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Teams Have All Kind Of Options In 2011 Draft
By Jim Callis
April 28, 2011
CHICAGO—The easiest decision in the 2010 draft came at the No. 3 pick.
There were three clear standouts in that class: Bryce Harper, with his unparalleled power; Jameson Taillon, a.k.a. Josh Beckett v2.0; and Manny Machado, for his five-tool shortstop potential. When the Nationals took Harper with the No. 1 overall pick and the Pirates got their top choice with Taillon at No. 2, the Orioles had their minds made up for them. They grabbed Machado with the third selection.
After that, there was no consensus as to how the talent stacked up behind the Big Three. Only two of the next seven players on our Top 200 Draft Prospects list went in the first 10 selections, which included our 35th-, 20th- and 55th-rated prospects (Barret Loux, Matt Harvey and Delino DeShields Jr.).
This year, the situation is almost the exact opposite. With the first pick, the Pirates figure to grab either Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon or UCLA righthander Gerrit Cole, the closest things to Evan Longoria and Stephen Strasburg that we've seen since Longoria and Strasburg. At No. 2, the Mariners likely will take whichever player remains.
Once Rendon and Cole go off the board, another free-for-all will begin—for the exact opposite reasons of a year ago. Whereas there was a dearth of options in 2010, there are so many in 2011 that it boggles the mind. A talent pool that most scouting directors thought would be the deepest since at least 2005 has lived up to expectations and may exceed them.
Unbelievable Amount Of Arms
Nowhere is the abundance of talent more obvious than on the mound. Almost all of the top pitching prospects have been as good or better than anticipated, starting with Cole, who has shown improved control and consistency and a more advanced changeup.
Danny Hultzen's (Virginia) polish has made him nearly untouchable. Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt) has been as devastating as ever with his fastball/curveball combination. Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech) has better all-around stuff than either of them.
Trevor Bauer may not have a textbook delivery or approach to pitching, but he has outpitched Cole at UCLA and is on track to become the first pitcher in 31 years to repeat as the NCAA Division I strikeout leader. Taylor Jungmann continues to rack up victories with quality stuff at Texas. Matt Barnes (Connecticut) has won six straight games while making strides with his command.
All of those guys would have been in contention to be the first college pitcher drafted in 2010, a distinction that went to Drew Pomeranz, whom the Indians selected fifth overall. This time around, there probably won't be room in the top 10 for all of them.
Then there are the high school arms. With a total package of stuff, control and mechanics, Dylan Bundy has moved ahead of fellow Oklahoma product Archie Bradley as the best prep pitcher available. South Carolina's Taylor Guerrieri has surged into the discussion after hitting 98 mph with his fastball. Florida's Jose Fernandez has similar velocity.
Tennessee's Daniel Norris once rated as 2011's top high school prospect but, through no fault of his own, will have to settle for being the best prep lefthander. Henry Owens, the gem in a rare lackluster Southern California high school class, isn't far behind.
"The toughest part is going to be separating all of those arms," a scouting director says. "There are a lot of power guys with velocity."
Plenty Of Positional Options
The position players aren't as stellar as the pitchers, but there still are plenty to whet scouts' appetites.
Kansas outfielder Bubba Starling is the best five-tool high school athlete since Justin Upton in 2005. Florida's Francisco Lindor may not quite have Machado's offensive ceiling, but he's a switch-hitter with surprising pop and a better bet to stay at shortstop. Another athletic switch-hitter, New Mexico's Blake Swihart, could be the first catcher selected. Yet another, Texas outfielder Josh Bell, might have the most dangerous bat among prepsters.
Pro teams go out of their way to snap up as many premier high school athletes as possible, but they let a couple get away in 2007. Connecticut center fielder George Springer has the best all-around tools of any college player in at least a decade, and he's heating up after a slow start. Louisiana State center fielder Mikie Mahtook needed only half a season to reach double figures in homers and steals.
South Carolina outfielder Jackie Bradley, Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac and North Carolina shortstop Levi Michael aren't five-tool guys but they're solid all-around players who add to the college up-the-middle depth. So does Hawaii's Kolten Wong, a rare second baseman who's a true first-round prospect.
"There might be 25 players who would go in the first 6-10 picks in many drafts," a second scouting director says. "It's a fun draft."
It won't be as fun when it comes to signing these players. Their skills, combined with the prospect of mandated draft slotting coming into play in 2012, will push total draft bonuses past the $200 million barrier for the first time. It should be money well spent.
