Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball...pack odds

here are some pack odds....
last year production was low and blue ref 1;13 & golds 1:52 I believe
this year: blues are 1;58; golds 1:224

plus it appears that some of the base rc could be sp, as well as some of the bigger autos of course (but this is speculative on early breaks)
as retail is live on ebay, and a couple have seen hobby, including beckett & not pulled a decent base rc or auto rc

i guess we have to blame ourselves in a way, lol
we all jumped on and ordered at record levels...so topps kept printing
but I thought I would have a couple blue ref sets...

it would be nice with the cases topps was offering to buy back to include those extra inserts and we pull them more often

MAN, that is a HUGE jump... I am still in shock

43,780 blue refractors made at 58 packs equals 105,800 BOXES, so over 8,000 cases...wow
last year was 23,714 boxes or 1,975 cases

of course this does NOT factor in retail

BUT imagine opening 30 cases like me and not pulling even a STRASBURG blue ref /199... odds are I will get 148 blue refractors, wow...
and the inserts are falling at 6 per box & the refractors are not 1:3 as advertised

was hoping for lots of color & fun, but we shall see


what does this mean for BC, or even Update on production increases?

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

What are the odds on the Heritage chromes, refs, and blacks? Thanks for posting this.

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

I did not ask odds for everything...just some to check production
but looks like each box only has 6 inserts total, 1 being a refractor version of the inserts
heritage appear to be 2 per box, sometimes 3 total...

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

Thanks for the info. Thankfully (at least hopefully) the Heritage set is only 50 cards this year, instead of 100 like in 2008. Hopefully some decent players this time around as well.

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

They quadrupled the print-run??? Wow. That's pretty messed-up. Last year was one of the best Topps Chrome products. This sucks.

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

looks like us busters are about to take a bath on this one...great job topps, way to take care of your customers. (holding out hope that the extra 3 cards for the wrappers will be in HIGH demand) :lol:

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

"Don't believe the hype" ::facepalm:: I should have listened.
I am only breaking a case so I feel for you guys. Hopefully a nice auto somewhere in there and 12 sets of bonus cards. Maybe catch lightning in a bottle and pull a nice gold.


::facepalm::

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

I actually like this.. hopefully this will restore value to the low numbered items because they will actually be "tough" to pull

This being said.. topps should slightly reduce the cost per box

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

garyg21 said:

I actually like this.. hopefully this will restore value to the low numbered items because they will actually be "tough" to pull

This being said.. topps should slightly reduce the cost per box

Click to expand...

After the break and on down the road, I dont think anyone will care (or pay a premium) that people had to trudge through boxes of excess base cards to find the low numbered cards. They will be what they are - low numbered cards /1 /5/ 25/ 50/ /150 just like any other year or other product. This just sucks bad for the busters...

Reminds me of a few 08 Bowman Chrome boxes I bought on more than one occassion. 1 base auto and 6 veteran refractors. NO gold foil stamps anywhere to be found. These were SO fun to bust I got back in my car and drove back to the hobby shop for more!! I think there will be a lot of dud boxes collecting dust on the shelves.

If they do this to BC or BDP I wont be buying.

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

garyg21 said:

I actually like this.. hopefully this will restore value to the low numbered items because they will actually be "tough" to pull

This being said.. topps should slightly reduce the cost per box

Click to expand...

but it won't raise prices...
it waters down the market with over-saturation of a product that they typically produce far less of and with fewer collectors than say a Topps base or BC
people are used to paying lower prices, and THIS FACT REMAINS...no matter how difficult they are to hit there is still the same # of them
last year /199, this year /199, so still same chance to buy one especially with the massive number of breakers

base sets SHOULD go up since some rc are said to be SP already

but topps print to order is bad news for all of these over-hyped products that far less care about now
hopefully we all learn a lesson, including topps for next year with chapman & perhaps harper

way too much of this was ordered so they kept printing, then even offered to buy back cases,a nd this is the first product I can remember that has dropped BELOW cost prior to release

shoot last year's even held value and only good auto to hit with HANSON which i think is a $60 card
there are so many better autos this year on-card

it would have been better if there never was a Strasburg, then this would not have bee over-ordered and would have strong value
and some of the best rc autos in years

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

ArtVandelay said:

garyg21 said:

I actually like this.. hopefully this will restore value to the low numbered items because they will actually be "tough" to pull

This being said.. topps should slightly reduce the cost per box

Click to expand...

