Prospectors and/or baseball fans

kentuckyderby · Jan 6, 2010

As I looked thru the list of names of former players on the H of F ballot it got me thinking

How would you feel as a fan and/or prospector if your team's draft pick turned out to have a Mike Cameron career? How about a Tim Raines career? How about a Willie McGee career?

For example, if D Tate lasts as long as Chet Lemon did in the majors, would that be a successful career?

How about if Desmond Jennings puts up a Willie McGee or Mike Cameron career?
Would that be considered fine or is that an underachieving career?

I understand part of prospecting and the business side of the hobby is that you shoot for the stars and have to pimp your guy but not all players are going to be Griffey.

I would love to see the day I see auctiona that read:

"Up for auction is a Desmond Jennings Chrome auto. Jennings might be as good as Ron Leflore, Tim Raines or Mike Cameron one day."

"Up for auction is a Tyler Matzek chrome auto. Tyler might one day have numbers that surpass Cubs/Giants picther Rick Rueschel."

Might sound kind of goofy but those players used in the examples had decent careers and even made some all star games/ won post season awards / lead league in certain categories

I have plenty of Max Scherzer cards and have him on a few of my keeper dynasty fantasy teams, should I be bummed or satisfied if he has career #s equal to Frank Tanana or Mike Scott? Would you be satisfied with a Frank Tanana rookie card?

Jaypers · Jan 6, 2010

Most prospectors part with their cards before a player's first year in the Majors has concluded, let alone their whole career.

ajbraves25 · Jan 6, 2010

I collect Justin Reed of the Reds. In no way is he even the slightest high prospect, but I like him and any career in the bigs will be successful to him and for me. I just want to watch him play if he ever gets the call..

Still searching for the Red Refractor auto and the Superfractor of him. Can't seem to find them.

~AJ

hive17 · Jan 6, 2010

What you're referring to is the vast gulf between perception and reality in the prospecting world. The people who can make money deal with the perception side of it; the people who the prospectors make money off of deal with the reality side of it.

kentuckyderby · Jan 6, 2010

Jaypers said:
Most prospectors part with their cards before a player's first year in the Majors has concluded, let alone their whole career.

True but SOMEONE buys them.
It just me thinking about the expectations we have for our BDP/EEE autos

My dad coached Ron Coomer and CoomDawg had a nice career. Worked his butt off, became a solid hitter, lasted a good # of years playing for a handful of organizations, heck even made an all-star team. We followed him and are proud of his accomplishments. Some of you possibly never heard of the dude or would rather have an auto of Pete Rose Jr or John Shelby's boy than Coomer. That's fine. I guess my question would have to be broken into two parts to be answered fairly (expectations as a fan and expectations as an investor) and even then might be too difficult of a question to answer.

As these autos are being sold and bought for nice bank in late December and early January every year, will fans/collectors be fine if:
Posey puts up Mike Scosscia #s
Jared Mitchell puts up Randy Winn #s
Zachary Wheeler puts up Dave Steib #s
Tyler Matzek puts up Mark Langston #s
Serling Castro puts up Ronnie Belliard #s

subject to change · Jan 6, 2010

As a team collector and diehard Pirates fan, the intersection of prospecting and current/former big leaguers is an interesting line. As someone who follows the club from the majors to rookie ball, and has both the major league and AA club within driving range, I enjoy seeing players as they rise through the system, and like to pick up cards of prospects in the system. Even if they never reach Pittsburgh, most of the guys in the prospect sets at least make AA, and I enjoy having their cards as a reminder of the time I saw them play.

However, I just can't justify paying some of the prices prospect cards command. At the levels Tony Sanchez cards are currently selling, I can pick up an autograph of Ralph Kiner or Jason Bay, and in some cases, possibly both. One is a Hall of Famer, and the other the best Pirate of the past decade. In reality, Sanchez's career path would be far more likely to develop into a Terry Steinbach type of player than into a Ralph Kiner or Jason Bay type, if he even reaches the majors at all.