By Jim Callis
April 28, 2011
CHICAGO—The easiest decision in the 2010 draft came at the No. 3 pick.
There were three clear standouts in that class: Bryce Harper, with his unparalleled power; Jameson Taillon, a.k.a. Josh Beckett v2.0; and Manny Machado, for his five-tool shortstop potential. When the Nationals took Harper with the No. 1 overall pick and the Pirates got their top choice with Taillon at No. 2, the Orioles had their minds made up for them. They grabbed Machado with the third selection.
After that, there was no consensus as to how the talent stacked up behind the Big Three. Only two of the next seven players on our Top 200 Draft Prospects list went in the first 10 selections, which included our 35th-, 20th- and 55th-rated prospects (Barret Loux, Matt Harvey and Delino DeShields Jr.).
This year, the situation is almost the exact opposite. With the first pick, the Pirates figure to grab either Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon or UCLA righthander Gerrit Cole, the closest things to Evan Longoria and Stephen Strasburg that we've seen since Longoria and Strasburg. At No. 2, the Mariners likely will take whichever player remains.
Once Rendon and Cole go off the board, another free-for-all will begin—for the exact opposite reasons of a year ago. Whereas there was a dearth of options in 2010, there are so many in 2011 that it boggles the mind. A talent pool that most scouting directors thought would be the deepest since at least 2005 has lived up to expectations and may exceed them.
Unbelievable Amount Of Arms
Nowhere is the abundance of talent more obvious than on the mound. Almost all of the top pitching prospects have been as good or better than anticipated, starting with Cole, who has shown improved control and consistency and a more advanced changeup.
Danny Hultzen's (Virginia) polish has made him nearly untouchable. Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt) has been as devastating as ever with his fastball/curveball combination. Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech) has better all-around stuff than either of them.
Trevor Bauer may not have a textbook delivery or approach to pitching, but he has outpitched Cole at UCLA and is on track to become the first pitcher in 31 years to repeat as the NCAA Division I strikeout leader. Taylor Jungmann continues to rack up victories with quality stuff at Texas. Matt Barnes (Connecticut) has won six straight games while making strides with his command.
All of those guys would have been in contention to be the first college pitcher drafted in 2010, a distinction that went to Drew Pomeranz, whom the Indians selected fifth overall. This time around, there probably won't be room in the top 10 for all of them.
Then there are the high school arms. With a total package of stuff, control and mechanics, Dylan Bundy has moved ahead of fellow Oklahoma product Archie Bradley as the best prep pitcher available. South Carolina's Taylor Guerrieri has surged into the discussion after hitting 98 mph with his fastball. Florida's Jose Fernandez has similar velocity.
Tennessee's Daniel Norris once rated as 2011's top high school prospect but, through no fault of his own, will have to settle for being the best prep lefthander. Henry Owens, the gem in a rare lackluster Southern California high school class, isn't far behind.
"The toughest part is going to be separating all of those arms," a scouting director says. "There are a lot of power guys with velocity."
Plenty Of Positional Options
The position players aren't as stellar as the pitchers, but there still are plenty to whet scouts' appetites.
Kansas outfielder Bubba Starling is the best five-tool high school athlete since Justin Upton in 2005. Florida's Francisco Lindor may not quite have Machado's offensive ceiling, but he's a switch-hitter with surprising pop and a better bet to stay at shortstop. Another athletic switch-hitter, New Mexico's Blake Swihart, could be the first catcher selected. Yet another, Texas outfielder Josh Bell, might have the most dangerous bat among prepsters.
Pro teams go out of their way to snap up as many premier high school athletes as possible, but they let a couple get away in 2007. Connecticut center fielder George Springer has the best all-around tools of any college player in at least a decade, and he's heating up after a slow start. Louisiana State center fielder Mikie Mahtook needed only half a season to reach double figures in homers and steals.
South Carolina outfielder Jackie Bradley, Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac and North Carolina shortstop Levi Michael aren't five-tool guys but they're solid all-around players who add to the college up-the-middle depth. So does Hawaii's Kolten Wong, a rare second baseman who's a true first-round prospect.
"There might be 25 players who would go in the first 6-10 picks in many drafts," a second scouting director says. "It's a fun draft."
It won't be as fun when it comes to signing these players. Their skills, combined with the prospect of mandated draft slotting coming into play in 2012, will push total draft bonuses past the $200 million barrier for the first time. It should be money well spent.
