Are You Better Than a Professional Baseball Player?

[All The Hype]

Well then your high school league sucked, and AWFULLY sucked. B/c I played varsity as a hitter/pitcher for 3 years and I coached Varsity high school baseball for 3 years....and there were very few games where the starting pitcher (either my teammate/me/the kid I coached/my opponent) didn't touch 80 MPH with his fastball. Now 80 MPH for a high school pitcher, to me, is average. If you are sitting 84-85, then you are above average. If you are sitting above that, you can sign your name on the dotted line for some sort of scholarship to any school, it's that simple.

Sure there are kids that throw mid to low 70's, but they were on the weaker teams mostly.

I'm not trying to be mean but I've played at the highest level you can play without going pro...and I've coached high school ball, against a couple dozen baseball teams. I would say the average high school starter could easily hit an 80 MPH fastball.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

It certainly depends where you're coming from, but I the average in my HS conference was probably 70-78 range, with anything over that probably being the top 20% of pitchers.

As a side note, I played on a 5A high school team where 11 of us went on to play in college and 1 is in the Minors with the White Sox. We weren't scrubs and we certainly had just as much trouble hitting the better pitchers of 80-85 as anyone.

As a second side note, since everyone seems to be putting their credentials out there, I will too. I was an All State honorable mention high school pitcher and went on to pitch in college, and never threw harder than 85 in my life. I worked in the 79-82 range and people struggled to hit me to the point where my senior year ERA was below 1.00 and ended up in the state record books. If hitting a pitcher throwing 80 is that easy then why was I so successful?

Again, we'll have to agree to disagree, but the bottom line for me is that pitch speed estimation is so grossly overestimated these days that I think a lot of people would be embarrassed if they actually had to prove what they say they can pitch.

 

[Wes]

No way man...if you threw 80mph in most high schools, that would put you among the top 5% of pitchers in the conference (and even so, MOST high schoolers wouldn't be able to hit that effectively and consistently). I'd guess the average high school pitch speed to be about 72mph. I'd guess that the average high schooler can hit anything about 74 or lower with consistency, and anything above that takes one of the better hitting high schoolers (to hit it consistently).



Back to my point, there's a massive overestimation of pitch speed these days.

When you ask someone how hard they throw, you can basically plan on subtracting 7-12 mph from their answer to get the truth.


I mean, people have told me their 5'4" 11-year-old is hitting 79 on the radar gun. Let me help you out here: No he's not.
A) Sports Illustrated would be all over a story like that
B) His All Star team would have won the Little League World Series and probably the World Baseball Classic too, because at a pitching mound 46 feet away, that's equivalent to about 104 mph


Bottom line, humans are not radar guns, and I've found that most humans would make absolutely horrible radar guns if they tried.

Agreed. Having a radar gun sobers people up really quickly.

Sent from my Nexus S 4G using Sports Cards by Freedom Card Board.com

 

[markakis8]

I'm sorry, I just can't agree with anyone saying that 80 MPH is hard to hit. If you grew up playing baseball your whole life, 80 MPH, by the time you are on Varsity in high school, should be no problem. I've witnessed teammates of mine and players that I've coached, all who were below average (guys you wouldn't start every game), hit 80 MPH. And I'm talking about a pitcher who consistently throws 77-82 MPH....

I can't vouch for the "regional card" maybe in the midwest or central of the US the level of play is lower....I would hope that it wasn't, as a lot of great schools are located there, but I know the difference between 70, 80, and 90 MPH and 80 MPH is not that hard to hit.

 

[predatorkj]

We'll have to agree to disagree.

It certainly depends where you're coming from, but I the average in my HS conference was probably 70-78 range, with anything over that probably being the top 20% of pitchers.

As a side note, I played on a 5A high school team where 11 of us went on to play in college and 1 is in the Minors with the White Sox. We weren't scrubs and we certainly had just as much trouble hitting the better pitchers of 80-85 as anyone.

As a second side note, since everyone seems to be putting their credentials out there, I will too. I was an All State honorable mention high school pitcher and went on to pitch in college, and never threw harder than 85 in my life. I worked in the 79-82 range and people struggled to hit me to the point where my senior year ERA was below 1.00 and ended up in the state record books. If hitting a pitcher throwing 80 is that easy then why was I so successful?

Again, we'll have to agree to disagree, but the bottom line for me is that pitch speed estimation is so grossly overestimated these days that I think a lot of people would be embarrassed if they actually had to prove what they say they can pitch.

Don't come to Texas with that. You'll be on jv or lower for sure. Trust me.

 

[GiantsSuperCollector]

Don't come to Texas with that. You'll be on jv or lower for sure. Trust me.

Same in California, everyone that is at least average on varsity is at least hitting 80, with some guys going 85-87.

 

[Wes]

Same in California, everyone that is at least average on varsity is at least hitting 80, with some guys going 85-87.