Mudcatsfan · Jan 6, 2010

I still contend, and have for a LONG time,

Mediocre players WILL have expensive (if they are rare) rookie cards someday.

We're finally getting to the point where you can pick out a good player and go get his darn near best card possible for a reasonable price.

If the players you named had Gold Refractor rookie cards i contend they'd be worth plenty. The problem is there were 500,000 copies of each of those players' rookies.

What would someone pay for a Don Mattingly Gold Refractor Auto rookie?

Mark Grace? Tim Raines, all great players, but maybe not hall of famers. They would be tremendously expensive.

In my opinion, even team favorites can have very expensive rookies.

I would pay 100 bucks for a Jeff Conine Gold Auto Rookie.

What would you pay for your teams' great players (if not hall of famers)

What its going to take for this to shake out is time, and for the public at large to be able to understand the rookie card market. Its been quite a confusing and 'insider' thing for the last few years. MLB properties attempted to make it easier for the average collector to understand what a rookie card is, but all they did was muddy the water with extra "RCs"

In the end, some kid is gonna follow (insert player name here) throughout his entire career, and love him just as much as his dad loved Koufax. And if that kid gets a REALLY good job, he'll be able to be one of the 50 people in the world to own (insert player name here)'s Gold Refractor RC from a draft pick set .

(if he works at walmart he can get (insert player name here)'s 3rd year MLB "RC")

uniquebaseballcards · Jan 6, 2010

One truly amazing thing about the FCB (myself included sometimes, so I'm not criticizing anyone) is that everyone always seems to know what can or should happen. We all individually know who will be HOF, which product or player will earn the best return, who will win the WS, who will win MVP, RoY, CY, who will be called up, etc. etc. etc. Often everything seems so 'simple' and black and white. Although some predict the future for fun, or to sell an agenda, I don't think our success rate in predicting the future is usually very high :lol:

Rarity is mentioned below, but rarity alone is not a guarantee of future value: even though thousands of '52 Mantles were created, they sell for tens of thousands of dollars anyway. Also note these weren't even rookie cards. Comparative rarity may increase value I suppose - problem is that the market isn't mature enough for us to really know, we're only guessing it will increase value but we don't even know to what extent yet. One thing is for sure: rarity is really a simple idea that makes intuitive sense even to novice collectors.

One huge read flag about rare mediocre FYs being great investments: Why are they always so anxiously sold before the player does anything in the MLB?? If they were great investments to begin with, people would never sell them so early like they so often do today...the hobby would be even more like it was 'pre-prospecting' - don't sell until a year or two before a player's retirement. I wonder how many player collectors here consider their player's FY or RC as being their favorite card...or are FY/RCs another simple idea (that first = best) meant to appeal to novice collectors or the uninitiated?

What would Warren Buffet do in a card market?? Would he be buying what everyone else is investing in? Probably not. For one thing, there'd be too many "middlemen" driving up prices!

Its easy to oversimplify and say: FY/RC and rare = big $. But eventually people will buy what makes them happy, and these things will always be expensive - but expensive things aren't the ONLY thing that will make people happy...neither are rare things...this I can predict

Mudcatsfan said:
I still contend, and have for a LONG time,

Mediocre players WILL have expensive (if they are rare) rookie cards someday.

We're finally getting to the point where you can pick out a good player and go get his darn near best card possible for a reasonable price.

If the players you named had Gold Refractor rookie cards i contend they'd be worth plenty. The problem is there were 500,000 copies of each of those players' rookies.

What would someone pay for a Don Mattingly Gold Refractor Auto rookie?

Mark Grace? Tim Raines, all great players, but maybe not hall of famers. They would be tremendously expensive.

In my opinion, even team favorites can have very expensive rookies.

I would pay 100 bucks for a Jeff Conine Gold Auto Rookie.

What would you pay for your teams' great players (if not hall of famers)

What its going to take for this to shake out is time, and for the public at large to be able to understand the rookie card market. Its been quite a confusing and 'insider' thing for the last few years. MLB properties attempted to make it easier for the average collector to understand what a rookie card is, but all they did was muddy the water with extra "RCs"

In the end, some kid is gonna follow (insert player name here) throughout his entire career, and love him just as much as his dad loved Koufax. And if that kid gets a REALLY good job, he'll be able to be one of the 50 people in the world to own (insert player name here)'s Gold Refractor RC from a draft pick set .