After the break and on down the road, I dont think anyone will care (or pay a premium) that people had to trudge through boxes of excess base cards to find the low numbered cards. They will be what they are - low numbered cards /1 /5/ 25/ 50/ /150 just like any other year or other product. This just sucks bad for the busters...

Reminds me of a few 08 Bowman Chrome boxes I bought on more than one occassion. 1 base auto and 6 veteran refractors. NO gold foil stamps anywhere to be found. These were SO fun to bust I got back in my car and drove back to the hobby shop for more!! I think there will be a lot of dud boxes collecting dust on the shelves.

If they do this to BC or BDP I wont be buying.

Click to expand...

Because they produced more cases, thats what made the odds longer.
(Still the same amount of refractors, just more product to stretch them out)
The refractors will still be numbered the same.
Premiums are paid for serial numbers, NOT how hard they are to pull.

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

Topps isn't always going to try to make things best for the short-term anyway. Short-term things might not be so hot, but long-term things will be different.

But as always the wax distributors will have big sales of this stuff in a year and the product will experience a resurgence, this will time nicely with Stras' return.

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

heritage is 1:26 packs for a regular

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

for another comparison

the Heritage product has black ref /61 1 per case
this has them at 1:3 cases
so this is 3x produced more than heritage?
wow, heritage is king
chrome is crap, lol

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

brentandbecca said:

for another comparison

the Heritage product has black ref /61 1 per case
this has them at 1:3 cases
so this is 3x produced more than heritage?
wow, heritage is king
chrome is crap, lol

Click to expand...

Don't forget to factor in how many less heritage cards are in this set.

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

brentandbecca said:

for another comparison

the Heritage product has black ref /61 1 per case
this has them at 1:3 cases
so this is 3x produced more than heritage?
wow, heritage is king
chrome is crap, lol

Click to expand...

Weren't you the same person that initially was going ON AND ON about how great this product was going to be? Just saying....

i did, I know it is half... but that is still 1/2 a case higher
But based on last year's 2000 case production black ref were suppose to be 1 every 8-9 boxes

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

ballerskrip said:

brentandbecca said:

for another comparison

the Heritage product has black ref /61 1 per case
this has them at 1:3 cases
so this is 3x produced more than heritage?
wow, heritage is king
chrome is crap, lol

Click to expand...

Weren't you the same person that initially was going ON AND ON about how great this product was going to be? Just saying....

Click to expand...

You have me confused with someone else...
I just joined the site recently & list my breaks
I had one follow-up post to someone but never on & on

on paper this should have been great, that is why topps increased from 2000 cases to 8000 due to all the orders
but that is what killed it

Re: Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball

brentandbecca said:

ballerskrip said:

brentandbecca said:

for another comparison

the Heritage product has black ref /61 1 per case
this has them at 1:3 cases
so this is 3x produced more than heritage?
wow, heritage is king
chrome is crap, lol

Click to expand...

Weren't you the same person that initially was going ON AND ON about how great this product was going to be? Just saying....

Click to expand...

You have me confused with someone else...
I just joined the site recently & list my breaks
I had one follow-up post to someone but never on & on

on paper this should have been great, that is why topps increased from 2000 cases to 8000 due to all the orders
but that is what killed it

Click to expand...

My fault, it must have been the OP of that thread that was going on and on about it being a great break for case rippers. I hope it still turns out to be a good product, but your numbers you have posted are definitely concerining to say the least.

Good luck on your Cases

skrip

It will be interesting to see the first few sales of 2010 Topps Chrome RC's...there are some up now...let's see how they go...