The State of Baseball Cards in the Future

When I was younger (the 90s), I used to buy packs of cards for the fun of opening, and kept everything. I sorted my favorites out and put them in binders and cases, and kept all the base cards in boxes. I always thought that keeping them for years would eventually make me a lot of money, just like if you had done this in the 50s and were selling off your cards today in 2010.

Lots of new factors have since come into play: grading to preserve condition, implementation of GU and autograph cards, lots of rookie cards and rookie card parallels for each player (as opposed to having one, maybe two or three base rookie cards as in the old days of the hobby), and the big one......the internet.

There are lots of interesting ways to look at it, but I wonder--Will a 6th year base card of a star player ever bring $20? Are rookies the only cards that will matter? How will non-rookie autographs be seen and valued in the future? One could think of dozens of similar questions, which sparks this topic.


Taking all these factors into consideration, what do you think the baseball card market will be like in the future? And how do you think cards from the 1990s and 2000s will sell in the year 2050?

A lot more volatile and... inconsistent. Demand will be coming and going with each new product, unlike the vintage cards where it is constant, if not growing, because of limited supply.

Will we continue to have some kind of Era progression? Sounds weird, but try to follow my thinking here. For example, the Pre-war Era, the Vintage Era, the Junk Era, the Prospecting Era..is this whole rookie card thing just another phase that will die off and be replaced by something else, as have everything else in the past?

Ant

Its interesting to consider all of this from time to time, but naturally any analysis of this topic is incomplete if only the investment side of the hobby is represented in the discussion.

But I'm trying to think of an era in the hobby where people were able to accurately see the hobby's future...but there has never been one. For all we know, Star Trek replicators may be invented fifteen years from now that will enable anyone to accurately and completely duplicate anything, including cards...which is why I'd rather concentrate on what's around now than imagine and worry too much about the future.

But with that said, the only thing I hope for in the future is that people collect what they want to collect and not be terribly concerned what other people want or want them to collect. Its not fun when you're always hoping someone else likes or approves what you've got all the time.

great topic

who knows what the future will hold, thats part of the fun.. also fun to debate it. maybe guys in the future will be hitting 60 Hrs a season, so power guys are worth less.. or maybe tons of players in the future steal 80 a year all the time and speed guys now seem like a joke. maybe both leagues use the DH in the future, making cards with pitchers batting super valuable. Maybe Ted Williams is revived from carbonite in the future and goes on to hit 400 more Hrs.


as for me I think my crusades will have some worth in the future. I think no matter what era or type of card, if its the best of the era it will sought after. sure, the shiny-insert era was way shorter than Pre-War, and will be way shorter than prospecting etc... but the crusades were one of the most favored inserts so I think they will be a few buyers.. not that I will sell.

it brings a key point out- do what YOU like as nobody knows what will be "in" or "out" - "prime wax" or "bad wax"
I think a lot of people are doing prospecting just because its the norm. they suck at it, lose money, dont have fun, and dont have a collection filled memories to want to keep around/dont have value.

if you looked at each group of collector I bet the 55+ age group collection the guys they watched as a kid would be the most happy collecting group.

A few thoughts --

1) I worry about a 1990's crash again from a glut of product, even though some is "limited". Card manufacturers never try to consistently produce too little of a product.

2) A recession or just bad economy and suddenly people run out of throwaway AKA hobby money.

3) The biggest worry is when some individuals from an unnamed country starts making fake PSA holders and suddenly, everyone wonders if their slabbed card is real or not, or a true grade or not. Could happen with BGS too, but the PSA slabs are just too flimsy. I wonder if the whole graded card value would just take a dump. For those who say that's great, enjoy trimmed cards and fake patches.

4) The prospectors/investors who dump money into the "next Lincecum" might realize their portfolio consists of the next Todd Van Poppel. Too few returns and a lot of money could be taken out of the sports card buyers.

5) Lastly, I think that about 2-3% (being generous) of the modern cards sold today will hold their value over the next 10-15 years -- basically when the current rookies have proven what kind of player they are, if they're even still in the league.

