Holding on to the past

[mrmopar]

I guess in a collecting world where we now and frequently over value prospects to the extreme (3-4 or MORE figures for guys who have never played a game yet), it shouldn't surprise me that we almost never let those dreams (and cards) go after some of the bigger hyped players never really pan out. Worse are the guys who had a small taste of success and then fizzled, yet "we" continue to pay unexplainable rates for their cards if we grow tired of waiting for what should be the inevitable that never comes.

I liked to use Yasiel Puig as my perfect example when I was trying to land his autograph. Even to this day, Puig autographs will commonly sell for much more than they should if you are just looking at his impact and stats. He played 7 years and had 834 H, 132 HR, 415 RBI and hit .277. Stephen Strasberg is another. fine example He sniffed some solid success for a brief moment. 113-62, 3.24, 1733 K in 13 years. Does his career warrant $30-50 autographs? I say not.

Share some of your frustrations, under the assumption that you are trying to land cards of players that just never seem to come down in price, yet even the most unreasonable person would probably agree with you that they should. If you are holding these cards, waiting for the right time to maximize your sales, might I ask when you think that time will be? At their death?

 

[Dilferules]

Addison Russell. He was a top prospect in the A's minor league system and was traded to the Cubs where he was okay (more value on defense than offense) for four and a half seasons. He's been playing in Korea and Mexico since 2020. Oh and he had a 40-game MLB suspension for domestic violence, so it's unlikely another major league team will give him a real shot, especially since he turns 30 this off-season and wasn't a real impact player when he was on the field. I could use some of his Bowman Chrome color refractors for team sets but anybody selling them is still looking for top prospect prices.

 

[smapdi]

If values for guys like Puig and Strasburg are still strong, I view that as a good thing. It means they have attracted fans who care for them beyond the prospecting stage and are genuinely collecting them and paying competitive prices for them. I see the same thing with Grady Sizemore. It very rare these days that I will find on ebay a card that I don't have, but I will add notable ones to my watchlist out of curiosity. Every once in a while I will throw a bid on ones I would not mind owning doubles of, or is a better version of my copy, but I'm past hoarding his stuff. Often, the good cards sell for a surprising amount, if not what I paid for my copy. It would make me sad if every Sizemore card I paid top dollar for was now available for a huge discount.

While the pandemic hobby has warped pricing and people who have been collecting a long time could rightly view $20 for this card or $50 for that card as more than they "should" be worth, the truth is if the market will bear that value, then that's what the value is (aka "It's worth what someone will pay for it."). But if people are listing a long-faded prospect for peak-heat pricing, then that's just people "holding onto the past" and refusing to take the loss.

 

[mrmopar]

I have seen Garvey cards in the last couple years sell for much more than I think is reasonable, after a long time where I could nearly predict the market on any of his new cards as soon as they dropped. While I myself have backed away from super aggressive buying of everything and another newish buyer has stepped way up, there are enough unknowns bidding now that I can no longer predict what one will sell for with a reasonable accuracy. However, I am fairly confident that if I dropped out completely, the market would soften dramatically. This worries me that all those cards I had to do battle for against other rabid players collectors, most of who have dropped out by now, will not bring anywhere near what I paid for them. That was never the goal, but reality is setting in that nobody is going to want my collection in my family, so I need to prepare for ultimately selling. The fanbase doesn't really seem to be growing for a still alive, long retired, on the fence HOF candidate and one that has embarrassed his once clean image on more than one occasion.

 

[Dilferules]

If values for guys like Puig and Strasburg are still strong, I view that as a good thing. It means they have attracted fans who care for them beyond the prospecting stage and are genuinely collecting them and paying competitive prices for them. I see the same thing with Grady Sizemore. It very rare these days that I will find on ebay a card that I don't have, but I will add notable ones to my watchlist out of curiosity. Every once in a while I will throw a bid on ones I would not mind owning doubles of, or is a better version of my copy, but I'm past hoarding his stuff. Often, the good cards sell for a surprising amount, if not what I paid for my copy. It would make me sad if every Sizemore card I paid top dollar for was now available for a huge discount.

While the pandemic hobby has warped pricing and people who have been collecting a long time could rightly view $20 for this card or $50 for that card as more than they "should" be worth, the truth is if the market will bear that value, then that's what the value is (aka "It's worth what someone will pay for it."). But if people are listing a long-faded prospect for peak-heat pricing, then that's just people "holding onto the past" and refusing to take the loss.

I absolutely agree in cases where a guys cards actually sell for surprisingly higher than you would think they would. The market sets the value, not strictly player performance. I was thinking more along the lines of sellers always being unrealistic with particular players...like if a card was listed as a 99 cent starting bid auction and it would sell for $15, but all the sellers with BINs are trying to get $150 because they are living in the past.

 

[DaClyde]

I want to collect Billy Hamilton. I can't see a reason for ANY Billy Hamilton card to sell for more than $10-15, so I will probably never seriously collect Billy Hamilton. I may just have to collect Donell Nixon, instead.

 

[gitarst182]

For me it's Kyle Seager and Brian McCann. Kyle was a staple in Seattle for many years, he was never the best, or great but good. His cards still command (mainly BIN) high prices imo, and all I want is a nice card of his. Though I can't see myself spending hundreds of dollars on a high end patch or auto. I will keep scouring for someone starting a bid at 0.99.

The other is Brian McCann. Another player who was good, I wouldn't say great, for the Braves, Astros and Yankees. I would love a nice patch/auto of his because I was always a fan but I can't bring myself to hit a high BIN with a "Best Offer" option that is always declined because I am not offering a dollar less than a $100+ BIN.

My perspective on these players, because not a lot comes through bidding, it's mainly high BIN's, is sellers just holding so they can make something back from an investment they may have made or a high price they initially paid.