(if he works at walmart he can get (insert player name here)'s 3rd year MLB "RC")

BrewerSuperCollector · Jan 6, 2010

Funny you ask. I had a conversation recently with a friend about something similar. One of the Brewers minor league affiliates is selling 8 packs of tickets and you also get a one out of four possible bobbleheads. The players are Lorenzo Cain, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Taylor Green. Only 96 of each bobblehead made.

Everyone keeps saying who would want a Jeff Suppan. I said Lorenzo Cain and Taylor Green probably won't be anywhere near the players that Suppan's career has been...15 year vet...World Series ring.

Of course, I bought 4 sets of the 8 packs to get one of each bobblehead.

Mudcatsfan · Jan 6, 2010

uniquebaseballcards said:
One truly amazing thing about the FCB (myself included sometimes, so I'm not criticizing anyone) is that everyone always seems to know what can or should happen. We all individually know who will be HOF, which product or player will earn the best return, who will win the WS, who will win MVP, RoY, CY, who will be called up, etc. etc. etc. Often everything seems so 'simple' and black and white. Although some predict the future for fun, or to sell an agenda, I don't think our success rate in predicting the future is usually very high :lol:

Rarity is mentioned below, but rarity alone is not a guarantee of future value: even though thousands of '52 Mantles were created, they sell for tens of thousands of dollars anyway. Also note these weren't even rookie cards. Comparative rarity may increase value I suppose - problem is that the market isn't mature enough for us to really know, we're only guessing it will increase value but we don't even know to what extent yet. One thing is for sure: rarity is really a simple idea that makes intuitive sense even to novice collectors.

One huge read flag about rare mediocre FYs being great investments: Why are they always so anxiously sold before the player does anything in the MLB?? If they were great investments to begin with, people would never sell them so early like they so often do today...the hobby would be even more like it was 'pre-prospecting' - don't sell until a year or two before a player's retirement. I wonder how many player collectors here consider their player's FY or RC as being their favorite card...or are FY/RCs another simple idea (that first = best) meant to appeal to novice collectors or the uninitiated?

What would Warren Buffet do in a card market?? Would he be buying what everyone else is investing in? Probably not. For one thing, there'd be too many "middlemen" driving up prices!

Its easy to oversimplify and say: FY/RC and rare = big $. But eventually people will buy what makes them happy, and these things will always be expensive - but expensive things aren't the ONLY thing that will make people happy...neither are rare things...this I can predict

Mudcatsfan said:

I still contend, and have for a LONG time,

Mediocre players WILL have expensive (if they are rare) rookie cards someday.

We're finally getting to the point where you can pick out a good player and go get his darn near best card possible for a reasonable price.

If the players you named had Gold Refractor rookie cards i contend they'd be worth plenty. The problem is there were 500,000 copies of each of those players' rookies.

What would someone pay for a Don Mattingly Gold Refractor Auto rookie?

Mark Grace? Tim Raines, all great players, but maybe not hall of famers. They would be tremendously expensive.

In my opinion, even team favorites can have very expensive rookies.

I would pay 100 bucks for a Jeff Conine Gold Auto Rookie.

What would you pay for your teams' great players (if not hall of famers)

What its going to take for this to shake out is time, and for the public at large to be able to understand the rookie card market. Its been quite a confusing and 'insider' thing for the last few years. MLB properties attempted to make it easier for the average collector to understand what a rookie card is, but all they did was muddy the water with extra "RCs"

In the end, some kid is gonna follow (insert player name here) throughout his entire career, and love him just as much as his dad loved Koufax. And if that kid gets a REALLY good job, he'll be able to be one of the 50 people in the world to own (insert player name here)'s Gold Refractor RC from a draft pick set .

(if he works at walmart he can get (insert player name here)'s 3rd year MLB "RC")

Click to expand...

