- Thread starter
- #1
SeattleSports
New member
- Jun 11, 2010
- 2,091
- 0
The intention of this post is to 'inform' and save people money by finding the best bang for the buck break of retail. If you look at completed auctions the past 48 hours, Bowman retail has been selling much more frequently than Bowman hobby/jumbo.
Pros of retail this year
+ Harper Auto
+ Pineda retail exclusive auto
+ Harper chromes
I'm going to use 2010 Bowman's odds which will hopefully be consistent with 2011 Bowman as well. In 2010 Bowman, no one really cared to pull an auto in retail as everyone was looking chromes of Strasburg and Harper. This year, one of the biggest draws is the auto class that is particularly strong. It's important to know that they do break the autos into groups and the better players are typically much tougher to pull.
BLASTERS
Most people think when busting retail, the best value is in the blasters. That may have been true for 2010 as everyone was just looking for chrome, but as far as the autos are concerned it is the worst possible break and its not close. The odds of pulling an auto of GROUP A in 2010 Bowmn was 1:88 packs. Yes, thats one in EIGHTY EIGHT PACKS, or 1:11 blasters (which would cost you $220 in blasters). The odds of pulling the better group of autos in group b was MUCH tougher. Group B autos were 1:3,200 packs or 1:400 blasters. If 2010 is any indication on how 2011 will be, avoid blasters like the plague.
GROUP A 1:88
GROUP B 1:3,200
Refractor 1:32
Purple Refractor 1:8
Blue Refractor 1:121
Gold Refractor 1:630
Orange Refractor 1:1282
RETAIL 24 CT
The retail 24 ct boxes have the exact same odds on chrome parallels but the auto odds were much better at 1 per box. For group A autos, it was 1:24 packs while group B was 1:1,400 packs. While the odds are better, its still just 1:58 boxes for Group B auto. Cases have been selling on ebay for $600 which works out to $50 per box for the chance at 1 BPA Auto.
GROUP A 1:24
GROUP B 1:1,400
Refractor 1:32
Purple Refractor 1:8
Blue Refractor 1:121
Gold Refractor 1:630
Orange Refractor 1:1282
BOWMAN VALUE PACKS 18 CT
This seems to be where the best value is so far if you're looking for parallels as well as auto odds. These are the 'rack packs' that come with 20 cards per pack and 18 packs per box. These are called 'value boxes' when you're searching online. One seller has a case of 'rack pack boxes' which are 6 box cases for $599 BIN which works out to $100 per box. Avoid that! Another seller has them listed as 'value boxes' and they seem to be the hottest seller right now on ebay for bowman and they would be hotter if people were aware they were rack pack boxes. They are selling for $69.96 and 40 of them have been sold in the past 24 hours so you can see its a hot commodity. The odds were much better than any other boxes in 2010 with a price point that was pretty close. Group A autos were 1:17, but Group B autos were 5:585. The best odds however came from the chrome parallels,
Refractor 1:12
Purple Refractor 1:4
Blue Refractor 1:36
Gold Refractor 1:192
Orange Refractor 1:387
In my opinion, after looking at 2010's odds, the 2011 blasters will be very poor value as a 16 box case of blasters only hit on average 1.5 autos last year per case. If you're looking for chrome cards like in 2010, it might have been the best break, but when autos are the key hit items in 2011 it will be a poor break. The 'value boxes or rack packs' seem to be the best value and are the best bang for the buck in my opinion.
However, for the price of retail right now I still think its a horrible break in comparison to the jumbos. Over the past 3 days, 2011 bowman retail is the hottest seller on ebay with the inclusion of Pineda and Harper autos, but the odds of hitting 1 of those 2 cards should make it a bad break overall. For those wanting to rush out like in 2010 and buy every Bowman retail thats on the shelves, save yourself the money and buy a box of jumbo or singles.
Pros of retail this year
+ Harper Auto
+ Pineda retail exclusive auto
+ Harper chromes
I'm going to use 2010 Bowman's odds which will hopefully be consistent with 2011 Bowman as well. In 2010 Bowman, no one really cared to pull an auto in retail as everyone was looking chromes of Strasburg and Harper. This year, one of the biggest draws is the auto class that is particularly strong. It's important to know that they do break the autos into groups and the better players are typically much tougher to pull.
BLASTERS
Most people think when busting retail, the best value is in the blasters. That may have been true for 2010 as everyone was just looking for chrome, but as far as the autos are concerned it is the worst possible break and its not close. The odds of pulling an auto of GROUP A in 2010 Bowmn was 1:88 packs. Yes, thats one in EIGHTY EIGHT PACKS, or 1:11 blasters (which would cost you $220 in blasters). The odds of pulling the better group of autos in group b was MUCH tougher. Group B autos were 1:3,200 packs or 1:400 blasters. If 2010 is any indication on how 2011 will be, avoid blasters like the plague.
GROUP A 1:88
GROUP B 1:3,200
Refractor 1:32
Purple Refractor 1:8
Blue Refractor 1:121
Gold Refractor 1:630
Orange Refractor 1:1282
RETAIL 24 CT
The retail 24 ct boxes have the exact same odds on chrome parallels but the auto odds were much better at 1 per box. For group A autos, it was 1:24 packs while group B was 1:1,400 packs. While the odds are better, its still just 1:58 boxes for Group B auto. Cases have been selling on ebay for $600 which works out to $50 per box for the chance at 1 BPA Auto.
GROUP A 1:24
GROUP B 1:1,400
Refractor 1:32
Purple Refractor 1:8
Blue Refractor 1:121
Gold Refractor 1:630
Orange Refractor 1:1282
BOWMAN VALUE PACKS 18 CT
This seems to be where the best value is so far if you're looking for parallels as well as auto odds. These are the 'rack packs' that come with 20 cards per pack and 18 packs per box. These are called 'value boxes' when you're searching online. One seller has a case of 'rack pack boxes' which are 6 box cases for $599 BIN which works out to $100 per box. Avoid that! Another seller has them listed as 'value boxes' and they seem to be the hottest seller right now on ebay for bowman and they would be hotter if people were aware they were rack pack boxes. They are selling for $69.96 and 40 of them have been sold in the past 24 hours so you can see its a hot commodity. The odds were much better than any other boxes in 2010 with a price point that was pretty close. Group A autos were 1:17, but Group B autos were 5:585. The best odds however came from the chrome parallels,
Refractor 1:12
Purple Refractor 1:4
Blue Refractor 1:36
Gold Refractor 1:192
Orange Refractor 1:387
In my opinion, after looking at 2010's odds, the 2011 blasters will be very poor value as a 16 box case of blasters only hit on average 1.5 autos last year per case. If you're looking for chrome cards like in 2010, it might have been the best break, but when autos are the key hit items in 2011 it will be a poor break. The 'value boxes or rack packs' seem to be the best value and are the best bang for the buck in my opinion.
However, for the price of retail right now I still think its a horrible break in comparison to the jumbos. Over the past 3 days, 2011 bowman retail is the hottest seller on ebay with the inclusion of Pineda and Harper autos, but the odds of hitting 1 of those 2 cards should make it a bad break overall. For those wanting to rush out like in 2010 and buy every Bowman retail thats on the shelves, save yourself the money and buy a box of jumbo or singles.
