2011 Bowman Draft Picks Hobby Wrapper Odds

[Jaypers]

I just acquired the Hobby odds for 2011 BDP from a reliable source who has his cases in.

Some of these odds are just downright weird, and make me think Topps may have made a typo or two.


Base/USA Parallels

Bowman Blue - 1:17
Bowman Red - 1:7,410
Prospect Ref - 1:4 (not serial #d)
Blue Ref - 1:41
Gold Ref - 1:162
Orange Ref - 1:324
Red Ref - 1:1,620
Super - 1:7,410
Canary - 1:7,410
Printing Plate - 1:928

Autographs

AFLAC - 1:1,036 (as we suspected, with only 7 players, the odds are long)
Chrome Auto - 1:37
Chrome Ref Auto - 1:101
Chrome Blue Ref Auto - 1:337
Chrome Gold Ref Auto - 1:1,004
Chrome Orange Ref Auto - 1:2,008
Chrome Purple Ref Auto - 1:5,050
Chrome Red Ref Auto - 1:10,150
Chroms Superfractor Auto - 1:47,200
Printing Plate - 1:120,000 (Huh? I'm thinking Topps may have added one too many zeroes)
Bryce Harper Bowman Green Auto - 1:6,500
60th Anniversary Auto - 1:9,097
USA Base Auto - 1:763 (This is just weird - it's rarer than the Ref Auto?)
USA Ref Auto - 1:410
USA Blue Ref Auto - 1:825
USA Gold Ref Auto - 1:1,635
USA Orange Ref Auto - 1:3,273
USA Purple Ref Auto - 1:8,176
USA Red Ref Auto - 1:16,348
USA Superfractor Auto - 1:82,191
USA Printing Plate Auto - 1:20,280

Jumbo Patches - 1:7,700
"Futures Game" Patches - 1:38,000
MLB Logo Patch - 1:38,000
Bryce Harper Auto Relic Futures Game - 1:23,660
Harper Auto Relic Blue (/50) - 1:32,500
Harper Auto Relic Gold (/25) - 1:65,000
Harper Auto Relic Green (/5) - 1:312,000
Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000 (yikes)

Ok - SeattleSports - get to it! :mrgreen:

 

[Jaypers]

Oh and btw, you definitely do not get 1 parallel per pack, as the sell sheets said. They must have been referring to the Retail packs, which will likely contain 1 Gold per.

 

[SeattleSports]

I'll be done in a few, here's a teaser!

2010 in bold

Blue Ref - 1:411:40
Gold Ref - 1:1621:160
Orange Ref - 1:3241:320
Red Ref - 1:1,6201:1,600
Super - 1:7,4101:6,475
Printing Plate - 1:928 1:811

Chrome Auto - 1:37 1:38
Chrome Ref Auto - 1:101 1:95
Chrome Blue Ref Auto - 1:337 1:320
Chrome Gold Ref Auto - 1:1,0041:990
Chrome Orange Ref Auto - 1:2,0081:2065
Chrome Red Ref Auto - 1:10,1501:9,650
Chrome Superfractor Auto - 1:47,2001:44,025

Keep in mind, those numbers couple with 2 more prospect autos than 2010 BDP.

Cases should be around 5,500. Last year was around 5,300.

 

[Jaypers]

Without looking too far into it, this is the biggest production ever for BDP.

I was afraid of that. Oh well, at least the overall crop is better.

 

[mredsox89]

Bowman Blue - 1:17--16.94
Prospect Ref - 1:4--72
Blue Ref - 1:41--7
Gold Ref - 1:162--1.7
Orange Ref - 1:324--.89
Red Ref - 1:1,620--every 5.5+ cases
Super - 1:7,410--every 29+ cases
Printing Plate - 1:928--every 3 case

Autographs

AFLAC - 1:1,036--every 3.5 cases
Chrome Auto - 1:37--7.78
Chrome Ref Auto - 1:101--2.85
Chrome Blue Ref Auto - 1:337--.85
Chrome Gold Ref Auto - 1:1,004--.29

11.48 base/ref/blue autos
.52 gold+ autos

 

[SeattleSports]

Without looking too far into it, this is the biggest production ever for BDP.

I was afraid of that. Oh well, at least the overall crop is better.

Not by much though, but still higher than the previous years.

 

[Wes]

Good info, I'll have mine on Wednesday.

 

[SeattleSports]

It also depends on how you look at it,

2008 BDP had 18 autos, 34 in 2011 BDP.

BUT, because of the limited amount of autos, the odds of pulling parallel autos were tougher,

Autograph Chrome Prospect 1:38
Autograph Chrome Prospect Refractor 1:118
Autograph Chrome Prospect Xfractor 1:270
Autograph Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor: 1:396
Autograph Chrome Prospect Gold Refractor: 1:1,258
Autograph Chrome Prospect Orange Refractor 1:2,700
Autograph Chrome Prospect Red Refractor 1:11,017
Autograph Chrome Prospect Superfractor 1:55,736

So when comparing 2011 and 2008, 2008 had only 3500 cases or so, but the odds of pulling parallel autos were much tougher.

With that being said, production #'s wont hurt this set, it's success is reliant on the draft class. If it is the 'deepest draft class' in many years and 2011 BDP reflects that, then even with more cases produced it could actually be a better bust than earlier drafts with less cases, but tougher odds.