That's an exaggeration. I played high school and college in California and there's no way that 80 was average. Each team in our league had 0-2 guys who could throw that hard (or harder) and it wasn't a lousy league by any means. Bring a radar gun with you to some of these high school games and you'll realize that what you're seeing as 85 is really 78. Average college velocity is like 84.

 

[NECpilgrims8]

I'm reading this argument and laughing. The back and forth on hard vs. easy is just comical, with some people really trying to flex some "muscle".

If you've been around quality baseball, you have a good approximation of pitch speed, but it isn't that easy. It also depends on whether you're seeing it thrown indoors vs. outdoors. I see this stuff every single day of my life and it's fun to see what people think.

I'll also say that Wes is completely right, but velocity isn't what makes hitting hard. It's the sequence of pitches, velocity/control/rotation of off speed stuff. An 84 MPH fastball is hittable with mediocre/bad off speed offerings. An 84 MPH fastball looks like 89 MPH with above average off speed pitches.

Again, I see this stuff every single day and run a summer team with 6 pitchers of the staff throwing 89-94 MPH.

 

[Huffamaniac]

Nope, but I would get on base more then twice by getting HBP

 

[thefatguy]

Nope, but I would get on base more then twice by getting HBP

If you got up after being drilled in the ribs from a 95 mph heater. The first time.

 

[markakis8]

I'm reading this argument and laughing. The back and forth on hard vs. easy is just comical, with some people really trying to flex some "muscle".

If you've been around quality baseball, you have a good approximation of pitch speed, but it isn't that easy. It also depends on whether you're seeing it thrown indoors vs. outdoors. I see this stuff every single day of my life and it's fun to see what people think.

I'll also say that Wes is completely right, but velocity isn't what makes hitting hard. It's the sequence of pitches, velocity/control/rotation of off speed stuff. An 84 MPH fastball is hittable with mediocre/bad off speed offerings. An 84 MPH fastball looks like 89 MPH with above average off speed pitches.

Again, I see this stuff every single day and run a summer team with 6 pitchers of the staff throwing 89-94 MPH.

Not sure anybody "flexed any more muscle" than you did. i don't think we are having a dick measuring contest - we were just listing our credentials to note the experience we have in the field so we don't come across as some tub of lard behind a computer not knowing what the hell they are talking about. Just as you did.

 

[NECpilgrims8]

Not sure anybody "flexed any more muscle" than you did. i don't think we are having a dick measuring contest - we were just listing our credentials to note the experience we have in the field so we don't come across as some tub of lard behind a computer not knowing what the hell they are talking about. Just as you did.

I am referring to the people thinking they know because they follow baseball. As far as I am concerned, based on what I directly know, only Wes and Skrip have actual knowledge on this topic. That's not to say that you don't have it yourself, but I don't know you from other internet warriors.

This topic still makes me laugh every time I see it though. Pure comedy.

 

[All The Hype]

That's an exaggeration. I played high school and college in California and there's no way that 80 was average. Each team in our league had 0-2 guys who could throw that hard (or harder) and it wasn't a lousy league by any means. Bring a radar gun with you to some of these high school games and you'll realize that what you're seeing as 85 is really 78. Average college velocity is like 84.

Exactly, I'm sure there are hot spots with multiple elite pitchers on the same team or in the same area but it's hilarious to hear someone say the AVERAGE is in the 80s. If that's true then 95% of all baseball players who play in college or beyond would be from Texas or California, which is obviously not even close to accurate.

Don't take our word for it though, go put a radar gun on some high school pitching and see for yourself that your "85" is really 78, like Wes has alluded to.

 

[markakis8]

I am referring to the people thinking they know because they follow baseball. As far as I am concerned, based on what I directly know, only Wes and Skrip have actual knowledge on this topic. That's not to say that you don't have it yourself, but I don't know you from other internet warriors.

This topic still makes me laugh every time I see it though. Pure comedy.

Well I coached at the high school level for three years after playing 5 years of college baseball (two D1, three NAIA). Again, this isn't me flexing my muscles, I'm just giving you my credentials so you know that I DO know what I'm talking about.

 

[predatorkj]

I'm reading this argument and laughing. The back and forth on hard vs. easy is just comical, with some people really trying to flex some "muscle".

If you've been around quality baseball, you have a good approximation of pitch speed, but it isn't that easy. It also depends on whether you're seeing it thrown indoors vs. outdoors. I see this stuff every single day of my life and it's fun to see what people think.

I'll also say that Wes is completely right, but velocity isn't what makes hitting hard. It's the sequence of pitches, velocity/control/rotation of off speed stuff. An 84 MPH fastball is hittable with mediocre/bad off speed offerings. An 84 MPH fastball looks like 89 MPH with above average off speed pitches.

Again, I see this stuff every single day and run a summer team with 6 pitchers of the staff throwing 89-94 MPH.

Not really sure why you think it's such an exaggeration. Truth is, if you're slow, you don't play varsity here. You just don't. Think I'm lying, why don't you nut up and come down to Texas. People take it seriously here. It's a big deal. And check out how many prospects come out of Texas high schools and colleges. Lot of great competition down here. I mean, Craig freaking Biggio coaches the St. Thomas high school varsity team. Sure the guy isn't a pitcher but when you have people like that coaching down here(or guys like Danny Coombs or even back in the day, Wayne Graham) you get really good coaches and a lot of kids, you can be picky and have only the best talent. Rocky Manual too. Lot of great people down here coaching these kids. You have to be able to play. This isn't some half ass place where you can just make the team by showing up.

 

[cgilmo]

I was a good high school hitter and an ok college one for a year, but i haven't been that guy in a long time.

 

[tramers]

In most sports I was GREAT ---------------------------------------- as a fan

 

[NECpilgrims8]

Not really sure why you think it's such an exaggeration. Truth is, if you're slow, you don't play varsity here. You just don't. Think I'm lying, why don't you nut up and come down to Texas. People take it seriously here. It's a big deal. And check out how many prospects come out of Texas high schools and colleges. Lot of great competition down here. I mean, Craig freaking Biggio coaches the St. Thomas high school varsity team. Sure the guy isn't a pitcher but when you have people like that coaching down here(or guys like Danny Coombs or even back in the day, Wayne Graham) you get really good coaches and a lot of kids, you can be picky and have only the best talent. Rocky Manual too. Lot of great people down here coaching these kids. You have to be able to play. This isn't some half ass place where you can just make the team by showing up.

Ok? I don't see how what you're saying has anything to do with what I wrote.

I completely agree that the "hotbeds" are the best competition (Cali, Florida, Texas). That's just common knowledge and indicative of the ability to play all year long. Hell, the draft and showcases clearly indicate and support that notion.

We operate in the northeast, where baseball is not exactly the same level as those "hotbeds. BUT, we still have our stud players playing at serious college levels (Moran, Panik, etc) and some players that completely overmatch the HS competition they play against (Fernelys, Nelson Rodriguez, Antonio, Jerez, etc).

All I was pointing out is that..... thinking you know what pitch velocity is by eyeball isn't as easy as it seems. Plus, just because you throw hard, doesn't make you a good pitcher or going to get batters out. That's all.

 

[ballerskrip]

That's an exaggeration. I played high school and college in California and there's no way that 80 was average. Each team in our league had 0-2 guys who could throw that hard (or harder) and it wasn't a lousy league by any means. Bring a radar gun with you to some of these high school games and you'll realize that what you're seeing as 85 is really 78. Average college velocity is like 84.

Average college velocity is 84? What? On our pitching staff, including all of the Freshman, walk-ons, etc, the average fastball was somewhere in the 87-89 range. With 4-5 guys consistenly 90+ (at any given time). On conference weekends we would VERY rarely see a pitcher in the mid 80's. When we would play the Valppraiso's of the world mid week, we would see some starters in the 83-86 mph range, and our team would flat out tee off on them.

Maybe just stating "college" might be the issue in discrepancy. College could mean Div III, JUCO, or The SEC. Very different talent levels all around.

 

[Wes]

Average college velocity is 84? What? On our pitching staff, including all of the Freshman, walk-ons, etc, the average fastball was somewhere in the 87-89 range. With 4-5 guys consistenly 90+ (at any given time). On conference weekends we would VERY rarely see a pitcher in the mid 80's. When we would play the Valppraiso's of the world mid week, we would see some starters in the 83-86 mph range, and our team would flat out tee off on them.

Maybe just stating "college" might be the issue in discrepancy. College could mean Div III, JUCO, or The SEC. Very different talent levels all around.

Average velocity in my statement doesn't mean what a guy can top out at. Matt Cain's average velocity is 90 MPH but he can touch 95. I can't speak to your pitching staff, but I've seen enough college baseball to know that most guys aren't sitting 87-89.

 

[dubts04]

Honestly pitching speed is not a huge deal in HS baseball. I mean sure if you have a guy who throws 90's or high 80's in hs you will win pretty much all of those games. But control is what really comes in to play. If you can control your fastball and you are able to control your off speed pitches well you dont need to be throwing high 80's and you can pitch high 70's and low 80's. Some of the best pitchers on my HS team threw mid 80's but had great breaking stuff and posted ERA's like .75 or .23. There was a guy who posted a .15 ERA when I was a freshman he threw low 80's but he could put the ball where ever he wanted to. If you can put the ball on the corners most high school hitters cannot touch those pitches. My senior year I caught for a kid who had a 4 seam fastball, 2 seam, curve, slider, changeup, and a knuckle. He maybe gave up 2 runs in all the games he pitched, a stud pitcher, but size didn't project him as a college pitcher. He plays at Oklahoma State now but doesn't really pitch for them, but was their leading hitter this year.