So if Mantle rookies had rare autographed 1952 parallels, would they be worth more or less than the regular 52 ?mantle?

uniquebaseballcards · Jan 6, 2010

If he signed as much as Bob Feller does today, wouldn't it be fair to say that *all* of his early autos would decrease in value? Many people who buy auto cards are really after the auto and not the card.

Mudcatsfan said:
So if Mantle rookies had rare autographed 1952 parallels, would they be worth more or less than the regular 52 ?mantle?

Mudcatsfan · Jan 6, 2010

uniquebaseballcards said:
If he signed as much as Bob Feller does today, wouldn't it be fair to say that *all* of his early autos would decrease in value? Many people who buy auto cards are really after the auto and not the card.

Mudcatsfan said:

So if Mantle rookies had rare autographed 1952 parallels, would they be worth more or less than the regular 52 ?mantle?

Click to expand...

Arent' autographs that can be certified as having come from a very early period in a person's life (as opposed to just any average auto of a certain celeb) considered more valuable in the autograph collecting community.

Certified Rookie autos provide this level of provenance.

Mudcatsfan · Jan 6, 2010

Which book is worth more, the first edition or the 5th?

UMich92 · Jan 6, 2010

Mudcatsfan said:
I still contend, and have for a LONG time,

Mediocre players WILL have expensive (if they are rare) rookie cards someday.

We're finally getting to the point where you can pick out a good player and go get his darn near best card possible for a reasonable price.

If the players you named had Gold Refractor rookie cards i contend they'd be worth plenty. The problem is there were 500,000 copies of each of those players' rookies.

What would someone pay for a Don Mattingly Gold Refractor Auto rookie?

Mark Grace? Tim Raines, all great players, but maybe not hall of famers. They would be tremendously expensive.

In my opinion, even team favorites can have very expensive rookies.

I would pay 100 bucks for a Jeff Conine Gold Auto Rookie.

What would you pay for your teams' great players (if not hall of famers)

What its going to take for this to shake out is time, and for the public at large to be able to understand the rookie card market. Its been quite a confusing and 'insider' thing for the last few years. MLB properties attempted to make it easier for the average collector to understand what a rookie card is, but all they did was muddy the water with extra "RCs"

In the end, some kid is gonna follow (insert player name here) throughout his entire career, and love him just as much as his dad loved Koufax. And if that kid gets a REALLY good job, he'll be able to be one of the 50 people in the world to own (insert player name here)'s Gold Refractor RC from a draft pick set .

(if he works at walmart he can get (insert player name here)'s 3rd year MLB "RC")

Mudcats - I definitely agree with you. Though, I might amend your "mediocre" to be semi-star or minor star. And I think it would apply even more to players most identified with a team. I look at someone like Ryan Zimmerman who looks to be a star for many years to come and could be a player that is not quite a HOFer but is the identity of a team. At $40-$50 for a base chrome auto and $150 for a blue ref, it seems like he is solid buy long term and even more so if you are a Nationals fan.

Alex

Mudcatsfan · Jan 6, 2010

UMich92 said:
Mudcatsfan said:

I still contend, and have for a LONG time,

Mediocre players WILL have expensive (if they are rare) rookie cards someday.

We're finally getting to the point where you can pick out a good player and go get his darn near best card possible for a reasonable price.

If the players you named had Gold Refractor rookie cards i contend they'd be worth plenty. The problem is there were 500,000 copies of each of those players' rookies.

What would someone pay for a Don Mattingly Gold Refractor Auto rookie?

Mark Grace? Tim Raines, all great players, but maybe not hall of famers. They would be tremendously expensive.

In my opinion, even team favorites can have very expensive rookies.

I would pay 100 bucks for a Jeff Conine Gold Auto Rookie.