6) Sorry, thought I was done at 5 . . . In this age of video games and technological wonders, I can only think that the number of sports fans, but especially card collectors, will sadly decrease.

Interesting topic, I actually think of this often. I grew up in the 80's and did most of my early collecting then. I can't even begin to type all my thoughts on the subject. What I think will happen is basically what happened with most sets, there will be a handful of star rookies from each year.

Think about one of the biggest (impact wise) sets to the hobby, 89 Upper Deck. When this came out certain cards were selling like crazy and for decent bucks, let me present to you, Gregg Jefferies. While I am a fan of his, he turns out to be a good example here. People went crazy for this rookie card, paying a few bucks each for one. Now, you can get as many as you want for nothing. There remained only a few key cards in the set, Griffey, Johnson, and maybe Vizquel & Sheff.

Point is only some players will keep a huge demand, most will fade away, as will the value of their base cards. I honestly don't see any base cards (i.e. non rookie) even of the highest selling players being worth more than $1, obviously you will have some parallels that are rare, and those would be a few bucks, maybe.

Based on this, with most sweet pulls you make, take the money and run !

I also find it hard to fathom late 80's and 90's stuff ever becoming "rare" or "valuable" in the future. You can still find tons of wax boxes dirt cheap, and the bottom line is there was just soooo much made of this stuff, that it will never be scarce.

I also think that buy and hold will only pan out for a handful of players (the Pujols types), and the majority will sadly not live up to expectations as long term investments : (

Jsn

aminors said:

Will we continue to have some kind of Era progression? Sounds weird, but try to follow my thinking here. For example, the Pre-war Era, the Vintage Era, the Junk Era, the Prospecting Era..is this whole rookie card thing just another phase that will die off and be replaced by something else, as have everything else in the past?

Ant

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There's no such thing as the "vintage era," and there's no such thing as the "prospecting era."

To think that prospecting makes up such a small number of hobbyists and collectors that to classify the time period of 2000-2010 (for example) would be severely undermining the hobby, and those who partake in it. And vintage...well, what one considers vintage varies. To me, and to most hobby magazines, anything pre-1974 is considered pre-modern day, which really is when Topps stopped issuing cards in series (until bringing it back in 2001, I believe).

The bottom line is that more people collect than flip - it's always been that way and always will. Unfortunately, the hobby has evolved to the point where kids can no longer play on the same field as those who earn a living and those who earn a living can't play on the same field as those who earn a substantial living.

The hobby has moved way past the wax pack with gum.

Sad, but true.

And to address your question of how much will your cards be worth in 2050 - well, let's just say that my two cases of 1987 topps vending will still be worthless in much the same way as many non-sports packs and boxes from the 1970s are. Just because something's old doesn't mean that it's worth something.

Here is a glimpse at what's to come in the next "era" of cards...

http://cgi.ebay.com/Kobe-Bryant-2009-10 ... 563ca76c80

Redemptions for full-size autographed memorabilia :shock:

Zithy said:

A few thoughts --

1) I worry about a 1990's crash again from a glut of product, even though some is "limited". Card manufacturers never try to consistently produce too little of a product.

2) A recession or just bad economy and suddenly people run out of throwaway AKA hobby money.

3) The biggest worry is when some individuals from an unnamed country starts making fake PSA holders and suddenly, everyone wonders if their slabbed card is real or not, or a true grade or not. Could happen with BGS too, but the PSA slabs are just too flimsy. I wonder if the whole graded card value would just take a dump. For those who say that's great, enjoy trimmed cards and fake patches.
4) The prospectors/investors who dump money into the "next Lincecum" might realize their portfolio consists of the next Todd Van Poppel. Too few returns and a lot of money could be taken out of the sports card buyers.

5) Lastly, I think that about 2-3% (being generous) of the modern cards sold today will hold their value over the next 10-15 years -- basically when the current rookies have proven what kind of player they are, if they're even still in the league.

6) Sorry, thought I was done at 5 . . . In this age of video games and technological wonders, I can only think that the number of sports fans, but especially card collectors, will sadly decrease.

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We can do that now, even with the grading companies. To me...I can't see it getting much worse as far as that goes. Now more than ever its easier to get a premium for a high grade. Back in the day high grades drew a premium but not to this extent.