 

[SeattleSports]

2009 Bowman Draft odds - 22 autos in the set

Autograph Chrome Prospect 1:34
Autograph Chrome Prospect Refractor 1:71
Autograph Chrome Prospect Xfractor 1:159
Autograph Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor: 1:241
Autograph Chrome Prospect Gold Refractor: 1:736
Autograph Chrome Prospect Orange Refractor 1:1,545
Autograph Chrome Prospect Red Refractor 1:6,378
Autograph Chrome Prospect Superfractor 1:31,900

Cases produced, 2450

Obviously one of the least produced sets, amazing odds for color, but the draft class left a lot to be desired.

 

[SeattleSports]

2008: 3,500 cases - 17 autos
2009: 2,450 cases - 22 autos
2010: 5,300 cases - 32 autos
2011: 5,500 cases - 34 autos

Based on the draft class, amount of autos in relation to cases produced. 2011 should blow 2010 Bowman Draft out of the water.

Compare 2008 and 2011, 3,500 cases with 17 autos in the set. Doubling the quantity of autos in 2011 with 34, it would have to be closer to 7000 cases to have the same ratio of color autos.

I was on the fence prior to the pack odds, but as long as the draft class performs like its being hailed, this could be a helluva bust.

 

[cmnkb8]

Hellooooo lower case prices?

 

[Ndepaul99]

if the Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000, and you take that number an divide it by 288 packs, since it is a 1/1, i get 4,013 cases produced unless im doing something wrong

 

[Erich]

if the Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000, and you take that number an divide it by 288 packs, since it is a 1/1, i get 4,013 cases produced unless im doing something wrong

I thought it was announced that Harper was retail and hobby. maybe not for a red though.

 

[Ndepaul99]

if the Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000, and you take that number an divide it by 288 packs, since it is a 1/1, i get 4,013 cases produced unless im doing something wrong

I thought it was announced that Harper was retail and hobby. maybe not for a red though.

im pretty sure the auto relics are hobby only

 

[Jaypers]

if the Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000, and you take that number an divide it by 288 packs, since it is a 1/1, i get 4,013 cases produced unless im doing something wrong

I thought it was announced that Harper was retail and hobby. maybe not for a red though.

According to the sell sheets, all Harper Auto Relics are Hobby only.

 

[Ndepaul99]

if the Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000, and you take that number an divide it by 288 packs, since it is a 1/1, i get 4,013 cases produced unless im doing something wrong

I thought it was announced that Harper was retail and hobby. maybe not for a red though.

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION

BRYCE HARPER AUTOGRAPH RELIC CARDS - Hobby Exclusive!
The best souvenir from the 2011 MLB Futures Game - sensation Bryce Harper rainbow foil cards featuring an autograph and a Futures Game jersey relic numbered to 69.
Paralleled in the following versions:
- Red: ONE OF ONE
- Green: Numbered to 5
- Gold: Numbered to 25
- Blue: Numbered to 50

so if this is correct i get only 4,013 cases made by taking the 1/1 and dividing the odds by 288 packs per case, let me know

 

[Erich]

if the Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000, and you take that number an divide it by 288 packs, since it is a 1/1, i get 4,013 cases produced unless im doing something wrong

I thought it was announced that Harper was retail and hobby. maybe not for a red though.

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION

BRYCE HARPER AUTOGRAPH RELIC CARDS - Hobby Exclusive!
The best souvenir from the 2011 MLB Futures Game - sensation Bryce Harper rainbow foil cards featuring an autograph and a Futures Game jersey relic numbered to 69.
Paralleled in the following versions:
- Red: ONE OF ONE
- Green: Numbered to 5
- Gold: Numbered to 25
- Blue: Numbered to 50

so f this is correct i get only 4,013 cases made by taking the 1/1 and dividing the odds by 288 packs per case, let me know

I need to read better, I missed the RELIC part.

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

if the Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000, and you take that number an divide it by 288 packs, since it is a 1/1, i get 4,013 cases produced unless im doing something wrong

I thought it was announced that Harper was retail and hobby. maybe not for a red though.

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION

BRYCE HARPER AUTOGRAPH RELIC CARDS - Hobby Exclusive!
The best souvenir from the 2011 MLB Futures Game - sensation Bryce Harper rainbow foil cards featuring an autograph and a Futures Game jersey relic numbered to 69.
Paralleled in the following versions:
- Red: ONE OF ONE
- Green: Numbered to 5
- Gold: Numbered to 25
- Blue: Numbered to 50

so if this is correct i get only 4,013 cases made by taking the 1/1 and dividing the odds by 288 packs per case, let me know

What are you trying to do with that math? 1560000 / 288 = 5416 not 4,013. Every number so far proves out a 5,400 - 5,600 cases.

 

[Ndepaul99]

if the Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000, and you take that number an divide it by 288 packs, since it is a 1/1, i get 4,013 cases produced unless im doing something wrong

I thought it was announced that Harper was retail and hobby. maybe not for a red though.

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION

BRYCE HARPER AUTOGRAPH RELIC CARDS - Hobby Exclusive!
The best souvenir from the 2011 MLB Futures Game - sensation Bryce Harper rainbow foil cards featuring an autograph and a Futures Game jersey relic numbered to 69.
Paralleled in the following versions:
- Red: ONE OF ONE
- Green: Numbered to 5
- Gold: Numbered to 25
- Blue: Numbered to 50

so if this is correct i get only 4,013 cases made by taking the 1/1 and dividing the odds by 288 packs per case, let me know

What are you trying to do with that math? 1560000 / 288 = 5416 not 4,013. Every number so far proves out a 5,400 - 5,600 cases.

i stand corrected, dam fat fingers and bad calculator lol

 

[Pine Tar]

I will buy my one Hobby box of this like I do every year. But this year I will hit the Harper relic auto in that 1 box :lol: