Top Rookie WAR Leaders -- A few surprises...

I was looking at some front runners in the WAR department for ROY and I thought I would share w/ the board for comments and discussion...

AL

Alex Ogando - 2.9
Michael Pineda - 2.6
Dustin Ackley - 2.0
Josh Reddick - 1.9
Mark Trumbo - 1.8
Zach Britton - 1.7
Jordan Walden - 1.5
Ivan Nova - 1.3
Jeremy Hellickson - 1.2
Casper Wells - 1.1
J.P. Arencibia - 1.1

NL

Danny Espinosa - 3.0
Craig Kimbrel - 2.6
Cory Luebke - 1.9
Josh Collmenter - 1.9
Freddie Freeman - 1.8
Wilson Ramos - 1.8
Juan Guzman - 1.8
Vance Worley - 1.6
Juan Nicasio - 1.4
Mike Minor - 1.3
Justin Turner - 1.3
Darwin Barney - 1.3
Brandon Beachy - 1.2


Some thoughts --
I think Oganda and Pineda are the only real candidates in the AL. Ackley and Reddick have been great, and I think they both have bright futures, but they each have about 200 at-bats, and probably won't top 400 for the year. Oganda and Pindeda have both been great since April, and I think Oganda takes ROY.

In the NL, I think it should be noted that of the top 13 rookies, 4 play for the Braves, and it reminds me of all those Braves teams during the 90's full of young, exciting players with good management. I think Freddi Gonzalez deserves some credit for getting so much out of so many rookies. I'm not a big fan of Espinosa, but fangraphs.com has him down for 3 WAR based off of 5.4 RAR for fielding, and 2.1 RAR for baserunning. His 2.9 batting RAR is commendable, but not ROY-worthy in my mind. On the other hand, Freddie Freeman has a 19.6 batting RAR, which is really incredible considering his age and experience. However, despite rave reviews for his glove, Freddie has -7.2 RAR for defense, and a -2.3 RAR for baserunning. If he was considered league average at either metric, he would be the run away ROY favorite. That leaves us with Craig Kimbrel, who leads both leagues in saves. If I was a betting man, I would bet that Kimbrel wins ROY for several reasons: 1) he plays an important role on a play-off hopeful team, 2) he plays for a high profile team, and 3) his season has produced a good number of highlight worthy performances. None of the other top 5 candidates (besides maybe Freeman) has the same factors in their favor.

Let me know your thoughts...

It takes three years to compile enough data to have a big enough sample size for UZR, which is included in WAR. A rookie's WAR and UZR is flawed and should not be used exclusively to judge a player.

Freeman wins ROY.

Does Desmond Jennings have a large enough sample size to have a WAR yet? If so, what is his?

Joshua.Roundtree said:

Does Desmond Jennings have a large enough sample size to have a WAR yet? If so, what is his?

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It's 0.8 now, but it's pointless using it after 20 games.

How is the Vanimal not number one????

1st basemen UZR doesn't make any sense to me. It has Carlos Lee leading the league with Freeman second to last. It seems to be the only position where the eye test and the numbers don't really match at all.

Alexi Ogando is NOT rookie eligible.

I agree that the defensive side of these WAR metrics is not really reliable. I like Freeman and Pineda to win.

I'm kindof bummed that Brett Lawrie will probably lose his rookie eligibility (by getting more than 130 ABs) but will not have a shot at winning ROY because he's only gonna play less than two months.

vwnut13 said:

Alexi Ogando is NOT rookie eligible.

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Is Edinson Volquez?

They won't win the award, but Espinosa and Ramos are going to be fun players to watch develop over the next few years.

vwnut13 said:

Alexi Ogando is NOT rookie eligible.

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How is he not?

sportscardtheory said:

vwnut13 said:

Alexi Ogando is NOT rookie eligible.

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How is he not?

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Well, he appeared in 44 MLB games last year so I would assume that he was on the MLB roster for more than 45 days.

sportscardtheory said:

vwnut13 said:

Alexi Ogando is NOT rookie eligible.

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How is he not?

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B

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

I see Mark Trumbo winning the AL ROY...either Freeman or Kimbrel get it for the NL. My vote goes to Kimbrel. He's just downright filthy.

If I'm a Braves fan, I'm so pumped about which direction to team is heading. And who would've through with the crop of young players they have, Heyward is the disappointment.

Freeman's defense is top notch so I disagree with the defense rating.

Year Tm Lg Age Pos G GS CG Inn Ch PO A E DP Fld%
2011 ATL NL 21 1B 116 113 109 1032.2 1072 998 68 6 79 .994

Wes said:

sportscardtheory said:

vwnut13 said:

Alexi Ogando is NOT rookie eligible.

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How is he not?

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B

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

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Can anyone confirm he was on the 25-man roster for 45 or more days?

sportscardtheory said:

Can anyone confirm he was on the 25-man roster for 45 or more days?

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http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... &year=2010

77 days prior to September.

my vote goes to that Freeman kid

If Freeman keeps up his pace to date, I think he beats out Kimbrel. As several have mentioned, the defensive metrics are really iffy over a one year sample and still screwy for 1st basemen in general.

I bet Ackley wins the AL with a huge 6 week burst. Otherwise, it will be Pineda.