 5
Hechavarria - 10
Kelly - 9
Paco Rodriguez - 8
Ozuna - 9

Category X - No base autos listed or sold to date

Ryu (have seen a couple reds)
Gyorko (have seen a red)
Adams
Arenado
Arcia
Z. Wheeler (have seen a red)

So out of 140 that I counted, I would put the odds of pulling a top tier guy (including Cole and Miller) at about 10%. This is probably around 5% of the print run if the estimates we've seen are accurate so 140 is statistically significant. And the odds of pulling a guy selling in the $5 - $15 range are at least 75% and possibly higher depending on where the Category D guys fall out.

At this point, it seems possible at least some of the Category X guys do not have blue autos or if they do, their print runs are along the lines of Machado, Profar, and Fernandez. The biggest name from that list is either Ryu or Wheeler with the others being at least solid in terms of current value or future potential. So if they were in fact produced, I would up the odds slightly of pulling at least decent value.

Overall, the odds are definitely long from an investment perspective and there is a very intentional and obvious inverese relationship between hobby value and print run. This was also the case last year so it is not surprising at all but this puts it in perspective some and the jump in production coupled with Puig/Machado < Harper/Darvish in the market's eyes seem to have ensured there wouldn't be a repeat of last year's impact.

Very good information.

I only opened one set and pulled a Paco Rodriguez. I should have read this post before opening.

Great post

I pulled a regular Hicks - I'm an OCD set collector, so I have a pathological need to enrich Topps by buying this crap. I should also try the Powerball odds are probably similar.

tribefan26 said:

I pulled a regular Hicks - I'm an OCD set collector, so I have a pathological need to enrich Topps by buying this crap. I should also try the Powerball odds are probably similar.

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I still think the sets will have value down the road. Even if the print run was cranked to ~2500 as has been surmised, that is still relatively low compared to other products and there are a lot of really strong RC's in the checklist. Several of the base cards could end up in the $10-$15 range with the Machado and Puig having the potential to be a good bit higher. Nothing as high as Harper from last year obviously but still some opportunity there.

It is definitely discouraging the way the auto print runs are playing out. I understand shorting a few guys but did all of the top guys have to end up that way? But at the same time, a 10-20% chance of pulling a strong auto isn't that much different than busting a box of Draft. And the base cards actually have upside here.

If Topps caps the run to 2000-2500 down the line, I'll still probably buy at $100 if the checklist is solid. Now they just have to work on the packaging as it is inexcusable how many cards are getting damaged. The auto was the last card in my set and I think it is that way for all of them. At the very least, they should bury the auto but is it really that hard to protect the cards. I was lucky enough to pull a Machado red auto and double so in that it wasn't damaged. Gattis was the first card in my box and three corners are pretty banged up.

"I still think the sets will have value down the road."

are you talking about unsealed sets due to all the redemptions?

craftysouthpaw said:

I still think the sets will have value down the road. Even if the print run was cranked to ~2500 as has been surmised, that is still relatively low compared to other products and there are a lot of really strong RC's in the checklist. Several of the base cards could end up in the $10-$15 range with the Machado and Puig having the potential to be a good bit higher. Nothing as high as Harper from last year obviously but still some opportunity there.

It is definitely discouraging the way the auto print runs are playing out. I understand shorting a few guys but did all of the top guys have to end up that way? But at the same time, a 10-20% chance of pulling a strong auto isn't that much different than busting a box of Draft. And the base cards actually have upside here.

If Topps caps the run to 2000-2500 down the line, I'll still probably buy at $100 if the checklist is solid. Now they just have to work on the packaging as it is inexcusable how many cards are getting damaged. The auto was the last card in my set and I think it is that way for all of them. At the very least, they should bury the auto but is it really that hard to protect the cards. I was lucky enough to pull a Machado red auto and double so in that it wasn't damaged. Gattis was the first card in my box and three corners are pretty banged up.

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B&B along with others have been saying that they think the print run is more towards the 7,000-7,500 range.

I'm not even close to a Topps basher like some others but Topps screwed the pooch on this and there really isn't any way of sugar coating it.

i wonder what Topps will do with the left over redemption autos.

ThoseBackPages said:

i wonder what Topps will do with the left over redemption autos.

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2014 Heritage Buybacks

duh

LOL

ThoseBackPages said:

"I still think the sets will have value down the road."

are you talking about unsealed sets due to all the redemptions?

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Was more referring to the base sets. But if the print run is truly 7000-7500, I retract that statement. I'd like to say that is unbelievable if true, but unfortunately it isn't. And B&B is as good of a source as any. Although that makes the relative lack of listings even more surprising to me.

There is a fine line between making money and keeping customers happy and Topps consistently destroys that line. At least this time, it is themselves they might screw since they sold direct. Someone who has taken Economics 101 needs to show them a supply and demand curve but given they have typically been able to offload the risk to the distributors, they've never needed to worry about that.

As an aside, a Wheeler and Gyorko blue were listed last night. First ones I've seen.

craftysouthpaw said:

Was more referring to the base sets. But if the print run is truly 7000-7500, I retract that statement. I'd like to say that is unbelievable if true, but unfortunately it isn't. And B&B is as good of a source as any. Although that makes the relative lack of listings even more surprising to me.

There is a fine line between making money and keeping customers happy and Topps consistently destroys that line. At least this time, it is themselves they might screw since they sold direct. Someone who has taken Economics 101 needs to show them a supply and demand curve but given they have typically been able to offload the risk to the distributors, they've never needed to worry about that.

As an aside, a Wheeler and Gyorko blue were listed last night. First ones I've seen.

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I believe B&B was making that assumption based on the one red autograph per case. I have seen multiple breaks where people opening 3+ sets have been pulling reds so the two cases they opened may not be reflective of the entire product.

i doubt the run is 7K, that just seems too high. 5K is more likely and is a nicer round number. Regardless, Topps is resting on the success of last years release. i will add the base set to my collection eventually, but i have no interest in paying $50 for it when i paid $135 for the Master Set.