What would you pay for your teams' great players (if not hall of famers)

What its going to take for this to shake out is time, and for the public at large to be able to understand the rookie card market. Its been quite a confusing and 'insider' thing for the last few years. MLB properties attempted to make it easier for the average collector to understand what a rookie card is, but all they did was muddy the water with extra "RCs"

In the end, some kid is gonna follow (insert player name here) throughout his entire career, and love him just as much as his dad loved Koufax. And if that kid gets a REALLY good job, he'll be able to be one of the 50 people in the world to own (insert player name here)'s Gold Refractor RC from a draft pick set .

(if he works at walmart he can get (insert player name here)'s 3rd year MLB "RC")

Click to expand...

Mudcats - I definitely agree with you. Though, I might amend your "mediocre" to be semi-star or minor star. And I think it would apply even more to players most identified with a team. I look at someone like Ryan Zimmerman who looks to be a star for many years to come and could be a player that is not quite a HOFer but is the identity of a team. At $40-$50 for a base chrome auto and $150 for a blue ref, it seems like he is solid buy long term and even more so if you are a Nationals fan.

Alex

thanks, mediocre was a poor choice of words. Semi-star was what i was trying to convey, based on my choice of players from the example, Conine all the way up to a Mattingly.

Guys who have gone to all star games, heck even won an MVP, but will not be hall of famers.

uniquebaseballcards · Jan 6, 2010

Most people are happy with any autograph, old or new. Actually old autos could carry some appeal over new ones; as a player could signing on a particular event or day, etc. What if the player signed a TON in HS or college? Again I'm curious to see what happens in ten or twenty years, but we don't know, and can only guess.

EDIT: It would be really cool to have a card auto'ed by the Hawk the day of his induction - the day he *reached* his absolute full potential. Might be more meaningful than a card auto'ed by the Hawk when he was only potential depending on your tastes.

Mudcatsfan said:
Arent' autographs that can be certified as having come from a very early period in a person's life (as opposed to just any average auto of a certain celeb) considered more valuable in the autograph collecting community.

Certified Rookie autos provide this level of provenance.

This is actually a poor comparison because subsequent cards from different years and releases do not look the same as the player's first released card - unless you're saying no other cards matter or will ever be valuable...I don't think anyone wants to go there.

1st edition, 5th edition, they're all versions of the same book and they all look identical. But many people only want to read the book and are happy with beat up copies, Cliff Notes or even abridged versions.

Mudcatsfan said:
Which book is worth more, the first edition or the 5th?

The other thing that's different about this discussion is that nobody in the hobby thirty years ago sat around saying 'these cards would be valuable or expensive some day'. They were probably deciding which card was the coolest to own. Often the model today seems to guess what card will be coolest for someone twenty years from now to have instead and be the person who sells that card - and not to actually ever own or enjoy the thing.

Hard to apply traditional methods of assigning value when the entire hobby landscape has changed. Nobody knows for sure what will happen, but hey, maybe Conine will have some ATFF gold autos soon.

UMich92 · Jan 6, 2010

Too bad one of my favorite Tigers, Curtis Granderson, was traded. He seemed like one of those "face of the franchise" types.

Alex

brouthercard · Jan 7, 2010

It'll be really interesting to see twenty years from now how the rare rookie card market is. I just hope today's technology is good enough to preserve those rookie autos for the future - I would hate to see a faded autograph on an Evan Longoria superfractor rookie auto!

G $MONEY$ · Jan 7, 2010

Mudcatsfan said:
I still contend, and have for a LONG time,

Mediocre players WILL have expensive (if they are rare) rookie cards someday.

This is already true in Hockey. Many semi-star (mediocre?) players that where rookies in the early 2000's that had limited, auto/patch rookies have very expensive rookie cards today.

Mudcatsfan · Jan 7, 2010

G $MONEY$ said:
Mudcatsfan said:

I still contend, and have for a LONG time,

Mediocre players WILL have expensive (if they are rare) rookie cards someday.

Click to expand...

This is already true in Hockey. Many semi-star (mediocre?) players that where rookies in the early 2000's that had limited, auto/patch rookies have very expensive rookie cards today.

Tell me more.

We've often gasped at the prices basketball and hockey cards achieve.

Its hard to believe but those sports sure seem to have the world's attention better, rather than just America's attention.

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