2012 Bowman Draft Picks - HOBBY & JUMBO WRAPPER ODDS

[shayscards79]

what about the aflac cards? are they signed?

edit: just found this

AFLAC, Perfect Game & Under Armour Autographs Set Checklist
Featuring players from past High School All-American Games; Serial Numbered

1 Lucas Sims
2 David Dahl
3 Addison Russell
4 Lucas Giolito
5 Joey Gallo
6 Keon Barnum
7 Max Fried
8 Courtney Hawkins
9 Ty Hensley
10 Gavin Cecchini
11 Stryker Trahan
12 Byron Buxton
13 Carlos Correa
14 Kevin Gausman
15 Michael Zunino

Wonder what the odds are on those. Probably one or two a case like a couple of years ago.

 

[Jaypers]

Here's a picture of the back of a Hobby wrapper. No odds for AFLAC/UA/PG autos, Purple Ice or Contest cards on it, for some reason. Maybe they ran out of room?

 

[WaxPax]

JP, any odds of jumbo wrappers from your contact?

Here's a picture of the back of a Hobby wrapper. No odds for AFLAC/UA/PG autos, Purple Ice or Contest cards on it, for some reason. Maybe they ran out of room?

View attachment 8545

 

[Jaypers]

JP, any odds of jumbo wrappers from your contact?

I believe he'll be ripping today, not sure. Will post when I find out the odds.

 

[vwnut13]

These Odds don't make sense.

Futures Game Relic #/199 - 1:345
Futures Game Patch #/25 - 1:3415
Futures Game logo Patch 1/1 - 1:33500
Futures Game MLB Patch 1/1 - 1:33500

 

[Bob Loblaw]

These Odds don't make sense.

Futures Game Relic #/199 - 1:345
Futures Game Patch #/25 - 1:3415
Futures Game logo Patch 1/1 - 1:33500
Futures Game MLB Patch 1/1 - 1:33500

One would assume the checklist is different for the Relics, Patches, and 1/1s.

 

[WaxPax]

FYI Rookie Chrome Auto's, so who's on that RC check list...Real long odds there

Super 1: 1,251,840
Red 1:178,700
Purple 1:50,000
Orange 1: 36,000

Base 1:6700

No listing for Ref/Blue & Gold?

 

[Jaypers]

FYI Rookie Chrome Auto's, so who's on that RC check list...Real long odds there

Harper and Darvish are the only two.

 

[jbhofmann]

FYI Rookie Chrome Auto's, so who's on that RC check list...Real long odds there

Super 1: 1,251,840
Red 1:178,700
Purple 1:50,000
Orange 1: 36,000

Base 1:6700

No listing for Ref/Blue & Gold?

So in the 50 case break Boomo might hit 2 base RC autos or 1 ref RC auto?

 

[WaxPax]

Ref/Blue & gold no odds listed, so are these even being produced?

So in the 50 case break Boomo might hit 2 base RC autos or 1 ref RC auto?

 

[Jaypers]

Here are the Jumbo odds.


Paper
blue 1:11
orange 1:22
red 1:4800
red ice 1:30
plate 1:1270

Chrome
refractor 1:4
blue refractor 1:22
gold refractor 1:102
orange refractor 1:204
red refractor 1:1,200
superfractor 1:5,800
plate 1:1,270

RC Auto
base 1:1,125
orange refractor 1:6,000
purple refractor 1:15,000
red refractor 1:25,000
superfractor 1:75,816

auto 1:7
refractor auto 1:15
blue refractor auto 1:49
gold refractor auto 1:148
orange refractor auto 1:296
purple refractor auto 1:744
red auto 1:1,487
super auto 1:7,584
plate 1:1,850

auto dual top 10 picks 1:1,185
bowman black auto 1:474
bbest die cuts - ref 1:195, xfractor 1:750, atomic 1:16,000
futures relic 1:220
futures patch 1:2,155
futures logo patch 1:21,000
futures game patch 1:21,000

 

[WaxPax]

So the quick math says what...Jumbo is 6x better in odds?