As for what I see...honestly I think it may die out or eventually may get to where there is still a small hobby but very few if any releases. Baseball cards are purchased by the older crowd and once we start to get away from it or die off, is there anyone else to pick up the reigns enough to sustain the hobby? Hopefully. But if it gets to that stage, maybe some of the stuff we have will be worth more. Not sure.

jkeys said:

I also find it hard to fathom late 80's and 90's stuff ever becoming "rare" or "valuable" in the future. You can still find tons of wax boxes dirt cheap, and the bottom line is there was just soooo much made of this stuff, that it will never be scarce.

I also think that buy and hold will only pan out for a handful of players (the Pujols types), and the majority will sadly not live up to expectations as long term investments : (

Jsn

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Early 90's yes. Mid-late 90's...uhh...no. Not at all. In fact, not sure if you realize it or not, but 90's stuff picked up a lot. People seem to be getting bored with gu and autos. I used to collect 90's inserts like crazy. Dirt cheap and nobody was doing it. Now, I have had to bow out.

jkeys said:

I also find it hard to fathom late 80's and 90's stuff ever becoming "rare" or "valuable" in the future. You can still find tons of wax boxes dirt cheap, and the bottom line is there was just soooo much made of this stuff, that it will never be scarce.

I also think that buy and hold will only pan out for a handful of players (the Pujols types), and the majority will sadly not live up to expectations as long term investments : (

Jsn

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This makes me wonder because so many people have this idea that it is junk and most just trash/firewood/bike spoke the cards. I wonder if in time these sets would become more rare, maybe not super-valuable but harder to find. If it's worthless I don't see a bunch of people holding them...basically decreasing the supply.

Fandruw25 said:

jkeys said:

I also find it hard to fathom late 80's and 90's stuff ever becoming "rare" or "valuable" in the future. You can still find tons of wax boxes dirt cheap, and the bottom line is there was just soooo much made of this stuff, that it will never be scarce.

I also think that buy and hold will only pan out for a handful of players (the Pujols types), and the majority will sadly not live up to expectations as long term investments : (

Jsn

Click to expand...

This makes me wonder because so many people have this idea that it is junk and most just trash/firewood/bike spoke the cards. I wonder if in time these sets would become more rare, maybe not super-valuable but harder to find. If it's worthless I don't see a bunch of people holding them...basically decreasing the supply.

Click to expand...

My thoughts too. I guess we will have to see.

According to Topps this is the future of baseball cards

Used to be that having a thrid year Yount meant something (and was a valuable card). But those days will never be seen again.

They are gone because back then, something had to bring a premium. Thats why star cards became money and then rookie cards. There were no inserts, game used, autos and for the most part, short prints. Now we have those which takes away the luster from base cards.

I think that many true hard to find inserts from the mid/late 90's will start to take off more often and also game used of legends, like Mantle, Mays, Williams, Aaron, etc. There surely cant be many more GU items floating around from these guys, let alone pre wars stars.

Besides them drying up, the cost for companies to buy them and then cut them up will just be too great. Perhaps they will be used in only the very very higest end products, but on a limited scale.

This post reminds me that many people forget what cards are for and what the "purpose" of a card is. Its hard to think anyone can assign any type of value to a card or make predictions about cards without thinking why cards even exist.

Someone's fitting square pegs into round holes when they're trying to make cards into something they're not.

Pretty sad to think about. But I wouldn't be as down on things as per below.

011873 said:

Used to be that having a thrid year Yount meant something (and was a valuable card). But those days will never be seen again.

They are gone because back then, something had to bring a premium. Thats why star cards became money and then rookie cards. There were no inserts, game used, autos and for the most part, short prints. Now we have those which takes away the luster from base cards.

I think that many true hard to find inserts from the mid/late 90's will start to take off more often and also game used of legends, like Mantle, Mays, Williams, Aaron, etc. There surely cant be many more GU items floating around from these guys, let alone pre wars stars.

Besides them drying up, the cost for companies to buy them and then cut them up will just be too great. Perhaps they will be used in only the very very higest end products, but on a limited scale.

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