Hobby
auto 1:41
refractor auto 1:90
blue auto 1:299
gold auto 1:893
orange auto 1:1,788
purple auto 1:4,459
red auto 1:8,950
super auto 1;42,750

Jumbo
auto 1:7
refractor auto 1:15
blue refractor auto 1:49
gold refractor auto 1:148
orange refractor auto 1:296
purple refractor auto 1:744
red auto 1:1,487
super auto 1:7,584

 

[WaxPax]

Here is the RC breakdown....would seem RC's seeded more heavily in Jumbo

Hobby

Base 1:6700
Orange 1: 36,000
Purple 1:50,000
Red 1:178,700
Super 1: 1,251,840

Jumbo

RC Auto
base 1:1,125
orange refractor 1:6,000
purple refractor 1:15,000
red refractor 1:25,000
superfractor 1:75,816

 

[morgoth]

In the past Bowman issues RC autos were used as the 3rd auto and sometimes the second. At least here you will be happy to get those green autos

 

[masonphillip]

This further illustrates the total absurdity of something like [phil]350647614756[/phil]

As Jim pointed out earlier, the average is going to be 9 base, 4 refractors and 1 blue for the base ref blue ref lots.

A guy like Almoras lot sells for $1275, if you assume the average pull AND $30 a base, $50 a ref and $120 a blue which I think is pretty generous...you get $590 worth of autos.

You'd have to beat the odds x 2 to get even close to the auction value back and the chance of doing that over 50 cases is poor, very poor.

 

[All In Cards]

and cases are up, I am seeing $750 now

 

[craftysouthpaw]

Here is the RC breakdown....would seem RC's seeded more heavily in Jumbo

Hobby

Base 1:6700
Orange 1: 36,000
Purple 1:50,000
Red 1:178,700
Super 1: 1,251,840

Jumbo

RC Auto
base 1:1,125
orange refractor 1:6,000
purple refractor 1:15,000
red refractor 1:25,000
superfractor 1:75,816

It's comparing apples to oranges to say Jumbo has 6x better odds than Hobby as there are 288 packs in a Hobby case and only 96 in a Jumbo case.

My math shows a Hobby case gets you:

7 base autos
3.2 refractor autos
.96 blue refractor autos
.32 gold refractor autos
.16 orange refractor autos
.005 purple/red/super autos
.05 RC base auto
2016 total cards

Jumbo gets:

13.7 base
6.4 refractors
1.96 blue
.65 gold
.32 orange
.01 purple/red/super
.09 RC base
3072 total cards

So is it me or does it seem much more prudent to buy 2 cases of Hobby, save $250, get the same number of autos and color, and 1000 more base cards? What am I missing?

 

[morgoth]

It's comparing apples to oranges to say Jumbo has 6x better odds than Hobby as there are 288 packs in a Hobby case and only 96 in a Jumbo case.

My math shows a Hobby case gets you:

7 base autos
3.2 refractor autos
.96 blue refractor autos
.32 gold refractor autos
.16 orange refractor autos
.005 purple/red/super autos
.05 RC base auto
2016 total cards

Jumbo gets:

13.7 base
6.4 refractors
1.96 blue
.65 gold
.32 orange
.01 purple/red/super
.09 RC base
3072 total cards

So is it me or does it seem much more prudent to buy 2 cases of Hobby, save $250, get the same number of autos and color, and 1000 more base cards? What am I missing?

Carpel Tunnel?

 

[craftysouthpaw]

Carpel Tunnel?

Good point. Or an extra 1000 base cards to throw away.

 

[WaxPax]

Yea, didn't have time to do the math before, but using a baseline of $700 per hobby case comes to $2.43 per pack & a baseline of $1400 per Jumbo case comes to $14.58 per pack...2.43 * 6 (6x better odds)= 14.58, means it's a wash...less the 1000 base cards